Bioenergy: Large-Scale Production and Climate Change Implications Jerome Weingart and Judy Siegel Energy and Security Group Reston, Virginia (USA) International.

Bioenergy: Large-Scale Production and Climate Change Implications

Jerome Weingart and Judy SiegelEnergy and Security Group

Reston, Virginia (USA)

International Conference on Sustainable Bioenergy

Bonn, Germany October 12-13, 2006

Focus of presentation• Principal climate impact areas: large-scale

biomass production and use for energy • Research and analysis necessary to

understand these impacts• Case example: potential of liquid biofuels

to offset GHG emissions in the road transport sector of developing Asia (excludes Japan, S. Korea, Singapore).

Constraints: Biofuels Production and Use• Environmental impacts (land conversion)

– Tropical forest replacement by monocrops– Deforestation– Diminished ecological diversity and resilience;

destruction of wildlife habitat– Nutrient leaching– Pollution from chemicals– Loss of watersheds– Soil erosion, mud slides, and forest fires

• Need to protect soil productivity, water quality, and other ecosystem services (WRI)

Constraints: Biofuels Production and Use

• Potential competition for food production

• Availability of suitable land

Land required for long-term global biofuels feedstock production (10% substitution) *

* IEA (2004) Automotive Fuels for the Future (pp 75-76)

Biofuel 107 ha % world cropland

Ethanol

(cellulose)

15 10 %

Ethanol

(sugar beet)

16 11 %

Ethanol

(sugar beet)

6 4 %

Biodiesel 17 12 %

Biofuels from field to wheels: monocropping, diversity reduction, and destruction of habitat

Oil palm plantation

Climate Change Issues

• Climate system impacts through altered land use and massive cultivation (including water use)– Altered surface roughness

– Altered evapotranspiration rates

– Altered surface albedo

– Nitrogen oxides & methane from agriculture

• (others) For panel discussion today

Biofuels Climate Benefits

• GHG emissions displacement

• Improved air quality (tailpipe emissions reductions)

• Reclamation of degraded land (e.g. via Jatropha)

• Reduction of sand storms and atmospheric dust

• Slowing of desertification (eventual reversal?)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Asia Vehicle Transport Sector *

Scenarios for market penetration of low-GHG biofuels

J. Weingart (2006). Analysis for the Asian Development Bank

Global GHG Emissions from Energy

* World Resources Institute (2005). Navigating the Numbers

Global GHG Emissions from Transport

* World Resources Institute (2005). Navigating the Numbers

Road fuels global production in 2005

Fuel Production (billion liters/year)

Crude oil 4,705

Gasoline (road sector) IEA model 1,289

Diesel (road sector) IEA model 668

Bioethanol (1.7% energy basis) 33

Biodiesel (0.5% energy basis) 4

World-wide demand for liquid fuels for road transport (IEA/SMP) 2000 - 2050

ChinaIndiaOther Asia

OECD North America

OECD EuropeOECD Pacific

Rest of World

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

MM

toe

/ye

ar

Liquid Fuels for Transport in Asia: IEA Base Case Scenario (IEA-SMP transport model)

0100200

300400500600700

800900

1,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

MM

TO

E p

er y

ear

Other Asia

India

China

IEA/SMP = International Energy Agency / Sustainable Mobility Project

Vehicle Ownership Rate Estimates for China and India

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Veh

icle

s p

er 1

,000

peo

ple

China

India

China – from this, to …

this, and to …

This!

The future (?): 6-fold GHG emissions growth from Asia road transport

MMT CO2-e per year for China, India, and emerging Asia road transport fuels

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MM

T C

O2

-e/y

ea

r

Gasoline

Diesel

* Reference case (from IEA/SMP model)

Why are we interested in biofuels for the Asian road transport sector?

• Potentially competitive with petrofuels• Indigenous, can offset imported petroleum • Significant reduction in tailpipe emissions • Potential for major reduction (80 – 95%) in

net unit life-cycle GHG emissions compared with petrofuels, and

• Potential for large-scale sustainable production (perhaps)

What is a scenario?

• A scenario is like a screen play for the future.

• A scenario is NOT a prediction; it asks “what if”, using rules that reflect real world market dynamics and constraints

What is a market penetration scenario?

• Model of a possible future • Analytic – logistic penetration model for

increasing market share of an “intruder” into an “incumbent” market (“S”-shaped curve)

• Permits specification of key parameters to assess impacts of alternative penetration rates and ultimate market fraction for new options

Stages of market penetration

Logistic Penetration (1% to 50% in 20 years)

-0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Year

Fra

cti

on

of

ma

rke

t p

en

etr

ati

on Maturation

Market dynamism

Expansion

Prototype

Pioneering

Illustrative phases of market development

Takeoff

Two illustrative scenarios: biofuels penetration of road fuel markets in Asia

• 10% to 90% penetration in 50 years

• Logistic (“S”-shaped) penetration

• “Extreme” biofuels market penetration S1– Potential market = 50% road fuels– 75% lower associated GHG emissions

• “Ultimate” biofuels market penetration S2– Potential market = 100% road fuels– 90% lower associated GHG emissions

25

GHG Emissions Impacts of BiofuelsField-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions

from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

Ethanolfrom grains,

US/EU

Ethanolfrom sugarbeets, EU

Ethanolfrom sugar

cane, Brazil

Ethanolfrom

cellulosicfeedstocks

Biodieselfrom

rapeseed,EU

Source: L. Fulton (2004), IEA (currently at UNEP Nairobi)

Asia road transport GHG emissions with and without accelerated biofuels penetration S1

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Year

MM

T C

O2-e

/yea

rPetroleum fuels With biofuels

Business as usual GHG emissions

Biofuels and reduced GHG emissions

Asia road transport GHG emissions with and without extreme biofuels penetration S2

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Year

MM

T C

O2

-e/y

ea

rBase case 100% petro fuels Aggressive penetration low GHG biofuels

Business as usual GHG emissions

High biofuels penetration GHG emissions

How to maximize biofuels offsets of GHG emissions

• Reduce growth in transport fuel demand

• Increased end use efficiency is much less expensive than expanding supply

• This is the “golden rule” for renewables

Potential next steps

• Consistent life-cycle analysis for large-scale bio-ethanol and biodiesel production/use (“platform” for climate impact analysis and assessment)

• Collaboration among national biofuels working groups using compatible LCA and environmental impact methodologies

• Establishment of biofuels collaboratives for collaboration, coordination, technical assistance, and knowledge management

New Bioenergy Center (Washington, DC)

• International NGO Renew the Earth has established a bioenergy center

• Purposes include– Bioenergy information clearinghouse– Analysis of alternative bioenergy options– Assessment of bioenergy sustainability

requirements and opportunities

For more information:

Judy [email protected]

Jerome [email protected]