BP Energy Outlook 2030: South Africa 2012 · Shares of world primary energy China US World India ... Energy Outlook 2030 5 Oil Coal Gas ... Global liquids supply and demand Supply

BP Energy Outlook 2030

South Africa, March 2012

© BP 2012

Outline

• Global energy trends

• Liquid fuels

• Transport demand

• Refining

• South Africa

© BP 2012

four key drivers of the energy future

Demand

Growth

• GDP growth

• urbanisation

Security

of Supply

• import dependence

• resource competition Environmental

Constraints

• climate change

• local emissions

Sustainable

Resources

• Diverse resources

• non-conventionals

© BP 2012

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Non-OECD economies to drive consumption growth

OECD

Non-OECD

Billion toe

*Includes biofuels

Billion toe

Energy Outlook 2030 4

*

© BP 2012

Convergence of energy intensity and fuel shares

Energy intensity

Toe per thousand $2010 GDP

Shares of world primary energy

China US

World

India

* Includes biofuels

Energy Outlook 2030 5

Oil

Coal

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear Renew. *

© BP 2012

Conclusion

Oil

Gas

Coal

OECD

Energy can be available and

affordable

Competition / Efficient Market

Innovation / Technology

Regulation / Energy policy

Energy security an issue

CO2 emissions not on track

GDP, Energy and CO2

Index (1970=100)

GDP

Energy

CO2

Energy Outlook 2030 6

© BP 2012

Outline

• Global energy trends

• Liquid fuels

• Transport demand

• Refining

• South Africa

© BP 2012

Global liquids – demand and supply

Mb/d Demand Supply

India

Mid East

China

NGLs

Iraq Other

S&C Am

Other

Saudi

Oil Sands

Biofuels

Brazil

US

2030 level

Energy Outlook 2030 8

© BP 2012

Outline

• Global energy trends

• Liquid fuels

• Transport demand

• Refining

• South Africa

© BP 2012

Vehicle growth concentrated in the Non-OECD

Total number of vehicles

Non-OECD

OECD

US

Japan

Germany

Vehicles per thousand people

Vehicles

Energy Outlook 2030 10

Millions

South Africa

© BP 2012

Transport fuel demand is met predominantly by oil

By energy type

Billion toe

Projected car efficiency

Litres per 100 km

Energy Outlook 2030 11

© BP 2012

Policy and technology drive efficiency improvements

Global vehicle fleet in 2030

69%

4%

11%

16%

Energy Outlook 2030 12

Passenger car sales by type

© BP 2012

Outline

• Global energy trends

• Liquid fuels

• Transport demand

• Refining

• South Africa

© BP 2012

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

N. America

Middle East

Africa

Asia Pacif ic

Europe

Refinery utilisation (%)

Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon and ESAI.

<75%

© BP 2012

OECD

45

60

75

90

105

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Global liquids demand

Mb/d

Non-refined NGLs: 3

Biofuels: 3

Supply growth 2010-30 Global liquids supply and demand

Other liquids:1 1

Total liquids 16 Mb/d

=> Refined crude: 9

The implications for refining are stark

Aspac & PG have already

announced >10Mb/d of

new builds!

Crude

Bio

NGLs

Other

Energy Outlook 2030 15

© BP 2012

Outline

• Global energy trends

• Liquid fuels

• Transport demand

• Refining

• South Africa

© BP 2012

South Africa refining status

Solomon Associate 2012

Process utilization (%) Operating cost ($/UEDC) Capital investment ($/EDC)

Southeast Asia Western Europe South Africa

© BP 2012

South African Demand and Imports dependency: Petroleum, Diesel and Kerosene

Energy Outlook 2030 18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20202022 2024 2026 2028 2030

SA Share of

imports

50%

30%

12%

2030 imports diff = 180 Kb/d

22

95

64

Car efficiency

(low high)

Economic growth

(4% 3%)

Refinery utilisation

(72% 82%)

Kb/d

South Africa demand

forecast

Global demand forecast

High imports case

medium imports case

© BP 2012

South African gasoline and diesel imports

Energy Outlook 2030 19

Kb/d

Share of diesel

High Import Case Kb/d

Medium Import Case

Diesel Petrol

© BP 2012

Demand

Growth

Security

of Supply

Environmental

Constraints

Sustainable

Resources

“The Solution Set for South Africa”

Efficient Market

Technology

Energy Policy

• Increase diversity of

resources

• Increase share of renewables

• Partner with neighbours

• Invest in existing refineries

• Increase capacity

• Address infrastructure bottleneck

Embrace Low “C” economy

• Cleaner Fuels (CF2)

• Renewables energy

• Manufacturing efficiency

• GDP is growing (BRICS)

• Urbanisation momentum

• Promote energy saving

© BP 2012

Energy imbalances further improve Supply Opportunities in Africa

Gas

Oil

Coal

Billion toe

Key:

Europe

N. America

S. & C. America Africa

Mid-East

FSU

Other Asia Pacific

India

China

Energy Outlook 2030 21

Net exporters

Net importers

© BP 2012

Liquids demand driven by non-OECD transport

Liquids demand by product group

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

1990 2010 2030

Biofuels

Light

distillates

Middle

distillates

Other

Fuel Oil

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

1990 2010 2030

Non-OECD

Ind. & Other

Non-OECD

Transport

OECD Ind. &

Other

OECD

Transport

Power

Mb/d

Energy Outlook 2030 22

Liquids demand by sector

Mb/d