Biofuels: how much, how fast and how difficult.sites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/energysite/documents/webpage/... · Biofuels: how much, how fast and how difficult. Prof. José

Biofuels: how much, how fast and how difficult.

Prof. José GoldembergUniversity of São Paulo

São Paulo, Brazil

Land Use for Ethanol (2006)BRAZIL

Ethanol production from sugarcane Agricultural area (million ha)

(billion litres/year)(million bbl/day)

Sugarcane to ethanol

Sugarcane(total)

Production 17.8 0.31 2.9 5

To replace 10% total gasoline consumption* 189

3.3 31 ---

To replace 10% total petroleum consumption* 746

13 123 ---

Sugarcane agricultural area in the world ----

------- 20

UNITED STATES

Ethanol production from corn Agricultural area (million ha)

(billion litres/year) (million bbl/day) Corn to ethanol Corn (total)

Production 18.4 0.32 5.1 29

Corn agricultural area in the world --- --- --- 144

World’s total agricultural area: 1,228 million hectares *World petroleum consumption (2005): 4,478 billion litres/year* World gasoline consumption (2005): 1,292 billion litres/year

ETHANOL DEMAND PROJECTIONS1st Generation Technology

--2179.52022

??Gallon (billion)

Liters(billion)

European UnionBrazilUS

2nd Generation Technology

3.915------2020e

-----1556.8132015

--9.5364.9---2012/13

--4.717.82.9d4.918.65.1c2006

Gallons (billion)

Liters (billion)

Gallons (billions)

Liters (billion)

Area million/ha

Gallons (billion)

Liters (billion)

Area usedmillion/ha

European Union[i]Sugarcane (Brazil)b

Maize (US)a

a.productivity in 2006: 3,647 l/ha cornb.productivity in 2006: 6,138 l/ha sugarcanec.18% of total maize area in the US; 3.2% of total maize area in the world.d.13% of total sugarcane area in the world; 47% of the sugarcane area in

Brazil.a.present EU production 2 billion liters/year mainly from sugarbeets.

[i] Biofuels Research Advisory Council, 2006. Biofuels in the European Union – A vision for 2030 and beyond. — 40 pp. — 29.7 x 21.0 cm. ISBN 92-79-01748-9. ISSN 1018-5593 (EUR series – Luxemburg). Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/pdf/biofuels_vision_2030_en.pdf

Comparison of the Production Costs of Ethanol in Brazil, United States and Germany (HENNIGES and ZEDDIES, 2004).

14,4852,3748,1724,8

3Net Production Cost

7,93Government subsidies

7,206,806,71Sale of byproducts

14,4859,5754,9739,4

7Total Production Cost

2,3215,9318,6811,3

1Other operation costs

9,8035,1027,7520,9

3Feedstock

0,481,021,020,61Insurance, taxes and other costs

0,521,401,402,83Labor

1,155,305,303,40Equipment

0,210,820,820,39Buildings

Brazil

Cane

Germany Beets

Germany Wheat

USACorn

Cost in €/1000 liters

Energy balance of alcohol production from different feedstocks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Sugarcane Sugar beet Wheat straw Corn Wood

ethanol feedstock

ener

gy o

utpu

t/inp

ut ra

tio

(from

foss

il fu

els)

Map of Brazil locating sugarcane cultures

Amazon Forest

Sugarcane cultures

Pantanal grasslands Atlantic Rainforest

8

Introduction - The Brazilian Alcohol Program

• The world largest commercial program on biomass• Started in 1975 by Federal Government • Decision from Brazilian Federal Government to produce

ethanol in addition to sugar (from sugarcane): objective of reducing petroleum imports (Gulf War).

• High-octane fuel in vehicles, replacing lead and/or MTBE.

• 1,300,000 cars running on pure (hydrated) ethanol in Brazil

• 2,300,000 flex-fuel vehicles (both ethanol and gasoline, any blend)

• all gasoline blended with (anhydrous) ethanol: 20 to 26% of ethanol in volume basis – gasohol

• Nowadays - economically competitive to gasoline

The Economic Competitiveness of Alcohol Fuel Compared to Gasoline

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

Ethanol Cumulative Production (thousand m3 )

pric

e pa

id to

eth

anol

pro

duce

rs;

gaso

line

pric

es (2

004)

US$

/ m

3

Ethanol prices in Brazil Rotterdam regular gasoline price BR regular gasoline price

2000

1990

1980

1980

1990

2000 20052005

2000

2004

1990

1980

Industrial Yield – Brazil(in liters of hydrous alcohol equivalent per hectare)

15002000250030003500400045005000550060006500

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Fonte: Datagro

+3.77% per year in 29 years

5917

2024

Energy Contained in 1,000 tons of Sugar Cane

(in tons of oil equivalent )

51.11

55.05 56.43

Sucrose Bagasse Tops and Leaves

Fonte: Nastari, Lisbon, 2000

Hemicellulose25%

Cellulose46%

Others8%

Lignine21%

Composition of sugarcane bagasse

Sales of Flex Fuel cars in automobiles in Brazil

84%

27%

29%34%

40%

59%

66%

67% 69%73%

77%78%

77%

76% 77% 77%80%

80%

50%52%

71%77%

81%

82% 83% 84%

83%

82%86%

88%

88%

86%

86%

12,4%

18,2%19,0%19,0%

18,3% 17,9%

21,9%

25,2%23,9%

27,0%

27,7%

32,2%35,7%

41,4%43,4%

52,6%

59,1%64,5%

66,0%

15,6% 14,1%

13,3%

19,3%

15,6% 13,1%

12,7%

13,0%

13,8%

18,1% 9,9%

8%

9%

10%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%ja

n/05 mar

mai

o

julh

o

set

nov

jan/

06 mar

mai

o

julh

o

set

nov

jan/

07 mar mai jul

set

Flex Fuel Gasolina

Land Use – Brazil (2006)

Main crops hectares

Wheat 1,558,241 2.4%

Cassava 1,901,561 3.0%

Coffee 2,325,261 3.6%

Rice 2,974,596 4.6%

Beans 4,016,797 6.2%

Sugar cane 6,152,929 9.6%

Maize 12,602,652 19.6%

Soybeans 22,006,677 34.2%

Other crops 10,786,303 16.8%

Total 64,325,017 100.0%

Source: faostat.fao.org

Land Use – United States (2006)Main crops hectares

Rice 1,142,000 1.0%Barley 1,194,240 1.0%Sorghum 1,998,000 1.7%Maize (for forage and silage) 2,395,760 2.0%Seed cotton 5,187,000 4.4%Cotton lint 5,586,000 4.7%Cottonseed 5,586,000 4.7%Alfalfa for forage and silage 9,067,890 7.6%Wheat 20,280,480 17.0%Maize 28,590,000 24.0%Soybeans 28,983,680 24.4%Other crops 8,957,325 7.5%Total 118,968,375 100.0%Source: faostat.fao.org

Land Use – World (2006)Main Crops hectares

Sugar cane 20,398,731 1.5%Groundnuts 22,231,685 1.7%Sunflower seed 23,700,249 1.8%Bean 26,540,002 2.0%Rapeseed 27,796,428 2.1%Millet 32,845,741 2.5%Seed cotton 34,732,705 2.6%Cotton lint 35,021,144 2.6%Cottonseed 35,291,977 2.6%Sorghum 41,500,111 3.1%Barley 55,516,996 4.1%Soybeans 92,988,859 6.9%Maize 144,376,477 10.8%Rice 154,323,697 11.5%Wheat 216,100,018 16.1%Other crops 375,478,442 28.0%Total 1,338,843,261 100.0%

Source: faostat.fao.org