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THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC LINKAGESThe
balance of payments summarizes a nations international economic
transactions.
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Balance of payments accounting is based on double-entry
bookkeeping.
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Increases (decreases) in foreign currency assets show up as
debits (credits) on the balance of payments.
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The current-account balance reflects the net flow of goods,
services, and gifts.
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The capital account shows public and private lending and
investment activities.
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The official reserves account shows the net deficit or surplus
on a nations combined current and capital accounts.
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Basic macroeconomic accounting identities link domestic spending
and production to the current-account and capital-account
balances.
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A nation whose income exceeds its spending will have a domestic
savings surplus that must be invested abroad.
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A nation that produces more (less) than it spends will have a
net capital outflow (inflow)
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The current-account balance must equal the net capital
outflow.
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Japan is using its large current-account surplus to invest in
the United States.
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To improve the current-account balance, domestic savings must be
increased relative to domestic investment.
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Current-account deficits (surpluses) are not necessarily signs
of economic weakness (strength).
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A government budget deficit will worsen a nations
current-account deficit.
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The U.S. current account deficit during the 1980s was closely
related to the federal deficit.
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One proposed solution to the U.S. current-account deficit is to
devalue the dollar and make U.S. goods more competitive.
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Historical experience indicates that currency devaluation will
not cure a trade deficit.
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J-curve theory predicts that currency devaluation will initially
worsen and then improve a nations trade deficit.
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Instead of one causing the other the strong dollar and the trade
deficit may both have resulted from foreign demand for U.S.
assets.
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The price of the dollar determines the terms on which the rest
of the world is willing to finance the U.S. budget deficit.
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Protectionism is likely to reduce both imports and exports by
the same amount, leaving the trade deficit unchanged.
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Ending foreign ownership of domestic assets would eliminate a
trade deficit but slow economic growth.
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One way to reduce the trade deficit is to boost the national
savings rate.
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The large U.S. trade deficits during the 1980s and 1990s do not
appear to have harmed U.S. economics performance.
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Trade deficits, by themselves, are neither good nor bad, as
shown by the experience of United States.
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The U.S. current-account deficit reflects national preferences
for consumption, savings, and investment to which trade flows have
adjusted in a timely manner.