BRAND SOUTH AFRICA Draft Research Report The age of Disruption, Convergence, Confusion, and new Conflicts Shared with WEF Roundatable Discussion on 4IR Dr Petrus de Kock General Manager - Researcg 7 March 2019 1
BRAND SOUTH AFRICA
Draft Research Report
The age of Disruption, Convergence,
Confusion, and new Conflicts
Shared with WEF Roundatable Discussion on
4IR
Dr Petrus de Kock
General Manager - Researcg
7 March 20191
Draft Research ReportThe age of Disruption, Convergence, Confusion, and new Conflicts
Context
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Draft Research ReportThe age of Disruption, Convergence, Confusion, and new Conflicts
1. Introductory comments
2. The age of Disruption - What is the so-called 4th Industrial
Revolution?
3. The Convergence of the virtual and the organic
4. Blurred social horizons and the emergence of Confusion, New
battlefronts and Conflicts
5. New conflicts and battlefronts
6. Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis
7. Critical questions and challenges for South Africa
The age of Disruption, Convergence, Confusion, and new
Conflicts
● This briefing is structured according to the four key terms that appear
in the title. Essentially the objective is to provide an orientation to
the notion of the 4th industrial revolution, while teasing out some
possible implications for South Africa as a developing society.
● In as much as the progress of human civilisation since the dawn of
time is linked to the development of tools, techniques, technologies
and systems that can support civilisations, and societies, these
developments are often not unambiguous. It should neither be
assumed that technology or science is at any level neutral.
● This briefing aims to cut through some of the noise and hype around
technological development to identify the potentially dangerous
consequences, and benefits, hiding in the detail of the current path of
technological development as articulated in the idea of the 4th
industrial revolution.
4IR
Basic assumptions of the 4th industrial revolution
Advent of so-called pervasive computing
Pervasive computing aims to integrate two realms of human-machine interactions
These are: Merging/convergence of Information technology with Operational technology
Who is in, and who is out?
● Klaus Schwab argues that the fourth industrial revolution is,
‘…characterised by a fusion of technologies that is blurring the
lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres…
Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country.
And the breath and depth of these changes herald the
transformation of entire systems of production, management, and
governance.’
● This means that while these technologies may have significant
positive implications from an efficiency, productivity, and creative
perspective, the real impact will be at the level of human
development, job security, and ultimately the state - due in large
part to questions of inequality and permanent unemployment
faced by those who are not skilled for 21st century technologies.
Essentially it means: In this new economy, old skills won’t help.
Workers who don’t have the higher-order skills will get left out.
New battlefronts
Stemming from the above it is clear that while a host of economic benefits can accrue
from 4th industrial revolution technologies, the hidden cost of this will lie in the realm
of human agency and society. Several proponents of these technologies argue that
robotics, artificial intelligence, bio-engineering, nanotechnology, and 3D printing alone
stand not only to revolutionise the economy, but is altering human identity.
Social battlefronts
Inequality & increased societal conflict for access to basic resources;
Social media and the potential of socio-political mobilisation & manipulation;
Shedding of labour and the ultimate redundancy of human labour demand;
Alienation of individuals and communities due to increased adoption of Artificial
Intelligence systems, robotics, and bio-engineering that could create a micro-class
of technologically advanced, physically augmented humans (e.g. the Cyborg);
Exacerbated identity conflicts due to ease of disrupting societies via Internet and
virtual manipulation;
Increased surveillance and the breakdown of notions of ‘privacy’.
Political/security battlefronts
● Rising inequality poses a direct challenge to polities in terms of providing social security, and enabling environments for job creation and societal progress;
● New technologies deployed in battlefronts such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Robotic weapons platforms have already in the space of one decade revolutionised warfare with major human ethical and moral ramifications;
● Information warfare, information security and the virtualisation of conflict. In this regard the stories of Wikileaks, and cases such as Edward Snowden, hacking attacks, the utilisation of virtual platforms to facilitate terror attacks and multi-national crime syndicates are all undermining traditional notions of territorial integrity and state/human security;
● Network centric warfare and the advance of so-called 4th and 5th generation warfare theories that clearly show the extent to which new technologies have already changed the nature of warfare and how these increasingly create new battlefronts states have to contend with.
Critical questions and challenges for South Africa
As a country with several social challenges the 4th Industrial
Revolution poses daunting challenges;
For example, in the SA mining sector, questions pertaining to the
automation of underground operations often get caught between
the economic benefits and productivity improvements that come
with it, over and against the human interest in job security;
Automation in industry, mining, business process, logistics and a
host of other sectors have led to deep social tensions in societies
where it has become evident that increased automation,
roboticisation, and the replacement of humans by basic or
intelligent machines lead to the permanent loss of jobs;
Critical questions and challenges for South Africa
The Challenge Ahead
While extensive benefits and new opportunities
can open up as a result of the blurring and
integration of Information and Operational
technology, as a society with specific human
development, employment, and skills
development objectives, new disruptive
technologies can have severe unintended long-
term consequences.
AWARD WINNING NATION BRAND
Award winning research ● Brand South Africa won two awards for its domestic
perceptions research at the 2018 Southern African
Market Research Association conference. Over-all best
research award & the Kantar Innovation award.
● As winner, in 2019, Brand SA has been invited to host a
workshop at this years conference – it will be on the
same topic discussed today
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Highlightingten unique behavioural groups
Independent Humanists
Positive Enablers
Activist Supporters
Proud Democrats
Cautious Optimists
Accountability Advocates
Supporters of Heritage
Celebrators of Achievement
Uncritical Loyalists
The Politically Discontent
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SAMRA Workshop
Southern African Market Research Association Annual
Conference
Brand South Africa workshop on 4IR and its implications
for the Nation Brand & research industry – Theme: The
age of Disruption, Convergence, Confusion & new
Conflicts
● 15-16 May, Johannesburg
● www.samra.co.za
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Prepared by Brand SA Research
Contact:
Dr Petrus de Kock, GM – Research
Leigh-Gail Petersen, Research Manager
Readers are welcome to use the data
contained in this report for their own
purposes provided they acknowledge the
source as: Brand South Africa, Research &
Nation Brand Performance Presentation,
October 2015, available at:
www.brandsouthafrica.com
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