Bookkeeping model

BookkeepingModel

R.A.HoughtonWoodsHoleResearchCenter

August2016

Overview•  Thebookkeepingmodel

–  FullcarbonaccounEng–  Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts

•  Inputs–  Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes

•  Outputs–  Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes

•  Examples–  Global,1850-2015–  Mexico,1850-2015

•  ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs

ResponseCurves(onehectare)

Living Biomass

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Years

MgC/

ha

Wood Products

-100102030405060

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Years

MgC

Slash

-20020406080100120

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Yeas

MgC/

ha

Soil Carbon

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Years

MgC/

ha

Annual net flux

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Years

MgC/

ha

Total Carbon

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Years

MgC/

ha

Input-4pools

Outputfor1ha

Globalresultsforapproximately1990(PgCandPgC/yr)

Overview•  Thebookkeepingmodel

–  FullcarbonaccounEng–  Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts

•  Inputs–  Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes

•  Outputs–  Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes

•  Examples–  Global,1850-2015–  Mexico,1850-2015

•  ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs

Changesinlanduse

ChangesinareaCroplands(clearingandabandonment)PasturesShi[ingculEvaEon

Changesincarbonstocks(C/ha)withinforestsWoodharvest&recoveryFiremanagement

Emphasis on forests

Whenahectareisclearedforcroplandsorpasture…

Whattypeofecosystemiscleared?Whatisthebiomassofthesitecleared?

Whathappenstothebiomass?Le[onsitealiveLe[onsitedead What’sthedecayrate?Removedfromthesite.Burned

Whathappenstothesoilcarbon?WithculEvaEon,25-30%ofcarbonintopmeterislost.

Whenahectareaforestisharvested…

Whattypeofforestisharvested?Whatwasitsbiomass?

Whathappenstothebiomass?Le[onsitealive(Whatrateofrecovery?)Le[onsitedead(slash)Removedfromthesite(removals/ha)Burned

Whathappenstothesoilcarbon?Whathappenstotheharvestedmaterial?

Fuelwoodorcharcoal(1.0/yr)Pulpandpaperproducts(0.1/yr)Timber,lumber,etc.(0.01/yr)

Overview•  Thebookkeepingmodel

–  FullcarbonaccounEng–  Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts

•  Inputs–  Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes

•  Outputs–  Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes

•  Examples–  Global,1850-2015–  Mexico,1850-2015

•  ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs

Overview•  Thebookkeepingmodel

–  Directanthropogeniceffects–  FullcarbonaccounEng–  Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts

•  Inputs–  Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes

•  Outputs–  Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes

•  Examples–  Global,1850-2015–  Mexico,1850-2015

•  ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs

Carbonsourcesandsinksonlandresultfromtwoprocesses

1.Directanthropogeniceffects(management)

– Croplands,pasturelands– Forestry

ManagementorChangesinLandUse

Carbonsourcesandsinksonlandresultfromtwoprocesses

1.Directhumaneffects(management)– Croplands,pasturelands– Forestry

2.Indirectandnaturaleffects– Environmentallyinducedchangesincarbonstorage

“deforestation” tropics

extra-tropics 1.5 BMT/yr

2000-2006

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

CO2 f

lux (B

MT C

y-1)

Sink

So

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

deforestation

fossil fuel emissions

7.6

1.5

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux (B

MT C

y-1)

Sink

So

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

7.6

1.5

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux (B

MT C

y-1)

Sink

So

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

“SINKS”

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

7.6

1.5

4.1

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux (B

MT C

y-1)

Sink

So

urce

Time (y)

atmospheric CO2

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

atmospheric CO2

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

ocean

7.6

1.5

4.1

2.2

CO2 f

lux (B

MT C

y-1)

Sink

So

urce

Time (y)

2000-2006

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

atmospheric CO2

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

ocean

7.6

1.5

4.1

2.2

CO2 f

lux (B

MT C

y-1)

Sink

So

urce

Time (y)

2000-2006

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

What’s this?

atmospheric CO2

ocean

Unmanaged land

fossil fuel emissions

Land use

7.6

1.5

4.1

2.2 2.8

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux (B

MT C

y-1)

Sink

So

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

atmospheric CO2

ocean

fossil fuel emissions

7.6

1.5

4.1

2.2 2.8

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux (B

MT C

y-1)

Sink

So

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

management

natural effects (land)

atmospheric CO2

ocean

fossil fuel emissions

7.6

1.5

4.1

2.2 2.8

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux (B

MT C

y-1)

Sink

So

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

management

natural effects (land)

TheResidualterrestrialsink

TheBookkeepingModeldealswith

directanthropogeniceffects(management)

Overview•  Thebookkeepingmodel

–  FullcarbonaccounEng–  Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts

•  Inputs–  Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes

•  Outputs–  Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes

•  Examples–  Global,1850-2015–  Mexico,1850-2015

•  ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs

BookkeepingModel:Mexico

RAHoughtonAANassikas

INPUTS

MODISIGBP

Forest=redCrop=orangePasture=greenOther=blue

Forest Crop Pasture Other

1992 -0.19 0.42 0.01 -0.24

ChangesinAreatoChangesinLand-use

ê êí î

Foresttocrop

Foresttopasture

Foresttoother

Othertocrop

Othertopasture

Croptopasture

1992 0.19 0 0 0.23 0.01 0

Forest Crop Pasture Other

2002 -0.16 0.11 -0.06 0.11

ChangesinAreatoChangesinLand-use

ê êí î

Foresttocrop

Foresttopasture

Foresttoother

Othertocrop

Othertopasture

Croptopasture

2002 0.11 0 0.05 0 -0.06 0

OUTPUTS

Overview•  Thebookkeepingmodel

–  FullcarbonaccounEng–  Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts

•  Inputs–  Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes

•  Outputs–  Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes

•  Examples–  Global,1850-2015–  Mexico,1850-2015

•  ThetransiGontosatellite-basedinputs

Howwillthebookkeepingmodelusedatafromsatellites?

Withsatellitedata…Whichecosystemsaredisturbed(orrecovering)?

What’stheabovegroundbiomass?Howdoesthebiomassdensitychange?Whathappensbelowground?Whathappenstowoodremovedfromtheforest?Whatcausedthechange?[AgribuEon]

Landuse(anthropogenic)?Whichones?Indirecteffectsornaturaldisturbance?Managedland?

Other….