Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting™ TM Welcome to Earthquake Country: Impact of future quakes Mary Lou Zoback, Ph.D. Vice President, Earthquake Risk Applications Risk Management Solutions Newark, CA Joint BARCfirst-BENS-BRMA Infrastructure Symposium June 25 th , 2009
Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting™ TM Welcome to Earthquake Country: Impact of future quakes Mary Lou Zoback, Ph.D. Vice President, Earthquake.
Jan 13, 2016
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Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting™
TM
Welcome to Earthquake Country: Impact of future quakes
Mary Lou Zoback, Ph.D.Vice President, Earthquake Risk ApplicationsRisk Management SolutionsNewark, CA
Joint BARCfirst-BENS-BRMA Infrastructure Symposium June 25th, 2009
CONFIDENTIAL© 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
TM
1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS
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Available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/1989
CONFIDENTIAL© 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
TM
1906 M7.9 simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS
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Available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/1906
CONFIDENTIAL© 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
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FORECAST:
Major earthquake likely in the next 30 years
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Major Faults in the San Francisco Bay Area
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Measuring plate motion directly
with GPS
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Mean Recurrence Past 12 quakes
165 ± 61 yrs
Past 5 quakes138 ± 58 yrs
Past 9 quakes 151 ± 64 yrs
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18,
(1836-1906)70
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FORECAST:
Major earthquake likely in the next 30 years
CONFIDENTIAL© 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
TM
Past 5 quakes
1906 M7.9 simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS
Silicon Valley perspective
12
Available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/1906
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Simulation of the 1906 Earthquake (Shawn Larsen, Lawrence Livermore National Lab)Directivity =
Energy focused in direction of fault rupture
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1906 - The Big One The Bad One(Shawn Larsen, Lawrence Livermore National Lab)
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Vulnerable to floods - 1986
California’s Levee Problem strong shaking causes liquefaction and collapse Bay salt water rushes in shuts down drinking water for 2/3 Californians
(20-30% S CA water supply)
Torres et al. (2000)
Sacramento
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WHO WILL PAY?
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HurricanesPast
Quakes Quake Scenarios
$0.0
Historic losses from public records, scenario losses from RMS RiskLink 9.0
CONFIDENTIAL© 2008 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
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HurricanesPast
Quakes Quake Scenarios
$0.0
Historic losses from public records, scenario losses from RMS RiskLink 9.0
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