BioEnergy and BioChemicals Development and the Potential Role of Forests An Opportunity for Minnesota.

BioEnergy and BioEnergy and BioChemicals Development BioChemicals Development

and the and the Potential Role of ForestsPotential Role of Forests

An Opportunity for An Opportunity for MinnesotaMinnesota

BioEnergy and BioChemicals BioEnergy and BioChemicals Development and the Development and the

Potential Role of ForestsPotential Role of Forests

• Current energy trends.

• Bio-energy as an alternative to fossil fuels.

• Minnesota’s bio-energy potential.• Bio-energy in an integrated bio-economy.• Public policy considerations in bio-energy/ bio-chemicals development.

  Current Energy Current Energy TrendsTrends

U.S. energy U.S. energy consumption and consumption and

imports are rising.imports are rising.

US Energy Production, Consumption, US Energy Production, Consumption, and Imports, 1960 - 2030 and Imports, 1960 - 2030

(Quadrillion Btu)(Quadrillion Btu)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, 2006.

Consumption

Production

Net Imports

30%

32%

U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 1970-2030and Imports, 1970-2030

(million barrels per day)(million barrels per day)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2006.

Production

Consumption

Net imports60%72%

U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030and Net Imports, 1960-2030

(trillion cubic feet)(trillion cubic feet)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

16%

21%Net ImportsConsumption

Production

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, 2006.

U.S. Trade Deficit, Energy Products, U.S. Trade Deficit, Energy Products, 1974 - 20061974 - 2006

050

100150200250300350400

Billion

Dollars

Year

Source: USDOE, Energy Information Administration, 2006.

Global energy Global energy consumption is consumption is

increasing rapidly.increasing rapidly.

World Energy Consumption, World Energy Consumption, 1970-20301970-2030

207243

284 309347 366 400

722665

613563

510446

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Qu

adr

illio

n B

tu

History Projections

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA 2006.

China Petroleum Net Imports, China Petroleum Net Imports, 1993-20301993-2030

Barrels/Day

Year Average Daily Imports

1990 Net exporter

1995 240,000

2006 (est.) 3,600,000

2030 (est.) 10,900,000Source: Energy Information Administration, 2006 and Congressional Budget Office, 2006.

Peak production of Peak production of petroleum globally is petroleum globally is

within sight.within sight.

World Petroleum Consumption World Petroleum Consumption 1800 - 21001800 - 2100

Consensus is Emerging that Peak Consensus is Emerging that Peak Petroleum Production in in SightPetroleum Production in in Sight

OECD International Energy Agency2010-2020

World Resources Institute 2007-2014

J. Edwards, Colo. School of Mines 2020

U.S. Department of Energy 2037

Different Interpretations of a Hypothetical 6,000 Billion Barrel World Original Oil-in-Place Resource Base

Bio-Energy as an Bio-Energy as an Alternative to Fossil Alternative to Fossil

FuelsFuels

Plants

Energy

CO2

COCO22OO22

SugarSugarss

No net CONo net CO22 produced in the cycle. produced in the cycle.

Bio-Fuels Are Environmentally Bio-Fuels Are Environmentally AttractiveAttractive

There are also a number of There are also a number of potential sources of bio-potential sources of bio-

energy.energy.

Forms of Bio-Energy ResourcesForms of Bio-Energy Resources

• Wood• Pulping liquor• Municipal solid waste• Organic materials in

wastewater• Landfill gas• Biomass

Potential Sources of Biomass Potential Sources of Biomass EnergyEnergy

• Energy crops• Agricultural crop

residues• Forest biomass

– Logging residues– Thinnings

• Corn (ethanol)

Potential supplies of biomass Potential supplies of biomass are much greater than those are much greater than those

now used for energy now used for energy generation.generation.

A recent report from the U.S. A recent report from the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Departments of Agriculture and

Energy suggests the annual Energy suggests the annual availability of over 1.3 billion dry availability of over 1.3 billion dry

tons of biomass in the United tons of biomass in the United States.States.

Source: Perlack et al. (2005).

Estimated Potential Biomass by Source – United States

Form of Biomass

Estimated Volume Available Annually

(million dry tons)

Energy crops 377

Crop residues 428

Woody biomass 368

Total 1,173

Source: Perlack et al. (2005).

There are a number of There are a number of options for utilizing options for utilizing

biomass as an energy biomass as an energy source.source.

BioMass Derived FuelsBioMass Derived Fuels• Ethanol• Biodiesel• Synthesis gas (syngas)• Replacement for fossil

fuels in electricity generation

• Pelletized fuels• Source of steam

generation for district heating

• Hydrogen

Minnesota’s Minnesota’s Bio-Energy Bio-Energy

PotentialPotential

Renewable Energy Produced in Renewable Energy Produced in Minnesota in 2005Minnesota in 2005

(values in billion Btu equivalents)(values in billion Btu equivalents)

Biomass

Wind

Garbage

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Landfill Gas

Hydropower

Pulping Liquor

Firewood

EthanolHydropower

Firew

oo

dB

iod

ies

el

Derived from Jordan and Taff (2005), and for firewood from Mouelle et. al. (2003).

Profile of Renewable Electricity Profile of Renewable Electricity Production in Minnesota, 2005Production in Minnesota, 2005

Hydro

Wind

RDF

Biomass

Other

Non-renewable

Renewable

Source: Minnesota Department of Commerce (2005).

Non-renewables – 50,100,000 MWh

Renewables - 6,200,000 MWh

56,300,000 MWh

Minnesota has significant opportunity for further

development of bio-energy.

Biomass Resources in Minnesota by Three Studies

Source of Biomass

Biomass in Resources from ORNL database (tons/year

at < $50/ton)

Biomass

Resources from NREL GIS Group (tons/year)

Biomass Resource from 1997

ILSR Inventory

(tons/year)

Average of All Biomass Resource

Data (tons/year)

Forest residue

874,900 - - 874,900

Mill residue 1,121,000 1,017,688 571,960 903,549

Agricultural residue

11,935,896

40,709,527

22,040,438

24,895,287

Energy crops

5,783,002 - - 5,783,002

Urban wood waste

1,532,529

-

-

1,532,529

Total 21,247,327 41,727,215 22,612,398 33,989,267

Source: NREL (2005)

  Ethanol Production Ethanol Production PotentialPotential

Ethanol Production in the United States, 1980-2006

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Source: Renewable Fuels Association (2006). (2006 est.)

The corn ethanol industry in the U.S. reached a

production capacity of over 6 billion gallons annually in

2006.

Potential annual production Potential annual production of ethanol in the U.S. is of ethanol in the U.S. is estimated at 50 billion estimated at 50 billion gallons.gallons. To put this in perspective, gasoline consumption in the U.S. in 2006 was 140 billion gallons.

Geographic Location of U.S. Ethanol Production Facilities, 2006

Source: Renewable Fuels Association, 2007.(http://www.ethanolrfa.org/objects/documents/plantmap_040307.pdf)

Ethanol Production and Ethanol Production and Consumption in Minnesota Consumption in Minnesota

1990-20061990-2006

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Production

Consumption

Source: Minnesota Department of Commerce (2007).

Geographic Location of U.S. Biodiesel Production Facilities,

2006

Source: National Biodiesel Board, 2007.(http://www.biodiesel.org/buyingbiodiesel/producers_marketers/

ProducersMap-Existing.pdf)

Ethanol Production Potential from Minnesota Biomass, Based on ONRL 1999 Study* and NREL Near-Term Conversion

Factors

Resource

Quantity Available @(000 dry tons/year)

Ethanol Potential (million gallons)

<$30/t <$40/t <$50/t

<$30/t <$40/t <$50/t

Forest residues 468 682 875

31 45 58

Mill residues (wd) 71 916 1,121

3 42 51

Ag. residues 0 11,936 11,936

0 597 597

Energy crop pot. 0 427 5,783

0 26 347

Urban wd waste 1533 1,533 1,533

70 70 70

Total 2917 15,494 21,348

104 779 1,122

Walsh et al. 1999.

Ethanol Production Potential from Minnesota Biomass, Based on ONRL 1999 Study* and NREL Near-Term Conversion

Factors

Resource

Quantity Available @(000 dry tons/year)

Ethanol Potential (million gallons)

<$30/t <$40/t <$50/t

<$30/t <$40/t <$50/t

Forest residues 468 682 875

31 45 58

Mill residues (wd) 71 916 1,121

3 42 51

Ag. residues 0 11,936 11,936

0 597 597

Energy crop pot. 0 427 5,783

0 26 347

Urban wd waste 1533 1,533 1,533

70 70 70

Total 2917 15,494 21,348

104 779 1,122

Walsh et al. 1999.

In 2006, Minnesota produced 550 million gallons of ethanol from corn. Production nationwide was 6.0 billion gallons.

Ethanol Production Potential from Minnesota Biomass, Based on ONRL 1999 Study* and NREL Near-Term Conversion

Factors

Resource

Quantity Available @(000 dry tons/year)

Ethanol Potential (million gallons)

<$30/t <$40/t <$50/t

<$30/t <$40/t <$50/t

Forest residues 468 682 875

31 45 58

Mill residues (wd) 71 916 1,121

3 42 51

Ag. residues 0 11,936 11,936

0 597 597

Energy crop pot. 0 427 5,783

0 26 347

Urban wd waste 1533 1,533 1,533

70 70 70

Total 2917 15,494 21,348

104 779 1,122

Walsh et al. 1999.

To put these numbers in perspective, gasoline consumption in Minnesota in 2006 was 2.7 billion gallons.

Energy Required to Deliver 1,000,000 Btu to a Vehicle Fuel Tank

Fuel

Total Energy Required (Btu)

Fossil Energy Required

(Btu)

Gasoline 1,241,000 1,241,000

Ethanol (corn-starch)

1,587,000 600,000

Source: Oregon Department of Energy, 2005. (http://egov.oregon.gov/ENERGY/RENEW/Biomass/forum.shtml)

Energy Required to Deliver 1,000,000 Btu to a Vehicle Fuel Tank

Fuel

Total Energy Required (Btu)

Fossil Energy Required

(Btu)

Gasoline 1,241,000 1,241,000

Ethanol (corn-starch)

1,587,000 600,000

Ethanol (corn cellulose)

1,250,000 230,000

Source: Oregon Department of Energy, 2005. (http://egov.oregon.gov/ENERGY/RENEW/Biomass/forum.shtml)

Energy Required to Deliver 1,000,000 Btu to a Vehicle Fuel Tank

Fuel

Total Energy Required (Btu)

Fossil Energy Required

(Btu)

Gasoline 1,241,000 1,241,000

Ethanol (corn-starch)

1,587,000 600,000

Ethanol (corn cellulose)

1,250,000 230,000

Ethanol (wood) 2,600,000 10,000

Source: Oregon Department of Energy, 2005. (http://egov.oregon.gov/ENERGY/RENEW/Biomass/forum.shtml)

  Electric Generating Electric Generating PotentialPotential

Power Potential from Minnesota Biomass

Source of Biomass

Average of All

Biomass Resource Data from Table 1 (tons/year)

Power Potential

from the Use of Direct-Fired

Biomass Power Plants (aMW)

Power Potential from the Use of

Integrated Gasification/Combin

ed Cycle Power Plants (aMW)

Forest residue

874,900 176 220

Mill residue 903,549 182 227

Agricultural residue

24,895,287

5,009

6,252

Energy crops

5,783,002 1,164 1,452

Urban wood waste

1,532,529

308

385

Total 33,989,267 6,389 8,536

Source: NREL (2005)

To put these numbers in perspective, Minnesota electricity capacity in 2005 was 56,300,000 MWh

Potential Power Obtainable from Minnesota’s Plant-Based Bio-Resources,

Based on ONRL 1999 Study and NREL Conversion Factors

Resource

Quantity Available @(000 dry tons/year)

Electric Potential (aMW)

<$30/t <$40/t <$50/t

<$30/t<$40/t <$50/t

Forest residues 468 682 875

94 137 176

Mill residues (wd) 71 916 1,121

12 149 182

Ag. residues 0 11,936 11,936

0 2,401 2,401

Energy crop pot. 0 427 5,783

0 86 1,164

Urban wd waste 1533 1,533 1,533

308 308 308

Total 2917 15,494 21,348

414 3,081 4,231

Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2004.

Bio-Energy in an Bio-Energy in an Integrated Integrated Bio-Economy Bio-Economy

A singular focus on bio-A singular focus on bio-energy might be a energy might be a

mistake.mistake.

A Myriad of Chemicals are Derived from Petroleum

Other

kerosene

lubricants

feedstocks

asphalt/road oil

petroleum coke

still gas

liquified gases

residual fuel oil

jet fuel

distillate fuel oil

gasoline

Source: API. Totals more than 44 gals. Because of “processing gain.”

What is in a barrel of oil?

19.5 gal.

9.2 gal.

4.1 gal.

2.3 gal.1.9 gal.1.9 gal.1.8 gal.

0.3 gal.

0.2 gal.

0.5 gal.

1.2 gal.

1.3 gal.

Chemical and Material Demand 10% from Renewable Resources by 2020 ~$400 billion/year in products (2 times current Forest Products)

US DOE Technology Roadmap for Plant/Crop based Renewable Resources 2020, Renewable Vision, February 1999 www.oit.doe.gov/agriculture/

Bio-economy – the Future is Now

A Vision of the BioEconomy in the Year 2020

Biorefinery: Cluster of biobased industries producing chemicals, fuels, power, products, and materials.

Source: NREL

O2

CO2

BL Recovery Power Boiler

Paper Manufacture

Black liquor, residuals

90 x 106 mt CO2

Purchased Energy (30% of energy needs - $2.0 billion)

Pulpmill Energy, Steam,

Chemicals

Energy, Steam,

Chemicals

Current Current Chemical Paper Chemical Paper

MillMill

O2

CO2

Black liquor, residuals

66 x 104 mt CO2 Power export ($3.8 billion)

Biorefinery

Pulp ($5.5 billion)

The Forest The Forest BiorefineryBiorefinery

- Extract Hemicelluloses

- New products, chemicals, polymers ($3.3 billion)

-Black liquor gasifier

- Wood residual gasifier

- Combined cycle system

- Process to mfg. liquid fuels and chemicals

or

Liquid Fuels/ Chemicals ($5.5 billion)

Syngas

Paper mfg.

An Integrated Bio-Economy Has Many Facets

Raw Material Options

- Trees - Grasses - Agricultural Crops - Agricultural Residues - Animal Wastes - Municipal Solid Waste

Technologies- Acid/enzymatic hydrolysis- Fermentation- Bioconversion- Chemical Conversion- Composite products technologies- Gasification- Combustion- Co-firing S

ourc

e:

Adapte

d F

rom

Iow

a In

dust

ries

of

the F

utu

re,

20

04.

End-UsesProducts– Plastics– Functional Monomers– Solvents– Chemical Intermediates– Phenolics– Adhesives– Hydraulic Fluids– Fatty acids– Carbon black– Paints– Dyes, Pigments, and Ink– Detergents– Paper– Horticultural products – Fiber boards– Solvents– Plastic filler– Abrasives– Building productsFuelPower

These products will be made from a variety of biochemicals

and biofeedstocks arising from biorefineries.

  SummarySummary

Questions?Questions?

For more information:For more information:www.dovetailinc.orgwww.dovetailinc.org