Page 1
1 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY
FINANCE SUMMIT
NEW YORK
23 APRIL 2013
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Twitter: @miebreich
Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive
Page 2
2 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
AGENDA
3. New Energy ROI
2. Four energy realities
1. Clean energy investment update
Page 3
3 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
$269bn
GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY,
2004-2012 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for re-
invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions
$54bn$80bn
$114bn
$165bn$191bn $187bn
$251bn
$302bn
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
+48%+42%
+45%
+16% -2%
+34%
+20%-11%
Page 4
4 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
GLOBAL RENEWABLE CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: “Other renewables” includes marine and geothermal power only.
20
40
60
80
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Otherrenewables
Biomass &Waste
Wind
Solar
Page 5
5 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY
INVESTMENT, 2006–12 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Clean energy total excludes large hydro. Fossil fuel is investment on coal and gas
capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal and 4%/yr for gas.
Clean energy
Fossil fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Page 6
6 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
EQUIPMENT SUPPLY AND DEMAND, 2006-2015 (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Supply scenarios based on continued 2012 utilisation rates.
SOLAR WIND
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Demand
Conservative
Optimistic
Manufacturingcapacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Manufacturingcapacity
Demand
Page 7
7 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2003 – 2013 YTD
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Values as of 10 April 2013; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
S&P 500
NASDAQ
NEX
Page 8
8 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION, 2004-
2012 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D
7.1
14.2
28.9
40.8 39.0
27.1
41.8
63.1
40.3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
North America & Caribbean
0.83.5
5.4
11.114.5
10.312.9
9.9 10.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Central & South America
18.0
28.5
36.5
58.4
70.7 73.2
97.8
108.0
75.8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Europe
0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.7 1.64.9 4.2
11.8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Middle East & Africa
9.515.2
22.4
30.6
39.947.3
66.8
87.1
100.7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asia & Oceania
Page 9
9 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
Pictures: Bloomberg
I’m going to renew the wind
Production Tax Credit!
Solyndra! Solyndra!
Solyndra!
US 2012 – THE CLEAN ENERGY ELECTION
Page 10
10 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US ANNUAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT AND CAPACITY
ADDITIONS, 2004-2012
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TOTAL INVESTMENT, $BN CAPACITY, GW
10.6
17.1
32.1
43.3 42.9
32.4
42.5
65.2
44.2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-32%
0.62.0
3.1
5.7
9.6
11.3
5.6
8.7
17.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Otherrenewables
Biomass &waste
Solar
Wind
+100%
Page 11
11 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
0
5
10
15
20
Oct-2005 Oct-2006 Oct-2007 Oct-2008 Oct-2009 Oct-2010 Oct-2011 Oct-2012
Henry Hub
HENRY HUB GAS PRICE
($/MMBTU)
Source: Bloomberg Terminal
Summit 2012
$2.21/MMBtu
Summit 2013
$4.26/MMBtu
(+130%)
Page 12
12 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
EUROPEAN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP SPREADS, 2009-12
Source: Bloomberg Terminal
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
Portugal
Italy
Spain
France
Netherlands
Germany
UK
Sweden
Finland
Norway
Page 13
13 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
EUROPE - POLICY UNCERTAINTY
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Retroactive changes
Unplanned reduction
Page 14
14 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
TOP 15 COUNTRIES FOR NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN
ENERGY IN 2012 AND % CHANGE ON 2011 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D
2.95
3.42
4.05
4.31
4.41
5.34
5.46
6.19
6.85
8.34
14.71
16.28
22.80
35.58
65.13
-68%
179%
11%
-34%
-23%
-32%
20563%
40%
-45%
-17%
-51%
75%
-27%
-37%
20%
Spain
Greece
Belgium
France
Canada
Brazil
South Africa
Australia
India
United Kingdom
Italy
Japan
Germany
United States
China 65.13
Page 15
15 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
SUPPLY CHAIN CONSOLIDATION
Page 16
16 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
NEW ENERGY REALITIES
Unconventional oil and gas
Unpredictability
Improving energy intensity
Cheap clean energy
1.
2.
3.
4.
Page 17
17 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13
Rest of US
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Haynesville
Woodford
Fayetteville
Barnett
US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION (BCF PER DAY)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, US EIA, UK DECC, China Customs, BP Statistical Review
Qatar
China
UK
Page 18
18 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20 TRILLION CUBIC FEET
Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013;
Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 2013 figures show Early Release
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2010Historical
Page 19
19 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20 TRILLION CUBIC FEET
Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013;
Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 2013 figures show Early Release
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2010
2011
Historical
Page 20
20 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20 TRILLION CUBIC FEET
Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013;
Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 2013 figures show Early Release
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2010
2011
2012
Historical
Page 21
21 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20 TRILLION CUBIC FEET
Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013;
Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 2013 figures show Early Release
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2010
2011
2012
2013
Historical
Page 22
22 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS
Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources,
April 2011 Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown
Canada
Brazil
Poland Norway
China
Australia
South Africa 200 trillion
cubic feet
USA Mexico
Libya Algeria
Argentina
Page 23
23 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
The extraordinary
windfall, which is
completely God-given,
that this country has
got is shale gas.
UK SHALE GAS
Owen Paterson
UK Environment Secretary Picture: Getty Images
Page 24
24 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
180
200
220
240
260
280
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
GDP
Historical
Oct 2010
TWh AUD trillion
Page 25
25 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
180
200
220
240
260
280
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
GDP
Historical
Oct 2010
TWh AUD trillion
Page 26
26 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
180
200
220
240
260
280
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
GDP
Historical
Oct 2010
Sept 2011
TWh AUD trillion
Page 27
27 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
180
200
220
240
260
280
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
GDP
Historical
Oct 2010
Sept 2011
TWh AUD trillion
Page 28
28 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
180
200
220
240
260
280
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005–2022
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
Historical
Oct 2010
Sept 2011
Jun 2012
Page 29
29 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035
Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TWh TWh USD trn Feb 2005
GDP
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical
Page 30
30 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035
TWh
Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TWh USD trn Feb 2005 Feb 2007
GDP
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical
Page 31
31 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035
TWh
Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TWh USD trn Feb 2005 Feb 2007
GDP
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical
Page 32
32 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035
TWh
Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TWh USD trn
Dec 2009
Feb 2005 Feb 2007
GDP
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical
Page 33
33 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035
TWh
Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TWh USD trn
Dec 2009 Apr 2011
Feb 2005 Feb 2007
GDP
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical
Page 34
34 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
US NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS
FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 1990–2035
TWh
Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TWh USD trn
Dec 2009 Apr 2011 Dec 2012
Feb 2005 Feb 2007
GDP
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical
Page 35
35 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
US CAR USE AND FUEL EFFICIENCY
Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration; University
of Michigan Transportation Research Institute; Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Total vehicle miles grew at 2.7% CAGR between 1971 and 2007
Total vehicle miles travelled
(tm/year)
Fuel efficiency of new cars
(mpg, sales weighted average)
20
21
22
23
24
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
+3.7%
CAGR since
2007
- 0.5%
CAGR since
2007
Page 36
36 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
NET OIL AND GAS IMPORT DEPENDENCY, 2010 - 2035 (% of consumption)
Source: IEA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil
Gas
United
States
China India
European Union
Japan
2010 2035
-20%
Page 37
37 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
1976
2000
2006
2012
2012
1985
Cumulative capacity, MW
Crystalline silicon
Thin-film
PV EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976-2012
2012 ($/W)
Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.
PV MODULE PRICES HAVE
FALLEN 80% SINCE 2008
20% IN 2012
Page 38
38 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
14%
Global
Denmark and Germany
1984 1990 2000 2004 201110
50
100
500
1000
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Cumulative capacity, MW
AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND, 1984-
2012 (€/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool Note: Learning curve (blue line) is least square regression: R2 = 0.88 and 14% learning rate.
WIND TURBINE PRICES
HAVE FALLEN 29% SINCE
2008
Page 39
39 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
20152020
2030
H1 2012 - $689/kWhH2 2012 - $638/kWh1995
20002005
10
100
1,000
10,000
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Battery cost ($/kWh)
Cumulative production capacity (MWh)
EV Li-ion batterycost forecast(BNEF)
Consumer Li-ionbatteryexperience curve
EV Li-ion batteryprices, historical
Consumer Li-ionbattery prices,historical
LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE
Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Cost-competitiveness (on total ownership basis)
EV BATTERY PRICES
HAVE FALLEN 37% SINCE
H1 2011
Page 40
40 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ASSET FINANCE (GREMO – NEW NORMAL)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Marine
Solar thermal
Small-scale PV
Solar PV
Offshore wind
Wind
EfW
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
Note:
1. All $bn figures are nominal assuming a 2% annual rate of inflation
2. EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV.
$bn (nominal) Clean energy asset
investment will be $630bn in
2030 – 73% of total
Page 41
41 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Renewable Energy(excl. hydro)
Hydro
Nuclear
Traditional biomass
Fossil
IEA WEO 2012
TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TWh Mtoe
Page 42
42 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
If we look at things like
renewable wind, solar, biofuels,
we have those sources over
the next 30 years growing 700
to 800 percent. But in the year
2040, they’ll supply just 1
percent.” Rex Tillerson
CEO, ExxonMobil
March 2013
PREDICTION
Page 43
43 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
The world of energy
is facing a period of
unprecedented
uncertainty
Fatih Birol
Chief Economist, IEA
UNCERTAINTY
Picture: Mikhail Evstafiev, Wikimedia
Page 44
44 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
NEW ENERGY ROI
RESILIENCE OPTIONALITY
INTELLIGENCE
Page 45
45 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
NEW ENERGY ROI – RESILIENCE
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Ask:
“What is the worst that can happen?”
Don’t ask:
“What is the expected outcome?”
Page 46
46 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
“TRADITIONAL” THREATS
ACCIDENTS NATURAL DISASTERS
GEOPOLITICS SECURITY
Page 47
47 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
NEW THREATS – CYBERSECURITY
Page 48
48 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
CHINA THERMAL POWER GENERATION VERSUS WATER
SCARCITY BY PROVINCE, 2010
Water deficit
Severe scarcity
Moderate scarcity
No scarcity
Freshwater scarcity rating:
100TWh
Page 49
49 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
CHINA THERMAL POWER GENERATION VERSUS WATER
SCARCITY BY PROVINCE, 2030
Water deficit
Severe scarcity
Moderate scarcity
No scarcity
Freshwater scarcity rating:
100TWh
Page 50
50 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS
Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources,
April 2011 Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown
Canada
Brazil
Poland Norway
China
Australia
South Africa 200 trillion
cubic feet
USA
Mexico
Libya Algeria
Argentina
Page 51
51 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS – WATER STRESS
Source: Shale gas resources: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources,
April 2011; Water Stress: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Canada
Brazil
Poland
China
Australia
South Africa 200 trillion
cubic feet
Libya Algeria
Argentina
USA
Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown
Norway
Mexico
Page 52
52 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY – FRACKING, TAR SANDS
Source: Wikimedia commons
Page 53
53 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
STUDENT FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT MOVEMENT
Picture: gofossilfree.org, US Navy
Page 54
54 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
CLIMATE CHANGE
Image: Bloomberg Businessweek
Page 55
55 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
NEW ENERGY ROI – OPTIONALITY
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
…options have extraordinary value
In times of volatility…
Page 56
56 MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich / / / /
• Capital light
• Low leverage
• Structured finance
• Conditional commitments
• Hedging
• Guarantees
• Option pricing
OPTIONALITY – SO WHERE ARE THESE OPTIONS?
• Energy efficiency
• Power storage
• Demand management
• Interconnection
• Fuel flexibility
• Mini-grids
• CCS readiness
• Natural hedges
• Dual sourcing
• Market diversification
• Sector diversification
• Value chain diversification
• R&D
• Coalitions
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS OPERATIONAL OPTIONS FINANCIAL OPTIONS
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$48 billion $1.5 billion
OPTIONALITY – INVESTOR EXAMPLE
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NEW ENERGY ROI - INTELLIGENCE
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Are you surfing or drowning?
A tsunami of information –
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INTELLIGENCE
•Smart grid
•Internet of things
•Pervasive sensors
•Automated optimisation
•Big data
•Consumer behaviour
•Market intelligence
•Talent management
MACHINE INTELLIGENCE HUMAN INTELLIGENCE
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• Efficiency
• Network
• Responsiveness
• Demand management
• Coalitions
• Data sharing
• R&D budget
Photos: Wikimedia Commons
• Scale
• Centralisation
• Baseload-plus-peak
• Dispatch management
• Vertical integration
• Confidentiality
• Defence budget
DINOSAUR HEURISTICS MAMMAL HEURISTICS
NEW ENERGY ROI
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THANK YOU!
RESILIENCE OPTIONALITY
INTELLIGENCE