Building resilience A whole systems approach to sustainable development Matt Cullinan TAU Breakfast Session 9 th September 2010.

Building resilience

A whole systems approach to sustainable development

Matt CullinanTAU Breakfast Session

9th September 2010

The problem

• Average economic growth tends to benefit the rich 120x more than it benefits the poor.

• The amount of growth needed to benefit the poor (in terms of present rates of trickle down) is environmentally unsustainable – we do not have the resources to support it.

• Growth has led to a major resource crisis – most significantly, the likely end of oil – in our lifetimes.

• Clear indications of climate change, water depletion and food insecurities. • If we all consumed resources at the level of Europe and American

countries we would need (at least) 2.1 x planet earths to sustain us.• We following this model to benefit the marginalised in South Africa and

Africa – but we are going to hit the same limits (even if we have not contributed to the problem).

• We are collectively seeing the loss of resilience, adaptability and functioning of our systems – the old ways of doing things are no longer going to take us forward.

The everyday problem

We are facing the limits to conventional growth and hitting the funnel

Where are we and when will we hit the limit?

Not “if” but “when”

• It is not about if an environmental crisis can be avoided - it is a question of how big and bad it’s going to be

• What systems are in place to manage and mitigate its impact?

• How are we responding?• Our responses are more often ad hoc and

piecemeal – but we cannot solve our environmental crisis with the thinking that got us there in the first place

It is about systems

• We need to tackle the problems confronting us in a systemic manner

• Tackling the challenges can also be an opportunity to tackle inequality, social injustice, and so forth

• We need coherent, holistic visions – There is a role for utopias – an imagined future of an ideal

post-carbon age– Thomas Berry the Geologian has suggested an Ecozoic Era

• One of the guiding principles must be resilience• Resilience is about creating complex adaptive systems

at all levels which operate in an integrated manner

Individual

The sustainability complex

National/State

Household

Community/ Neighbourhood

City

Region/Province

Global

Global Norms, Conventions, Protocols and Agreements (e.g. Kyoto protocol, Global Campaign on Good Urban Governance)

National Policies and Programmes (e.g. Energy policy, fiscal policy, PoA, PME, NPC , NSDP, Eco Dev policy – but also NEMA and legislation)

Provincial/Regional Strategies (Trade incentives and promotion, PSDF)

Plans, Initiatives and Strategies (Electricity incentives, Sustainable Building Codes, Urban form, transport technology, etc.)

Initiatives and projects (recycling, education, tree planting)Water saving devices,

recycling programmes, energy saving techniques and technologies, transport choices, lifestyle choices

Lifestyle choices (products consumed, methods of using products and resources, choice of living environment, travel modes, etc.)

The sustainability complex

Increasing degree of personal control and impact in terms of

lifestyle, consumption and production changes

and choices

As one moves up the triangle, the effectiveness of action at each level is affected by the degree of supporting environment and action in the level

aboveIndividual

National/State

Household

Community/ Neighbourhood

City

Region/Province

Global

““We might declare our neighbourhood nuclear-We might declare our neighbourhood nuclear-free, but unless we are simultaneously free, but unless we are simultaneously

working, at the international level, for the working, at the international level, for the abandonment of nuclear weapons, we can do abandonment of nuclear weapons, we can do

nothing to prevent ourselves and everyone nothing to prevent ourselves and everyone else from being threatened by people who are else from being threatened by people who are

not as nice as we are. We would deprive not as nice as we are. We would deprive ourselves, in other words, of the power of ourselves, in other words, of the power of

restraint” restraint”

Monbiot (2004), p 13Monbiot (2004), p 13

What is the significance of the city?

Increasing degree of personal control and impact in terms of

lifestyle, consumption and production changes

and choices

As one moves up the triangle, the effectiveness of action at each level is affected by the degree of supporting environment and action in the level

above

National/State

Household

Community/ Neighbourhood

City

Region/Province

Global

Individual

Rough division between policy level and physical action/implementation level

CITY LEVEL INTERVENTION IS KEY

The City is the fulcrum between policy and enabling action. It is the level at which systems of delivery can be influenced and manipulated to ensure self-interest is aligned with societal good

Factors influencing ability to become sustainable

• Environmental damage• Climate change• Hostile neighbours • Friendly trade partners• Society’s response to its environmental

problems

“ “ to see ahead a situation in which the shortage to see ahead a situation in which the shortage of certain key raw materials and commodities, of certain key raw materials and commodities,

which are necessary to maintain existing which are necessary to maintain existing patterns of production and existing high levels patterns of production and existing high levels

of consumption, will create such tension of consumption, will create such tension within societies which have got used to these within societies which have got used to these

patterns that they could in majority be patterns that they could in majority be prepared to resort to every kind of pressure – prepared to resort to every kind of pressure – not only political and sub-military, but openly not only political and sub-military, but openly

military – to assure what they see as the military – to assure what they see as the supplies necessary to the maintenance of their supplies necessary to the maintenance of their

order of life. This is already a dangerous order of life. This is already a dangerous current of opinion in the United States” current of opinion in the United States”

Raymond Williams, 1982Raymond Williams, 1982

““There is the tragedy. Each man is locked in a There is the tragedy. Each man is locked in a system that compels him to increase his herd system that compels him to increase his herd without limit – in a world that is limited. Ruin without limit – in a world that is limited. Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, is the destination toward which all men rush,

each pursuing his own best interest in a each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the society that believes in the freedom of the

commons. Freedom in a commons brings ruin commons. Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all.” to all.”

Gareth Hardin, Tragedy of the Commons, 1968Gareth Hardin, Tragedy of the Commons, 1968

E.G.More is less• Car is the promise of freedom – the open

road, a to b with ease, life is a breeze• If I run a gas guzzling 4X$ I get the full

value and utility in terms of ego-boost and use of car, but only suffer a marginal penalty in terms of increased pollution and congestion. If I change to public transport – I make such a small difference its not noticeable AND I have the schlep.

• Unlimited freedom and system designed to support and enable growth has resulted in the reverse.– No incentive or benefits for those who live

sustainably, and– (ironically) congestion, frustration and a

limitation of freedom for car users• We need policies, controls and incentives

to manage this phenomenon

Picture: IUCN stand at WSSD

Food Security – greatest challenge for the post-carbon age

• At the beginning of 2009, the World Bank reported that between 2005 and 2008 the incidence of poverty increased in East Asia, the Middle East, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa largely because of higher food prices

• The number the Bank classifies as extremely poor—people living on less than $1.25 a day—increased by at least 130 million. The Bank observed that "higher food prices during 2008 may have increased the number of children suffering permanent cognitive and physical injury caused by malnutrition by 44 million.“

• The number of hungry is climbing. The long-term decline in the number of hungry and malnourished that characterized the last half of the twentieth century was reversed in the mid-1990s—rising from 825 million to roughly 850 million in 2000 and to over 1 billion in 2009. A number of factors contributed to this, but none more important than the massive diversion of grain to fuel ethanol distilleries in the United States. The U.S. grain used to produce fuel for cars in 2009 would feed 340 million people for one year

Food security – big challenges• OIL: The US food system consumes (through oil) ten

times more energy than it produces. As fossil fuel production declines (and costs increase) there will be less available for food production

• WATER: Ground water extraction exceeds replenishment in most parts of the world by a factor of almost 100

• PRACTISE: Use of genetically modified crops, abandonment of rotation crop systems, destruction of soil quality through inorganic fertilizers means that crops increasingly prone to more pests infestations and impact of climatic variation (less resilience)

Food security – eating oil

• It takes about 1500 litres of oil to feed each American annually– 31% = fertilizer– 19% = farm equipment– 16% = crops to market– 13% = irrigation– 8% = livestock (next seasons food production)– 5% - crop drying– 5% = pesticide manufacture– 8% = miscellaneous

Food Security – the case of Cuba

• When the Soviet Union collapsed, it left Cuba without an oil supplier – US sanctions kept it that way

• Cuba already had a high % of scientists – already had regional research institutes, training centres and extension services in place when crises hit

• Today they have reached oil based levels of productivity – by building resilience

• “The Cuban miracle is the product of a people with vision and solidarity” Pfeiffer, p57

Cuban success• Low-impact, self reliant farming (smaller farms with direct control

by farmers)• Inter-cropping and manuring• Biopesticides (microbes and natural enemies)• Biofertilizers (earthworms, compost, natural rock phosphate,

animal and green manure and grazing animals)• Animals replaced tractors• Land reform led to smaller cooperatives with direct incentives and

support services• Urban agriculture• System of markets

• THEY BUILT A RESILIENT (ADAPTABLE AND DIVERSE) SYSTEM

Challenge = Opportunity• Most importantly we need to start debating what these things mean and how they

could look and work in a systematic manner• We need to consider a vision for a future post-carbon age around which we can

galvanise personal, household, neighbourhood, city, government and even international activity. These are the conversations we should be having.

• The solutions are there – but we need to create the systems within which they hang together (although the last piece in the puzzle may be ethical/cultural/religious).

• Getting to an Ecozoic Era can be about creating a better world – different, but perhaps better in a personal, political, social and economic sense (a post-consumerist world)

• It need not be about sacrifice – it could be about achieving other things as well• What about TAU? Could we make TAU the first Carbon Neutral government

agency? It’s not difficult, but we’d all have to play our role– Plant a few trees every year– Car pool, public transport – Have a teleconference whenever we can avoid flying– Encourage the conversations