Briefing to the Select Committee on Economic Development The South African Petroleum Industry Association November 2011.

Briefing to the Select Committee on Economic Development

The South African Petroleum Industry Association

November 2011

Presentation outline

1. SAPIA overview

2. Benefits of the South African petroleum industry

3. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

4. LPG economic regulation and legislation

5. LPG security of supply

6. Challenges

7. Way forward

November 2011

SAPIA overview

Membership

– BP Southern Africa (Pty) Limited– Chevron South Africa (Pty) Limited– Engen Petroleum Limited– Sasol Limited– Shell South Africa Marketing (Pty) Limited– The Petroleum Oil and Gas Corporation of South Africa (Pty) Limited (‘PetroSA’)– Total South Africa (Pty) Limited

November 2011

Benefits of the SA petroleum industry‘Energy is the engine room of a country’s economy.’

- Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe

Benefits of the SA petroleum industry

November 2011

• The petroleum industry is a significant source of jobs, income and taxes. Its economic significance is larger than suggested by direct measures, because it interacts with many other industries and has a wider effect than most industrial sectors.

• The petroleum industry is also considered to be the back bone of the economy because it is the primary source of energy in the world.

• Petroleum is also the raw material for many chemical products, including pharmaceuticals, solvents, fertilisers, pesticides, paints, packaging, detergents and plastics.

Benefits of the SA petroleum industry

November 2011

The SA petroleum industry accounts for:

• More than 100 000 jobs (direct and indirect employment);• R195-billion in total sales;• R5-billion in annual payroll;• R40-billion in annual excise and sales taxes;• R190-million in income tax; and• R158-million spent by SAPIA member companies on corporate social investment projects during 2010.

• The member companies’ corporate social investment programmes are directed towards seven main areas: education; health and welfare; environment; community development/skills development; arts, culture and sport development; road safety; and job creation.

Liquefied Petroleum GasWhat is it and for what is it used?

LPG – what is it and for what is it used?

November 2011

• Mixture of hydrocarbons, mainly Propane (C3’s) and Butane (C4’s)

• Gaseous liquids recovered from the processing of natural gas and the refining of crude oil.

• Gaseous at ambient temperature and pressure, yet liquid when stored and transported under pressure or in refrigerated state.

• Wide range of uses:• Households• Commercial – restaurants• Industrial - heating of bitumen for road building and roofing, firing furnaces,

welding equipment, industrial food production (bread), ceramics, brick-making, forging and bending, galvanising and special metallurgical processes.

• Agricultural & transport fuel

Liquefied Petroleum GasEconomic regulation and legislation

Economic regulation and legislation

November 2011

MAXIMUM REFINERY GATE PRICE OF LPG

•Minister of Energy sets the maximum refinery gate price (MRGP) of LPG.

•Refinery gate price means:• The maximum price at which a refinery shall be permitted to

market LPG for consumption within RSA.

•The MRGP is calculated as follows:• Average c/l Basic Fuel Price (BFP) of 93 Octane LRP for the

month preceding the price adjustment• Convert the BFP – density of 0.75• Rand value minus R74.00 per metric ton• Expressed in RSA c/l – density factor of 0.555

•The current MRGP = R8.15/kg

Economic regulation and legislation

November 2011

Maximum Retail Price of LPG

•Minister of Energy set maximum retail prices for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for residential customers on a monthly basis.

•The maximum retail price includes the following elements:

• Maximum Refinery Gate Price (MRGP) for LPG;• Primary transport costs (zone differential);• Operating expenses;• Working capital;• Depreciation• Final distribution costs;• Wholesale margin; and• Retail margin.

•The current maximum retail price = R21.60/kg in Gauteng

Economic regulation and legislation

November 2011

Maximum Retail Price of LPG…

•Challenges that need to be considered:• MRGP• Primary transport cost – true reflection of the distances• Is the full value chain reflected in the price build up, e.g.

secondary filling of cylinders filling of cylinders?• Clarification of working rules and finalisation of draft regulation

Liquefied Petroleum GasSecurity of Supply

South Africa – Estimated Refinery Yields – 2010 (PFC Energy)

South Africa - Estimated Refinery Utilization Rates (PFC Energy)

Secunda and Mosselbay on oil equivalent basis

Current LPG shortage

November 2011

Shortage due to:• Early shutdown – due to fire• Late start-up after maintenance• Un-planned shutdown• Supply unable to meet demand• Long import lead-times• Limited import facilities

Outlook• Chevref producing to plan • Enref planned shutdown, expected back 3rd week of November• Natref producing to plan• PetroSA unplanned shutdown, not producing, expected back 2nd week of November• Sapref producing but not to plan• Sasol Synfuels producing to plan

Situation expected to improve as supply chain is filled by increased production and lower heating demand.

Consumption of petroleum products in SA

November 2011

LPG Production and Importation

November 2011

• At the current MRGP refineries typically utilise LPG streams to manufacture petrol. MRGP not reflective of LPG supply and demand (local/international)

• In order to meet the shortfall suppliers would want to import LPG. However:• Limited LPG import facilities and• Imports are uneconomic at current MRGP.

• Therefore – urgent need for:

• Pricing of LPG at refinery gate and import terminal at a price that encourages LPG production at local refineries;

• Review of the current discount of R74/ton which is not based on any operational reality; and

• Review of coastal storage and handling element in MRGP – to incentivise investment

Response to the shortage

November 2011

• Logistics Planning Team (LPT) chaired by the Department of Energy (DoE) monitors supply of petroleum products

• SAPIA members submit production and stock data to the DoE

• Industry response actions are discussed and agreed to

• DoE monitors implementation of remedial actions

• Within LPT there is consensus view that LPG supply situation will only improve once all refineries are back on full production.

Challenges - Infrastructure

November 2011

• Lack of import terminals (currently only two – one in Richards Bay maximum capacity 3.7 kt and two spheres in Port Elizabeth maximum capacity 1.1kt)

• Appetite for investment definitely exists by industry players• Ability to make a return on investment hampered by regulated price levels

• Appetite suppressed by bureaucratic administrative procedures (regulatory processes)

• Lack of resources for rail movements of product (rail tank cars)

• No synergy between government departments (NERSA versus DoE versus TNPA)

Challenges - Pricing

November 2011

Way forward

November 2011

• Address complaints that have been received about the current regulations and rules relating to:

• Maximum Refinery Gate Price• LPG pricing at a level that encourages local production• LPG pricing at a level that encourages importation

• Maximum Retail Price for residential customers

• Annual cost adjustments

• Incentivise the industry to build import facilities

End

November 2011

Thank you