Building consensus for - United Nations · Proposal of an Image of the Future 2030 Institutional framework • 2030 Agenda • Paris Agreement • Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk

July 18th, 2017

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Javier Abugattás

President of the Board of Directors – CEPLAN

www.ceplan.gob.pe

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Building consensus for

“Visión Perú” to 2030

Voluntary National Review - 2017

Integral knowledge of reality to build scenarios, to formulatepolicies and plans, and to achieve results

OCÉANO PACÍFICO

COLOMBIA

BRASIL

BOLIVIA

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2030 36.9 millions

Demographic trends: Peru’s population outlook 2100

2070 43.7 millions

Source: United Nations, 2015

Millions

of

people

32.1 millions2017

2100 41.6 millions

41.9 millions2050

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Peru: trends and projections of Peru’s population, 1950 - 2100 (millions

of people)

Average variant

80% probabilistic prediction interval

90% prediction interval

Estimate

High and low fertility variant

60 sample trajectories

4

2.45.2 5.8 6.0

3.1

8.7

13.3

16.2

0.2

0.7

1.3

2.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Millions

of

people

Jóvenes (15 - 29 años) Adultos (30 - 64 años) Adultos mayores (65 a más años)

Peru: trends and projections of the Peruvian labor force by age

groups, 1980 – 2050 (millions of people)

Source: CEPAL – CELADE

5,7

14,6

20,4

24,4

There is a process of aging of the labor force.

Peru’s labor force trends outlook 2050

Source: International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 2014)

Change in the mean global surface temperature

Environmental trends: World Climate Change outlook 2100

Planning the same way is impossible due to the current global context with

high vulnerability and variability that the world is experiencing.

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Observed

High-emmissions

scenario

Overlapping

Low-emmission

mitigation

scenario

Institutionalframework

Implementation

General GovernmentPolicy (4 axis)

Scenarios:Trends ----->

Contextual ----->

Population Climate Change Socioeconomic

Axis 1. Opportunities, social

investment, wáter,

infrastructure

Axis 2.Security. Anti-corruption

fight

Axis 3. Employment,

formalization y reactivation of

the economy

Axis 4. Bringing the State closer

to the Citizenship

Functions of the State (25)

Sectors (28)

Ministries (19)

Regional Governments

(26)6

2030 Agenda Welfare approachInvestment framework

Acuerdo Nacional

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Peru´s Sustainable Development by 2030: conceptual model

Local Governments(196 provinces,1874

districts)

New raw materialssupercycle

Ocurrence of natural disasters

Rising expectations of themiddle class

Increase in technology and mechanization

Framework policy for investment

General framework to update policies and plans

Supranationalframework

Nationalframework

Global trends

Population Climate Change Socioeconomic

2030 Agenda:17 SDG, 169 targets

OECD: Country ProgrammeWelfare (15 dimensions)Investment framework (12 guidelines)

State

Co

ntext

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Peru’s proposal of an Image of the Future to 2030

Peru today

25 Functions,

19 Ministries,

26 Regional Governments, 196 provinces and 1874 districts

Foresight analysis

• To fully understandreality, as well asexplore possiblefutures, through theidentification oftrends, diagnosis ofvariables and theconstruction andanalysis of scenarios,in order to anticipateand articulate effortstowards theachievement of adesired future

Towards a concerted vision of the futureProposal of an Image of the Future 2030

Institutional framework

• 2030 Agenda

• Paris Agreement

• Sendai Framework forDisaster RiskReduction 2015-2030

• Addis Ababa Action Agenda

International National• State

policies

• Nationalpolicies

• Sectorial policies

• Territorial policies

Proposal of an Image of the Future in different languages

Español Shipibo-Konibo Awajun Wampis English

1. Al 2030 todas las personas pueden realizar su potencial.

Rabe waranka kimisha chonka baritianra jatibi joni noa koshikana iti jake

Mijan 2030 atata nuwig ashi aentsamaigkau amainai dita Kajin

2030tinka, shuar aiña nusha wariñaturumaiñak aiña nunaka ashiumikarai.

By 2030, everyone is able to fulfill their potential.

2. Se han desarrollado esfuerzos concertados para la conservación y gestión sostenible de los recursos naturales, tomando medidas urgentes para hacer frente al cambio climático

Icha teera akanke jakon axon non niimera jaabo koirankanti kopi itanjakonaxribi teeti kopi, jaskaxon ishtonbechitenti shinanxon jawetianki onsajawekibo non jeman winoti atipana ikiixon

Ikam pachisa, namak pachisa, kuntin pachisa, nugka initkentakamain tepaju aina nunupachisa, juju takakuish amumatsuktakatai ati tusa ijunja chichamantujdaikaji, nuniaku dase tsuwapamunum tsawan besekwega nunu awantatna dushauminkae

Tsawan yapajinki wea nuumamikma jetektasar shir iruntrar juikuamak, entsa, kucha weanta nuukuitamnati nuyasha chicham jintiararumirkar jutiksar takasmau ati tusar chicham uminkayi.

Concerted efforts have been made for the conservation and sustainable management of natural resources, taking urgent steps to address climate change.

3. Todas las personas gozan de una vida prospera y plena, con empleo digno y en armonía con la naturaleza, conservando reservas de recursos para el bienestar futuro

Jatibi jonibora senen itan jakonshamanjakanke, jakon teeyabo itanraroshaman non niibobetan jax, jakonakin non niimeran jayatabo koirantanajawetianbi noa oribo jawenbimaxkatima kopi

Ashi aents tajimat waigku asajdakunkut shiij batsatui, takatjintinwaigkaje, nugkash tsuwapatsuktakanui, atak atsumaku takamainadusha anettsa

Shuar aiña nuka, kuamak warin a nusha arumaisha imanisan akai shirpujamu ati tusa, nui enentaimaskuamkancha arantuk pujus takarmakshir tarimat pujuiñawai

All people enjoy a prosperous and fulfilled life, with dignified employment and in harmony with nature, considering resources reserves for the future´s well-being

4. La sociedad peruana es pacifica, justa e inclusiva, libre del temor y de la violencia; sin corrupción ni discriminación y con igualdad de oportunidades

Peruano joniboriki jakomamistishinaomabo, senen jonibo, jato biaijonibo, raketi shinaoma itanjakomamisti shinaoma jonibo, jansoxonjaweki akai joniboma, jaskaribi jato omisyamai, jaskaaxon jato senenbiresakinai itan ikinai jonibo

Perunumia aentsuk tutitjachuainawai, dekas anentaiyaipachiijatin ainawai, puyatamushatsujuinawai, waitkamushatsujuinawai, agkan batsatui; kasaabaush atsawai, wainkauchdiijatbaush atsawai, betek niinisawaiti ujatdaiyamu awai

Perunmaya shuarka nankami maaniiruneatsui, ashi metek chichamnashaiwarin aiñawai nuyasha ashi metektuak matsatenawai, ishamsarpujamusha tura maaniamushaatsamunam matsatenawai; muijkartuscha iirkatenatsui tura ashimetek warí penker amaunmashaénketkaiñawai

Peru´s society is just, inclusive and peaceful; free from fear and violence; without corruption nor discrimination and with equality of opportunities.

5. Se han fortalecido las alianzas para alcanzar el desarrollo sostenible, en correspondencia con el respeto universal de los derechos humanos, sin dejar a nadie atrás.

Westiora shinanbicho akaxrakoshikanke jaskaxon non jayatajawekinin teetanan bebonti kopi, jaskaatanan jatibi jonibo tsoabiomisyamakin itan jato pekaoriayamakin senenbires jato ikinti kopi

Tajimat pujustin amaigkatna nunupachisa achinija kakajamawajnase, aentsu ayamke juni atitusa ashi nugkanum chichamumikbauwa nunu aintuja, bakichikaentsua dukesh ukunum ukuamukatsawai

Emka weakrisha nunka emestsuktakat emami tusar enentai achikar, chikichjai takat tsanintai aiñanujaisha kakaram enentai enkerji, tumar senchimarji, juka jutiknayichikishkisha ukunam ujuatsuk ju nunka jui shuara ayamkarishaarankar takamu ati timauwa nuumetek umiakur

In accordance with the universal respect for human rights, alliances have been strengthened in order to achieve sustainable development, without leaving anyone behind.

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Dialogue process, consultation and consensus-building

Inform

Collectopinions

Generateappropriation

Dialogue and consultation on Peru´s proposed image of the future

Consensus-building process of Peru’s Vision of the future

Acuerdo NacionalMCLCPCivil Society OrganisationsMinoritiesGuildsAcademyPolitical leadersExpertsNational Planning SystemCitizensOthers not represented

Presentation of theimage of the future

Image of the futureProposed image

Concerted vision of future to 2030

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Strategic planning cycle for continuous improvement

It seeks to understand how people live in their territories, their livelihoods

and their level of well-being

The people´s aspirations are identified, an analysis of the future is

carried out and the image of the desired territory is defined.

Public policies are defined to achieve the image of the desired territory, through prioritised and guidelines.

It collects and analyzes information on the indicators defined in the plans to verify the progress towards achieving

the image of the desired territory.

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3

4

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Organisation for monitoring progress

Illustrative indicators of Peru´s proposed imageof the future by year 2030

Economic trends: Incidence in poverty

Between 2006 and 2016, monetary poverty declined by 28.4 percentage points; which means that more than seven millionPeruvians left the situation of poverty. By 2030, approximately three and a half million people will have left the povertysituation.

Source: INEI (2017) and CEPLAN (projections)

49.1

42.4

37.3

33.530.8

27.825.8

23.922.7 21.8 20.7 19.6 18.6 17.5 16.6 15.7 14.9 13.9 13.0 12.1 11.1 10.4 9.7 9.0 8.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Peru: Incidence of total poverty (2006) and projectios for the year 2030(% population)

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Notes: 1 / Obtained from the "Sistema de Registro del Certificado de Nacido Vivo en Línea" of the Ministry of Health (MINSA). It is a web system that allows health facilities to register newborns in a timelymanner, generate a Certificate of Live Birth (CNV). 2 / is the birth register of the National Registry of Identification and Civil Status Office. The relationship between the birth registration (MINSA) and birthregister (RENIEC) represents the coverage of registrations in the Registration System of Live Birth Certificates. In this sense, the projection to 2030 was adjusted to a logistic curve, where the upper boundwas 100%.

Peru: registration of newborns1/ in relation to the

registration of births2/, 2012 - 2030, (%)

Trends in the registration of newborns in Peru

Source: MINSA – Live System of Registration of the Newborn Certificate of the Ministry of Health (CNV). RENIEC-Statistics of civil registries.Elaboration: CEPLAN - National Directorate of Foresight and Strategic Studies (DNPE).

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

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Note: Projections of the percentage of newborns with low weight were adjusted to a trend curve based on the indicator´s historical values. It is considered underweight if the newborn weighs less than2.5 kg.

Newborns with low weight in relation to newborns, 2012 – 2030, (%)

Trends on newborns with low weight in Peru

Source: Live System of Registration of Certificate of Live Birth of the Ministry of Health (MINSA)Elaboration: DNPE - National Center of Strategic Planning

6.896.73

6.36

6.40

6.23

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

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Northern region: main rivers

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Central region: main rivers

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Southern region: main rivers

Integral knowledge of reality

Peru’s Vision to 2030

Update of policies and plans

Implementation

Wellfare

Peru’s challenge to 2030

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Take the bold and transformative measures that are needed to redirect the

country along the road to sustainability

Commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

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Muchas gracias.

www.ceplan.gob.pe