Promoting Productive Capacity Development in the LDCs Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop on Graduation Strategies from the Least Developed Country Category as part of the Implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action for the LDCs 4 December 2013, Siem Reap, Cambodia Clovis Freire Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
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Promoting Productive Capacity Development in the LDCs
Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop on Graduation Strategies from the Least Developed Country Category as part of the Implementation of the Istanbul
Programme of Action for the LDCs
4 December 2013, Siem Reap, Cambodia
Clovis Freire
Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
Change of paradigm
Before IPoA
• Focus on exchange (static view)
• Given what we produce today, how to improve
welfare through trade?
After IPoA
• Focus on production and employment
(dynamic view)
• How to foster new economic activities and create
productive jobs given the existing production base
Source: Author based on data from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (COMTRADE) and from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. (2009 data)
WSM
VUT
VNM
TUR
TLS
THA
SLB
SGP
RUS
PHL
PAK
NZL
NPL
MYS
MNP
MMR
MDV
LKA
LAO
KIR
KHM
IRN
IDN
HKG
BTN
BGD
AUS
AFG
TUV
JPN
USA
CHNINDKOR
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Diversification (Number of products)
Ho
w c
om
mo
n a
re t
he
pro
du
cts
ex
po
rte
d
(Nu
mb
er
of
co
un
trie
s e
xp
ort
ing
sim
ila
r p
rod
uc
ts)
0
Diversified
countries
producing
common products
Non-diversified
countries
producing
common products
Diversified
countries
producing
uncommon
products
Non-diversified
countries
producing
uncommon
products
Mean=91.4
Mean=1,868
More diversified countries face lower competition
Source: ESCAP (2011), Economic and Social Survey 2011.
Palau
Tuvalu
Kiribati
Marshall Islands
Northern Mariana Islands
Micronesia, Fed. Sts.
Timor-Leste
Tonga
Vanuatu
Cook Islands
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Bhutan
Niue
Nauru
Turkmenistan
Guam
Maldives
French Polynesia
American Samoa
Tajikistan
New Caledonia
Papua New Guinea
Brunei Darussalam
Mongolia
Kyrgyzstan
Lao PDR
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Myanmar
Uzbekistan
Fiji
Cambodia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Kazakhstan
Georgia
Afghanistan
Macao SAR, China
Nepal
Bangladesh
Korea, Dem. Rep.
LAC
Sri Lanka
Iran, Islamic Rep.
ESCAP
Pakistan
Viet Nam
Philippines
Indonesia
New Zealand
Malaysia
Russian Federation
Turkey
Thailand
Hong Kong SAR, China
Singapore
Korea, Rep.
India
Eu15
China
Australia
Japan
United States
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Productive Capacity (Distance to the mean)
ESCAP Index of productive capacity
Source: Freire (2011). Productive Capacities in Asia and the Pacific. MPDD Working Papers, WP/11/17.
• Most LDCs are at the tail-end
of the index of productive
capacities; below the global
average
• LDCs remain specialized in
few and less sophisticated
products
• International environment has
not facilitated diversification
and increase in productive
capacities of LDCs
Source: Author based on Freire (2011). Productive Capacities in Asia and the Pacific. MPDD Working Papers, WP/11/17.
-0.65
-0.60
-0.55
-0.50
-0.45
-0.40
-0.35
-0.30
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Pro
du
cti
ve
ca
pac
ity (
dis
tan
ce
to
th
e m
ea
n)
Bangladesh
Nepal
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Myanmar
Maldives
Bhutan, Samoa, Vanuatu,Solomon
Isl., Timor-Leste, Kiribati, Tuvalu
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Pro
du
cti
ve
ca
pa
cit
y (
dis
tan
ce
to
th
e m
ea
n)
Viet Nam
Latvia
Estonia
Lithuania
LDCs in
Asia-Pacific
Few countries increased their productive capacities when starting from LDCs’ levels
Source: ESCAP (2011), Economic and Social Survey 2011.
Increasing diversification and reducing competition
Source: Author based on data from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (COMTRADE).