Brilliant Brilliant Congratulations to ELSA’s Team Congratulations to ELSA’s Team Think of NIA when it comes to Think of NIA when it comes to funding analyses of ELSA or funding analyses of ELSA or ELSA in conjunction with HRS, ELSA in conjunction with HRS, SHARE, SAGE, etc. SHARE, SAGE, etc.
Brilliant
Mar 19, 2016
Brilliant. Congratulations to ELSA’s Team Think of NIA when it comes to funding analyses of ELSA or ELSA in conjunction with HRS, SHARE, SAGE, etc. ELSA Wave 2. Richard Suzman ELSA London 2006 Behavioral and Social Research Program, NIA, NIH. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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BrilliantBrilliant Congratulations to ELSA’s TeamCongratulations to ELSA’s Team
Think of NIA when it comes to Think of NIA when it comes to funding analyses of ELSA or ELSA in funding analyses of ELSA or ELSA in conjunction with HRS, SHARE, SAGE, conjunction with HRS, SHARE, SAGE, etc.etc.
ELSA Wave 2ELSA Wave 2
Richard SuzmanRichard SuzmanELSA London 2006ELSA London 2006
Behavioral and Social Research Behavioral and Social Research Program, NIA, NIHProgram, NIA, NIH
United Nations Projected % of Global Population Revision 2004, low variant
Age <5
Age 65+
0
5
10
15
20
25
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
% o
f Glo
bal P
opul
atio
n
Actual Projected
Aging is Global and changing the world Aging is Global and changing the world as we know itas we know it
Expectations of life expectancy might be too low and Expectations of life expectancy might be too low and Longer life expectancy needs to be paid forLonger life expectancy needs to be paid for, in part by , in part by working longerworking longer
Realization of the macroeconomic effects of global aging is Realization of the macroeconomic effects of global aging is attracting attention. How will China's aging impact the USA attracting attention. How will China's aging impact the USA and UK?and UK?
Contrary to expectations disability has declined in he Contrary to expectations disability has declined in he USA, so aging is plasticUSA, so aging is plastic
Reducing age-related disability should become a Reducing age-related disability should become a global prioritiesglobal priorities
Research (biomedical, social and behavioral) is essential for Research (biomedical, social and behavioral) is essential for reducing disability fasterreducing disability faster
Origins of ELSAOrigins of ELSA HRSHRS Disability Decline –trends in OECD Disability Decline –trends in OECD
countriescountries Gruber Wise project on public pensions Gruber Wise project on public pensions
and labor force participationand labor force participation Denver Summit Meeting of the G-7/8Denver Summit Meeting of the G-7/8 Chance meeting -1997Chance meeting -1997 Denver Communiqué and NIA’s funding of Denver Communiqué and NIA’s funding of
an NAS panel an NAS panel NIA and NIH attitudes toward funding NIA and NIH attitudes toward funding
research outside the USAresearch outside the USA
Number of Chronically Disabled AmericansAge 65 and Over (In Millions)
Source: National Long Term Care Survey 1982-1999 (Kenneth Manton, Ph.D.) March 2004
Total PopulationAge 65+
26.9 Million
Total PopulationAge 65+
30.8 Million
Total PopulationAge 65+
33.1 Million
Total PopulationAge 65+
36.4 Million
6.4 7.0 7.1
7.5
8.3
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 19984
6
8
10
Based on decliningdisability rate since 1982
If disability rate did notchange since 1982
2000
7.0
9.2
Projected 2004
9.9
7.3
Projections of Number of Disabled Americans Age 65 & Over(in millions)
Source: National Long Term Care Survey 1982-1994 (Kenneth Manton, Ph.D.) Revised November 1999
1996 2004 2012 2020 2028 2036 2044 20520.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
1.5% decline per annum (1989-1994)
20.2
7.38.6
7.0
10.4
22
Retirement Policy Shapes Retirement Policy Shapes Retirement BehaviorRetirement Behavior
Perc
ent E
arly
Ret
irem
ent
Public Pension Percent Penalty for Continued Work20 40 60 80 100
30
40
50
60
USSweden
CanadaSpain
Germany
UK
FranceHolland
Belgium
Italy
Gruber and Wise (2000), “Gruber and Wise (2000), “Social Security and Retirement Around the World.”Social Security and Retirement Around the World.”
NIA Sponsored NRC ReportNIA Sponsored NRC Report: : Preparing for an Aging WorldPreparing for an Aging World
Expert recommendations for:Expert recommendations for:
International research International research agendaagenda
Comparable Data needed to Comparable Data needed to implement that agendaimplement that agenda
National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National Research.”Research.”
Value of an International Research Value of an International Research AgendaAgenda
Differences in age structure across countriesDifferences in age structure across countries
Countries are adapting with policy changesCountries are adapting with policy changes
Provides natural experiments to analyze some Provides natural experiments to analyze some NIA/BSR Areas of EmphasisNIA/BSR Areas of Emphasis
• Increasing Health ExpectancyIncreasing Health Expectancy• Health, Work, and RetirementHealth, Work, and Retirement• Interventions and Behavior ChangeInterventions and Behavior Change• Genetics, Behavior, and the Social EnvironmentGenetics, Behavior, and the Social Environment• The Burden of Illness and the Efficiency of Health The Burden of Illness and the Efficiency of Health
Systems.Systems.
Why Cross-national Research?Why Cross-national Research? Macroeconomic challenges require Macroeconomic challenges require
microeconomic responsesmicroeconomic responses Demographic and institutional variation make Demographic and institutional variation make
detection of causality easierdetection of causality easier Need cross-nationally comparable dataNeed cross-nationally comparable data SHARE: Ex ante harmonization…SHARE: Ex ante harmonization… ……within Europe and with HRSwithin Europe and with HRS Balancing comparability and Balancing comparability and
experimentation/individuality – NIA funding a experimentation/individuality – NIA funding a network meeting to enhance coordinationnetwork meeting to enhance coordination
NRC Panel RecommendationsNRC Panel Recommendations
Creation of measures that Creation of measures that are conceptually comparable are conceptually comparable across societies across societies ((harmonizationharmonization))
Database development that Database development that can support critical can support critical multidisciplinary research multidisciplinary research
National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National Research.”Research.”
The NRC Panel Recommendations include:
BSR Data DevelopmentBSR Data Development The Health and Retirement Study served The Health and Retirement Study served
as a template for similar studies in other as a template for similar studies in other countries.countries.
• English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)• Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in
Europe (SHARE)Europe (SHARE)• Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS)Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS)• In the works: Israel, Ireland, the Czech In the works: Israel, Ireland, the Czech
Republic, Poland, Korea (KLOSA), China, and Republic, Poland, Korea (KLOSA), China, and Japan.Japan.
• SAGE and INDEPTHSAGE and INDEPTH
Cross National Studies of Cross National Studies of Retirement and HealthRetirement and Health
BSR supports several studies that BSR supports several studies that examine work and retirement in a examine work and retirement in a cross-national context:cross-national context:
Wise P01Wise P01 Kapteyn P01Kapteyn P01 Murray P01Murray P01
***
Israel
SE
DK
IE
DE
CH
ATFR
SP IT
GR
BENL PL
CZ
UK
A laboratory for cross-national social science & policy analysis
USASV
KoreaJapan
Study on Global Ageing and Adult Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE)Health (SAGE)
Six countries from WHS (China, Ghana, Six countries from WHS (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russian Federation & South India, Mexico, Russian Federation & South Africa)Africa)
Ten INDEPTH sites Ten INDEPTH sites (6 with NIA funds, 4 with own funding)(6 with NIA funds, 4 with own funding)
Links to SHARELinks to SHARE
Comparisons to data from MHAS, SABE, Comparisons to data from MHAS, SABE, ELSA, HRS, otherELSA, HRS, other
Evidence and Information for Policy - Global Study on Ageing
SAGE and INDEPTHSAGE and INDEPTH
•Mexico•South Africa•Ghana
•China•India•Russia
•Kenya•Tanzania•Bangladesh
•Viet Nam•Indonesia
Observations on ELSA-2Observations on ELSA-2 NIA welcomes secondary data analytic NIA welcomes secondary data analytic
grant proposalsgrant proposals Chronic conditions limiting ability to work –Chronic conditions limiting ability to work –
potential interventions to permit older potential interventions to permit older workers to stay on the job longerworkers to stay on the job longer
Ending of compulsory retirement agesEnding of compulsory retirement ages Perceptions of ageing – epiphenomenon or Perceptions of ageing – epiphenomenon or
causal -is there more than meets the eye?causal -is there more than meets the eye? Disability trendsDisability trends GeneticsGenetics Concerns re refusal rateConcerns re refusal rate Not only a database, but growing scientific Not only a database, but growing scientific
communitycommunity
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