Budhi Setiawan Civil Engineering Department, Sriwijaya University INDONESIA Senior Technical Advisor on Office for Climate Change Resilience – Ministry of National Development Planning Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment in City Level Greater Malang, Palembang City and Tarakan Island Presented at Kaohsiung Water Forum April 21-25, 2013 – Kaohsiung Taiwan
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Budhi Setiawan Civil Engineering Department, Sriwijaya University INDONESIA
Presented at Kaohsiung Water Forum April 21-25, 2013 – Kaohsiung Taiwan. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment in City Level Greater Malang, Palembang City and Tarakan Island. Budhi Setiawan Civil Engineering Department, Sriwijaya University INDONESIA - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Budhi SetiawanCivil Engineering Department, Sriwijaya University INDONESIA
Senior Technical Advisor on Office for Climate Change Resilience – Ministry of National Development Planning
Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment in City Level Greater Malang, Palembang City and Tarakan Island
Presented at Kaohsiung Water ForumApril 21-25, 2013 – Kaohsiung Taiwan
Outline
• Climate Risk and Adaptation Assesssment Framework in Indonesia
• Flood Risk and Adaptation Method• Landslide Risk and Adaptation Method• Analysis of Climate Risk and Adaptation in :
– Greater Malang– Palembang City– Tarakan Island
CLIMATE RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN INDONESIA
Approach
Impact Vulnerability Adaptation RISK Integrated
Scientific Objective Impact and risk under future climate
Processes effecting vulnerability to climate
change
Processes effecting adaptation and adaptive
capacity
Risk and Policy Response
Assessment
Interaction and feedbacks between multiple driver
and impacts
Practical aims Actions to reduce risks Action to reduce vulnerability
Vulnerability Analysis(Map of Landslide Vulnerability)
Risk= Hazard x Vulnerability(Map of Landslide Risk)
Adaptation Strategy
STEP I
STEP IV
STEP II
STEP III
STEP V
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT
IN GREATER MALANG (FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE)
0 50 100 150 200 250 3000
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Rainfall (mm/day)
Pro
babi
lity
of E
xcee
denc
e
1 yr2 yr
5 yr
10 yr
Probability of exceedence rainfall with return periods 1, 2, 5, and 10 years
Relationship between monthly rainfall and probability of extreme rainfall
Climate condition in Greater Malang
Hazard Potential of Flood in Greater Malang
Baseline Projection
Flood vulnerability in Greater Malang
Baseline Projection
16
Flood Risk in Baru City
Baseline Projection
Baseline Projection
Flood Risk in Malang City
Flood Risk in Malang Regency
Baseline Projection
5 10 20 30 40 50 600.0
50.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0
Kurva IDF (Intensity-Duration Frequency)
kurva-basis
durasi
inte
nsita
s
Slope stability analysis based on climate change hazard
Hazard Baseline Map of December 2006, as the most wet month
Hazard Baseline Map of December 2007 as the most dry month
Landslide Hazard in Greater Malang
Components Indicators Sub-indicators Weighting
Exposure Population density Population and population growth per sub-district 0.54
Landuse Landuse as in regional planning 0.22Sensitivity Role of infrastructure Road infrastructure 0.18Adaptive Capacity Population Welfare Population’s income 0.06
baseline projection
Landslide Vulnerability in Greater Malang
Landslide risk map for baseline condition(Observation data)
Landslide risk map for baseline condition(Simulation data)
Landslide risk map for projection condition
Risk Level
Risk Area (m2)
Baseline Projection
Observation Simulation Simulation
Very Low 760.260.000 792.590.000 2.141.700.000
Low 1.639.880.000 1.657.270.000 328.540.000
Moderate 152.550.000 115.720.000 56.510.000
High 33.440.000 20.620.000 54.200.000
Very High 250.000 190.000 880.000
Landslide Risk Area of Great Malang
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT
IN PALEMBANG CITY (FLOOD)
Palembang City
Palembang inCoastal Area, Swamp Area, River and Lowland
The Development in Swamp Area
= River
(Curah Hujan di Asia Tenggara peta awal 1900-an,Broek, 1944)
Aldrian and Susanto (2003)
Sumsel beriklim basah; batas antara tipe monsunal (satu puncak) dan ekuatorial (dua puncak) ?
Regional Climate
Past Local Climate in Palembang
Equatorial
Monsunal
Ekuatorial in dry season
Limit of dry/wet month from Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics
De gemiddelde jaartemperaturen op de kustplaatsen verschillen minder dan l°C. en bewegen zich, voor zoover bekend, tusschen 26.6 en 27.3° C. ; het gemiddelde verschil tusschen dag- en nachttemperatuur is 5 a 6° C. ; dat tusschen de warmste en de koudste maand iets meer dan 1° C.
Temperature :• Monthly mean temperature has two peaks that seems to
lag about one month or more from the equinoxes with an average value of slightly above 27° C. It is of interest to note that the temperature difference between warmest (May) and coolest (January) months is about 1° C. (C. Lekkerkerker, 1916).
Development Verification weighting Projection
The trend of temperature does not show significant increasing from year of 1951 to 2030. From the 3 scenarios SRES the temperature increase to 1° C relative to (1961-1990)
Source : Hadi, 2011
Source : Hadi, 2011
Figure below shows Baseline condition of temperature for baseline (1955-1999) and projection of temperature (2009-2099).
TEMPERATURE
Slightly different in the mountains area on the North West it becomes unclear in dry season (rainfall is relatively higher)
Source : Hadi, 2011
The models shows the spatial variability of rainfall for baseline condition (1951-1990) by using Observation data (left) and SRA1B scenarios of IPCC.Source : Hadi, 2011
Source : Hadi, 2011
Rainfall analysis are using some scenarios of IPCC, although the models show large discrepancy from observations, the increase of rainfall during the last decade was obtained from the results from A1B and A2 scenarios. In general, results from these two scenarios produce similar rainfall variations at least until early 2030s.
RAINFALL
Hazard analysis
Baseline (2010) Projection (2030)
Vulnerability
Baseline (2010) Projection (2030)
Difference Analysis Level of VulnerabilityMesso Micro Local
Baseline
Projection
Baseline
Projection
Baseline
Projection
Risk Analysis
• R= H x V
Baseline (2010) Projection (2030)
Adaptation Strategy/ActionLand use type Short-term Long term
Road Drainage normalisationIncreasing level of road surface
Increasing level of pavement
Housing and building Drainage normalisationBio-poreIncreasing the amount of farming
Watershed areaRiver normalisation
Install embankmentPumping
Swamp area Drainage normalisation Monitoring to the regulation
Industry, office, trade and service area
Infiltration Measure (permeable paving)
Bio-poreDetention
Other landuse typeInfiltration Measure
(permeable paving)Canalisation
Drainage normalisation Green space
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE RISK AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN TARAKAN ISLAND (LANDSLIDE)
Tarakan Island• On east-side of Kalimantan, Indonesia• Located at 3o14'23"-3o26'37" Northern Latitude and 117o30'50"-117o40'12“ Eastern Longitude• 61 Landslide occurences until 2010• Slope 0-15%• Extreme scenario of rainfall intensity is 100 mm/Hours (with the longest duration is 2 hours) • Annual rainfall has two peak; on April (338 mm with average monthly temperature) and November, 360 mm mmt), meanwhile the most dry is on February (252 mm mmt)• The estimation of temperature increasing is higher than 0,5 degree C/100 years
Survey Titik Longsor di Kota Tarakan
61 points of Landslide Occurences in Tarakan
Annual pattern of climate
Rainfall
Temperatur
Projection of climate
Hazard Components:• Landslide occurence• Slope• Geology• Ground Water Recharge
Keterangan : •Lokasi longsor berada pada Kecamatan Tarakan Utara, Kelurahan juata laut, •Slope 21-40%•Geologi batu pasir•Tata guna lahan berada di pinggir laut dengan kawasan terbangun •Vegetasi rapat•Safety factor 0,79•kejadian longsor 3 titik (56173,380233), (561024,380413), (560885,380305)