BMF workshop presentation: An overview of the adaptation process and resources that can help you to adapt Paul Buckley and Julian Wright
Mar 30, 2015
BMF workshop presentation:
An overview of the adaptation process and resources that can help you to adapt
Paul Buckley and Julian Wright
Set up in 2005 to transfer science to decision makers
25 organisations, mostly across UK and devolved governments, agencies, science organisations and NGOs
Work with 100+ scientists to produce authoritative reports
Includes ports / shipping; marine recreation and tourism
New adaptation work to bridge gap between climate impacts knowledge and capacity of organisations to respond
Work closely with EA climate ready
Introduction to MCCIP
In October 2011, Environment Agency took over the role of providing advice and support to businesses and public sector organisations in England to help them adapt to a changing climate: Climate Ready
Climate Ready provides:
Core information (generic advice and support)
Theme-specific support for 7 themes
Aim to work with and through others to embed adaptation
Introduction to Climate Ready
The BMF states that the...
Climate change will affect the quality of the natural environment and BMF would like to ensure that its members are fully aware of the issues.
Whilst climate change is unlikely to be your main business driver, when combined with other economic and social drivers it could be an increasingly important issue.
We want to help you take a balanced, pragmatic view of climate change impacts, exposing issues you may not have considered and alleviating concerns in others.
Focus here on adapting to climate change impacts, rather than reducing emissions
Why does climate change matter?
“...future of the recreational boating industry really does rely on the quality of the natural environment to retain and encourage people to take part in all water based recreational activities”
A few reasons why people in the industry care
Climate change and its implications for business
Adapting to a changing climate workshop
Next steps
Our role...is to help you consider climate change risks and opportunities, both to expose issues and alleviate concerns in other areas.
Ultimately up to you as managers to take ownership of issues as you see fit
Workshop outline
Climate change and its implications for business
Adapting to a changing climate workshop
Next steps
Year
Global temperatures are rising…
Changes are set to continue…
Hot 2003 European summer: human activities have doubled the risk
observationsMedium-High emissions (modelled)
European summer temperatures
Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre
This type of summer could be normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s
East Midlands 90% probability levelMedium emissions
Change in temperature of the hottest day
Summer Winter
Change in average summer and winter rainfallMedium emissions by 2050s
14
Increased winter flooding
Risks to urban drainage
Severe transport link disruption
Risks to Infrastructure
North West central estimate
Medium Emissions
But the wettest day of the year could see up to 31% more rainfall in the North
Intense winter rainfall
© UKCIP 2011
Seasonal increase in degrees C from present to 2080s – Medium emission
Less directly relevant than warmer air temperatures
BUT
Could improve conditions for non-native nuisance species such as sea squirts spoiling built structures
Change in average sea surface temperature
Sea level rise
16
Increased coastal erosion
Increased coastal flooding
Risk to infrastructure
Changes are relative to 1961-90
But, also modelled more extreme scenarios that give rises of up to 6ft (1.9 metres) by the end of the century (High++ scenario) (London)
Sea level rise
Hotter, drier summers
Increase in heatwaves / hot days
Warmer, wetter winters
More heavy rain events
Other marine / coastal variablesSea level rise 10s of cm in coming decades
Largest sea temperature increase in autumn in SE
Storms more uncertain but could be fewer more severe storms
Summary of expected climate changes in the UK
Increased/decreased productivity
Changing markets/demand for service
Effects on reputation
Disruption/loss of business continuity
Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs
Health and safety concerns
Increased / decreased sales
31% of UK companies significantly affected by weather in the past year (Ipsos MORI, 2010)
What are the potential impacts for business in general...
How is weather already affecting this industry
Recent windstorms / surge events in the UK and Europe have...
• Damaged / destroyed equipment (cables, access bridges, pontoons)
• Led to increased insurance claims at some sites (and premiums...)
• Piled yachts up against each other
• Cut off access to boats
• Breached sea defences leading to damage through inundation
• Damaged reputation through reduced customer confidence
Future climate change impacts on the industry
Increased participation in marine leisure activities
Added pressure to infrastructure from more use
Increased risk of collisions / congestion
Non-natives fouling structures / boats
Droughts = water restrictions / more hosepipe bans
Changes in sediment supply
Warmer, drier summers
Dredging / fill required for sites and navigation
ImpactsVulnerability of site and access due to flooding
Risk of overtopping quays / defences with surges
Closures from high tides / heavy rain
Damage / disruption = higher insurance premiums
Wave height increase affecting safety
Damage to boats stored out of season with winter
storms
Events
Storms / Heavy rain
Sea Level Rise
Future climate change impacts on the industry
Hotter, drier summers
Milder, wetter winters
Greater proportion of rain
in heavy downpours
Rising sea level
Trends
Physical im
pacts (flooding)
Consequences for society (travel disruption)
Events
Heat waves
Droughts
Heavy rain
Cold snaps
Storms
Negative consequences for businesses
DisruptionInsurance CostsH&SReputation
Positive opportunities
ReputationMarket leaderNew products and services
Adaptation can alter the chain of events
Working with UKCIP, Felixstowe Port pre-empted legal obligations and undertook a climate risk assessment in 2008, which identified capacity building actions. This resulted in:
The incorporation of climate risk into flood management and business continuity plans
Further examination of the current high wind thresholds and wind agreement (key threat)
Maintaining a watching brief on the latest information on climate change of relevance to the port
Brighton Marina commissioned HR Wallingford to model impacts of waves and water level on their sea defences.
This identified future options to reduce the threats to theirbreakwaters over the next 120 years.
Examples of adaptation in ports and marinas
Climate change and its implications for business
Adapting to a changing climate workshop
Next steps
Based on UKCIP adaptation wizard
The adaptation process
Working session 1 (20 mins)Why are you concerned about adapting to climate change? (motivation; drivers; incentives)
What do you want to achieve by working through this process?
What is the scope and scale of your assessment?
What are your timescales of interest?
Who needs to be involved?
What difficulties might you face and how might these be overcome?
Discuss collectively and capture outputs
Outcomes: An idea of what you want to achieve and what resources will be required.
Step 1: Scope, objectives, outcomes
Weather type Impact Business consequences
Trigger point? Response
Adequate? Source
Consider one weather type per row such as heavy rain, heatwave, storm cold snapHigh windsHigh tide
e.g. flooding of local area or premises, damage to property, restricted access to site, disruption to supply chain, etc.
This is the most important column as it identifies the consequences you are trying to avoid/promote
e.g. repair/ replace/ maintenance/ insurance costs, lost/ gained customers, lost/ gained sales, H&S issues, affect on reputation or declining/ increasing productivity
ie. the point above which an impact occurs
e.g. a windspeed, rainfall intensity or temperature or the duration of a disruption
e.g. staff worked extra hours, people worked from home, alternative premises used. Afterwards: advice sought, suppliers changed, BCM initiated or improved, procedures reviewed, vulnerable equipment moved, building made more resilient, investment in flood resistent technologies
e.g. company records, a colleague
Source: SpeedBACLIAT
How have your sites been affected by past weather events?
Outcomes: A record of past weather events and their consequences and details of critical thresholds.
Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability
Weather Type Impact Business consequences
Trigger point? Response
Adequate? Source
Winter rainstorms
Heatwave
Storms / high winds/High tide
Cold snaps?
Damage boatsin storage
Increased participation
Overtopping
Repair costs / insurance claims
Increased revenue
Site flooding / boats damaged
Rainfall intensity/ high winds
Length of hot spell
Storm / high tide combined
Move where boats stored
Took on more temporary staff
Reviewed insurance cover
In short term
Yes
In short term
A colleague
Records
Records
Source: SpeedBACLIAT
How have your sites been affected by recent weather events?
Outcomes: A record of past weather events and their consequences and details of critical thresholds.
Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability
Working session 2 (30 mins)
Complete flip charts in groups
Share a few examples of consequences of specific events
Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability
Use BACLIAT (Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool) to brainstorm potential impacts on:
Premises: Impacts on building design, construction and maintenance and
facilities management
People: Implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles
Process: Impacts on production process and service delivery
Logistics: Vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport arrangements
Markets: Changing demand for goods and services
Finance: Implications for investment, insurance and reputation
Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change
Use BACLIAT (Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool) to brainstorm potential impacts on:
Premises: Will buildings need to be adapted to avoid future flood risks?
People: Will seasonal employment and customer use of facilities change?
Process: How will service delivery need to change in the future?
Logistics: Are there considerations for how boats are moored in [and stored out
of] season?
Markets: Could we see an increase in demand with better summers?
Finance: Will insurance premiums go up in the future due to climate risks?
Outcomes: A list of priority climate change impacts.
Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change
Working session 3 (40 mins)Break into groups
Brainstorm potential impacts for the business areas most relevant to your organisation
(past things more frequent / new issues)
Consider THREATS and OPPORTUNITIES
No answers are wrong: think creatively and record all answers.
Think practically and think about longevity of sites
Consider direct and indirect impacts (e.g. not directly at site – transport links / supply)
Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change
Climate change and its implications for business
Adapting to a changing climate workshop
Next steps
15 minsConduct an exercise to identify key impacts
Is there consensus?
Key considerations to prioritise:How soon
How likely
Consequences / cost
How long will it take to start adapting
WHY is this risk significant?
From potential future impacts to risks
30 minsWhat actions could you take to enhance the resilience of your site? Temporary or permanent?
Think about past experiences to draw on and be practical, think about how your business works
Explore technical, operational, strategic options
Would changes benefit business anyway?
Outcomes: An adaptation plan for your top 3 issues
Identifying adaptation actions
How can the preferred adaptations best be implemented;
What resources (staff, facilities, capital) will be required to implement the adaptations and monitor their effectiveness;
Who will “own” management of these risks
What institutional and community support will be required;
What barriers exist to adaptation and how might these be overcome;
How will the performance of the strategy, and actions within it, be monitored and reviewed.
Implementing adaptations: things to consider