Blasi alessandro iea

© OECD/IEA 2011

A Glimpse into Energy Trends

Alessandro BlasiOffice of the Chief EconomistInternational Energy Agency

Rome, 18 April 2012

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The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends

Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy & limited

the means of intervention

Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty

MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans

CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high

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Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand

Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario

Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mto

e

China

India

Other developing Asia

Russia

Middle East

Rest of world

OECD

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Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important

Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035

Additional to 2035

2010

World primary energy demand

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear

Mto

e

© OECD/IEA 2011

Energy efficiency is crucial for energy security, climate change and … our pockets

Annual change in global energy intensity for selected periods

Global energy efficiency development is going in the wrong direction

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009 2010

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Efficiency improvements in transport sector limit oil demand growth

World PLDV oil demand in the New Policies Scenario

Oil use by cars expands by only 15% between 2010 & 2035, with more efficient vehicles, less usage & switching to non-oil fuels offsetting most of the impact of a doubling of the fleet

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2010 2035

mb/

d Oil demand

Fleet expansion

Decrease 2010-2035 due to:

Lower average vehicle usage

Improvement in fuel economy

Use of alternative fuels

Increase 2010-2035 due to:

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Changing oil import needs are set toshift concerns about oil security

Net imports of oil

US oil imports drop due to rising domestic output & improved transport efficiency: EU imports overtake those of the US around 2015; China becomes the largest importer around 2020

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

China India EuropeanUnion

UnitedStates

Japan

mb/

d

2000

2010

2035

© OECD/IEA 2011

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2008 2009 2010 2011

EUR b

illio

n

GasOil

3.1%

2.2%

2.7%

3.3%

EU’s oil and gas import bills recorded historical high

EU’s net import bills

% Share of GDP

Debt of Greekgovernment (end of 2011)

EU spending on imports was almost two-thirds higher in 2011 than 2009 as a result of higher international oil prices & oil-indexed gas prices

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Efficiency gains can contribute most to EU emissions reductions

Energy efficiency measures – driven by strong policy action across all sectors – account for 50% of the cumulative CO2 abatement over the Outlook period

European Union energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario

Abatement 2020 2035

Efficiency 68% 48%Renewables 25% 21%Biofuels 2% 6%Nuclear 1% 11%CCS 3% 14%Total (Mt CO2) 269 1032

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Gt

New PoliciesScenario

450 Scenario

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Why energy efficiency does matter: country case study - Russia

The current international market value of the primary resources that could be saved by deploying more efficient energy technologies is about $70 billion

Energy savings from raising efficiency to comparable OECD levels, 2008

- 100 0 100 200 300 400

Other

Buildings

Transport

Industry

Gas flaring

Indirect savings

Other energy sector

Electricity and heat

Fina

l con

sum

ption

Mtoe

Energy consumption

Potential savings

© OECD/IEA 2011

Overview of WEO-2012

A full update of energy projections by country, fuel & sector, to 2035

Objective & comprehensive analysis of topical issues Fuel focus: energy efficiency – how to unlock the potential climate impact on energy trends energy-water nexus indicators to track energy access

In addition, 2 special reports 29 May: the role of best practices (“Golden Rules”) for

a Golden Age of Gas Early October: first-ever in-depth outlook for Iraq

(also included in full WEO) Full WEO-2012 launch on 12 November

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Grazie!

[email protected] www.iea.orgwww.worldenergyoutlook.org