Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015

8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015

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N ZNED MC Z[M JDONJD_

_ixtids Lildtids

Ydnr %Κ B> %Κ Y Ydnr %Κ B> %Κ Y

>93> 0.; ?.? >99> 3.; ?.0

>936 6.8 4.8 >996 8.3 4.4

>93? 6.> 4.4 >99? >:.? 4.0

>93: ?.: ;.? >99: >0.6 4.9

>934 :.3 8.0 >994 >.8 :.3

>933 4.0 8.4 >993 (>.9) 4.:

>93; 6.: 4.8 >99; (:.>) 4.9

>938 3.: 9.8 >998 (0.3) :.9

>939 ;.; 8.0 >999 >.4 4.4

6



Bmldtnry Pmeioy

B>nlj Lmbilne KJP >9:3-6008

0

6000

:000

3000

8000

>0000

>6000

>:000

>3000

> 9 : 3

> 9 : 8

> 9 4 0

> 9 4 6

> 9 4 :

> 9 4 3

> 9 4 8

> 9 3 0

> 9 3 6

> 9 3 :

> 9 3 3

> 9 3 8

> 9 ; 0

> 9 ; 6

> 9 ; :

> 9 ; 3

> 9 ; 8

> 9 8 0

> 9 8 6

> 9 8 :

> 9 8 3

> 9 8 8

> 9 9 0

> 9 9 6

> 9 9 :

> 9 9 3

> 9 9 8

6 0 0 0

6 0 0 6

6 0 0 :

6 0 0 3

6 0 0 8

F i e e i m l s m c T _ J

B> Lmbilne KJP

B>/ Lmbilne KJP >9:3-6008

0

0.04

0.>

0.>4

0.6

0.64

0.?

0.?4

0.:

0.:4

> 9 : 8

> 9 4 >

> 9 4 :

> 9 4 ;

> 9 3 0

> 9 3 ?

> 9 3 3

> 9 3 9

> 9 ; 6

> 9 ; 4

> 9 ; 8

> 9 8 >

> 9 8 :

> 9 8 ;

> 9 9 0

> 9 9 ?

> 9 9 3

> 9 9 9

6 0 0 6

6 0 0 4

6 0 0 8

B > / L m b i l n e K J P



Cilnloine Bnradt Ibpnot ml Vdne Notivity

Pdrcdot Ilcmrbntiml - Omst mc Culjs Mley

Ibpdrcdot Ilcmrbntiml - Omst Peus Nvnienfieity

• Culjilk Omlstrnilts

• Visa Omlstrnilts

‟ Eiquijity

‟

Jdcnuet/Vdkuentmry ‟ Bmrne Hnznrj

:



Jdpmsit Culjilk

• Omst / Pny-Mut• Wdrm Iltdrdst Vntd Odieilk (Lm Pny-Mut, Jisordtimlnry Pny-Mut)

• Ourrdlt Prnotiod (Bnradt Pny-Mut)

• Jurntiml• Dvdr Ilordnsilk Jdpmsits (Emlk Jurntiml)

• Ceuotuntilk Jdpmsits (_hmrt, Tlodrtnil Jurntiml)

Zrnjitimlne Vdkibd ‟ Jdpmsits nrd Pdrbnldlt, Wdrm

Pnymut Culjilk (Dquity)

Nbmult mc Jdpmsit ―Dquity‒ (Znx nlj _ufsijy) _dt

fy Bmldtnry Pmeioy

4



Iltdrdst Fdnrilk Jdpmsits

• Pnybdlts Fnsdj ml Bnradt ―Priod‒ mc Eiquij Culjilk

• Sneud mc Jdpmsits Jdpdljs ml _tnfieity/Jurntiml mc Jdpmsit Fnsd

• Dvdr Ilordnsilk Jdpmsit Fnsd Ibpeids Sneud is thnt mc Pdrbnldlt Culjilk

(Njgustnfed Vntd Emlk Zdrb Fmljs)

• ―Dxtrdbd‒ Pmeioy Iltdrvdltimls Ibpey Jdpmsit Culjilk Vdvdrsne ‟

Zdbpmrnry, Tlodrtnil Culjilk

• ―Dxtrdbd‒ Pmeioy is _dec-Onlodeeilk tm _mbd Jdkrdd

3



Histmrione Vmed mc T_ Fnla Ordjit

Ydnr

>944

>930

>934>939

>9;?

>9;9

>98?

>989>996

>993

600?

600;

60>?

Pdrodlt Fnla Ordjit

66.;

6?.0

6:.:64.:

6?.:

66.:

6?.0

60.9

>8.4

60.6

>:.?

>4.:

>?.0

;

Lml-Cilnloine Fusildss Ordjit



Visa Bnlnkdbdlt nlj Fnlailk _truoturd

Fnla Notivitids

• Zrnlsnotiml Prmodssilk ‟ Ombpdtitivd Bnradt,Emw Visa, Emw Vdturl

• Emone Fnlailk (Emnls, Jdpmsits) ‟ Emone _onedNjvnltnkds (Ilcmrbntiml, Mpdrntimls)

• Kemfne Ilvdstbdlt mc Dxodss Culjs ‟ Ombpdtitivd

Bnradt, Hikh Visa, Emw Vdturl

• _tnfieity, Prujdltine Vdkuentiml Ilvmevds Prdvdltiml / Omltrme mc Kemfne Ilvdstbdlt

• Domlmbio Sneud Njjdj il Emone Fnlailk

8



9



Omlsdqudlods mc Ilcmrbntimlne Njvnltnkds

• Emone / Lntimlne Cilnloine Ilstitutimls jmbilntd

• Gnpnldsd fnlas il Gnpnl

• Kdrbnl ilsurnlod o., il Kdrbnly

• Emone vdlturd onpitne cirbs

• T._. emone fnlas

• Emone Ilvdstbdlt Prdcdrdlod (Cdejstdil ‟ Hmrmian, Hufdrbnl)

• Mvdrsdns notivitids mc cilnloine ilstitutimls uljdr pdrcmrb

>0



>>



Pmeioy Netdrlntivds

• _truoturne ‟ Emone Fnlailk

Smeoadr Vued

• Cilnloine ‟ Edvdrnkd Bnlnkdbdlt

>6



>?



N ZNED MC Z[M JDONJD_

_ixtids Lildtids

Ydnr %Κ B> %Κ Y Ydnr %Κ B> %Κ Y

>93> 0.; ?.? >99> 3.; ?.0

>936 6.8 4.8 >996 8.3 4.4

>93? 6.> 4.4 >99? >:.? 4.0

>93: ?.: ;.? >99: >0.6 4.9

>934 :.3 8.0 >994 >.8 :.3

>933 4.0 8.4 >993 (>.9) 4.:

>93; 6.: 4.8 >99; (:.>) 4.9

>938 3.: 9.8 >998 (0.3) :.9

>939 ;.; 8.0 >999 >.4 4.4

>:



>4



>3



>;



Durm Nrdn Ibfnenlods

>8

Omultry Ourrdlt Noot _urpeus

(%)

Kmvt _urpeus

(%)

Iltdrdst Vntd

(>0 YV)

6009 60>> 6009 60>> 60>>

Kdrbnly 4.; 4.; (?.6) (>.0) >.6:

Ldthdrenljs :.6 9.3 (4.4) (:.3) >.38

Nustrin 6.; 6.> (:.>) (6.3) >.89

Cilenlj >.9 (0.8) (6.4) (0.3) >.:8

Crnlod (>.:) (6.6) (;.3) (4.6) 6.09

Irdenlj (6.8) 0.: (>:.0) (>?.0) 4.36

Itney (>.9) (?.:) (4.:) (?.9) 3.0?

_pnil (:.8) (?.3) (>>.6) (8.9) 3.;9

Pmrtukne (>>.0) (3.8) (>0.6) (:.6) >0.:;

Krddod (>0.9) (8.9) (>4.3) (9.6) 6:.63

Dstmlin, Euxdbfurk ‟ _urpeus (ON)

_emvnain, _emvdlin ‟ _bnee Jdcioit (ON), 4-8% Kmvt Jdcioit

Oyprus ‟ Fik Jdcioit (ON), 3% Kmvt Jdcioit

Bnetn - LN



Kemfne Ibfnenlods7 T_ _nvilks Vntd

>9

Ydnr _nvilks/Jispmsnfed Ilombd (%)

>930 >0.0

>9;0 >6.3

>980 >0.3

>984 8.3

>990 ;.8

>994 3.:

6000 :.0

6004 6.3

600; ?.0

6008 4.0

6009 3.>

60>0 4.3

60>> 4.;

60>6 4.3

60>? :.4

60>: ^> :.0

Zmp ‟ 60% 7 >4% _nvilks 40% Ilombd ;.4% _nvilks

Fmttmb ‟ 80%7 40% Ilombd (;.0%)_nvilks (?.4%) _nvilks



Zypione Fusildss Oyoeds

Dbpirione

• Jdbnlj (_uppey) _hmoa

• Ilvdltmry, Onpnoity Nooubuentiml (Jdft Cilnlodj)

• Fusildss Fnenlod _hddt Jdtdrimrntiml

• _hmrt _hnrp Omltrnotiml (3-9 bmlths)

• Ilvdltmry, Ilvdstbdlt Vdjuotiml

•

Fusildss Onsh Cemw Ibprmvdbdlt• Fnenlod _hddt Vdstmrntiml, Dxpnlsiml (:8 Bmlths Peus)

Zhdmrdtione

• Cirbs Hnvd Ilcmrbntimlne (Znx) Ilodltivds tm Edvdr-Tp

• Ilcmrbntimlne Omlstrnilts Vdstriot Cilnloine Bnradt

Jdedvdrnkilk (Dquity _ned) Dspdoineey Tljdr Orisis Omljitimls

• Fnenlod _hddt Vdstmrntiml Crmb Iltdrlne Onsh Cemws nlj Ilcmrbntiml Noquisitiml MvdrZibd

60



Emlk Zdrb Oyoeds

• Jdprdssiml

>9?0-6 OmltrnotimlVdentivdey _emw Vdomvdry

Lml-Vdomvdry(Nrkdltiln)

• Ourrdlt Vdodssiml

Emlk-Eivdj Omltrnotiml(Krddod, Itney, Durmpd)Vdentivdey _emw Vdomvdry(Gnpnl)

6>



Netdrlntivd Zhdmry

(>) _dotmrne Omeenpsd (Kemfneey)

• _dotmr Tljdr Prdssurd

• Onpnoity Ilordnsd, Priod Jdoeild

• Emone Ibpmvdrishbdlt, Ibbmfieity

• Onpnoity Ilordnsd

(6) _dotmr tm Domlmby Zrnlsbissiml

• Nsybbdtrio Jdbnlj Vdspmlsds tm Priod Bmvdbdlts

• Omlstrnildj _pdljilk

• Lml-Eildnr Vdspmlsd

• Emone _drviod Ibpnot (Ibbmfieity)

(?) Iltdrlntimlne Ombpdtitiml

• Prmtdotimlisb

• Jdvneuntiml

• Omlstrnilts ‟ Kemfne Fnenlod, Cilnloine Omlsdqudlods

66



Jdprdssiml Nlneysis• Nkrioueturne Omeenpsd

‟ >960s [dna

‟ >969-?6 Priod Omeenpsd

‟ >969-?6 Ilombd Omeenpsd

‟ >9?0-?6 Bmfieity Omeenpsd

(?0-?4% T_ Pmpuentiml)

• Zrnlsbissiml tm Frmnjdr Domlmby ‟ Nkrioueturne Jdbnlj Omeenpsd Mutwdikhs Fdldcits mc Emwdr Cmmj Priods

‟ Vurne _drviod Ilombd Omeenpsd

‟ Jdft Jdcentiml Ibpnot

• Iltdrlntimlne Ombpdtitiml ‟ Omultry Vdomvdrids Vdentdj tm Jdvneuntimls (Nrkdltiln, Nustrnein)

‟ Jdvneuntiml Omlstrnilt Prdvdlt Kemfne Vdomvdry

• Pmeioy _meutiml ‟ [mrej [nr II Cilnlods Vurne tm Trfnl Zrnlsitiml

‟ Lml-Vdnppdnrnlod mc Jdprdssiml

‟ Lml-Vdomvdry (Nrkdltiln)

6?



Ourrdlt Orisis

• Bnlucnoturilk Omeenpsd

- Zdbpmrneey Dxtdljdj

(T_ >9;9-8:1 Gnpnl >989, Nsin Orisis)

- Orisis Kdldrntdj fy Hukd Nsinl Onpnoity

Njjitimls (Pmst ‟ 6000)

• Zrnlsbissiml tm Frmnjdr Domlmby

• Iltdrlntimlne Ombpdtitiml

- Nsinl Ourrdloy Bnlnkdbdlt

- Durm Ibfnenlods

• Pmeioy _meutiml

- Lmwhdrd il _ikht

6:

Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015

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