Biuspp metrex

1

BIUSPP Project.

1. Theoretical-Practical foundations.

2. Project BIUSPP Proposal.

3. Commitments.

José Quintás Alonso.Mayo 2007

-> To ->

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Theoretical-Practical Foundations.

1. Justification of study.

2. Objectives.

3. State-of-the-art.

4. Formulation of hypothesis.

5. Quantitative investigation.

6. Conclusions.

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“Analysis of the factors and policies that contribute to the design and

execution of the Strategic Planning of big cities and metropolitan areas -

based on the experiences of Barcelona, Bilbao and Valencia”

(28 de febrero de 2006- Cum laude-)

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Justification of Study.

• Quality and quantity of resources: – Pioneers: 1982-84. – Decade of the 90s. CIDEU – Europe:

• Munich: GründerRegio M - [GRM_engl]

• London: http://www.london.gov.uk/

• Paris: http://www.parisdeveloppement.com/

• Berlin: http://www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de/index_en.shtml

• Dublin: http://www.dublincity.ie/

• Spain: 90 PEU and around 13 mll hb

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Justification of Study.

•   Political attention.– UE-DGXIII and methodology EASW (European

Awareness Scenario Workshop). • 1994: http://www.cordis.lu/easw/home.html.

– Spain: Law 57/2003 Art. 131.

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Justification of Study.

• University. – TESEO (D. Pedro Manuel Gómez Rodriguez - 2001).

– Thesis defended by D Ramon Sanguino. • “Management of knowledge and competitiveness: analysis in Spanish

cities”. Read in January of 2005, obtaining cum laude unanimously.

• It claimed: “The economic, urban-space, institutional and social-demographic components of the competitiveness of a city (are as in) the investigation of Goatherd, Ziccardi, and Orihuela (2003). Our investigation contributes a fifth component, the strategic, which must be considered in the study of the competitiveness of the city, having been shown to be trustworthy and valid”.

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Justification of Study.

• Demographic tendencies.• 1997 - 46% of the population lived in

cities.

• 2015 - We estimate that 55% will live in cities.

The government of urban matters should not be left to chance.

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State-of-the-art. The borderlines.

Department of Engineering, Cambridge: The Institute of “Governance Public Policy and Social Research” ( Queens’s University Belfast):

This is the field to investigate

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Objectives.

• To design a model that can determine the factors of the success of a Process of Strategic Planning in big cities; in the best of the cases we will be able to draw some conclusion about the initial values of viability.

• Variables: – To identify them.

– To quantify them.

– Can we identify statistical correlation?

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State-of-the-Art. –Non-structured Decisiones.

Identificación Desarrollo Selección Busqueda Chequeo Autoriz. Juicio Diagnóstico Diseño Eval/ Eleg Decisión Análisis inicial. Ocasión Eval/ Eleg Elementos (12). Fases: 3: Identificación, desarrollo y Selección. Rutinas: 3: control, comunicación, politicas. Factores dinámicos: 6: Interrupciones, retrasos programados, realimentaciones, retrasos y activaciones programados, ciclos, re-ciclos. Mintzberg y otros. 1976. ASQ 21.

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State-of-the-Art. Process of Urban Strategic Planning (PEU)

F.Güell

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State-of-the-Art. Tools:

• Fundamental data.

• Five forces comp.

• 13 driven forces.

• Matrices of segmentation.

• Situation maps.

• Strategies of the rivals.

• Key factors.

• SWOT / DAFO.

• Chain of value.

• Resulting position

–Trees of competition –Strategic Diagnosis–Structural Analysis Mactor –Morphologic analysis –Delphi –Abacus of Regnier –Crossed impacts –Trees of ownership–Multipol

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State of the Arte Sectors:

1. Demography.

2. Formation.

3. Agriculture.

4. Industry.

5. Services.

6. Transports.

7. Telecommunications.

8. Dwellings.

9. Collective infrastructures and equipment.

10. Public support.

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State-of-the-Art. Causes:

Causas Inicio PEU

0 10 20 30 40 50

1

Otros

Colabo.púb-pri.

Coordinación

Seguir ejemplos

Mejora Cont.

Revitalización

Crisis

Evento

http://www.ebropolis.es/

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State-of-the-Art. Impulsion:

Impulsión PEU

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Pública

Privada

Mixta

Serie1

http://www.ebropolis.es/

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Formulation of Hypothesis.Variables:

• The exploration of relevant literature and the opinion of people dedicated to political and consulting activity, leads us to propose that the success of the Process of Strategic Planning depends on a series of variables to do with aptitudes and others with attitudes.

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Formulation of Hypothesis. Delphi:

1. Which variable? What is its influence on the success of the elaboration and execution of a Strategic Plan of the city?

2. What weight would we assign to each mentioned variable in order to explain the success of the Strategic Plan?

3. Given that the variables cannot be directly quantified, what indicators could be used to describe them quantitatively?

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Formulation of Hypothesis. Hypothesis:

1. The leadership of the Mayor is significant in the success of the USP. 2. The commitment citizen agents is significant in success of the USP. 3. The citizen “temperature”, its culture of collaboration, of effort, identification

and resilience, is significant in the success of the USP. 4. The aptitude of the consultant is significant in the success of the USP.5. The aptitude of the framework organizations is significant in the success of the

USP. 6. The aptitude of the organizations in coordinating between themselves is

significant in success of the USP. 7. Attitudes and Aptitudes influence in an approximated proportion of 2.33 (0.7

and 0.3 respectively). Note. – We have not considered the interrelationships between the different

protagonists.

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Quantitative Research. Design:

• Survey - Likert type. – 68 Items. Oriented to Success - variable objective

– In addition, some items:• Forrester Information Diagram

• On the coherence of the answers

• Frequent opinions in internal forums of political parties.

– The survey has been carried out by means of interviews in depth with professionals in research and the policy making.

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Quantitative Research. Characteristics:

• Object population: members of general governing council Bilbao, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville.

• 617 letters.

• 569 letters arrived to the organizations 29th of November 2004.

• Two telephone rounds.

• 5th of February beginning of tabulation.

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Quantitative Research. Analysis of results and resistance of hypothesis - basic assumptions.

• Alpha:– .6-.7 >Acceptable.– .7-.8 >Moderate.– .8-.9 >Good.– -9-. >Excelent.

• KMO:– >0,5 Correct.– <0,5 Reject.

0,70 a 0,90

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Quantitative Research. Analysis results and resistance of hypothesis – Reliability.

• Variable-Alfa- KMO-% Var

• Success 0,86 0,82 76,65

• OT 0,80 0,73 59,62

• TC 0,69 0,66 59,58

• CAG 0,78 0,72 53,72

• MC 0,87 0.84 68,8

• Lgen 0,49 0,499 48,636

• Lrec 0,4875 correlation

• OM 0,89 0,83 60,19

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Quantitative Research. Analysis of results and resistance of hypothesis 9 Models.

Diap 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 7.15 7.16 7.17 7.18 7.19P 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.02 0.8 0.4 0.0GFI 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.92 0.9 0.9 0.77AGFI -0.0 -0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.75 0.2 0.9 0.49RMSEA 0.4 0.7 0 0 0.2 0.13 0 0 0.28NFI 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.93 0.9 0.9 0.73CFI 0.2 0.4 1 1 0.8 0.96 1 1 0.75R*R 49% 76% 46%

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Quantitative Research. Analysis results and resistance of hypothesis; final model.

Exito OMarco

OT

MC

TC

CAG

LGen

LRec

eex1

emc1

eom1

eot1

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Quantitative Research. Analysis results and resistance of hypothesis. Evaluation of the final model.

Ajuste:1. P (chi-cuadrado) -0,939-Good fit

2. Normed Fit Index -0,986-Excelent

3. Comparative Fit I. -1-Perfect

4. Goodness of Fit I. -0,979- Excelent

5. Adjusted of Fit I. -0,933-Correct

6. Root Mean Square E. A. -0- Perfect

Explaining power: 76%

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Quantitative Research. Analysis of results y comparison to hypothesis:

,76

Exito,82

OMarco

,36

OT

,55

MC

TC

CAG

LGen

LRec

,49

,17

,30,49

,26

,45

,35,20

,28

,31

,19

,72

,23

,47

,41

eex

,26

emc

eom

eot

,30

–Standardized Output. Intensity coefficients paths.

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Quantitative Research. . Analysis of results y comparison to hypothesis:

Exito OMarco

OT

MC

41,98

TC

49,06

CAG

20,94

LGen

6,96

LRec

,37

,19

,29,64

,41

,51

,48,32

,35

,51

,84

32,80

6,79

8,03

7,61

17,63

eex1

,88

35,15

emc1

23,76

eom1

35,34

eot1

10,73

Non-standardized Output.

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Quantitative Research. Analysis of results y comparison to hypothesis:

Acot<Temciv 0.514 <0.001 Omarco<Acot 0.406 <0.001

MC<Temciv 0.481 <0.05 Omarco<Cag 0.323 <0.05

MC<Cag 0.349 <0.05 Omarco<lidrecgi 0.837 <0.05

Acot<Lidgen 0.511 <0.05 Exitorot<Omarco 0.369 <0.001

Mc<Lirecgi 0.880 <0.05 Exitorot<Acot 0.193 <0.05

Omarco<mc 0.640 <0.001 Exitorot<mc 0.295 <0.05

–All the weights of regression are significant

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Quantitative Research. Analysis of results y comparison to hypothesis:

 lidrec

gilidge

ncag

temciv

mcaco

tomarc

o

mc ,880 ,000,34

9,481

,000

,000

,000

acot ,000 ,511,00

0,514

,000

,000

,000

omarco

1,400 ,207,54

6,517

,640

,406

,000

exitorot

,776 ,175,30

5,432

,531

,343

,369

–Non-standarized total effects

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Quantitative Research. Analysis of results y comparison to hypothesis: Significative Effects.

 lidrec

gilidge

ncag

temciv

mcaco

tomarc

o

mc ,261 ,000,27

6,352

,000

,000

,000

acot ,000 ,314,00

0,447

,000

,000

,000

omarco

,320 ,082,33

2,290

,492

,262

,000

exitorot

,237 ,093,24

7,324

,545

,296

,493

Standardized total effects .

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Quantitative Research. Analysis of results y comparison to hypothesis: Stability Estimations.

• Bootstrapping process. – Diaconis and Efrón (1983). – Tries to construct population from the sample. – Calculates the parameters and confidence.

• Repetitions. – In 19 constructs 500 games – 0 for incorrect matrices of covariance – 0 for solution not-found – 500 usable.

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Quantitative Research. Analysis of results y comparison to hypothesis: Stability Estimations.

Parameter Estima. Lower Upper P

MC .554-.570 0.423 0.712 0.004

Acot .363-.382 0.239 0.520 0.004

Omarco .822-.833 0.767 0.891 0.004

Exitorot .764-.776 0.699 0.852 0.004

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Conclusion. First:

The factors that influence decisively in the success of a USP are:

• Leadership of the Mayor or President of the organization which supports the process of Urban Strategic Planning.

• Citizen “temperature”. • Urban commitment of social and economic agents.• Aptitude of the technical office.• Aptitude of the Framework Organizations. • Handling of the complexity.

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Conclusions. Second:

• The above variables are related according to a pre- and post-conditions. That is to say, the suitable attitudes are a necessary pre-condition.

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Conclusions. Third:

• At the present moment we cannot to affirm nor to deny the relation between Attitudes/Aptitudes of 7/3.

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Conclusions. Fourth:

• We have standardized and non-standardized coefficients of regression of the variables implied in the model, as well as of the tables of the total effects on the dependent variable success of the USP.

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Conclusions.Fifth:

• If we take as established the Strategic Planning as the fifth component of the competitiveness of a city and that aptitudes are influenced by attitudes, these will be a differential factor for the cities/metropolitan areas to articulate the described system, these being subject to the same economic, scientific and cultural environment.

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Conclusions. Sixth:

• The serious difficulties in the structuring of the Spanish MA will make the existence of the suitable preconditions difficult, the processes of strategic planning at this territorial level, starting off with problematic initial values. We can stress the importance of the difficulty to establish leadership in these MA.

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Conclusions. Seventh:

• In article published in Februar 2007, we showed it is probable that attitudes are necessary and sufficient conditions for success.

• The aptitudes having reinforcement character.

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FINAL THOUGHTS.• The main contribution of this thesis is the exposition of a

conceptual framework from which the conclusions have been extracted and which we have been shown. – That is to say, if one does not agree it is necessary to

demonstrate why: “I do not agree” is meaningless. – We have made a brick; METREX could animate to continue

this Basic Investigation into this well-known, marshy and rich land.

• This framework must be see as a step in an attempt formalize the study of these matters; theses having a strong “political” component that we wished to introduce a bit into the scientific field.

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The industrial design uses the CAD/CAM.The architectonic design uses the Autocad.And so on...But the social design uses...?

Maybe the intuition,Perhaps the test and error or revolution / reaction…

It is important to say that FORMAL social design is almost non-existent, whereas within the spheres of architectural, computer, science and industrial design etc. it has been greatly evolved technologically; This is why we have made the following proposal:

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BIUSPP Proposal.• If we propose the validation of a mathematical and

quantitative theory, oriented to define and quantify the success of the processes of Urban strategic planning (GOVERNANCE), we would introduce a fundamental INNOVATION in the way of governing our metropolitan cities and areas.

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BIUSPP Proposal: lines of investigation.

1. To validate on a European scale the proposed mathematical model.

2. Operational criteria of allocation of responsibilities. OSI Model.

3. Initial conditions for the operation of public organizations. Boundary and control.

4. Construction of interfaces that favor the use of the existing tools of decision.

5. Development of units of dynamic systems to promote its introduction in non-university educational levels.

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BIUSPP Proposal (1º Line).

1. To validate on European scale the proposed mathematical model. • Line of validation of conclusions. • Delphi members of the project and those technicians, politicians,

members of the civil society must be shown to be suitable. • Parallel design of multivariate analysis based on quantitative data. • Establishment of the Likert questionnaire.• Collection of the data. • Path analysis and structural equations.• The results of both processes must converge reasonably.• Conclusions. • A cost of 9,000€ is considered by area or implied metropolitan

region. The participation of 30 areas would imply 270,000€.

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BIUSPP Proposal (2º line).

2. Operational criteria of allocation of responsibilities. OSI Model. • Line of legal capacities.• Establishment of a framework of legal responsibilities (legal powers) of the

European metropolitan areas. • Establishment of the aspects to be considered in each capacity. • To limit the number of levels of Government.• To assign values according to the results of the third line of investigation. • Theory. • Establishment of a Likert questionnaire.• To obtain data from the deputies of the different parliaments. • Path analysis and structural equations.• Conclusions. • A cost of 12,000€ is considered by each member country, that is to say, a

total of 360,000€

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BIUSPP Proposal (3º line).

3. Initial conditions of operation of public organizations. Boundary and control .

• Line of initial conditions in the organizations for correct operation. • Study of experience. • Establishment of accepted resemblances. Establishment of criteria

commonly accepted to decide purchase and investments. • Establishments of criteria to measure the efficiency, effectiveness,

quality and proximity of the organizations. Boundary and control .• Can they be got around?• Reformulation of criteria. • Final proposal.• 6,000€ are considered by participant area; given 30 members, we

would have need 180,000€.

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BIUSPP Proposal (4º line).

4-. Construction of interfaces that favor the use of the existing tools of decision making.

• Line of support for the decision making.• Location of the know-how. • Work of dissemination of the knowledge by the celebration of days

for investigators, consultants and politicians.• Conditions to make the interface.• Prototype.• Tests on-line. • Conditions in order to produce effective software. • A cost of 9,000€ is considered per country member, that is to say:

270.000€.

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BIUSPP Proposal(5º line).

5. Development of units of Dynamic Systems to promote introduction at non-university educational levels.

• Line of DS. • Establishment of a pilot group of professors according to participant

areas.• Training.• Previous Proposals. • Tests.• Proposals. • Elaboration of materials.• This is considered at about 6,000€ by participant area; if we suppose

30 areas, we would have to count on 180,000€.

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BIUSPP Proposal.

Resources (1º)• Profile of investigating responsibilities.

– PHd researchers (engineering, economics, physics, mathematics, psychology, sociology…) Opened to all the area participants. Selected for concrete needs.

– Software tools: SPSS, AMOS, Table Curve and similar.

– Qualitative methods (Delphi…).

– Quantitative methods SEM including the multivariate analysis and path analysis.

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BIUSPP Proposal.

Resources   (2º)• Profile of coordinating responsibilities, field work,

dissemination, search for resources and support for investigation. – Named by the organization which participates in

BIUSPP. This may require a small part-time staff.

– Essential good local political relations, access to directories of members of Strategic Planning Advice Groups.

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BIUSPP Proposal.

• Looked for in results: – To validate and to complete -in each case-

theory. – To construct “Competition Allocation

Protocol”.– To construct “Initial Conditions of Working”.– To construct “Interface Decision Tools”.– To construct SD units.

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BIUSPP Proposal.• Motivation and coordination:

– Valencia - Spain. • Valencia Metropolitana.

• Dpt. Quantitative Methods - UV-

• Dpt. Organization Companies-UPV -

• Other

• Execution:– Metrex partners.

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BIUSPP Proposal.

• Cost:– Total: 1.449.000€.

• Timetable: – The objectives will have been obtained within

four years of the real launching date of the project.

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BIUSPP Proposal.Commitment from Metrex partners

– What we have.• Theory + operative nucleus in Valencia.

– That we needed• Written commitment from Metrex to find funding

from Interreg.• Written commitment from Metrex to coordinate the

work.• Commitment participant organizations:

– To name a coordinator.– To sign Agreement.

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• Thank you very much for your attention and interest.

• Thank you very much to METREX for its support and action.

[email protected]

www.valenciametropolitana.org