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Robert Gover (born November 2, 1929) grew up in an endowed orphanage (Girard
College in Philadelphia), attended the
University of Pittsburgh on athletic scholarship
(swimming the butterfly), received a degree in
economics, worked as a journalist, became a
bestselling novelist by age 30, lived most of his
life in California where he began his study of
astrology, and now resides in Rehoboth Beach,
Delaware. His latest novel is Two Brothers.
He describes it as an economic novel. One
brother becomes a millionaire, the other a skid
row bum. A third character was an economics
professor till he studied astrologyhe was
subsequently confined in an insane asylum.
Roberts first novel, One Hundred Dollar
Misunderstanding, is a satire on racism and
remains a cult classic. He has published 10
novels and 2 works of nonfiction, including
Time and Money: the Economy and the Planets.
He can be reached at [email protected].
By
Robert Gover, USA
he term Black Swan is used to
describe events which are
unpredictable, have a
tremendous impact, and are rationalized
only after the fact. In economics, great
depressions and stock market panics are
usually viewed as Black Swan events.
For instance, at the time of the stock
market crash of October 1929, there was
no known logical reason why stocks
should crash and keep going down and
down and down and then lead into the
greatest depression to that point in
history. It was a Black Swan event
nothing in the past pointed to its
possibility.
Go ask your portfolio manager for his
definition of risk, and odds are that he
will supply you with a measure that
excludes the possibility of the Black
Swanhence one that has no better
predictive value for assessing the total
risks than astrology (1)
Actually, astrology is the best way to
explain Black Swan events in the
economic realm, as I will show in this
article.
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The term is believed to have been coined by the Roman poet Juvenal and used in 16th
Century London to describe an impossibility. All swans were believed to have white
features until swans with black feathers were discovered in the outback of Australia, a
Black Swan discovery that happened in 1697. Still, the term continues to be used for the
unpredictable and unprecedented, especially in economics and finance.
Tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions are also Black Swan
events in the natural realm. The 2011 Japanese Tohoku earthquake and tsunami and
resulting nuclear plant meltdowns hit with astounding surprise. We know that San
Francisco is located on a dangerous fault line but we cannot predict when another
earthquake may hit, nor if it will devastate that city. Tornadoes come out of nowhere,
it seems, although later we can piece together the meteorological factors that created one.
We know the East Coast and Gulf Coast are likely to be hit by hurricanes during the late
summer and early autumn, and we can track tropical depressions moving across the
Atlantic and note when they reach hurricane proportions but we cannot predict where
exactly they will hit and with precisely what devastation. Seismic sensors can detect
volcanic activity but we cannot predict exactly when another Mount St. Helens will
blow and wipe out forests and towns.
Amazing artistic creations and scientific discoveries that come like a bolt from the blue
are also categorized as Black Swan events. In this essay, I focus on Black Swan economic
events. Such events are beyond any logical risk assessment. The famous economist John
Maynard Keynes pointed out that there is no scientific basis on which to form any
calculable probability for such events. They come as total surprises and are rationalized
only after the fact.
In the 1990s a couple of brainy mathematicians came up with a formula for consistently
profiting from options trading. They won a Nobel Prize. Their formula led to the
creation of what was then a unique investment firm, Long Term Capital Management.
But the crash of LTCM and the Federal Reserves rush to prop up the wrecked banking
system thereafter became a Black Swan event. The professors formula addressed known
risk, but not unpredictable, unprecedented Black Swan events. (2)
Long Term Capital Managements crash was triggered by Russias allowing its currency
to failsomething the best financial brains deemed an impossibilityon August 17, 1998
with Uranus in Aquarius forming a grand cross pattern with Saturn in Taurus, Venus in
Leo and Chiron in Scorpio.
The financial meltdown of 2008 was another Black Swan event, for although there was a
bubble in real estate prices, there was no known reason why the puncturing of that
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bubble would create such chaos in the worlds financial system and economy. After the
fact, reasons abound in the hidden transactions involving trillions of dollars of unfunded
credit default swaps and the marketing of mortgage securities without legal transference
of property titles. The full story of how this happened has not yet came to light. (See
www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3Dm9ISwQt8. for some details about the credit default
swap scandal that has yet to be cogently covered by the mass media.)
Western astrologers will recognize in Black Swan events the influence of Uranus. In
primary aspect to other planets, Uranus brings the unpredictable and unprecedented to
individuals and whole societies. These Uranian surprises impact our world in ways that we
can only rationalize later, after the fact, when we look back and try to fit the event into
some logical, cause-effect paradigm.
Yet seven decades after the great depression of the 1930s, economists still debate why it
happened, and what can be done to prevent it ever happening again. Economists who say
they have logically solved the riddle are vulnerable to looking foolish when the next
economic Black Swan event hits.
Given Uranus role in Black Swan events, if economists were able to overcome their
prejudice against astrology, a whole new realm of cause-effect relationships would open
to them.
The crashes of 1929 and 2008 both occurred under a T square formed by Uranus, Saturn
and Pluto. The way to foresee the possibility of Black Swan events is by charting the
astrology involved. And the key to analyzing is the position of Uranus and the aspects it
makes at the time, especially to the other three outermost planetsSaturn, Neptune and
Plutoand to the natal chart of whomever or whatever is affected. (See Charts 1. 2, 3 and
4).
After a Black Swan event, we are usually able to define a chain of causes and effects that
led to it, even though there is likely to be disagreement on precisely which precipitated it.
What can we say for sure about the crash of 1929 and the great depression that followed?
Suddenly, within a few months, the national mood changed from optimism to
pessimism. Was it that change of mood that precipitated the crash and depression? Or
was the pessimism caused by the crash and depression?
Astrologically, the answer is that both occurred simultaneously. The 1930s unfolded as
Uranus inched into Aries, forming a square with Saturn in Capricorn and Pluto opposite
in Cancer, with all three creating a grand cross pattern with the USAs Sun-Saturn
square.
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That T square repeated early in this millennium when Uranus in Pisces moved opposite
Saturn in Virgo with Pluto square both from Sagittarius, afflicting the USAs natal
Mars-Neptune square. The orbs are not exact and the Signs arent the same but the
planetary angles and transit-to-natal impact are unmistakable.
This is not to say that there are never rational reasons for Black Swan economic events.
Its just that those reasons are hidden or ignored till its too late. As Robert Reich (3) has
pointed out, Its no mere coincidence that over the last century the top earners share of
the nations total income peaked in 1928 and 2007the two years just preceding the
biggest downturns.
But very few individuals tracked this growing disparity back then. The few who worried
about it were accused of fomenting class warfare. Now, in the wake of the 2008 crash,
more and more people are becoming aware of the huge disparity between the few super
rich and the rest of humanity, although how this disparity developed is still debated, as
no single explanation satisfies all.
ard angles formed by the outermost planets coincide with highlighting what
has gotten out of balance. What is now out of balance economically is this
huge disparity of wealth. What to do about it is another and more vexing
question.
We must make a distinction between stock market crashes and great depressions, though,
for one rarely leads to the other. Stocks have crashed when the overall economy
remained robust, and great depressions have preceded sinking stock markets.
Looking back through history, we find that every time the USAs Sun-Saturn square has been
afflicted by a grand cross formed by the outermost planets the national economy has fallen into a
great depression. Great depressions are not to be confused with recessions, corrections or
depressions without the adjective great. Economist Ravi Batra (4) defined great
depression this way:
A recession usually lasts for one to three years, during which the rate of
unemployment, while rising, is generally below 12 percent. When a recession lasts for
more than three years, and/or the rate of unemployment lies between 12 percent and
20 percent, the economy may be said to be suffering from a depression. When
unemployment remains high and business stagnates for six or more years, the nations
plight may be called a great depression. Thus, depending on its severity in depth and
H
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length, the downswing of the business cycle may be defined as a recession, depression,
or great depression.
By that definition, there have been four great depressions so far in the history of the USA.
Each has occurred under afflictions to the USAs Sun-Saturn square, with Saturn in
Capricorn and Uranus prominent. (5)
1780s with Saturn in Capricorn opposite the US Sun in Cancer and square the US Saturn
in Libra, Uranus conjunct the US Sun square Neptune in Libra conjunct the US Saturn.
1840s with Saturn in Capricorn opposite the US Sun in Cancer, square Pluto opposite the
US Saturn from Aries, and Uranus opposite the US Neptune from Pisces, square the US
Mars in Gemini.
1870s with Saturn in Capricorn opposite the US Sun in Cancer, Uranus conjunct Jupiter
and the US Sun in Cancer, and Neptune in Aries opposite the US Saturn in Libra.
1930s (by Christmas 1930) Saturn in Capricorn opposite the US Sun in Cancer, which
was conjoined by Jupiter and Pluto, and Uranus in Aries opposite the US Saturn.
Other periods have been economically difficult and often called depressions, but those
four fit the metrics defining great depressions.
By 2025, we may look back on the 2000-teens as a fifth great depression, although as of
this writing, our travail is still described as a great recession. Euphemisms are little
comfort to those whose lives have been devastated by the meltdown of 2008, however
todays unemployment statistics have been politicized, so that 9% really means closer
to 18% or 20% when all the unemployed are taken into account. Given the desire of most
politicians to put a smiley face on our economic situation, the economists they hire
obligingly fudge the numbers.
We may look back on this period as the most difficult in our history, for this time it is
Pluto in Capricorn, not Saturn, and Pluto is square Uranus in Aries. All previous great
depressions since the Industrial Revolution have occurred under Saturn in Capricorn.
Tiny little Pluto takes an average of 248 years to orbit the Sun, and hasnt been in
Capricorn since colonial times and the American Revolution. From 1755 to 1758, Uranus
in Pisces squared Pluto in Sagittarius, making seven direct hits. These were the years
leading up to the American Revolution, which manifested in warfare when Pluto went
into Capricorn.
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Uranus-Pluto squares from Aries to Capricorn are exceedingly rare: Prior to the one
were presently under, there were only two going back to the year 1. In 258-259, a killer
smallpox pandemic ravaged the Roman Empire. In 1676 to 1678, an uprising called
Bacons Rebellion unfolded in the Virginia Colony when English indentured servants
and African slaves united against the colonys aristrocracy, killed Indians and burned
Jamestown to the ground, sending landowners fleeing to the Eastern Shore; the outcome
was the legal color coding of the working class into separate races called black and white.
Stock market crashes are another category of Black Swan events. A distinction must be
made between the overall economy and the stock market. The stock market is part of the
economy but by no means the leading indicator of overall economic health or illness.
That leading indicator is employment/unemployment.
Almost every time there has been a surprising stock market crash that has come with
such surprise it has caused panic, the USAs natal Mars-Neptune square has been
afflicted by transiting planets, especially the outermost four. (See An Astrological
History of Stock Market Crashes by Robert Gover in the ISAR Magazine, Autumn
2011.) Not all panic crashes lead into great depressions.
A few especially intuitive investors may anticipate a crash. These anticipators are
usually called doom and gloomers before the crash. Cassandra has never been popular.
After each crash, a variety of explanations are put forward as to why it happened. Still,
the only way to really explain this type of Black Swan event is to understand the
astrology involved.
The crash of October 19, 1987 was a shocker, and many an analyst at the time predicted
that it would lead into another great depression. (See Chart 5.) But it did not. Why?
Again, astrology holds the explanation. For this crash, the USAs Mars-Neptune square
was afflicted by Saturn and Uranus in Sagittarius, and Chiron in Gemini. Great
Depression occur when the USAs Sun-Saturn square is afflicted by outermost planets in
the Cardinal Signs of Capricorn, Aries, Cancer and Libra. In 1987 the affliction was to
the natal Mars-Neptune square. By the early 1990s when Saturn had moved into
Capricorn, there was a recession but not a great depression because there was no
outermost planetary affliction to the US Sun-Saturn square.
As an economic astrologer I rely on the primary angles formed by the outermost four
planets, plus the Moons Nodes and Chiron, to ascertain what to expect in the stock
market and economy. However, the cosmic environment our Earth lives within is in
constant motion, so no two moments in cosmic time are the same astrologically.
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Primary planetary angles repeatthe New Moon repeats every 28 days, the Neptune-
Pluto conjunction every 496 yearsbut always within a changed cosmic environment.
This ever changing phenomenon reflects how we perceive earthbound history as ever
repeating but never duplicating. So there is no guarantee that these planetary patterns
which have brought Black Swan crashes and great depressions in the past will bring the
same in the future. It may be that we are influenced by celestial bodies so far distant that
we have not yet seen and identified them. Yet the astrology of past Black Swan events
remains the best way to ascertain when another will hit, with hard angles from Uranus
the most indicative pattern to look for.
Chart 1
The two most economically sensitive points in the USAs chart are two squares: Sun in
Cancer square Saturn in Libra and Mars in Gemini square Neptune in Virgo. Afflictions
to the Sun-Saturn square impact the overall economy. Afflictions to the Mars-Neptune
square bring down the stock markets. On Black Monday 1929, a stock market crash was
indicated by the opposition of T Saturn and Jupiter hitting the natal Mars-Neptune
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square. Moon conjunct natal Neptune apparently triggered the panic. A few months
later, trouble for the overall economy was indicated by T Uranus opposite the US Saturn,
square T Pluto conjunct the US Sun.
Chart 2
Biwheel Chart 2 shows the T square formed by Uranus, Saturn and Pluto about a year
after the Crash of 1929 as people were realizing that this crash was unlike any previous,
and was leading the nation into what we now call The Great Depression. When the
Crash of 29 occurred in late October, the T square had not yet formed but was applying.
Notice that in the chart for Christmas 1930 the Uranus-Saturn-Pluto T square afflicts the
USAs natal Sun-Saturn square. Its this square that has always been afflicted when great
depressions have hit the USA.
Chart 3
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By mid-September 2008, it was clear that another Black Swan market event was
unfolding. Notice that the T square formed by Uranus, Saturn and Pluto this time hit the
USAs natal Mars-Neptune squareindicating that this was strictly a stock market
and/or financial catastrophe. As Uranus then moved into Aries, it opposed Saturn in
Libra conjunct the US Saturn and square the US Sun, with Pluto applying to an
opposition to the US Sun. This indicated another great depression, although few were
willing to call it that by 2011. Every time the USAs Sun-Saturn square has been hit by
the outermost planets from Capricorn and Aries, the nation has gone into a great
depression. Logical reasons why each happened are found later, after such Black Swan
events.
Chart 4
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Notice in this chart for 2015 that the US Saturn is opposed by Uranus, Mars and Venus
in Aries, square Pluto in Capricorn opposition the US Sun. On this particular day,
March 5, 2015, the Full Moon is conjunct and opposite the US Neptune square the US
Mars in Gemini. What this indicates is that the nation, and probably the whole world, is
very likely to be in the pits of another great depression, with the strong possibility of
another financial crash making things even more difficult. What is likely to be different
about this great depression is a militant mood, indicated by Plutos position. Plutos
arrival in Capricornevery 248 years on averagehas a history of coinciding with
revolutions. Its previous sojourn through Capricorn coincided with the American
Revolution. The one before that coincided with the decimation of Native American
populations from diseases imported by Spanish conquistadors, to which the Indians had
no immunity, and the shipment of tons of gold and sliver back to Europe, setting off
inflation and a series of wars. In effect, both Hemispheres underwent cultural and
economic transformations as Europeans invaded the New World in search of gold and
silver.
Chart 5
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It was the USAs financially-sensitive Mars-Neptune square that was hit when stocks
suddenly crashed to a new one-day record October 19, 1987. Uranus at 23 Sagittarius was
opposite the US Mars, conjoined at this time by Chiron, and square the US Neptune,
conjoined by the Moon. Although Jupiter was in Aries opposite the US Saturn, its trine
to Uranus apparently saved the overall economy, for the stock market rebounded in the
coming months. A couple of years later, with Saturn, Uranus and Neptune all clustered
together in Capricorn, the Berlin Wall came down and major restructuring occurred in
economies around the worldthe Old Soviet Union disbanded and the USA ramped up
laissez-faire capitalismbut no great depression occurred.
Two Rules Of thumb: No grand cross hitting the USAs Sun-Saturn square, no great depression. And when the USAs Mars-Neptune square is afflicted, there is danger of another
stock market crash.
The tremendous impact on humanity of Black Swan events is best appreciated in
retrospect. At the time of each, people are baffled.
Judging by the increased incidence of Black Swan events since the Uranus-Pluto square
began tightening toward exact in 2008first from Pisces to Sagittarius and then from
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Aries to Capricornthe world as we know it will soon be transformed, presenting us
with a variety of new challenges. That much we can deduce from the astrology involved.
What we cannot yet know is how we humans will handle those challenges.
In Western culture, we have been imbued with the belief that its up to each individual to
find ways to survive and prosper. Intuitively anticipating hard times, some people talk of
storing up gold for a day when our money becomes useless; or moving to a tropical island
and living a self-sustaining life; or turning homes into fortresses to defend against
marauding mobs, and so forth. But such preparations are iffy at best because Black Swan
events are unpredictable and bring the unprecedented. Those two key words
unpredictable and unprecedentedhave long been used to describe the effects of hard
angles to Uranus.
Endnotes:
1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Influence of the Highly
Improbable, published April 22, 2007, TatePublishing.com.
2. In his book The Ascent of Money, Niall Ferguson has a cogent explanation of this Black
Swan event from page 320 to 330. In brief, if the Nobel Prize winning mathematicians
had known more about economic history and Black Swan events, they would not have
been so sure of their risk-assessment formula guaranteeing profits from options and
derivatives trades. Investors put so much faith in this formula that big banks bet billions
of dollarsand lost.
Robert Reich is Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at
Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations, most recently as secretary of
labor under President Bill Clinton. He has written thirteen books, including The Work of
Nations, Locked in the Cabinet, Supercapitalism, and his most recent book, Aftershock.
See Great Depression 1990 by Ravi Batra, published by Dell, 1998. Although no great
depression hit the USA in 1990, the Japanese economy slumped into a prolonged
depression. From Wikipedia: Batra continued to publish books with the main thesis
that financial capitalism breeds excessive inequality and political corruption which
inevitably succumbs to financial crisis and economic depression. Great depressions in
the USA have occurred when Saturn in Capricorn combined with Uranus, Neptune
and/or Pluto to create a grand cross pattern with the USAs natal Sun-Saturn square. In
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1990, Saturn in Capricorn made no such pattern with the other outermost planets. No
grand cross, no great depression. But American jobs were steadily eroded by automation
and corporate outsourcing to cheap labor markets overseas.
Economists do not agree on the specific dates when each great depression began, so it is
impossible to pinpoint a specific date for precise astrological calculation. But the
outermost planets move slowly, so the aspects they form are within orb for extended
periods. These extended periods encompass disagreements among economists. In
retrospect, it is clear that its impossible to pinpoint a specific date and time when any
great depression began. The relevant economic factors involved usually develop in a
zigzag pattern of fits and starts. Given our human proclivity to hope for the best, these
fits and starts are often misread at the time, and corrected after the fact. As I write this,
there is great disagreement concerning the true unemployment figures. What we know
for sure is that unemployment and under-employment are enough to curtail demand for
goods and services, which in turn curtails the production to supply goods and services,
and the bank credit needed to restore normal buying and selling. By the time you read
this, the government may or may not have stimulated enough demand to reverse this
downward cycle.
