Brewer - Stockholm - 12.1 2.2006 1 Uncertainty about Emission Rights and Energy Prices - and Impact on Economic Growth Thomas L. Brewer Associate Professor, Georgetown University, Washington DC and Associate Fellow, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels
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Brewer - Stockholm - 12.12.20061 Uncertainty about Emission Rights and Energy Prices - and Impact on Economic Growth Thomas L. Brewer Associate Professor,
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Brewer - Stockholm - 12.12.2006 1
Uncertainty about Emission Rights and Energy Prices
- and Impact on Economic Growth
Thomas L. BrewerAssociate Professor, Georgetown University,
Washington DCand
Associate Fellow, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels
Brewer - Stockholm - 12.12.2006 2
Outline of Comments
Uncertainty and Transparency Issues about the Emissions Trading Scheme
Three Episodes
Current Situation
Offsetting Border Measures to Address Energy Price and Competitiveness Issues
Brewer - Stockholm - 12.12.2006 3
Three Episodes of Regulatory Uncertainty and Their Effects
on EUA Prices
• Spring 2004
• Spring 2006
• Autumn 2006
Brewer - Stockholm - 12.12.2006 4
EUA Prices:February 2003-June 2004
(From Point Carbon – used with permission)
Brewer - Stockholm - 12.12.2006 6
Price developments on the EU market: Nov. 05 – Oct. 06
29.20
30,40
9.25
8.95
12.50
21.65
15.05
32.85
17.9020,25
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
01/1
1/20
05
14/1
1/20
05
25/1
1/20
05
08/1
2/20
05
21/1
2/20
05
04/0
1/20
06
17/0
1/20
06
30/0
1/20
06
10/0
2/20
06
23/0
2/20
06
08/0
3/20
06
21/0
3/20
06
03/0
4/20
06
18/0
4/20
06
02/0
5/20
06
15/0
5/20
06
26/0
5/20
06
08/0
6/20
06
21/0
6/20
06
04/0
7/20
06
17/0
7/20
06
28/0
7/20
06
10/0
8/20
06
23/0
8/20
06
05/0
9/20
06
18/0
9/20
06
29/0
9/20
06
12/1
0/20
06
Pri
ce [
€/to
n]
Spot 2006 2007 2008
Brewer - Stockholm - 12.12.2006 8
Current Situation:Commission Decision of 29 November
• 10 proposed NAPs rejected by the Commission (including Sweden, Germany and UK)