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WHERE HAS ALL THE FIRE GONE? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW Andy Baker Wildsite Ecological Services
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BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Aug 17, 2015

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Page 1: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

WHERE HAS ALL THE FIRE GONE?

Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in

Byron Shire NSW

Andy BakerWildsite Ecological Services

Page 2: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Overview

Fire Exclusion & Vegetation Change

GIS Analysis Methods

Results - Fire exclusion in Byron Shire

Page 3: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

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3 Key Messages

1. Nearly half of Byron Shire’s biodiversity needs regular fire to maintain suitable habitat

Page 4: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add picture2. Without regular fire,

habitats can change rapidly 3. If habitat becomes unsuitable,

localised extinctions follow

Page 5: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Fire Exclusion & Vegetation Change

• Worldwide phenomenon

• Two main processes:

1. Treeless ecosystems forests2. Open forest rainforest

Page 6: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Wet Tropics Bioregion

• 25% (>100 000 ha.) open forest/woodland rainforest since 1950’s

• 2014 study mapped 2 million ha.(Stanton et al. 2014)

Major open forest types

Page 7: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Time

Rainforest

Climatic Potential

Fire

Why is Change Happening?

Page 8: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

5 years

Grassland

Time

Fire interval governs structure

Page 9: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

20 years

Dry Sclerophyll

Forest

Time

Fire interval governs structure

Page 10: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

100+ yearsor

No fire

Rainforest

Time

Fire interval governs structure

Page 11: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

HeathlandGrassland

Wet Sclerophyll

ForestDry Sclerophyll

Forest

Fire-dependent vegetation

• Most species need fire for recruitment

Page 12: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add pictureTreeless Ecosystems Forests

Page 13: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add pictureTreeless Ecosystems Forests

Page 14: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add pictureTreeless Ecosystems Forests

Page 15: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add pictureTreeless Ecosystems Forests

Page 16: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add pictureTreeless Ecosystems Forests

Page 17: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

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19842012

Page 18: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Open Forests Rainforests

Fire-resistance threshold

• Rainforest trees not removed by fire (manual removal?)• Rainforest regrowth quickly resumes transition process after fire

Page 19: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Fire-suppression threshold

• Understorey unlikely to carry fire (prescribed or wildfire)• Loss of understorey diversity

Page 20: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Is fire-exclusion a problem in Byron Shire?

Page 21: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

METHODS - GIS Analysis

Native Vegetation

Endangered Ecological

Communities

Coastal Wetlands

Coastal Koala Habitat

Time since last known fire

Fire Exclusion Status

Fire-intervals guidelines for

vegetation types

Page 22: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Mapping Time Since Last Known Fire

Step 1: Combine fire records

1974 - 2014

Page 23: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

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Mapping Recommended Fire Intervals

Step 1: Combine vegetation datasets

Page 24: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add pictureStep 2: Exclude exoticvegetation

Page 25: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add pictureStep 3: Assign to vegetation formations

after Walker & Hopkins 1984; Beadle & Costin 1952

Page 26: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add pictureStep 4: Determine fire relationships

Page 27: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Click icon to add pictureStep 5: Assign recommended fire intervals

• Specific to the region

• Recommended by Northern Rivers Regional Biodiversity Management Plan (DECC 2010)

• Factor in risk of vegetation change resulting from fire exclusion

Page 28: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Fire Interval Guidelines - NSW North Coast and SE Queensland

compiled from Watson 2001, Watson 2006 and Tierney & Watson 2009

Page 29: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Step 5: Assign fire intervals

Page 30: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Results

Page 31: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

RESULTS

Fire-dependent Native Vegetation

Page 32: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Long-term Fire Exclusion across

Key Conservation Values

RESULTSEndangered Ecological

Communities(Fire-dependent)

Page 33: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Long-term Fire Exclusion across

Key Conservation Values

RESULTS Coastal Wetlands

Page 34: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Long-term Fire Exclusion across

Key Conservation Values

RESULTS Coastal Koala Habitat

All koala feed trees require fire for widespread recruitment

Page 35: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

So what is their relative importance in Byron Shire?

High vs Low Frequency Fire

High Frequency Fireo listed as Key Threatening Process (TSC Act)o routinely listed as a threat in ecological assessments

Low Frequency Fireo Not listed as KTPo Rarely considered in ecological assessments

Inappropriate Fire Frequency

What about high frequency fire?

Page 36: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Fire-exclusion is spatialy extensive…

but by how long are thresholds exceeded?

Temporal Extent

?

No Data

species & habitat decline

10 yrs

Page 37: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Temporal Extent - formations

Page 38: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Total for Byron Shire

942Fire-dependent communities430 (46%)

Impact on Floristic Diversity

Page 39: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Flora species by height class

0-2m

2-5m

5-50m

600 20 40

Fire-dependent Species (%)

Hei

ght C

lass

(m)

6%

100

initial shading zone

84%

6%

10%

80

Page 40: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Regional Patterns:OEH analysis

What about the broader region?

Page 41: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

ConclusionFire exclusion:• major threatening process affecting Byron Shire’s biodiversity• potentially widespread in similar regions along east coast Restoration complicated by:• encroaching trees that have become fire resistant, and • loss of flammable understorey to carry ecological burns

Further research:• What is the extent of fire-exclusion in other regions?• How quickly are critical thresholds reached in diff. ecosystems?

Page 42: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

ReferencesBeadle, N.C.W. and Costin, A.B. (1952) Ecological classification and nomenclature. Proceedings of

the Linnean Society of New South Wales 77: 61-82.

Stanton, P., Stanton, D., Stott, M. & Parsons, M. (2014) Fire exclusion and the changing landscape of Queensland’s Wet Tropics Bioregion 1. The extent and pattern of transition. Australian Forestry, 77, 51–57.

Tierney, D., & Watson, P. (2009). Fire and the Vegetation of the Namoi CMA. Nature Conservation Council of NSW, Newtown.

Walker,J. & Hopkins,M.S.(1984). Vegetation. In R.C.McDonald, R.F.Isbell, J.G.Speight, J.Walker & M.S.Hopkins(eds). Australian Soil and Land Survey Field Handbook. pp44-67. Inkata Press, Melbourne.

Watson, P. (2001). The role and use of fire for biodiversity conservation in south-east Queensland: Fire management guidelines derived from ecological research. Nature Conservation Council of NSW, Newtown.

Watson, P. (2006). Fire frequency guidelines and the vegetation of the Northern Rivers region. Nature Conservation Council of NSW, Newtown.

Page 43: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

Read more...

Baker, A and Catterall, C. (2015) Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire, Australia. Ecological Management & Restoration 16. doi: 10.1111/emr.12161

Ecological Management & RestorationVolume 16, Issue 2, May 2015

Page 44: BushfireConf 2015 - 5. Where has all the fire gone? Quantifying the spatial and temporal extent of fire exclusion in Byron Shire NSW

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Questions