BushfireConf2015 - 1. Be prepared: climate change and the NSW bushfire threat.

Be prepared: climate change & the NSW

bushfire threat

Lesley Hughes

• Global – Australian – NSW climate context

• Projections for fire risk

• Implications for biodiversity & management

data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

Observed global temperatures

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We are here

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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 4oC

Observed temperatures in NSW

No. days each year when Australia area-averaged daily mean temperature is above 99th percentile (1910-2013) (CSIRO & BoM 2014)

Observed rainfall trends(1997-2013 relative to 1900-2013)

October-April April-September

CSIRO & BoM 2015

Observed trends in FFDI (1973-2010)

Projected temperatures(high emissions scenario)

Current climate Late 21st century

CSIRO & BoM 2015

Potential heat exposure

199020502100

IPCC 2014, Chapt 25

Potential heat exposure

2030

2070

Environment similar

Environment different

Future habitats

Bushfires in NSW

Climate change and fire activity

Ignitions Fuel load Fuel condition Weather

Fire season is lengthening in NSW

• Fire season starting earlier, lasting longer

• 2014: 55 Local Government areas in NSW declared earlier start to bushfire season (August or Sept cf Oct)

Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook: 2014-15

Source: Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC

NSW bushfire projections

2020-2039

NSW bushfire projections

2060-2079

Bushfire impacts in NSW: health & economy

• >100 deaths since 1926

• Reduced air quality: Oct 2013 air quality levels in Sydney region were 50 x worse than normal; 228 admitted for breathing difficulties; 124% increased asthma

• 2014: total economic

costs of NSW bushfires ~$43 million; projected to be 3x by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics 2014)

Bushfire impacts in NSW: ecological

• Reduced water quality in catchments

• Obligate seeders and long generation time plants vulnerable compared to vegetative reproducers and short-lived

• Sessile or low mobility animals at risk

Implications for managers

• Hotter & more frequent fires will drive significant changes in the structure & composition of ecological communities

• Declining seed banks and changed habitats may result in local extinctions of some species

Implications for managers (cont)

• e.g. 2012-13: largest ever hazard reduction program in national parks: 330 separate burns, >205,000 ha burnt

• NSW population projected to grow from 7.4 million (2013) to 12.6 million (2061)

• Increasing pressure of management agencies for more hazard reduction at urban-bushland interface

Resources

NARCLiM website

http://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-for-NSW/About-NARCliM

Resources

CSIRO & BoM 2015 www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

Tools:

• Climate Analogues• Threshold Calculator• Climate Futures• Map Explorer• Extremes Explorer

Resources

Climate Council www.climatecouncil.org.au @climatecouncil