Bread Basket of Africa. Hint Any Guesses.

Bread Basket of Africa

Hint

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bc/LocationZimbabwe.svg

Any Guesses

Lowest ever coal production in 2006 since 1946

UNEMPLOYMENT

Price of 3 eggs - 100 billion dollars

2008 (July)USD $1 = ZWD $18,700,000,000

CHAIN OF EVENTS

Zimbabwe 1990’s

Fixed prices

Banned imports

Redistributed land

Printed up more money

Gov’tsolution EFFECT

President Robert Mugabe

Shortages

More shortages

Still more shortages

inflation

Technically “hyperinflation”

ProblemHigh food

pricesCompetition from

USA & SA

Blacks have no land

Not enough money

HYPERINFLATION

• Inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month,which is just over 1 percent per day

• This rate of inflation leads to very large increases in the price level

• Large increase in the money supply not supported by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, resulting in an imbalance in the supply and demand for the money.

Pt=Po(1+r)t

Po =Current Price

Pt = Price after time tR= inflation rate

CHARACTERISTICS

• General population prefers to keep its wealth in non-monetary assets or in a relatively stable foreign currency.

• People regard monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a relatively stable foreign currency.

• Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power during the credit period, even if the period is short.

• Interest rates, wages and prices are linked to a price index and the cumulative inflation rate over three years approaches, or exceeds, 100%.

POSSIBLE APPROACHES TO HYPERINFLATION

Replacing the central bank with another monetary regime

1.Dollarizationi. Unofficial

ii. Semi – official

iii. Official

2. Currency Board

3. Free Banking System

CAUSES OF HYPERINFLATION IN ZIMBABWE

• Unstable Government

• Violent land reform program

• Decline of tobacco industry, manufacturing and mining sectors

• Rapid and massive increase in the amount of money printed

• Repudiation of debts to International Monetary Fund

Causes of Hyper Inflation In Zimbabwe

• Money supply causes hyperinflation in Zimbabwe is explained by the use of money printing as one of the major source for financing government deficits (MV=PY)

• Zimbabwe need to seriously reduce its money supply, among other stabilization actions. This can however be achieved if the central bank is given autonomy.

• Foreign exchange black market premium, an offshoot of misaligned exchange rate between the official fixed and parallel/black market exchange rates seems to play a significant role in the hyperinflation function for Zimbabwe.

Adaptive Inflation expectation has been inculcated in the minds of Zimbabweans. They have completely lost the confidence in the government. monetary authorities need to put serious credible measures aimed to ameliorate hyperinflationary trend, otherwise expectations will continue to influence hyperinflation in an upward direction.

The Monetarist explanation of inflation is that prices are linked to growth in the Money Supply. The quantity theory of Money states MV=PY. If we assume a constant V (velocity of circulation) and Constant Y, an increase in the Money supply leads to an increase in prices. In practise, the link between the money supply and inflation is not as simplistic as this formula states; but, as a rough rule of thumb if the money supply increases by 1000% and Real GDP stays the same you can expect inflation of around 1000%

Solution that worked !!!

January 2009 : Government allows foreign currency to try stem hyperinflation.

March 2009: Retail prices fall for the 1st time post hyperinflation

August 2010: It resumes official diamond sales.

Current Scenario in Zimbabwe

• Five foreign currencies have been granted official status

• 80 % of transaction takes place in U.S. dollars• Stock exchange trading, the payments systems

takes place in U.S. dollars• Inflation stands at 4.3% YOY as of Sep 2011• Economy is slated to rise to about 7.8% – 9% in

2012.• Zimbabwe currency likely to be reinstated by 2012

The Asset Market, Money, and Prices

Chapter 3

Chapter Outline

• What Is Money?

• Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets

• The Demand for Money

• Asset Market Equilibrium

• Money Growth and Inflation

What Is Money?

• Money: assets that are widely used and accepted as payment

• The functions of money– Medium of exchange– Unit of account– Store of value

What Is Money?

• The functions of money– Medium of exchange

• Barter is inefficient—double coincidence of wants• Money allows people to trade their labor for

money, then use the money to buy goods and services in separate transactions

• Money thus permits people to trade with less cost in time and effort

• Money allows specialization, so people don’t have to produce their own food, clothing, and shelter

What Is Money?

• The functions of money– Unit of account

• Money is basic unit for measuring economic value• Simplifies comparisons of prices, wages, and

incomes• The unit-of-account function is closely linked with

the medium-of-exchange function

What Is Money?

• The functions of money– Store of value

• Money can be used to hold wealth• Most people use money only as a store of value for

a short period and for small amounts, because it earns less interest than money in the bank

What Is Money?

• In Touch with Data and Research:

Money in a prisoner-of-war camp– Radford article on the use of cigarettes as money

– Cigarette use as money developed because barter was inefficient

– Even nonsmokers used cigarettes as money

– Characteristics of cigarettes as money: standardized (so value was easy to ascertain), low in value (so “change” could be made), portable, fairly sturdy

– Problem with having a commodity money like cigarettes: can’t smoke them and use them as money at the same time

What Is Money?

• Measuring money– The M1 monetary aggregate

• Currency and traveler’s checks held by the public• Demand deposits (which pay no interest)• Other checkable deposits (which may pay interest)

– All components of M1 are used in making payments, so M1 is the closest money measure to our theoretical description of money

What Is Money?


• M2 = M1 + less moneylike assets

– Additional assets in M2:• savings deposits• small (< $100,000) time deposits• noninstitutional MMMF balances• money-market deposit accounts (MMDAs)

What Is Money?


• Savings deposits include passbook savings accounts

• Time deposits bear interest and have a fixed term (substantial penalty for early withdrawal)

• MMMFs invest in very short-term securities and allow checkwriting

• MMDAs are offered by banks as a competitor to MMMFs

What Is Money?

• In Touch with Data and Research:

Where have all the dollars gone?– In 2009, U.S. currency averaged about $2800

per person, but surveys show people only hold about $100

– Some is held by businesses and the underground economy, but most is held abroad

– Foreigners hold dollars because of inflation in their local currency and political instability

What Is Money?

• Where have all the dollars gone?– Since currency is 1/2 of M1 and over half of

currency is held abroad, foreigners hold over 1/4 of M1

• The data show large fluctuations in M1 when major events occur abroad, like military conflicts

– The United States benefits from foreign holdings of our currency, since we essentially get an interest-free loan

What Is Money?

• The money supply– Money supply = money stock = amount of

money available in the economy

What Is Money?

• The money supply– How does the central bank of a country

increase the money supply?• Use newly printed money to buy financial assets

from the public—an open-market purchase• To reduce the money supply, sell financial assets

to the public to remove money from circulation—an open-market sale

• Open-market purchases and sales are called open-market operations, Repo, Reverse Repo

What Is Money?

OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS (OMO’s)

The buying and selling of government securities in the open market in order to expand or contract the amount of money in the banking system. Purchases inject money into the banking system and stimulate growth while sales of securities do the opposite.

Open market operations are the principal tools of monetary policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve's goal in using this technique is to adjust the federal funds rate - the rate at which banks borrow reserves from each other.

REPO and Reverse REPO Repos are classified as a money-market instrument. They are

usually used to raise short-term capital. They are mainly used for Inflation targeting, or to achieve or maintain fixed exchange rate.

When banks require short term money, SBP will lend member banks against securities held by them. SBP will charge interest on these loans and this rate of interest is called Repo Rate. At present, Repo Rate is 9.5%.

When SBP wants to decrease the lending activities in the country, it will increase the Repo Rate. Once the Repo Rate is increased, the cost of funds to banks from SBP will increase and it will in turn increase the lending rates to customers. This will reduce the lending transactions. But if the SBP feels the need of more lending activities, it will decrease the Repo Rate and reduce the cost of funding. This will translate into lower rates on loans and lending will pick up.

Reverse REPO• If banks have excess amount with them, they can park the surplus

money with SBP and earn interest on this. The interest on such amount is called Reverse Repo Rate. At present the Reverse Repo Rate is 13%.

• SBP will increase the reverse Repo rate, if it wants to reduce liquidity in the system. Banks will be tempted to park money with SBP rather than lending, if this rate is high. At present Reverse Repo Rate is kept 100 basis points below Repo Rate.

• By adjusting CRR, SLR, Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rate, SBP will ensure that the banking system is working fine. It will adjust these factors to promote an orderly growth of the economy by controlling interest rates and liquidity in the system.

Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR).Each bank has to keep a certain percentage of its total deposits with SBP as cash reserves. It is called Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). On 30th October.2012, RBI reduced the CRR by 25 basis points to 5%. If the bank is having a deposit of 100/-, it has to keep Rs.5 as cash reserve with SBP and it can use only the balance 95 for lending or investments.

SBP uses CRR as a means to control the money supply in the system. When the money supply is on the higher side, SBP will increase the CRR to reduce the supply and vice versa.

Apply on the Instruments whose Maturity is less than 1 year and it does not generate any return.

Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR)

Every bank has to maintain at the close of every day a certain percentage of its total liabilities (Deposits) in cash, gold or government approved securities. This is called SLR. At present, the SLR is 15%.

Its role is more or less similar to CRR and controls the money circulation the banking system. If SBP wants to suck, excess liquidity from the system, it will increase the SLR. Banks will be forced to keep the higher percentage as liquid assets and its power to lend will come down.

Apply on the securities whose maturity is more than one year. They do generate return.

Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets

– How do people allocate their wealth among various assets? The portfolio allocation decision


• Expected return– Rate of return = an asset’s increase in value

per unit of time• Bank account: Rate of return = interest rate• Corporate stock: Rate of return = dividend yield +

percent increase in stock price

– Investors want assets with the highest expected return (other things equal)

– Returns not known in advance, so people estimate their expected return


• Risk– Risk is the degree of uncertainty in an asset’s

return– People don’t like risk, so they prefer assets

with low risk (other things equal)


• Liquidity– Liquidity: the ease and quickness with which an

asset can be traded– Money is very liquid– Assets like automobiles and houses are very

illiquid— long time and large transaction costs to trade them

– Stocks and bonds are fairly liquid– Investors prefer liquid assets (other things

equal)


• Time to maturity– Time to maturity: the amount of time until a

financial security matures and the investor is repaid the principal

– Expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates

• The idea that investors compare returns on bonds with differing times to maturity

• In equilibrium, holding different types of bonds over the same period yields the same expected return


• Time to maturity– Because long-term interest rates usually

exceed short-term interest rates, a risk premium exists: the compensation to an investor for bearing the risk of holding a long-term bond


• Types of assets and their characteristics– People hold many different assets, including money,

bonds, stocks, houses, and consumer durable goods• Money has a low return, but low risk and high liquidity• Bonds have a higher return than money, but have more risk

and less liquidity• Stocks pay dividends and can have capital gains and losses,

and are much more risky than money• Ownership of a small business is very risky and not liquid at

all, but may pay a very high return• Housing provides housing services and the potential for

capital gains, but is quite illiquid


• Asset Demands– Trade-off among expected return, risk, liquidity,

and time to maturity– Assets with low risk and high liquidity, like

checking accounts, have low expected returns– Investors consider diversification: spreading out

investments in different assets to reduce risk– The amount a wealth holder wants of an asset is

his or her demand for that asset– The sum of asset demands equals total wealth

The Demand for Money

• The demand for money is the quantity of monetary assets people want to hold in their portfolios– Money demand depends on expected return,

risk, and liquidity– Money is the most liquid asset– Money pays a low return– People’s money-holding decisions depend on

how much they value liquidity against the low return on money


• Key macroeconomic variables that affect money demand – Price level– Real income– Interest rates


• Price level– The higher the price level, the more money

you need for transactions– Prices are 10 times as high today as in 1935,

so it takes 10 times as much money for equivalent transactions

– Nominal money demand is thus proportional to the price level


• Real income– The more transactions you conduct, the more

money you need– Real income is a prime determinant of the

number of transactions you conduct– So money demand rises as real income rises


• Real income– But money demand isn’t proportional to real

income, since higher-income individuals use money more efficiently, and since a country’s financial sophistication grows as its income rises (use of credit and more sophisticated assets)

– Result: Money demand rises less than 1-to-1 with a rise in real income


• Interest rates– An increase in the interest rate or return on

nonmonetary assets decreases the demand for money

– An increase in the interest rate on money increases money demand

– This occurs as people trade off liquidity for return


• Interest rates– Though there are many nonmonetary assets

with many different interest rates, because they often move together we assume that for nonmonetary assets there’s just one nominal interest rate, i


• Other factors affecting money demand– Liquidity of alternative assets: Deregulation,

competition, and innovation have given other assets more liquidity, reducing the demand for money

– Payment technologies: Credit cards, ATMs, and other financial innovations reduce money demand

Summary 9

Bread Basket of Africa. Hint Any Guesses.

Documents

money slide

inflation rate slide

hint slide

hyperinflation inflation

money supply growth

money supply increases

money supply leads

shortages inflation