Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (11th – 15th April ‘11)

8/7/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (11th – 15th April ‘11)

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Weekly Report

Commodity 1 1 t h A p r i l - 1 6 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1

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WEEKLY

METALS SURGES ON FIRM

US EQUITY MARKET !

Globa l Resear ch L im i t ed



2 | www.capitalvia.com

Weekly Report

Commodity

Economic Data

2:45pm

8:30pm

9:45pm

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

FOMC Member Yellen Speaks

USD

USD

USD

3:45pm

6:00pm

6:00pm

8:45pm

11:30pm

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Trade Balance

Import Prices m/m

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Federal Budget Balance

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

Tue

Apr 12-46.3B

1.4%

43.0

0.7%

1.0%

0.9%

2.0M

-222.5B

-44.1B

2.1%

45.7

0.7%

0.6%

0.8%

-157.5B

1.2%

379K

0.2%

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

MonApr 11

Globa l Re s e a rch L imi t e d

1 1 t h A p r i l - 1 6 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1

12:15am

12:20am

6:00pm

6:00pm

7:30pm

11:30pm

8:00pm

FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Core Retail Sales m/m

Retail Sales m/m

Business Inventories m/m

Beige Book

Crude Oil Inventories

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

Wed

Apr 13

6:00pm

6:00pm

6:00pm

6:30pm

6:50pm

All Day

8:00pm

All Day

10:00pm

10:45pm

PPI m/m

Unemployment Claims

Core PPI m/m

FOMC Member Duke Speaks

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

G7 Meetings

Natural Gas Storage

G7 Meetings

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

ALL

ALL

ALL

ALL

ALL

Thu

Apr 141.6%

382K

0.2%

-45B

0.2%

0.6%

17.3

59.4B

77.5%

0.5%

68.8

6:00pm

6:00pm

6:00pm

6:30pm

6:45pm

6:45pm

7:25pm

7:25pm

All Day

8:45pm

Core CPI m/m

CPI m/m

Empire State Manufacturing Index

TIC Long-Term Purchases

Capacity Utilization Rate

Industrial Production m/m

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

G20 Meetings

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

ALL

ALL

ALL

ALLALL

Fri

Apr 150.2%

0.5%

17.5

51.5B

76.3%

-0.1%

67.5

4.6%

Day 1 IMF MeetingsALLSat

Apr 16



Weekly Report

Commodity

Fundamental Market Overview


Gold rose to a record high for a fourth straight day and silver surged on Friday, as a weaker dollar, the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown and inflation worries lifted precious

metals in a broad commodities rally. Gold notched its biggest weekly gain in four months, drawing support from renewed euro zone sovereign debt fears amid Portugal's financial crisis

and inflation jitters as Crude oil and corn hit new highs this week. Bullion broke above key resistance on technical charts and could target above $1,500 an ounce. The metal has risen

more than 10 percent since late January when political unrest began to flare in the Middle East and North Africa.

Spot Gold rose as high as $1,474.60 an ounce and was later up 1 percent at $1,471.74 an ounce. Bullion gained 2.5 percent this week for a fourth straight weekly gain. U.S. Gold futures

for June delivery settled up 1 percent to $1,474.10. Gold remained far below its all-time inflation-adjusted high, estimated at almost $2,500 an ounce set in 1980, an era of Cold War

tension, oil shocks and hyperinflation. U.S. futures activity was sharply below average for a second day, but analysts said low volume was not detrimental to the metal's Bull Run. Gains

in other commodities also lifted precious metals, as Crude oil futures soared to their highest since 2008 and the index rose 1.2 percent. Silver rose 2.4 percent to $40.50 an ounce, just

off the session high of $40.73. The Gold-to-silver ratio -- the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of Gold -- fell to a 28-year low toward 35 on Friday. If bullion could holdabove $1,466 early next week, it should next target an area between $1,500 and $1,510 an ounce.

DOLLAR WEAKNESS UNDERPINS

The dollar's 1 percent slide to a 15-month low against the euro added fuel to a rally that has taken Gold to a series of record highs. The dollar slid on a stalemate in Washington over U.S.

government funding. Federal Reserve policy remained in focus. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said it was unlikely recent spikes in commodity costs would lead to runaway

increases in prices, but Dalls Fed president Richard Fisher said prolonged easy monetary policy could compound what might otherwise be transitory inflationary pressures. Gold has

been a major beneficiary since the Fed has kept short-term rates near zero since December 2008.

GOLD HITS RECORD, SILVER SOARS ON DOLLAR DECLINE

NYMEX-CRUDE HITS 30-MTH HIGH ON DOLLAR, SUPPLY WOES

U.S. Crude oil futures ended at their highest level in 30 months on Friday, rising for the sixth day in seven and pushing gains to a third week, as a decline in the dollar spurred a broad

rally in commodities. The dollar was weighed down by a potential government shutdown which analysts said could hinder economic recovery, and by expectations that interest-rate

differentials will widen further in Europe's favor. With a midnight deadline looming, the White House and Congress struggled to break a budget impasse that threatened to shut down

the U.S. government and idle hundreds of thousands of federal workers. Fears of prolonged supply outages in Libya persisted as fighting raged in the North African oil producer.

Worries about possible supply cuts in the wider Middle East were unabated with protests flaring across the Arab world.

FUNDAMENTALS

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude futures for May delivery settled at $112.79 a barrel, the highest price since Sept. 22, 2008, when front-month prices closed at $120.92. It

traded from $110.11 to $112.86. For the week, front-month futures rose $4.32, or 3.98 percent, up for the third straight week. Prices advanced $21.72, or 21.5 percent, in that three-

week period.

UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS

U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly inventory data, due April 13, 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

COPPER ENDS UP AS INVESTORS SEEK INFLATION HEDGE

Copper ended up over 2 percent on Friday, posting its biggest weekly advance since early December, as the dollar weakened and investor demand for the metal increased with inflation

fears mounting. The gains ran far and wide in the base metals complex, with another record tin price a three-year peak in the price of lead and aluminum touching its loftiest level sinceAugust 2008. Interest rate hikes by China and the European Central Bank this week failed to contain the bullish momentum, as investors eyeing greater inflationary threats in emerging

and developed economies alike continued to flock to hard assets like Copper, precious metals and Crude oil as hedges. London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month Copper rallied $205 to

close at $9,875 per tonne, near a session peak of $9,896 -- its highest in more than a month. COMEX May Copper surged 8.50 cents, or 1.9 percent, to settle at $4.5015 per lb. For the

week, prices were up about 5.7 percent -- their largest weekly gain since the first week of December 2010. The recent bout of price strength placed both London and New York Copper

contracts a little more than 3 percent away from their mid-February records at $10,190 per tonne and $4.6575 per lb, respectively. Even a sustained softness from Chinese consumers at

the start of the year and uncertainties surrounding the true amount of off-exchange, bonded warehouse stocks in China -- estimated at more than 600,000 tonnes -- have failed to alter

longer-term demand perceptions.Traders were also seeking protection Friday against a depreciation in the U.S. dollar, which fell to a 15-month low against the euro as the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown

loomed.Looking ahead, all eyes will be on Chinese import data on Monday, which should show the metal-consuming giant's appetite for Copper, iron ore and coal imports in March rebounded

from multimonth lows posted in February, a holiday-shortened month.

STOCKS

Reinforcing the near-term sluggishness in demand, stocks of Copper saw another 1,800 tonnes flow into LME warehouses on Thursday, bringing total levels to 444,175 tonnes, their

highest since July 2010. But a big 4.8 percent withdrawal in Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange pointed to healthier demand prospects intothe seasonally better second quarter.Furthermore, Copper scrap arrivals into China are likely to rise in late April and May after importers placed more spot orders in the past month as domestic stocks fell, supplier and buyer

sources told Reuters.


1 1 t h A p r i l - 1 6 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1



GOLD

COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold sustains on higher level and

closed near to its week high. In the coming week 1375$ will act as a major support in

COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1450 $ an ounce then above 1480 $ an ounce

it can touch the level of 1500$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1430$ then it

can slightly correct and test the level of 1410$ an ounce.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above

1450$ an ounce, then above 1480$ it can test the level of 1500$ an ounce and above

1505$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.

Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1430$ and 1410$.

Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1505 $ and 1535$

Major support in MCX Gold is 21150 and 20900

Major resistance in MCX Gold is 21500 and 21650

Strategy

SILVER

COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver broke its

psychological level of 4000$ an ounce and closed above that. For the upcoming week

3900$ and 3750$ are the crucial supports and 4150$ and 4300 $ are crucial resistance in

COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 62500 and 64500 will act as major resistance and 57500 and

54500 will act as major supports.

Market Overview

Technically COMEX Silver is strong on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on

lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3900$ an ounce, then above 4100$

an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 4160$ an ounce. Trade by

keeping the proper stop losses.

Strategy

1554 1507 1490 1460 1443 1412

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

1365

Script

Levels

4609 4294 4177 3979 3862 3664


3349

Script

Levels

Weekly Report

Commodity

Technical Analysis



1 1 t h A p r i l - 1 6 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1



CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week in Crude oil broke its level of 107 and made a

close near to its week high. For the coming week 96$ will act as major support and 108.30

$ a barrel will be a major resistance. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4875 and

4950 and major supports will be 4600 and 4500.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains

above the level of 100 $ a barrel then above 108.50 $ it can slightly come up and touch the

level of 109.20 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4835 Crude oil can touch the level of 4900 if it

sustains above 4700. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

COPPER

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy onlower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was up for most part of week. If next week COMEX

Copper sustains above the level of 440 then above the level of 450 Copper can test the level

of 457. In MCX Copper above 450 Copper can test the level of 450 if it does not break the

level of 433 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 460 and 475 will act as major resistance and 430 and 417 will act as

major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 450 and 460

and supports would be found at 430 and 420.

Strategy

122.58 116.87 114.83 111.16 109.12 105.45


99.74

Script

Levels

503.60 472.50 461.30 441.30 430.20 410.20


379.05 z

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



1 1 t h A p r i l - 1 6 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1



NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on

lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of the week. If next week

Natural Gas sustains above the level of 3.900 $ then above the level of 4.080$ Natural Gas

can test the level of 4.180 $ and below 3.900$ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the

level of 3.810 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above180 in the coming week then it can

test the level of 187, if it does not break the level of 172 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.200 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and

5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance

would be 207 and 220, supports would be found at 165 and 150.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.3000 then above the level of

44.5000 USD/INR can test the level of 44.7500 and below 43.8000 USD/INR can slightly go

down and test the level of 43.6000.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 43.8000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and

46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy

4.840 4.490 4.265 4.140 3.915 3.790


3.440

Script

Levels

45.1330 44.6530 44.3570 44.1730 43.8770 43.6930


43.2130

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



1 1 t h A p r i l - 1 6 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1



WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1474.1 3.16

SILVER 4060.8 7.62

COPPER 450.15 5.71

CRUDE 112.79 4.49

NATURAL GAS 4.041 -7.36

USD/INR 44.06 -0.70

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

NATURAL GAS 26 -APR-11 177.90 -8.66

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 4-JUN -11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 20945 20959 2091521459 21412 132780 10878 2727838.76467

Silver MCX 5-MAY-11 Silver RS./ KG. 55884 55991 5599160888 60483 406982 16140 6743930.154599

Copper MCX 29-APR-11 Copper RS./ KG. 419.1 419 415.6445.15 443.15 491951 17932 2054595.9924.05

Crude Oil MCX 18-APR-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4825 4830 47785098 5030 598332 17312 2835230.72205

Natural Gas MCX 26-APR-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 194.8 193.9 176.4195 177.9 144841 15646 332597.7-16.9

Lead MCX 28-APR-11 Lead RS./ KG. 122.55 122.35 121.85135.35 131.85 108770 7526 632367.629.3

Zinc MCX 28-APR-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 106.25 106.15 106.05115.5 113.4 115834 7040 598229.377.15

Aluminum MCX 28-APR-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 116.95 116.7 116.4122 120 22387 3.05 1957 124328.4

Nickel MCX 28-APR-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1150.6 1149.1 1122.51246.5 1233.5 264200 7285 754979.8482.9

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

SILVER 05 -MAY-11 60483 8.23

LEAD 28 -APR-11 131.85 7.59

Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity


*

* Turnover Till Friday

SILVER 28 -APR-11 1233.50 7.21


1 1 t h A p r i l - 1 6 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1



Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

22350.00

68914.67

493.73

5608.67

220.30

156.68

130.55

1448.83

130.67

21806.00

64017.67

464.18

5288.67

201.70

143.18

121.10

1324.83

125.07

21262.00

59120.67

434.63

4968.67

183.10

129.68

111.65

1200.83

119.47

21065.00

57353.33

424.12

4839.33

171.20

124.02

107.80

1155.17

116.93

20718.00

54223.67

418.97

4648.67

164.50

116.18

102.20

1076.83

113.87

20174.00

49326.67

375.53

4328.67

145.90

102.68

92.75

952.83

108.27

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Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity

R2

21609.00

62250.33

453.67

5159.33

189.80

137.52

117.25

1279.17

122.53

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1 1 t h A p r i l - 1 6 t h A p r i l 2 0 1 1

Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (11th – 15th April ‘11)

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