Chaos and Confidence Weather Forecasting Competition By Carlo Cafaro Ioannis Katharopoulos University of Reading Imperial College London, 14 th December 2016
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Chaos and Confidence Weather Forecasting Competition
By
Carlo Cafaro Ioannis Katharopoulos
University of Reading
Imperial College London, 14th December 2016
Ladies and gentlemen, good evening! Tomorrow there is the final day of the cricket match in Manchester, so let’s see how weather will affect this important event.
We will illustrate first the weather forecast in early morning and then we will focus on Manchester for the match time.
Manchester
What : Moderate rain in these 3 hours.
How likely is this event ?
60 – 80 %
40 – 60 % 20 – 40 %
10 – 20 % 0 – 10 % elsewhere
ciao
When: 4 am – 7 am
Monday 4 – 7 am
Manchester
How likely is this event ? 80 – 100 % 60 - 80 % 40 – 60 % 20 – 40 % 10 – 20 % 0 – 10 % elsewhere
When: 4 am – 7 am
What : Light rain in these 3 hours.
Monday 4 – 7 am
Manchester
How likely is this
event ?
80 – 90 % 60 – 80 % 40 – 60 % 20 – 40 % 10 – 20 % 0 – 10 % elsewhere
When: 7 am – 10 am
What : Moderate rain in these 3 hours.
Monday 4 – 7 am
How likely is this event ? 80 – 100 % 60 - 80 % 40 – 60 % 20 – 40 % 10 – 20 % 0 – 10 % elsewhere
Manchester
What : Light rain in these 3 hours.
When: 7 am – 10 am
Where: Manchester What: Total rain in these 3 hours
Light rain
Moderate rain
LIKELIHOOD OF EACH SCENARIO
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Manchester
When: 10 am – 1 pm
Manchester
Light rain
Moderate rain
LIKELIHOOD OF EACH SCENARIO
Where: Manchester What: Total rain in these 3 hours
When: 1 pm – 4 pm
Manchester
Light rain
Moderate rain
No rain
LIKELIHOOD OF EACH SCENARIO
Where: Manchester What: Total rain in these 3 hours
When: 4 pm – 7 pm
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