By Dr. Ghulam Rasul Chief Meteorologist Pakistan Meteorological Department [email protected] Flood Management and Climatic Impacts on Water Resources.

by

Dr. Ghulam RasulChief Meteorologist

Pakistan Meteorological [email protected]

Flood Management and Climatic Impacts on

Water Resources in Pakistan

LEAD Pakistan Leadership Develop Programme (LDP)-Cohort 18

3rd Learning Session on Climatic Impacts and Disaster in Water 1-5 June 2015, Regent Plaza Hotel & Convention Centre, Karachi

PMDPMDPMDPMD

Seismology

Meteorology

Hydrology

LINKAGE TO OTHER MINISTRIESLINKAGE TO OTHER MINISTRIESAVIATION METEOROLOGICAL

SERVICESAVIATION DIVISION

FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICESMINISTRY OF WATER &

POWER

AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICESMINISTRY OF FOOD

SECURITY & RESEARCH

NEW MOON PREDICTION & ASTRONOMICAL DATA ANALYSIS MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUS

AFFAIRSR & D /RENEWABLE ENERGY

RESOURCES MINISTRY OF SCIENCE& TECHNOLOGY

FORECASTING & CLIMATOLOGY CLIMATE CHANGE DIVISION &DISASTER MITIGATION

ORGANIZATIONS

•Islamabad•Karachi•Lahore•Multan•Peshawar •Quetta

Regional Forecasting CentresFlood Forecasting Division

Total 39 Rain Gauges

Total 57 Rain Gauges

Total 70 Rain Gauges Total 120 Rain Gauges

•Islamabad•Karachi•Lahore•Mangla•Sialkot •R.Y.Khan

Radar Network of PMD

RADAR NETWORK OF PMD5 cm radar at Islamabad

10 cm radar at FFD Lahore Area covered by Doppler radar at Lahore

DIKIBD

RHK

KHI

LHR

ISLAMABAD RADAR OUTPUT ACCESSIBLE THROUGH PMD WEBSITE(Updated after every 10 minutes)

NATIONWIDE RADAR NETORK OUTPUT ACCESSIBLE THROUGH PMD WEBSITE(Half hourly update)

PAKISTANPAKISTANPAKISTANPAKISTAN

INDIAINDIAINDIAINDIA

AFGHANISTANAFGHANISTANAFGHANISTANAFGHANISTAN

INDUS

Chenab

Jhelum

Beas

Sutlej

Ravi

Pakistan’s Cryospheric AssetsPakistan’s Cryospheric AssetsNumber of

GlaciersArea of Glaciers

(km2)Volume of Ice

(km3)Ranges

7259 11780 2066 HKH

Cryosphere Monitoring Network of PakistanCryosphere Monitoring Network of Pakistan

Glimpses of Glacier Monitoring Stations in Northern Glimpses of Glacier Monitoring Stations in Northern PakistanPakistan

Askoli, Shigar Valley 2015 m a.s.lAskoli, Shigar Valley 2015 m a.s.l Passu Ghar, Passu Glacier 3200 m a.s.l

Urdukas, Baltoro Glacier 3926 m a.s.l Patundas, Passu Glacier 4335 m a.s.l,

EXISTING TELEMETRIC RAIN & RIVER STATIONS

(METEORBURST COMMUNICATION)

Flood/Tsunami/Tropical Flood/Tsunami/Tropical Cyclone Forecasting ModelsCyclone Forecasting Models

• IFAS Model- IFAS Model- developed in collaboration developed in collaboration with Japanese ICHARMwith Japanese ICHARM

• FEWS Model- FEWS Model- Adopted from NESPAKAdopted from NESPAK• WEB-DHMS Model- WEB-DHMS Model- Tokyo UniversityTokyo University• Storm Track Model- Storm Track Model- CSIRO AustraliaCSIRO Australia• Wave Model- Wave Model- MRI JapanMRI Japan• WRF & COSMO Model- for research on WRF & COSMO Model- for research on

αα, , ββ, , γγ meso-scale phenomenameso-scale phenomena

1. Federal Minister, Water & Power, Islamabad.2. Governor (All Provinces).3. Chairman NDMA, Islamabad.4. Chief Minister (All Provinces).5. Secretary, Aviation Division, Islamabad.6. Secretary, Ministry of Water & Power, Islamabad.7. Secretary, Ministry of Information, Islamabad.8. Chairman NHA, Islamabad.9. Chief Secretary (All Provinces & AJK).10. PDMA’S (D.G’S, All Provinces & AJK).11. Administrator & Chief Secretary, Gilgit-Baltistan.12. Chairman, Indus River System Authority, Islamabad.13. Chairman, Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad.14. Relief Commissioner, (All Provinces & A.J.K).15. The Secretary General, Red Crescent, Islamabad.16. Secretary, Irrigation Department, (All Provinces).17. D.G. Engineers, Eng. Directorate GHQ, Rawalpindi18. D.G. Relief, (All Provinces).19. D.G. Emergency Relief Cell, Cabinet Division, Islamabad.20. Chief Engineer, Mangla/Tarbela/Chashma.21. Chief Engineer, Irrigation (All Provinces).22. Chief Engineer, (All Barrages).23. Chief Engineer, C.D.O. (Muzaffarabad).24. Commissioner for Indus Waters, Lahore.25. All other concerned.

Flood Warning Dissemination

Managing Climate Extremes and Disasters in Asia: IPCC SREX Report

Number of Disasters and damages due to weather and climate in recent past history

History of Climate related Disasters in History of Climate related Disasters in PakistanPakistan

• Pakistan Floods Pakistan Floods (1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, (1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 1994, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 1994, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 20142014))

• Pakistan Floods 2010:Pakistan Floods 2010: (Around 2000 people died and over 20  (Around 2000 people died and over 20 million affected)million affected)

• 2007 Cyclone Yemyin July 2007: 2007 Cyclone Yemyin July 2007: 730 people died, some 350,000 730 people died, some 350,000

people were displaced, 1.5m affected and more than 2 m livestock people were displaced, 1.5m affected and more than 2 m livestock perished.perished.

•   • Tropical cyclone Tropical cyclone Gonu (2007Gonu (2007), ), Phet 2010Phet 2010, also proved devastating , also proved devastating

in the recent past history of Pakistan in the recent past history of Pakistan

• 1998-2002 Drought: 1998-2002 Drought: At least 1.2 million people in Balochistan At least 1.2 million people in Balochistan were affected by drought, and over hundreds of people died, were affected by drought, and over hundreds of people died, mostly because of dehydration, Millions of animals perished.mostly because of dehydration, Millions of animals perished.

Images of Pakistan Floods 2010-2014Images of Pakistan Floods 2010-2014

Sindh:201Sindh:20111

KP 2010 Sindh 2011 Punjab 2012

Balochistan 2013 Punjab 2014

Extent of Monsoon Currents

Moisture Flux

2525

Pakistan’s Water Resources - Pakistan’s Water Resources - FactsFacts

IRS Inflows (1976 to 2010)IRS Inflows (1976 to 2010)

Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela)Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela)

Original Original : 18.4 MAF: 18.4 MAF (≈ 12.6 % of Average Annual Flows)(≈ 12.6 % of Average Annual Flows)

Year 2001Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF: 14.1 MAF (≈ 9.6 % of Average Annual Flows)(≈ 9.6 % of Average Annual Flows)

Present Present : 15.45 MAF: 15.45 MAF (≈ 10.53 % of Average Annual Flows)(≈ 10.53 % of Average Annual Flows)

Relative Storage Capacity of some countriesRelative Storage Capacity of some countriesPakistanPakistan 30 Days 30 Days (after Mangla Raising) (after Mangla Raising)

IndiaIndia 120 (1980s)-325 Days120 (1980s)-325 Days

EgyptEgypt 700 Days700 Days

USA USA 900 Days900 Days

Annual In Kharif( Apr-Sep)

In Rabi( Oct-Mar)

Average (1976 to 2010) 146.64 MAF 82% 18%

Maximum (in 2010) 248.45 MAF

Minimum (in 2001-02) 98.51 MAF

Pakistan has second

highest Risk factor

regarding floods after Bangladesh

CYCLONE - Another Threat

THREATS by Changing Climate

Climate Change

- Seasonal Shifts- Glaciers Melting- Sea Level Rise- Drought- Extreme Weather Events

Frequency/Intensity of Heat/Cold WavesTorrential Rains/LandslidesTropical Cyclones

Societal ImpactsAgriculture

EnergyWaterHealth

Climate Change, caused by Natural and Human Activities, is now widely recognized as the major environmental problem facing the Planet Earth

Regions/Tracks of TC/Hurricanes/Typhoons 1901-2010

Typhoons HurricanesTropical Cyclones

80%NH

20%SH

Equator

Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in Indian Ocean

•

MayMay JunJun SepSep OctOct NovNov

Bay of BengalBay of Bengal

Cyclonic StormCyclonic Storm 5959 3535 4040 8989 114114

Severe Cyc. StormSevere Cyc. Storm 4242 55 1616 3838 6363

Arabian SeaArabian Sea

Cyclonic StormCyclonic Storm 2929 3535 44 2424 2020

Severe Cyc. StormSevere Cyc. Storm 2323 2727 22 1111 1515

Comparison of Sea Surface Temperature for Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

(2000 - 2014)

Arabian sea is showing higher SST values compared to Bay of Bengal since

2000

BOBArb Sea

Frequency of Tropical Storms in Arabian Sea

Average Physical Exposure to Tropical Cyclones, assuming constant hazard, in thousand of people per year

IPCC SREX Report’s Findings (Tropical Cyclones)

Jan

Feb

Snow Maxima is shifting towards February

Snow Residency Period is Shrinking

Black Carbon

Name of Glacier

Length(km)

Aspect

Carbon

(ng/m2)

Diameter

(micron)

Hinarchi 17 S 224 131

Hisper 53 NW 161 212

Minapin 16 N 192 401

Gutumi 14 W 105 203

Bualtar 20 NW 63 116

Historical GLOF floods in Gilgit-Historical GLOF floods in Gilgit-BaltistanBaltistan

Year Date Glacier River1929 ? Chung Khumdan Shyok1932 ? Chung Khumdan Shyok1973 ? Batura Hunza1974 ? Batura Hunza1977 ? Balt Bare Hunza1978 September Darkot/Barados Gilgit1999 6-Aug Khalti/Gupis Gilgit2000 10-Jun Shimshal Hunza2000 27-Jul Kand/Hushe Indus2007 5-Apr Ghulkin Hunza2008 6-Jan Passu Hunza2008 2-Apr Ghulkin Hunza2008 22-May Ghulkin Hunza2008 24-May Ghulkin Hunza2008 14/15 June Ghulkin Hunza2009 26-Mar Ghulkin Hunza

David Archer GTZ/WAPDA August 2001, UNDP Report 2007, NARC Report 2008, Focus Humanitarian Assistance and Pamir times

Climate Projections Climate Projections for for

2121stst Century Century

Decadal Mean Precipitation (mm) Change RCP 4.5 Decadal Mean Precipitation (mm) Change RCP 4.5

Expected Change in Mean annual cycle of monthly Expected Change in Mean annual cycle of monthly temperature (temperature (◦◦C) and rainfall (mm/day) compared with 1981-C) and rainfall (mm/day) compared with 1981-

2010 Average2010 Average

CONCLUSION

• All indicators suggest that water cycle variability will be the greatest challenge in changing climate

Too much water and too little water

Way ForwardWay Forward

• Improvement of Observation NetworkImprovement of Observation Network• Forests can reverse the climate change process even Forests can reverse the climate change process even

under global warmingunder global warming

• Enhance water storageEnhance water storage

• Coordination among Research GroupsCoordination among Research Groups

• Establishment of Water Environment ForumEstablishment of Water Environment Forum

• Scientific research on future of water Scientific research on future of water resources must become part of policy resources must become part of policy formulation formulation

• Mobilization of AcademiaMobilization of Academia

Thank You