Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted Jouko Rautava 1 11.2.2016 Jouko Rautava, Advisor • Expert on Chinese and Russian economies and economic policy.
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Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland UnrestrictedJouko Rautava 111.2.2016
Jouko Rautava, Advisor• Expert on Chinese and Russian economies and economic policy.
Unrestricted
Bank of Finland
The Economic Situation in China
Reforms, structural change and slower growth
Jouko Rautava
211.2.2016 Finpro Helsinki
Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted
Stock market turbulence with Chinese characteristics
Jouko Rautava 311.2.2016
Source: Macrobond
Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted
More flexibility to forex policy
Jouko Rautava 411.2.2016
Juan against dollar NEER and REER
Sources: Reuters, BIS
Aug.11
Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted
Yuan spearheads reform policy
Jouko Rautava 511.2.2016
Share of international payments, % Reforms in 2015
Source: Swift
- Deposit insurance- Liberalization of interest rates- Capital account liberalization measures- Change of exchange rate mechanism- SDR- …
- Two-child policy - SEO reform (though still only plans)- Pricing reforms (e.g. gas)- Military reform- …
Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted
Structural change proceeds: demand
Jouko Rautava 611.2.2016
Sources: CEIC, Macrobond
Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted
Structural change proceeds: supply
Jouko Rautava 711.2.2016
Source: Macrobond
Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted
Electricity consumption, GDP growth and structural change?
Jouko Rautava 811.2.2016
Source: Macrobond
Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted
No reason to understate risksDomestic debt, % of GDP
Jouko Rautava 911.2.2016
Sources: Macrobond, BOFIT
Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted
Slower is better, disturbances part of development
Jouko Rautava 1011.2.2016
Sources: Macrobond, BOFIT
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2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP growth, % yoy BOFIT forecast
Sources: NBSC, BOFIT.24.9.2015bofbulletin.fi
China's GDP growth and BOFIT forecast for 2015–2017
Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank – Bank of Finland Unrestricted
Asia on the rise- share of global output
Jouko Rautava 1111.2.2016
Sources: Maddison, WEO
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