November 2015 Market Commentary 02 Commodity Performance BCOM 06 Roll Select 07 Historical 08 Contribution to Return & Weights 09 Commodity Volatility Realized 10 Implied 11 Historical Realized 12 Commodity Correlation Composites 13 Singles 14 US CPI Indices 15 Country CPI 16 Country GDP 17 Commitment of Traders Report Monthly Notional Change & Correlation 18 Historical Net Positions 19 Commodity Inventories & Sales Monthly Change & Correlation 21 Historical Levels 22 Commodity ETP Flows 24 Term Structures 25 BI Dashboards 27 Bloomberg Cheat Sheet 28 Contact us: <Help> <Help> on the Bloomberg Professional service 1-212-617-5020 [email protected]TABLES & CHARTS (BCOM) BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX
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BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX (BCOM) TABLES & CHARTS€¦ · The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), the raw- ... will result in non-OPEC crude supply leveling off at about 55 million barrels
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November 2015Market Commentary 02Commodity Performance BCOM 06 Roll Select 07 Historical 08Contribution to Return & Weights 09Commodity Volatility Realized 10 Implied 11 Historical Realized 12Commodity Correlation Composites 13 Singles 14 US CPI Indices 15 Country CPI 16 Country GDP 17Commitment of Traders Report Monthly Notional Change & Correlation 18 Historical Net Positions 19Commodity Inventories & Sales Monthly Change & Correlation 21 Historical Levels 22Commodity ETP Flows 24Term Structures 25BI Dashboards 27Bloomberg Cheat Sheet 28
Contact us:<Help> <Help> on the Bloomberg Professional [email protected]
TABLES & CHARTS(BCOM)BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX
Commodities dropped 7.3% in November, down 22.3% YTD
Investors are suffering through the worst commodity collapse in a generation. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), the raw-material gauge, is poised for a fifth straight annual loss, the longest slide since the data began in 1991. Bulls can blame the cooling economy in China, the world’s largest consumer of metals, grains and energy. The nation’s slowest pace of growth in two decades is stamping out demand and leaving the world oversupplied with everything from aluminum to wheat. China’s factory gauges signaled that manufacturing hasn’t yet bottomed out amid faltering global demand and deepening deflationary pressures. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, industrial production unexpectedly dropped in September. The prospect that U.S. borrowing costs will rise for the first time in nine years is compounding concern that raw-material users will slow or abandon plans for expansion, eroding consumption.
ENERGY (31.4% weight in BCOM)
WTI oil averaged less than $50 a barrel for a fourth month, the longest stretch since the global financial crisis, as a record supply glut showed no signs of ending as producers fight for market share. Surging U.S. crude stockpiles that have filled storage tanks near capacity are widening the discount on immediate oil deliveries. WTI Cushing spot closed at a $1.70 discount to January WTI on NYMEX, the highest level of contango since 2010. "We don’t get this kind of super contango unless there are concerns about how much spare storage capacity is available," Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective said. "Storage offshore becomes a viable option with these kind of spreads," Evans said. "It costs about 45 to 50 cents a barrel per month to store crude on land. It rises to the $1-to-$1.25 per barrel a month range, depending on the specific vessel, when stored on a tanker."
The OPEC basket price recently fell below Brent front month and WTI front month contracts and for the first time since 2009 traded under $40 a barrel, increasing the financial strain on the group that adopted a policy of maintaining production to defend its market share and pressure higher-cost producers. The pain of low oil prices isn't spread evenly. Only Kuwait's fiscal breakeven - the price of oil required to balance government revenue with spending - is currently below the average price of Brent this year. Libya is facing the most pressure, with a fiscal breakeven of $215 a barrel, according to the IMF. Even Saudi Arabia is in the red: Its breakeven is more than double the current crude price. Saudi Arabia's pain is mitigated by a hoard of foreign assets, currently valued at $646 billion, which it has been drawing down over the past eight months to make up for a shortfall in government revenue. While these assets provide a cushion in the short term, the IMF has said that the kingdom may run out of financial assets needed to support spending within five years if the government maintains current policies.
OPEC is considering raising its official production target at its next meeting on Dec. 4 to take into account new member Indonesia, according to two OPEC delegates. The Southeast Asian nation’s re-entry comes after a break of almost seven years as Indonesia suspended its membership in 2009 after becoming a net oil importer. It pumped 852,000 barrels a day in 2014 and consumed almost twice as much, according to BP Plc. Indonesia's move to rejoin OPEC complicates its status as an organization for oil exporters. The nation will be the group's only East Asian member and its only net importer of petroleum liquids. It aims to be a link between oil producers and consumers and seeks greater access to crude supplies. Indonesia is located along the Strait of Malacca, through which 27% of global maritime oil trade passes. It is a strategic route that serves much of East Asia with crude from the Middle East.
Oil demand will soon reflect the “attractiveness” of the current level of crude prices, and Asia will be a vital engine of economic expansion for decades, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said. OPEC’s chief joined him in seeing Asia as the main hub for growth. Oil demand in Asia will rise by about 16 million barrels a day to almost 46 million by 2040, Abdalla Salem El-Badri, secretary-general of OPEC, said. He said that the region will need to import 40 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products by then.
The global oil and gas industry will need to keep spending $630 billion on exploration and production each year just to maintain output at current levels as aging fields decline, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Investment will be cut by 20% this year and will drop further in 2016, the first two-year decline in spending since the 1980s, IEA said. Reductions to industry spending will result in non-OPEC crude supply leveling off at about 55 million barrels a day before 2020. That’s 1.3 million higher than this
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year, less than a third of the total growth of 5 million from 2010 to 2015. U.S. drillers have cut the number of rigs in use by an unprecedented 63% in the past year and daily production has fallen by 450,000 barrels from its June peak. While the nation’s shale output “stumbles” in the short term, it will resume its “upward march” once prices recover to $80 to plateau at 5 million barrels a day early next decade, the agency said. Output will gradually decline in the early 2020s as costs increase and operators exhaust the most prolific areas.
Surplus oil inventories are at the highest level in at least a decade because of increased global production, according to OPEC. Stockpiles in developed economies are 210 million barrels higher than their five-year average, exceeding the glut that accumulated in early 2009 after the financial crisis. Slowing non-OPEC supply and rising demand for winter fuels could “help alleviate the current overhang,” enabling a recovery in prices, it said. The 2009 glut was the only other occasion in the past 10 years when the oversupply has topped 150 million barrels.
The U.S. and Iraq, whose extra crude this year equates to about 80% of the global surplus, will fail to boost output in 2016, according to the world’s biggest forecasters. While the U.S. curtailment is mainly because prices are too low to spur fresh supply, the Middle East country’s ability to boost output is also being crimped by a need to fund its battle with Islamic State. As production from the U.S. is slowing, Russian output continues to expand as Russian oil fields delivered 10.78 million barrels a day in October, according to data from the nation's Oil Ministry, breaking the country's post-Soviet era production record for the fourth time this year. Russian production costs have been kept low as the ruble has lost its U.S. dollar value along with global crude.
Crude imports to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, which have fallen by more than half since September 2005 when the region’s imports peaked, sank to a 24-year low on the back of plant maintenance and ample domestic inventories. Imports to PADD 3, home to about half of U.S. crude processing, were 2.54 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 30, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. That was the lowest single-week total since Nov. 29, 1991. The 52-week average of 3.08 million barrels was the lowest in the data series begun in 1990.
Gasoline at the pump hasn’t been so expensive against its raw material, crude oil, since at least 2004. Regular gasoline in the U.S. has averaged $1.13 a gallon more than Brent crude so far in 2015, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on AAA prices and Brent futures. That’s almost 20 cents a gallon higher than the average in the past 10 years. Gasoline demand in the U.S. averaged 9.24 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended Nov. 13, the highest seasonal level since 2007, according to the EIA.
Faced with the collapse in oil prices, the two dominant North Sea producers are taking opposite approaches to bolster dwindling investment: The U.K. is offering carrots, while Norway is wielding a stick. Britain plans to extend the 1.3 billion pounds of tax cuts granted to producers in March after more than one in three fields was rendered uneconomic by the slump in crude. In contrast, Norway has shunned incentives and warned companies that scrapping projects could hurt their chances of getting new Arctic licenses. The differing strategies highlight the divide between depleted British waters and the untapped potential and larger reserves on the Norwegian side of the North Sea.
Energy experts say that, despite the huge stockpiles, the oil market could easily be shaken by a crisis in the Middle East, like a major terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia or a collapse in Iraq, and prices could soar again. "There is no spare capacity in the world. The market isn't pricing in any risk, geopolitical risk, for oil," said Steven Wood of Moody's Corporate Finance Group. "Geopolitical worries and terrorism have had a growing impact on the market the last few weeks. The stakes just went up and the geopolitical risk premium has reinflated," according to John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC hedge fund.
Waiting for U.S. natural gas prices to bottom? It may be a while. Analysts including those at Barclays Plc and energy broker Tradition Energy say competition from coal may set a floor for natural gas that’s as low as $1.50 per million British thermal units. A warm winter would keep the U.S. awash in shale gas into next year, forcing the power-plant fuel to compete against the nation’s cheapest coal. While U.S. natural gas drillers facing the lowest seasonal prices in two decades are trying to cut back supplies, the rigs are freeing record volumes of gas from new wells in six out of the seven largest U.S. shale deposits, EIA data show. That’ll keep supplies expanding to all-time highs this year and next even as drillers sideline rigs. While total gas production from the top seven shale plays is forecast to drop in December, a rig drilling new wells in the Marcellus will yield a record 8.741 million cubic feet a day, keeping production declines modest, according to an EIA report.
GRAINS (23.7% weight in BCOM)
Argentina, the world’s third-largest soybean producer and fourth-largest exporter of corn, will reduce its tariff on soybean exports by 5% to 30% and then will continue to cut the tariff by 5% a year until its elimination in seven years, Clarin reported, citing designated Agriculture Minister Ricardo Buryaile. The new government will also fulfill electoral pledges to remove tariffs on wheat, corn, beef and sunflowers from Dec. 10, Buryaile said. Argentine farmers have protested the taxes for several years, in part by holding back crops and storing them in silo bags that can be seen dotted along rural roads, as they waited for a new government and
3
a change in policy. The country has shipped $17 billion of grains and oilseeds aboard so far this year, the lowest for the period since 2009, according to exporters’ consortium data.
The Bloomberg Grains Index touched an all-time low in November and is heading for a third straight annual loss, the longest slide since 2001. Global inventories of corn, wheat and soybeans will each rise to all-time highs before next year’s North American harvests, the U.S. government forecasts. While grain prices have already dropped to five-year lows, hedge funds are predicting more losses as stockpiles expand. The funds are holding the biggest bearish bet on the crops since June. Supplies are rising after record prices in 2008 spurred farmers worldwide to increase plantings, while favorable weather in the past few seasons helped spur bigger yields. Even with a slowdown in acreage growth in recent years, gains for global consumption are also easing. A stronger dollar is also cutting the appeal of exports from the U.S., the world’s largest seller. World inventories of soybeans are expected to climb for a fourth year to a record 82.9 million metric tons, as crops rise to the biggest ever in the U.S. and Brazil, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said. Global stockpiles of corn are seen reaching an all-time high after the USDA cut its outlook for Chinese consumption, and wheat supplies are also estimated to rise to a peak. The combined stocks-to-use ratio of all three crops is forecast at the highest in 14 years, signaling that supply is outstripping demand.
The record corn crop China was counting on to sustain its huge pork habit is coming up short. Production that was supposed to reach an all-time high this season instead will drop 5.8%, the most in 15 years, after a summer drought and late-season rains stunted plants and delayed harvests, according to SGS SA, a researcher hired by Bloomberg to survey farmers in the main growing regions during September and October. While China has expanded inventories in recent years, it grows and consumes more corn than any nation except the U.S., and two thirds of its domestic output is used to feed hogs because the country consumes more than half the world’s pork. Output had been expected to reach another record, mostly because Chinese farmers expanded planting this year. In the seven major growing areas, which accounted for 69% of the country’s output last year, only one province reduced acreage, according to SGS. However, for the second straight year, drought stunted plant growth and damaged stalks and corn kernels, especially in the northeastern areas near North Korea and in Inner Mongolia to the west. At the end of July, rainfall in Liaoning, the fourth-largest growing province, was 10% of normal and the lowest since 1951, according to SGS. The dry spell compounded stress on crops after some farmers delayed planting because of a spring freeze, the researcher said. Some also postponed the harvest because of late-season rains. SGS is forecasting the biggest crop decline since 2000, when a drought sent production plunging 17%, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which estimated last year’s harvest at 215.65 million tons. A smaller harvest may not make much of a dent in domestic supplies or global markets however. Over the past decade, the Chinese government acquired surplus grain at above-market prices to protect income for farmers, most of which have less than a few acres of land. That’s left the biggest inventories since 2001. The USDA last month estimated stockpiles in China will jump to 90.6 million metric tons before the 2016 harvest, up 11% from 2015 and the fifth straight annual gain.
INDUSTRIAL METALS (14.7% weight in BCOM)
The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index is down 29.3% this year to the lowest since February 2009 amid concern that demand is sputtering in China. Economic growth is forecast at the slowest in 25 years in China, undermining demand and exacerbating gluts. Copper dropped to the cheapest since 2009 after declining factory orders in Germany and a worsening outlook for Europe’s economy added to demand concerns. Aluminum fell to a six-year low on the LME. Nickel dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade amid slowing stainless-steel production in China. Zinc dropped to the lowest since July 2009. Supply cutbacks have been insufficient and demand has either been too weak to offset the adjustment or seen outright declines, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
Amid a slump that saw the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) at the lowest since 1999, China is stepping up to support metals with measures including state purchases, output cuts and a probe into short-selling. The country’s largest copper and nickel suppliers met to weigh their response to the rout, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The smelters, including China’s biggest, Jiangxi Copper Co. and Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., decided to reduce output after meeting in Shanghai, the people said. The size of any cut hasn’t been determined, the people said. Zinc suppliers also pledged to reduce output to boost prices, announcing cuts of 500,000 tons. Authorities are said to be considering state purchases to support the metals as well as possibly intervening to limit futures short selling.
Hedge funds are betting there’s more pain in store for copper, even with prices trading at the lowest in six years. Money managers are holding the biggest net-short position in the metal since August. Futures are trading near the lowest since 2009 as economic growth slows to the weakest pace in more than two decades in China. Declining industrial profits in the Asian country added to concern that the government still hasn’t done enough to spur a rebound. Mining companies had boosted production after booming growth in China over the last decade sent prices to a record in 2011. With the economy slowing, there is too much supply and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts the metal will remain in surplus through at least 2020.
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PRECIOUS METALS (16.9% weight in BCOM)
Gold is heading for a third straight annual decline, the longest slump since 1998. Prices fell to the lowest in five years as speculation that U.S. policy makers will raise interest rates next month helped boost the dollar, curbing the metal’s appeal as an alternative asset. The greenback climbed to near the highest since at least 2004. Odds that the Federal Reserve will increase rates for the first time since 2006 advanced to 72% at the end of November, from 35% a month ago, Fed-fund futures data show. Bets on higher rates have risen as a resilient U.S. labor market powers consumer spending, adding to signs that the economy may be robust enough to withstand higher rates. Speculators boosted their net-short positions to 14,655 contracts in gold futures and options in the week ended Nov. 24, the most since the U.S. government data begins in 2006. They’re not the only bears. Investors in exchange-traded products backed by the metal cut their holdings for an eighth session through Monday, to the smallest since 2009. Almost $10 billion has been wiped from the value of gold ETPs this year.
Half of the gold coming from mines may not be viable at current prices, underscoring the industry’s need for consolidation and output cuts, according to the best-performing producer of the metal in the past decade. The lower prices may start to attract jewelry and coin buyers, especially in Asia. In China, gold demand may match or exceed the record in 2013 as consumers seek protection against financial-market turmoil and the yuan devaluation, according to the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society. In India, imports tripled to 152.9 tons in August, the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics said.
SOFTS (8.5% weight in BCOM)
The first global deficit of sugar in six years will probably get even bigger next season. World supplies will fall short of demand by 6.44 million metric tons in the season that starts Oct. 1, 2016, Platts’ Kingsman unit said. Production is expected to decline in India and the U.S. while consumption rises around the world. Raw sugar futures touched a 10-month high and have rallied more than 50% since setting a seven-year low in August. The market is expected to shift into a shortage in the season that began in October as El Nino threatens output in Asia and South America. Kingsman raised its estimate for the 2015-16 shortfall by about 10% to 3.31 million tons. Output in Brazil’s center-south, the main growing region in the world’s biggest producer, is set to climb to 32.94 million tons in the 12 months starting in April, from 31.08 million tons expected this year, Kingsman said. The percentage of cane used to make sugar rather than ethanol will probably increase to 43% next year from 41%. More sugar from Brazil won’t be enough to make up for a forecast decline in supply from India, the world’s second-largest producer. Output there will drop 8.6% to 25.1 million tons in 2016-17, according to the report.
Colombia, the world’s third-largest coffee supplier, will produce more this year than previously predicted after a tree-planting program helped to boost yields, according to the country’s growers’ federation. Output will be almost 14 million bags in 2015. The country is set for a bumper Arabica-bean crop of about 1.4 million bags in both November and December. Total coffee exports in 2015 are predicted by the FNC at 12.5 million bags, beating previous targets despite the shortage of rain caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon. Next year’s crop will depend on rainfall but could be similar. FNC also plans to increase the density of tree plantings, lifting productivity to 22 bags per hectare in 2018 from 16.7 bags now. “We’re aiming for 16 million bags in about three year’s time,” Velez said.
While robusta prices on ICE closed at a two-year low, weighed down by substantial global inventories, Brazilian prices for robusta coffee climbed to a record after drought conditions curbed domestic production this year and fueled concern that output will shrink again in 2016. The price in Espirito Santo state, Brazil’s largest robusta producer, rose to 378 reais per 60-kilogram bag on Nov. 26, the highest for the data, which goes back to 2001. Coffee co-operative Cooabriel, Brazil’s biggest grower of robusta, said last month the drought will again curb 2016 output because, in addition to the lack of moisture, the government of Espirito Santo has restricted irrigation to preserve water for human consumption. Continued drought will probably reduce the harvest that starts in the second quarter of 2016 by 30% to 50%, according to Coex Coffee International Inc. Brazil is the second-largest producer of robusta after Vietnam.
LIVESTOCK (4.8% weight in BCOM)
That’s all, folks, for porky pigs after hog futures in Chicago extended a slump to a six-year low. In 2015, the price has plummeted 30%. Domestic pork supplies and inventories are at records, with output set to reach an all-time high for the year. Wholesale prices are the lowest for this time of year since 2009 and the number of hogs slaughtered this year is above 2014’s pace by 7.9%, according to the USDA. With meatpackers still fetching profit margins that are more than triple the average since the end of 2013, the flood of supply isn’t likely to end soon. A stronger dollar - as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BDXY <GO>) reached the highest since data begins in January 2005 - is helping to make domestic meat less costly, as overseas consumers turn to cheaper suppliers. Through September, exports in 2015 dropped 4% from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation. There’s still the chance that higher pork costs in China could lift demand for U.S. meat as the Asian country ends some restrictions on shipments. For now though, the U.S. is awash in ham: Inventories held in freezers increased 27% in September from a year earlier to 247.4 million pounds, an all-time high, government data show.
Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index BUSY 2.76% 3.87% 4.62% 3.83% 4.16%Bloomberg USD IG Corporate Bond Index BUSC 2.81% 3.58% 4.61% 4.04% 4.46%Bloomberg USD HY Corporate Bond Index BUHY 3.12% 4.14% 3.67% 3.00% 3.00%
Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot Index BBDXY 6.08% 5.99% 7.41% 5.90% 6.35% 7.06%
TermMoneyness 90% 100% 110% 90% 100% 110% 90% 100% 110%End of Nov 2% 52% 0% 0% 44% 1% 0% 32% 0%End of Oct 2% 57% 3% -3% 52% -1% 0% 37% -1%End of Nov 3% 45% 1% 2% 42% -1% 1% 38% 0%End of Oct 1% 41% 0% 2% 38% 0% 1% 37% 0%End of Nov 3% 43% 3% 1% 40% 0% 1% 36% 0%End of Oct 4% 38% 2% 2% 38% 0% 1% 36% -1%End of Nov 1% 37% -2% 3% 35% 0% 2% 30% 0%End of Oct 1% 35% 1% 1% 33% 0% 0% 30% 0%End of Nov 2% 41% -2% 0% 37% 0% 0% 33% -1%End of Oct -1% 39% 1% -1% 37% 0% 0% 30% 0%End of Nov 3% 16% 5% -1% 19% 2% -1% 20% 1%End of Oct 2% 18% 2% 0% 21% 1% 0% 22% 0%End of Nov 6% 16% 4% 1% 17% 1% 1% 17% 0%End of Oct 4% 16% 4% 1% 16% 1% 1% 17% 0%End of Nov 1% 20% 4% -1% 22% 2% -1% 24% 1%End of Oct 1% 22% 3% -1% 23% 2% -1% 25% 1%End of Nov 3% 21% 3% 1% 20% 1% 0% 20% 0%End of Oct 3% 23% 4% 1% 22% 1% 0% 22% 1%End of Nov 3% 18% 4% 1% 19% 1% 0% 19% 1%End of Oct 4% 17% 4% 1% 18% 1% 1% 18% 0%End of Nov 0% 19% 4% -2% 22% 2% -1% 23% 1%End of Oct 1% 21% 3% -1% 22% 1% -1% 24% 1%End of Nov 1% 25% 0% 1% 26% -1% 3% 26% -1%End of Oct 3% 26% -1% 1% 25% -1% 3% 25% -2%End of Nov 0% 45% 0% 0% 37% 0% 0% 25% 0%End of Oct 0% 19% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 19% 0%End of Nov 0% 50% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 32% 0%End of Oct 0% 50% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 32% 0%End of Nov 0% 32% 3% 0% 29% 5% 0% 29% 5%End of Oct 0% 38% -1% 0% 37% -1% 0% 37% -1%End of Nov 2% 15% 0% 1% 15% 0% 1% 16% 0%End of Oct 2% 13% 1% 1% 15% 0% 1% 16% 0%End of Nov 6% 24% 2% 3% 25% 1% 2% 26% 0%End of Oct 6% 22% 3% 3% 24% 1% 1% 26% 0%End of Nov 1% 32% 2% -1% 30% 2% -1% 29% 2%End of Oct 1% 32% 2% 0% 30% 1% 0% 28% 1%End of Nov -2% 33% 4% -2% 33% 3% -2% 33% 2%
End of Oct -1% 35% 4% -2% 35% 3% -2% 34% 2%End of Nov 6% 17% 4% 1% 17% 1% 0% 18% 1%End of Oct 3% 18% 3% 1% 18% 1% 1% 18% 0%End of Nov 2% 26% -1% 2% 22% -1% 2% 18% -2%
End of Oct 4% 19% 0% 2% 17% -1% 2% 15% -1%End of Nov 6% 26% 3% 2% 30% -1% 1% 23% -1%End of Oct 3% 30% -1% 2% 28% -1% 1% 22% -1%
BloombergCommodity Index TRS&P 500 Total ReturnIndexBloomberg USTreasury Bond IndexBloomberg USD IGCorporate Bond IndexBloomberg USD HYCorporate Bond IndexBloomberg U.S. DollarSpot Index
USO US United States Oil Fund LP 838.36 2,803.11 29.9%UWTI US VelocityShares 3x Long Crude ETN 387.86 1,000.25 38.8%UCO US ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude 169.34 883.05 19.2%UNG US United States Natural Gas Fund 73.03 487.03 15.0%UGAZ US VelocityShares 3x Long Natural 62.37 368.59 16.9%SLV US iShares Silver Trust 53.83 4,905.94 1.1%USCI US United States Commodity Index 47.45 507.63 9.3%GSG US iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Index 22.13 749.52 3.0%OIL US iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil 20.20 899.57 2.2%
USLV US VelocityShares 3x Long Silver 19.18 118.19 16.2%
All Commodities Sector: Top 10 Redemptions
Ticker Name Net Flows ($ mill)
Beginning Fund Market Cap
($ mill)
% of Funds Market Cap
GLD US SPDR Gold Shares -1,392.35 25,575.70 -5.4%IAU US iShares Gold Trust -116.72 5,963.55 -2.0%
FTGC US First Trust Global Tactical -53.80 251.33 -21.4%DBC US PowerShares DB Commodity Index -44.18 2,453.15 -1.8%
DWTI US VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude -39.96 146.76 -27.2%DJP US iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index -37.37 1,080.95 -3.5%DGL US PowerShares DB Gold Fund -14.39 165.35 -8.7%ZSL US ProShares UltraShort Silver -12.02 68.22 -17.6%
DSLV US VelocityShares 3x Inverse Silver -11.99 21.05 -57.0%SCO US ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg -10.36 109.25 -9.5%
COMMODITY FUTURES TERM STRUCTUREINDUSTRIAL METALS GROUP
PRECIOUS METALS GROUP
SOFTS GROUP
LIVESTOCK GROUP
180190200210220230240
NO
V 15
FEB
16
MAY
16
AUG
16
NO
V 16
FEB
17
MAY
17
AUG
17
DEC
17
JUL
18
MAR
19
SEP
19
MAY
20
Copper
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-20151300
1500
1700
1900
2100
NO
V 15
JUN
16
JAN
17
AUG
17M
AR 1
8O
CT 1
8M
AY 1
9DE
C 19
JUL
20AP
R 21
NO
V 21
JUN
22
JAN
23
AUG
23M
AR 2
4O
CT 2
4M
AY 2
5DE
C 25
Aluminum
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-2015
950100010501100115012001250
NO
V 15
JAN
16
APR
16
AUG
16
DEC
16
APR
17
AUG
17
JUN
18
JUN
19
JUN
20
JUN
21
Gold
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-201512
13
14
15
16
17
NO
V 15
JAN
16
MAY
16
SEP
16
JAN
17
MAY
17
SEP
17
JUL
18
JUL
19
JUL
20
Silver
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-2015
10111213141516
MAR
16
MAY
16
JUL
16
OCT
16
MAR
17
MAY
17
JUL
17
OCT
17
MAR
18
MAY
18
JUL
18
Sugar
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-2015110
120
130
140
150
DEC
15M
AR 1
6M
AY 1
6JU
L 16
SEP
16DE
C 16
MAR
17
MAY
17
JUL
17SE
P 17
DEC
17M
AR 1
8M
AY 1
8JU
L 18
SEP
18
Coffee
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-2015
50556065707580
DEC
15
FEB
16
APR
16
MAY
16
JUN
16
JUL
16
AUG
16
OCT
16
DEC
16
FEB
17
APR
17
Lean Hogs
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-2015
110115120125130135140145150
OCT
15
DEC
15
FEB
16
APR
16
JUN
16
AUG
16
OCT
16
DEC
16
FEB
17
Live Cattle
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-2015
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
NO
V 15
MAR
16
JUL
16N
OV
16M
AR 1
7JU
L 17
NO
V 17
MAR
18
JUL
18N
OV
18M
AR 1
9JU
L 19
NO
V 19
MAR
20
JUL
20N
OV
20
Zinc
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-20158000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
NO
V 15
MAR
16
JUL
16N
OV
16M
AR 1
7JU
L 17
NO
V 17
MAR
18
JUL
18N
OV
18M
AR 1
9JU
L 19
NO
V 19
MAR
20
JUL
20N
OV
20
Nickel
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-2015
59606162636465
DEC
15
MAR
16
MAY
16
JUL
16
OCT
16
DEC
16
MAR
17
MAY
17
JUL
17
OCT
17
DEC
17
MAR
18
MAY
18
JUL
18
Cotton
30-Oct-2015
30-Nov-2015
26
BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE: COMMODITY DASHBOARDS BI <GO>
Crude Oil Production: BI OILS <GO> Natural Gas Production: BI NGAS <GO>
Precious Metal Mining: BI PMET <GO> Agricultural Chemicals: BI AGCH <GO>
Copper: BI COPP <GO> Aluminum: BI ALUM <GO>
BI provides analysis on several key drivers of BCOM performance; industrial and precious metals mining, oil and natural gas production, and agricultural chemicals. The dashboards include key macro data libraries and interactive charting and commentary from analysts with an average of seventeen years of experience.
COMMODITY CHEAT SHEET FOR THE BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL® SERVICE
Broad Commodities EnergyTop commodity news CTOP Top energy news ETOPGlobal commodity prices GLCO Top oil news OTOP Commodity playbook CPLY Crude Oil Production Dashboard BI OILSCommitments of traders report COT First Word oil NI BFWOIL Calendar of commodity events ECO17 News on oil inventories TNI OIL INV Commodity arbitrage calculator CARC Oil Buyer's Guide newsletter NI OBGBRIEFCommodity fundamental data explorer FDM Pipes & Wires newsletter NI PAWSBRIEFCommodity futures overview CMBQ Oil market analysis BOILSecurity finder SECF Nat gas spot prices BGASCommodity data contributors & broker CDAT Forward European utility markets EUMContract table menu CTM News on oil markets NI OILMARKET Seasonality chart SEAG News on OPEC NI OPEC Commodity curve analysis CCRV OPEC production and prices OPECCommodity fair values CFVL Oil markets menu OIL Commodity price forecasts CPFC Crude stored in tankers NOONCommitments of Traders Report COT Refinery outages REFOCommodity maps BMAP Oil’s decline EXT5 Commodity options monitor OMON Oil versus inflation expectations SWIFCommodities charts COSYCommodity Investors menu CMNV MetalsUS exchange traded product fund flows ETF Top metal news METT
Precious metal dashboard BI PMETGBase metals dashboard BI BMET
Commodity Indices Metals prices and data MINE Index description BCOM Index DES Precious metals prices and rates MTL Index constituent weights BCOM Index MEMB Metals Bulletin MB Listed index futures BCOM Index CT COMEX inventories COMX Option volatility surface BCOM Index OVDV LME monitor LME Seasonality chart BCOMNG Index SEAG LME implied volatilities LMIV Commodity index futures movers FMV LME warehouse inventories LMEI Commodity index ranked returns CRR
AgricultureWeather Top agriculture news YTOP Global weather database WETR Agriculture calendar AGRI US snow monitor SNOW Agriculture spot prices AGGPEU weather & utility models EUMM Agriculture supply & demand AGSD
Crop calendar CCAL
BCOM QUICK FACTS
Weighting Bias 2/3 market liquidity and 1/3 world production No. of Commodities 20 Re-balancing Frequency Annual Roll Schedule Monthly (5 day roll) Caps/Limits Single commodity: max 15%
Single commodity and its derivatives: max 25%Related commodity groups: max 33%
First Value Date 30 December 1990
The data provided in this report can be easily accessed on the Bloomberg Professional® service along with numerous news and analytical tools to help you stay on top of the commodity markets.