Biotechnology at OECD

Can Bioscience Underpin Economic Strategies?

Iain Gillespie,Head of Division.

BIOTECHNOLOGY BIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISIONDIVISION

OECD and Biotechnology

• Biotechnology as a microeconomic driver for growth

• Harmonisation of regulatory regimes and provision of positive and stable international business environment

• Biotechnology as a driver for market transition

BIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISIONDIVISION

Which Economic Strategies?

• Health • Sustainability (decoupling growth from

environmental degradation = eco-efficiency)

• Nutrition/ Food Security• Globalisation and trade.• Growth


Health

• Potential of molecular markers to add value to medicines?

• New disease and drug targets?• Interoperability or Tower of Babel? • New business & innovation models?


Model-adjusted Mean Change from Baseline in ADAS-cog by treatment week

ITT population PGx ITT population by APOE4 status*

*Excluding subjects 364, 737 and 1027

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Placebo M 2mgM 4mg M 8mg

Me

an

ch

an

ge

in A

DA

S-c

og

sco

re

Weeks of Treatment

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

E4-, placebo E4+, placeboE4-, M 2mg E4+, M 2mgE4-, M 4mg E4+, M 4mgE4-, M 8mg E4+, M 8mg

Me

an

ch

an

ge

in A

DA

S-c

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Weeks of Treatment

Linear Model

The current approach…..

BIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISION DIVISION

Discovery Development Delivery Diffusion

DEVELOPMENT

IDENTIFICATION of NEED

DIFFUSION

DELIVERY

Research Policy-Guidelines-eghuman subjects, consent, privacy.-Research Ethics Boards

RESEARCH

Industry Policy-Feasibility-Trials-Formulation-IPR

Healthcare Policy-Accessible-Affordable-Cost-effective

Regulatory/LegislativePolicy-Patient safety-Standards-Medical guidelines

Decisions

Match innovation and health needs

Enabling environment?Making Demand and Supply Work Together

COMMERCIALISATION

Industrial

• Decouple growth from pollution?• Platform technologies/ intermediates?

• Leverage infrastructure?• Will subsidies be necessary?


Pollution

(e.g., CO2 , toxic chemicals)

Economic Growth (e.g., employment, GDP)

Conventional technology

Sustainability via the biobased economy

Eco-efficiency &

renewable feedstock


Renewable T-Shirts!


Cargill-Dow (Nebraska)


Market Potential

• Recognise opportunities to realise latent value natural processes.

• Significant economic potential in manufacturing and processing industry (sector provides 17% direct economic value in OECD countries - big pharma another 2-3%).

• But must avoid over-hype and exact estimates missing - need to be generated.


Measuring the Biobased Economy

Country strategies: visions, roadmaps, foresight. Goal setting

Measuring activity: eg investment, jobs, numbers of firms, churning, patents. Definitions, methodology and comparability.

Measuring impact: productivity, sustainability, demand and acceptability. Small impacts so far, pervasive sector.

Measuring cause and effect: Activity or Policy? Do we need to know.


Inputs & Outputs


STAGE METRIC STAGE METRIC

Inputs R&D spend Outputs Sales

Activities No. firms Value VC investments

Employment as % GDP

Patents Alliances

Biotechnology R&DTotal expenditure on biotechnology R&D by biotechnology-active

firms, Million PPP$, 2003

469

699

727

1,194

1,342

1,347

236

205

201

199

95

88

84

67

29

5

251

14,232 7.0

3.3

5.7

12.0

23.8

3.2

8.6

4.9

2.8

3.8

3.1

20.9

2.4

4.2

51.4

2.0

0.6

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

Poland (2004)

Norway

Iceland

South Africa (2002)

Finland

New Zealand (2004)

Spain (2004)

Australia

China (Shanghai)

Italy (2004)

Israel (2002)

Switzerland (2004)

Korea (2004)

Denmark (1)

Canada

France

Germany (2004)

United States

BIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGYDIVISIONDIVISION

13

17

23

3239

41

73

106

116

119

123

148

157172

216

267

278

304

455

490

607640

755

21963154

804

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Poland (2004)

Portugal (5)

Iceland

Norway

Austria (5)

Ireland (5)

Belgium (4)

South Africa (2002) (4)

New Zealand (2004)Netherlands (5)

Finland (4)

Israel (2002)

Switzerland (2004)

Italy (2004)

Sweden

Denmark

Spain (2004)Australia

United Kingdom (5)

Canada

Germany (2004) (4)

Korea (2004) (4)

France

Japan (3,4)

United States

European Union

Core biotech firms (2)

All Biotech active firms

Biotechnology firmsNumber of biotechnology firms, 2003


Biotechnology employmentBiotechnology R&D employees, headcounts 2003

109

283

458

1,053

1146

1,447

1,596

1,984

2,359

2,884

4,143

4193

4,781

6,441

6,554

8,024

9,644

73,520

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

Poland (2004)

Norway (2)

Iceland

Ireland (2)

Finland (2)

China (Shanghai) (4)

Israel (2002)

Belgium

Sweden (2)

Spain (2004)

Switzerland (2004) (2)

France (2)

Denmark (4)

Canada (3)

Korea (2004)

Germany (2004)

United Kingdom (2)

United States (2)


Biotechnology Patents

15. Share of countries in Biotechnology patents1 filed at the EPO

Shares, 2002

Other countries

3.1%

Canada 2.3%Switzerland

1.7%

Israel 1.2%

China 0.8%

Korea 0.9%

Australia1.7%

Germany13.6%

United Kingdom

5.6%

France4.6%

Netherlands2.5%

Denmark 1.7%Sweden

1.6%

Other European countries

4.9%

United States39.9%

European Union34.5%

Japan13.8%

Other countries

11.9%


Sales of Biotechnology firms, Million PPP$. 2003

107

123

332

343

345

485

509

972

1,880

1,889

2,146

3,086

3,838

4,173

5,759

9,886

50,472 10

15

46

92

0 20,000 40,000 60,000

Norway (2,4)

Israel (2002) (1)

Finland (2)

Spain (2004) (2,3)

Switzerland (2,4)

France (2,4)

Germany (2004) (1)

United Kingdom (2,4)

United States (2001) (1)


Total venture capital investments in biotechnology, 2001 to 2003 combined

000111236142329

7498124127159302323

502721769

9,526

0.00.00.00.1

0.2

0.2

0.60.8

1.0

1.01.22.4

0.00.00.00.0

0.0

0.0

2.5

3.95.6

6.0

74.4

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

GreeceSlovak Republic

HungaryPoland

Czech RepublicPortugalIcelandIrelandAustria

SpainItaly

FinlandNorway

SwitzerlandBelgium

NetherlandsDenmark

FranceSweden

United KingdomCanada

GermanyUnited States

Million US dollars


Biotechnology venture capitalBiotechnology venture capital investments as a percentage of GDP,

2003

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.003

0.005

0.005

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.015

0.016

0.022

0.024

0.026

0.031

0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035

Austria

Greece

Hungary

Poland

Slovak Republic

Portugal

Ireland

Spain

Czech Republic

Italy

Netherlands

Belgium

Germany

France

Finland

Switzerland

Sweden

United Kingdom

Norway

Denmark

Canada

United States

Percent GDPBIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY

DIVISIONDIVISION

Number of biotechnology alliances, 1990 to 2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


Where are we?

• Great on visioning. Real signs of success in raising interest/ investment.

• Good measures of input – at national/ regional level. Still limited at sector/ firm level.

• Progress on measuring activity, but needs to distinguish sectors and look at firm level.

• Output measures lagging. Market sluggish and probably inefficient, basically no idea at national/ regional level. Firm level based on market response.


What’s Missing? Would Resources Better be Put Elsewhere?

• Indicators (then measures) for productivity and other economic activity.

• Indicators (then measures) for policy goals (health, sustainability).

• Measures of value and value added (intangible assets).

• Endogenous growth models?


Realising a Bioeconomy

“an economy which captures the latent value in biological processes and renewable bioresources to produce improved health and sustainable

growth and development”. • Building visions for the development of the bioeconomy

• Identifying technical, financial, human capital, regulatory bottlenecks

• Providing as much as possible a quantifiable benefit analysis of the main segments

• Providing a road map of necessary policy choices ahead

IBIOTECHNOLOGYIBIOTECHNOLOGY DIVISIONDIVISION

Biotechnology at OECD

Business

biotechnology biotechnology

sales of biotechnology

biotechnologyactive

growth biotechnologydivision

head of division

placebo e4

direct economic value

measures ofvalueand