Biomass to Power (Analyst Version) · Biomass to Power – The World Market for Biomass Power Plants (Analyst Version) ecoprog GmbH, eco prog 8 Costs and revenues of biomass power
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Biomass to Power (Analyst Version) The World Market for Biomass Power Plants 2014/2015
At the end of 2013, there were approximately 2,8000 active biomass power plants (without co-incinerators)
throughout the world. They had an electricity generation capacity of approximately 42 GWel. We expect these
figures to increase to around 4,100 power plants with a capacity of about 67 GWel by 2023. The worldwide
increasing support of renewable energies and the development of domestic energy sources from existing
waste material, e.g. wood waste or bagasse, are the most important reasons for this growth.
Contents
Biomass to Power – The World Market for Biomass Power Plants (Analyst Version)
ecoprog GmbH, www.ecoprog.com
ecoprog
Preface for the analyst version 13
Preface 14
Management Summary 16
Part 1: Market & Competition 20
1 Current subsidisation systems 21
2 Asset investments 24
2.1 Global asset investments 24
2.2 Europe 26
2.3 Asia 28
2.4 South and Central America 29
2.5 North America 31
2.6 Rest of the world 32
3 Market outlook 33
3.1 Global outlook 33
3.2 Europe 36
3.3 Asia 38
3.4 South and Central America 39
3.5 North America 40
3.6 Rest of the world 41
4 Competition 42
4.1 Operators: competition and market shares 42
4.2 Technolog providers: competition and market shares 44
5 National markets 48
5.1 Middle East and Africa 48
5.2 Asia 50
China 51
India 61
Indonesia 72
Japan 76
Malaysia 83
Philippines 87
Thailand 94
Vietnam 98
Rest of Asia 104
5.3 Australia and Pacific 105
Australia 106
Rest of Australia and Pacific 111
Contents
Biomass to Power – The World Market for Biomass Power Plants (Analyst Version)
ecoprog GmbH, www.ecoprog.com
ecoprog
5.4 Europe 112
Austria 113
Belgium 118
Bulgaria 123
Croatia 127
Czech Republic 131
Denmark 135
Estonia 141
Finland 145
France 152
Germany 159
Hungary 165
Ireland 169
Italy 173
Latvia 181
Lithuania 185
Netherlands 189
Norway 195
Poland 198
Portugal 204
Romania 208
Russia 212
Serbia 216
Slovakia 219
Slovenia 223
Spain 227
Sweden 233
Switzerland 239
Ukraine 244
United Kingdom 248
Rest of Europe 256
5.5 North Amerika 258
Canada 259
USA 265
Rest of North America 275
5.6 South and Central America 276
Brazil 277
Mexico 286
Uruguay 289
Rest of S&C America 293
Part 2: Background 296
6 Differentiation 297
6.1 Type, character and minimum size of the plants 297
6.2 Biomass in the energy business 298
6.3 Fuels 299
6.4 Regional breakdown 302
7 Technology 304
7.1 Delivery and processing of the fuel 304
7.2 Combustion 306
7.3 Energy generation 310
7.4 Flue gas cleaning 310
Contents
Biomass to Power – The World Market for Biomass Power Plants (Analyst Version)
ecoprog GmbH, www.ecoprog.com
ecoprog
8 Costs and revenues of biomass power plants 312
8.1 Investment costs 312
8.2 Current costs 315
8.3 Revenues 317
9 Framework / market factors 320
9.1 Economic viability and biomass potential 320
9.2 Subsidisation of electricity generation from biomass as RE 324
9.3 Extra charges on competing technologies 327
9.4 Other types of political support 330
9.5 Ecological critique of electricity generation from biomass 331
Data origin and methodology 333
Glossary 335
Annex B: Forecast data 336
Annex C: Business register 341
By specialist fields 341
Alphabetically 343
List of figures
Biomass to Power – The World Market for Biomass Power Plants (Analyst Version)
ecoprog GmbH, www.ecoprog.com
ecoprog
Figure 1: Overview of current compensation systems by country 22 Figure 2: BMPPs worldwide 24 Figure 3: Worldwide capacities of electricity generation from biomass 25 Figure 4: Age of plants and electricity generation capacities worldwide 25 Figure 5: Plants and electricity generation capacities in Europe 26 Figure 6: Age of plants and electricity generation capacities in Europe 27 Figure 7: Plants and electricity generation capacities in Asien 28 Figure 8: Age of plants and electricity generation capacities in Asia 29 Figure 9: Plants and electricity generation capacities in South and Central America 30 Figure 10: Age of plants and electricity generation capacities in South and Central America 30 Figure 11: Plants and electricity generation capacities in North America 31 Figure 12: Age of plants and electricity generation capacities in North America 32 Figure 13: Development of number of plants worldwide 33 Figure 14: Development of newly commissioned capacities 34 Figure 15: Total investments 35 Figure 16: Newly constructed capacities and investments by commissioning 2014-2023 35 Figure 17: Forecast of newly commissioned plants in Europe 36 Figure 18: Forecast of newly commissioned capacities in Europe 37 Figure 19: Forecast of newly commissioned plants in Asia 38 Figure 20: Forecast of newly commissioned capacities in Asia 39 Figure 21: Forecast of newly commissioned capacity in South and Central America 40 Figure 22: Forecast of newly commissioned capacity in North America 41 Figure 23: The world’s largest BMPP operators 43 Figure 24: Market shares number of plants and installed capacity 45 Figure 25: Project outlook Middle East and Africa 49 Figure 26: Electricity generation by energy sources in China 51 Figure 27: Fuels in Chinese biomass power plants 53 Figure 28: Locations of plants and projects in China 54 Figure 29: Market forecast China 55 Figure 30: Project outlook China 56 Figure 31: Electricity generation by energy sources in India 61 Figure 32: Development targets for renewable energies in India 62 Figure 33: Locations of plants and projects in Northern India 63 Figure 34: Feed-in tariffs in India 65 Figure 35: Locations of plants and projects in the Punjab and Uttar Pradesh region 66 Figure 36: Capacity of BMPPs with connection to the grid by federal state 66 Figure 37: Market forecast India 67 Figure 38: Locations of plants and projects in South India 68 Figure 39: Project outlook India 69 Figure 40: Electricity generation by energy sources in Indonesia 72 Figure 41: Project outlook Indonesia 73 Figure 42: Market forecast Indonesia 74 Figure 43: Electricity generation by energy sources in Japan 76 Figure 44: Current compensation structure in Japan 77 Figure 45: Biomass projects eligible for feed-in tariff between July 2012 and March 2014 78 Figure 46: Project outlook Japan 79 Figure 47: Market forecast Japan 81 Figure 48: Electricity generation by energy sources in Malaysia 83 Figure 49: Project outlook Malaysia 84 Figure 50: Market forecast Malaysia 85 Figure 51: Electricity generation by energy source in the Philippines 87 Figure 52: Market forecast Philippines 88 Figure 53: Project outlook Philippines 89 Figure 54: Locations of plants and projects in the Philippines 92 Figure 55: Electricity generation by energy sources in Thailand 94 Figure 56: Project outlook Thailand 95 Figure 57: Market forecast Thailand 96 Figure 58: Locations of plants and projects in Thailand 97 Figure 59: Electricity generation by energy sources in Vietnam 99 Figure 60: Project outlook Vietnam 100
List of figures
Biomass to Power – The World Market for Biomass Power Plants (Analyst Version)
ecoprog GmbH, www.ecoprog.com
ecoprog
Figure 61: Locations of plants and projects in Thailand 101 Figure 62: Market forecast Vietnam 102 Figure 63: Project outlook Rest of Asia 105 Figure 64: Electricity generation by energy sources in Australia 106 Figure 65: Project outlook Australia 108 Figure 66: Market forecast Australia 109 Figure 67: Project outlook Rest of Australia and Pacific 111 Figure 68: Electricity generation by energy sources in Austria 113 Figure 69: Feed-in tariffs in Austria 114 Figure 70: Market forecast Austria 115 Figure 71: Locations of plants and projects in Austria 116 Figure 72: Project outlook Austria 117 Figure 73: Electricity generation by energy sources in Belgium 118 Figure 74: Locations of plants and projects in Belgium 119 Figure 75: Market forecast Belgium 121 Figure 76: Project outlook Belgium 121 Figure 77: Electricity generation by energy sources in Bulgaria 123 Figure 78: Subsidisation structure for a BMPP in Bulgaria in 2013/2014 (€ct/kWh) 124 Figure 79: Market forecast Bulgaria 125 Figure 80: Project outlook Bulgarien 125 Figure 81: Electricity generation by energy sources in Croatia 127 Figure 82: Incentive scheme in Croatia 128 Figure 83: Project outlook Croatia 129 Figure 84: Market forecast Croatia 129 Figure 85: Electricity generation by energy sources in Czech Republic 131 Figure 86: Project outlook Czech Republic 133 Figure 87: Market forecast Czech Republic 133 Figure 88: Electricity generation by energy sources in Denmark 135 Figure 89: Locations of plants and projects in Denmark 137 Figure 90: Market forecast Denmark 138 Figure 91: Project outlook Denmark 139 Figure 92: Electricity generation by energy sources in Estonia 141 Figure 93: Market forecast Estonia 142 Figure 94: Project outlook Estonia 143 Figure 95: Electricity generation by energy sources in Finland 145 Figure 96: Locations of plants and projects in Finland 147 Figure 97: Fuel shares of electricity production from biomass 2011 149 Figure 98: Project outlook Finland 150 Figure 99: Market forecast Finland 151 Figure 100: Electricity generation by energy sources in France 152 Figure 101: Tendering systems in France 153 Figure 102: Market forecast France 154 Figure 103: Project outlook France 155 Figure 104: Locations of plants and projects in France 157 Figure 105: Electricity generation by energy sources in Germany 159 Figure 106: Comparison of old and new compensation structure in Germany 160 Figure 107: Locations of plants and projects in Germany 162 Figure 108: Market forecast Germany 163 Figure 109: Project outlook Germany 164 Figure 110: Electricity generation by energy sources in Hungary 165 Figure 111: Feed-in tariffs in Hungary 166 Figure 112: Market forecast Hungary 167 Figure 113: Project outlook Hungary 167 Figure 114: Electricity generation by energy sources in Ireland 169 Figure 115: Market forecast Ireland 171 Figure 116: Project outlook Ireland 171 Figure 117: Electricity generation by energy sources in Italy 173 Figure 118: Subsidisation sytem in Italy from January 2013 on* 174 Figure 119: Market forecast Italy 175 Figure 120: Locations of plants and projects in Italy 176 Figure 121: Project outlook Italy 177
List of figures
Biomass to Power – The World Market for Biomass Power Plants (Analyst Version)
ecoprog GmbH, www.ecoprog.com
ecoprog
Figure 122: Electricity generation by energy sources in Latvia 181 Figure 123: Market forecast Latvia 183 Figure 124: Project outlook Latvia 183 Figure 125: Electricity generation by energy sources in Lithuania 185 Figure 126: Current subsidisation structure in Lithuania 186 Figure 127: Market forecast Lithuania 187 Figure 128: Project outlook Latvia 188 Figure 129: Electricity generation by energy sources in the Netherlands 189 Figure 130: Subsidisation of biomass CHP plants 2014 190 Figure 131: Locations of plants and projects in the Netherlands 192 Figure 132: Project outlook Netherlands 193 Figure 133: Market forecast Netherlands 194 Figure 134: Electricity generation by energy sources in Norway 195 Figure 135: Market forecast Norway 197 Figure 136: Electricity generation by energy sources in Poland 198 Figure 137: Locations of plants and projects in Poland 200 Figure 138: Project outlook Poland 201 Figure 139: Market forecast Poland 202 Figure 140: Electricity generation by energy sources in Portugal 204 Figure 141: Market forecast Portugal 205 Figure 142: Project outlook Portugal 206 Figure 143: Electricity generation by energy sources in Romania 208 Figure 144: Market forecast Romania 210 Figure 145: Project outlook Romania 211 Figure 146: Electricity generation by energy sources in Russia 212 Figure 147: Market forecast Russia 214 Figure 148: Project outlook Russia 215 Figure 149: Electricity generation by energy sources in Serbia 216 Figure 150: Project outlook Serbia 217 Figure 151: Market forecast Serbia 218 Figure 152: Electricity generation by energy sources in der Slovakia 219 Figure 153: Feed-in tariffs in Slovakia 220 Figure 154: Market forecast Slovakia 221 Figure 155: Project outlook Slovakia 221 Figure 156: Electricity generation by energy sources in Slovenia 223 Figure 157: Bonuses in Slovenia 2013 224 Figure 158: Market forecast Slovenia 226 Figure 159: Electricity generation by energy sources in Spain 227 Figure 160: Locations of plants and projects in Spain 229 Figure 161: Project outlook Spain 231 Figure 162: Market forecast Spain 232 Figure 163: Electricity generation by energy sources in Sweden 233 Figure 164: Development of certificate prices in Sweden 234 Figure 165: Market forecast Sweden 235 Figure 166: Project outlook Sweden 236 Figure 167: Locations of plants and projects in Sweden 237 Figure 168: Electricity generation by energy sources in Switzerland 239 Figure 169: Examplary compensation of a BMPP 240 Figure 170: Market forecast Switzerland 241 Figure 171: Project outlook Switzerland 242 Figure 172: Locations of plants and projects in Switzerland 242 Figure 173: Electricity generation by energy sources in der Ukraine 244 Figure 174: Market forecast Ukraine 245 Figure 175: Project outlook Ukraine 247 Figure 176: Electricity generation by energy sources in the UK 248 Figure 177: Locations of plants and projects in the UK 249 Figure 178: Issuing of certificates in the UK 250 Figure 179: Market forecast UK 252 Figure 180: Project outlook UK 253 Figure 181: Electricity generation by energy sources in Canada 259 Figure 182: Renewables Portfolio Standards (RPS) in Canada 260
List of figures
Biomass to Power – The World Market for Biomass Power Plants (Analyst Version)
ecoprog GmbH, www.ecoprog.com
ecoprog
Figure 183: Locations of plants and projects in Canada 261 Figure 184: Location of biomass power plants in Canada 262 Figure 185: Market forecast Canada 263 Figure 186: Project outlook Canada 264 Figure 187: Electricity generation by energy sources in den USA 265 Figure 188: Renewable Portfolio Standards in den USA 267 Figure 189: Market forecast USA 269 Figure 190: Project outlook USA 270 Figure 191: Locations of plants and projects in den USA 273 Figure 192: Electricity generation by energy sources in Brazil 277 Figure 193: Locations of plants and projects in Northern Brazil 278 Figure 194: BMPPs in Brazil by fuel 279 Figure 195: Market forecast Brazil 280 Figure 196: Locations of plants and projects in Southern Brazil 281 Figure 197: Project outlook Brazil 282 Figure 198: Locations of plants and projects in region of Sao Paulo 284 Figure 199: Electricity generation by energy sources in Mexico 286 Figure 200: Market forecast Mexico 287 Figure 201: Project outlook Mexico 288 Figure 202: Electricity generation by energy sources in Uruguay 289 Figure 203: Market forecast Uruguay 290 Figure 204: Project outlook Uruguay 291 Figure 205: Biomass in electricity production 298 Figure 206: Overview of the different biomass fuels 300 Figure 207: Market regions 303 Figure 208: Example of a biomass power plant 305 Figure 209: Example of a grate firing 306 Figure 210: Example of a fluidised bed combustion 307 Figure 211: Example of a pyrolysis process 309 Figure 212: Overview investment costs 314 Figure 213: Examplary calculation of annual current costs of a biomass power plant 316 Figure 214: Examplary calculation of plant revenues 318 Figure 215: Fuels by calorific value and density 320 Figure 216: Forest areas worldwide 321 Figure 217: Use of forests worldwide 322 Figure 218: Cultivated arable land worldwide 323 Figure 219: EU member states targets for the development of electricity generation from biomass 326 Figure 220: Kyoto targets and status of implementation 328 Figure 221: Price development of EU certificate trading 330 Figure 222: Average specific investment costs by market region 334
Extract, chapter 4, national markets, Japan
Biomass to Power – The World Market for Biomass Power Plants 76
ecoprog GmbH, www.ecoprog.com
ecoprog
Japan
Status legislation: September 2014; Status plants and projects: September 2014
Number of BMPPs 27 Installed electrical capacity [MWel] 606
Inhabitants [million] 126 Area [thousand hectare] 37,794
Roundwood, felled [million m³] 18.5 of which forested [%] 66.0
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