Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands Aidan Keane University College London, Institute of Zoology & International Livestock Research Institute 16 August 2011
Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Jan 16, 2015
Presented by Aidan Keane, ILRI, Nairobi, 16 August 2011
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Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points
in African drylands
Aidan Keane
University College London, Institute of Zoology & International Livestock Research Institute
16 August 2011
Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Background• Rangelands as complex socio-economic
systems• Policy, institutional and economic
pressures…• …favouring privatisation• …and/or devolution of resource
management• Concern about enclosure, loss of mobility,
land degradation, poverty and biodiversity loss
• Potential existence of tipping points
Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Objectives• To develop a conceptual framework
linking policy, land-use and livelihoods through pastoralist decision-making
• To construct and validate models of pastoralist decision-making
• To evaluate policy relevant scenarios• To disseminate our findings to policy
makers and communities
Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Homewood et al. (2009) “Staying Maasai”
Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Homewood et al. (2009) “Staying Maasai”
• Southern Kenya/northern Tanzania
• Northern Kenya/southern Ethiopia
• Initial focus on the Maasai Mara
Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Methods• Statistical analysis of existing datasets• Modelling of household decision-making• Utility maximisation• Stochastic dynamic programming• Strategic interaction
• Experimental tests of decision models?• Agent-based simulation modelling for
scenario exploration (e.g., payments for ecosystem services, climate change)
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