Cyclone ASOBAABay of Bengal (BoB), After Hudhud, another
cyclonic storm Ashobaa shows its presence since 8-6-2015. The name
Ashobaa has been suggested by Sri Lanka. India Meteorological
Department said thatAshobaa cyclone is expected to gain in momentum
during the next few hours. At present, the cyclone is moving on
north and northwest directions.Predictions about transition of
Ashobaa cyclone: Detailed predictions carried out [9-6-2015] by the
University of Wisconsin-Madisons Cooperative Institute for
Meteorological Satellite Studies suggest that as on: 9-6-2015
Cyclone Ashobaa, moving with a speed of around 550 kilometres
towards south-southwest of Karachi will make landfall in Oman and
will never come towards Pakistan at all. [Tuesday, June 09,
20159:08:53 AM(IST)]ARY NEWS from Pakistan has reported that
Tropical cyclone Ashobaa was 1000km away from Karachi
met-department [June 9, 2015 18:45]. According to ARY NEWS report,
The Pakistan Met Department at 1600 hours Pakistan Time issued a
statement on its website. It said that Ashobaa was now at latitude
20.5 degrees North and longitude 64.5 degrees East Arabian Sea and
had moved further northwest-ward in the last sixhours at a speed of
10 km/hr.It was now about 540 km south southwest of Karachi and 600
kms east south east of Muscat. The Tropical Cyclone is likely to
intensify further and keep moving northwest-ward during the next 24
hrs.
Emirates 24|7 from UAE has reported that according to Arabic
newspaper 'Emarat Al Youm', has said that the tropical depression
located on the Indian coast can begin its impact on the UAE as
early as today evening. [1.54 AM Wednesday, 10 June 2015]. It is
further reported that: In a statement, the IMD said: The cyclonic
storm Ashobaa over east central Arabian Sea has moved in a north
northwesterly direction and lay centred at 5.30am IST (4am UAE
time) of 9 June 2015 near latitude 20.00 N and longitude 65.00 E,
about 830 km west of Mumbai, 570kms westsouthwest of Veraval,
640kms eastsoutheast of Sur, Oman and 800kms eastsoutheast of
Muscat (Oman).
According to the MeT Department New Delhi, Cyclonic
stormASHOBAAwill be moving north-north-westwards and intensify
further into a severe cyclonic storm by Wednesday night. [
Wednesday, June 10, 2015 - 10:02]
Cyclonic storm Ashobaa path:Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track
Forecasted by JTWC:
Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track Forecasted by Indian MeT Department
New Delhi:
Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track Forecasted by UAE MeT Department New
Delhi:
NameDates activePeak classificationWindspeedsPressureLand areas
affectedDamage(USD)Deaths
AshobaaJune 7 Currently activeCyclonic storm85km/h (50mph)990hPa
(29.23inHg)India, Pakistan, OmanNoneNone
III. Cyclone ASHOBAA storm warning:A. Cyclone ASHOBAA storm
warning issued by Indian MeT Department:
B. Cyclone ASHOBAA storm warning issued by JTWC Department:
Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track through Satallite images and Images
furnished by MeT Department: [Arranged in time scale method]Track
through Satallite images: Dtd 2015-Jun 08:
Track through Satallite images: Dtd 2015-Jun 09:
Track through Satallite images: Dtd 2015-Jun 10:
Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track [Calibrated Models]:
Tropical Cyclone ASHOBAA Warning Text (JTWC):
WTIO31 PGTW 101500MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR
014//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 014 01
ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON
ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY ---
WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 61.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX
HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND
DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 61.2E ---
FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.9N 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS
OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR
TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z ---
20.9N 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/
06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.9N 58.6E MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO
48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID
AT: 121200Z --- 20.7N 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ---REMARKS:101500Z POSITION
NEAR 20.9N 61.0E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 138 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING BENEATH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS ELONGATED
TO THE WEST DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 101051Z
SSMI 85GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
THAT SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION. TC ASHOBAA IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AGAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NEW STR ASSUMES STEERING. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEAKENS JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF OMAN. BEYOND TAU 36, TC 01A WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED FRICTION, DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, AND ADVECTS DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION; LEADING TO
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS STABILIZED AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//NNN
Tropical Cyclone ASHOBAA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC) WTIO51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 1506101242202015061012 01A ASHOBAA 014 01
270 03 SATL 020T000 209N 0612E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW
QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 209N
0605E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE
QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 209N 0598E 050 R034 060 NE QD
060 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD T036 209N 0586E 040 T048 207N 0569E
030 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LANDSUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 014 1. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR
20.9N 61.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED
BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055
KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF
050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034
KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080
NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N
61.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.9N 60.5E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025
NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID
AT: 111200Z --- 20.9N 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT:
270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.9N 58.6E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48
HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.7N 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030
KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ---REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 61.0E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A
(ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NMEAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH
ISLAND, OMAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXTWARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//0115060512
112N 676E 200115060518 117N 681E 200115060600 127N 683E
250115060606 134N 685E 250115060612 139N 686E 250115060618 145N
687E 250115060700 150N 686E 250115060706 156N 686E 350115060712
163N 684E 350115060718 170N 680E 400115060800 178N 674E
400115060806 183N 669E 400115060812 189N 664E 450115060818 194N
658E 450115060900 202N 651E 450115060906 206N 644E 500115060906
206N 644E 500115060912 209N 635E 500115060918 210N 627E
550115060918 210N 627E 550115061000 210N 620E 550115061000 210N
620E 550115061006 209N 615E 550115061006 209N 615E 550115061012
209N 612E 550115061012 209N 612E 55NNNN
Additional Information:
As we can observe from the above graphs, increasing in the
brightness temperature from 240K to ~290K.