Bonn, 16 October 20031 Climate Risk and Early Warning Integrating all of the factors of disaster risk, across time scales of days to decades Second International.

Bonn, 16 October 2003 1

Climate Risk and Early Warning Integrating all of the factors of disaster risk,

across time scales of days to decades

Second International Conference on Early Warning, Bonn, Germany, 16-18 October, 2003

Reid Basher International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)

and UN Inter-Agency Secretariat for the ISDR

IRI

Bonn, 16 October 2003 2

Risk as the focus

• Risk = the negative outcomes faced by people, enterprises,

governments – this is the target of early warning

• All time scales – rapid events, seasonal changes, and long term trends

• All sources of risk – social, economic, ecological, not just the hazard

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Multiple factors compound the riskWhy have climate-related disasters increased ?

Ineffective early warning

Development pressure

Lack of knowledge

Minimal public services

Inadequate leadership

Population exposedClimatic hazards

Poverty

Environmental degradation

Risk!

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• Understanding based on spirit world or religious teachings

• “Early warning” in hands of spiritual leaders, often linked to omens

• Often strong fatalism, with disasters as punishment or “acts of the divine”

Changing views of climate (1): The pre-science era is still with us

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Changing views of climate (2): The stability and statistics era, 19C onward

• Climate seen as stable and “stationary”• Details revealed by long series of data• Disasters as statistical, probabilistic

events (e.g. the “hundred year” flood) • Powerful basis for risk management

and early warning

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Changing views of climate (3): The global climate system era, post 1970

• Satellites show whole Earth, with swirling, chaotic “climate system”

• Computers allow models of the climate system - atmosphere and oceans interacting

• El Niño system revealed, seasonal forecasts, global monitoring, global early warning

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Changing views of climate (4): Current era of change and uncertainty

• Human, GHG-induced climate change• Natural fluctuations, e.g. 1970s Sahel • Uncertainty and fear about future

changes, disasters a major concern• High stakes, growing human vulnerability

A greater need for early warning and foresight

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Reducing seasonal risks

MOS CORRECTED

OBSERVATION

Kenya, Oct-Nov-Dec season•Seasonal forecasts are getting better•Give outlook on chances of drought or high rainfall

Measured rainfall versus seasonal prediction ECHAM4 model (correlation coefficient = 0.8)

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Early warning of other risk factors

How can we provide early warning and foresight of …

• Declining environmental state?• Risk-raising development projects?• Communications and capacity weaknesses? • Economics, markets (e.g. food supplies & prices)?• Trends in migration, conflict, health vulnerability?

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Early warning - for risk reduction

Element Day-Week-Month-Year-Decade

Weather, tides, floods, soils XXXX XXX

Reservoirs, snow pack XXXXXXXX

People exposed, conflict, migration XXXXXX

Crop production, food prices XXXXXX

Food reserves, food aid XXXXXX

Environmental management XXXXXXXX

Industry, urban, infrastructure design XXXXXXX

Land use planning XXXXXX

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Integrated approach to early warning

• Events – Monitor, analyze, predict storms, floods, drought, etc.

• Impact – Surveillance and interpretation of food supply and prices, reservoir storage, migration, etc

• Vulnerability – Analysis and summary of trends in environmental and socio-economic factors

• Policies – Scenario analysis of disaster impacts of current and proposed policies and projects

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Conclusion

Integrating early warning into policy ….• Requires strong awareness of multiple factors in

disasters, plus ability to bridge organizational gaps• Better addresses the problem of growing disasters

and the issue of global change• Expands the role and toolkit of early warning –

building on existing technical capabilities