Bill Coleman Founder, Chairman & CEO Cassatt Corporation
Dec 23, 2015
Bill ColemanFounder, Chairman & CEO
Cassatt Corporation
Inflection Points in Human History
1. The Invention of Language
2. The Invention of the Printing Press
3. The Invention of the Web
… and we are at the Inflection Point of the Web right now!
The Cycles of Innovation Model“Predicting the future is pointless, but it is
possible to identify trends that have significant effects.”
Peter Drucker
Cycles are thirty years long, one starts every 10 years
Cycles include three ten year phases:1) Invention, Boom and Bust2) Buildout and Consolidation3) Commoditization
• Information age includes six cycles 1960 - 2040• Cycles 1 – 3: The Cloud Platform• Cycles 4 – 6: The Web Platform• Cycle 4 is the Inflection Point 1990 – 2020 RIGHT
NOW!
The Six Cycles of InnovationThe Six Cycles of Innovation
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
The Six Cycles of InnovationThe Six Cycles of Innovation
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Semiconductors
Semiconductors
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
The Six Cycles of InnovationThe Six Cycles of Innovation
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Semiconductors
• Manufacturing
Equipment
• Chip design &
test tools
______________
• Semiconductor Companies
Semiconductors
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
The Six Cycles of InnovationThe Six Cycles of Innovation
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Semiconductors
• Manufacturing
Equipment
• Chip design &
test tools
______________
• Semiconductor Companies
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductors
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
The Six Cycles of InnovationThe Six Cycles of Innovation
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers Networks
Semiconductors
• Manufacturing
Equipment
• Chip design &
test tools
______________
• Semiconductor Companies
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductors
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
The Six Cycles of InnovationThe Six Cycles of Innovation
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks
Semiconductors
• Manufacturing
Equipment
• Chip design &
test tools
______________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets
• MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________• Computer HW & SW Companies
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductors
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer Systems and Software
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
The Six Cycles of InnovationThe Six Cycles of Innovation
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking Companies
Semiconductors
• Manufacturing
Equipment
• Chip design &
test tools
______________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets
• MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks• Client/Serve
Applications
• Dist Storage:
SAN & NAS
______________
• Networking Companies
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductors
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer Systems and Software
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking and Storage Systems and Software
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
The Six Cycles of InnovationThe Six Cycles of Innovation
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking Companies
Semiconductors
• Manufacturing
Equipment
• Chip design &
test tools
______________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets
• MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks• Client/Serve
Applications
• Dist Storage:
SAN & NAS
______________
• Networking Companies
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductors
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer Systems and Software
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking and Storage Systems and Software
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
The Inflection Point!
The Inflection Point!
The Inflection PointCycle 3: The network, the last piece falls in
placeThe Platform shifts from the desktop to the network!The basis of the Cloud Platform
Cycle 4: The Internet and the Inflection PointThe final end! Everyone and everything is connected!Final Evolution of The Cloud!Emergence of The Web!
The Cloud: The IT Platform Utility Rules of a Platform: Think of Apple versus Microsoft
Commoditization of IT Switching Cost = 10X value improvementCustomization makes long tail possible
Rules of a Utility: Think if the Electric UtilityIsolation of supply & demand: Scale, Choice, Competitive
pricing (Isolation of ISO Level 7 from 1 – 6)Meter on the customer based on quantity and quality of serviceCustomer owns their IP & controls its usage (Software &
Policy)
Self-configuring, Self-optimizing & Self-healing
Evolution of The CloudCloud 1.0: 2000 – 2010, PaaS, IaaS, SaaS
Greenfield, External, ProprietaryNeither a Platform or a UtilityE.g.. Amazon, Salesforce.com, Google
Cloud 2.0: 2010 – 2020, Cloud 1.0 plus Quadruple Conversion and Consumerization of ITCaaS: Client as a service, online and mobile worlds converge Internal Cloud: First IT Platform (E.g. Cassatt, first Cloud
Platform)External Cloud Extends: Connectivity of Apps and Mobility of
DataA Platform but not a Utility!
Cloud 3:0: 2020 - 2030, The Cloud Utility PlatformThe end of IT as we know it – Everything As A Service!The choice, control and ownership
Emergence of The WebThe world of everybody and everything!
The Internet has three properties that create value: 1) Free reach2) Straight-thru-processing3) Transparency
Evolution of the Web, Cycles 4 – 6:1) Cycle 4: Web 2.0 - Free Reach (1990 - 2020) Social Networking
2) Cycle 5: Web 3.0 - Straight-thru processing (2000 -2030) Pull Economy
3) Cycle 6: Web 4.0 - Transparency (2010 - 2040) The Cyber-Aware Proxy
Cycle 4: Web 2.0 Social NetworkingCycle 4: Web 2.0 Social Networking
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking Companies
Reach• WWW
• Distributed Apps
• Ecommerce
___________
• Internet Applications & Business Models
Straight –Thru-Processing
Transparency
Semiconductors
• Manufacturing
Equipment
• Chip design &
test tools
______________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets
• MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks• Client/Serve
Applications
• Dist Storage:
SAN & NAS
______________
• Networking Companies
Reach• Broadband• Search, SaaS• Web 2.0 - Social Networking - Dist Co-Creation
___________ Application & Infrastructure Software
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductors
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer Systems and Software
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking and Storage Systems and Software
Reach• WWW• Distributed Apps
• Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant
____________• Internet Applications & Business Models
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
Cycle 5: The Internet EconomyCycle 5: The Internet Economy
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking Companies
Reach• WWW
• Distributed Apps
• Ecommerce
___________
• Internet Applications & Business Models
Straight –Thru-Processing• WOA/Mashups• Identity 1.0• Cloud 1.0 ___________• Web 3.0 Apps and “Pull” business models
Transparency
Semiconductors
• Manufacturing
Equipment
• Chip design &
test tools
______________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets
• MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks• Client/Serve
Applications
• Dist Storage:
SAN & NAS
______________
• Networking Companies
Reach• Broadband• Search, SaaS• Web 2.0 -Social Networking -Dist Co-Creation
___________• Application & Infrastructure Software
Straight –Thru-Processing• Web 3.0 “Pull” Internet Commerce
• Identity 2.0 • Cloud 2.0
• ICT Industry Providers (Quad Convergence)
• Search and Ad business models
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductors
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer Systems and Software
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking and Storage Systems and Software
Reach• WWW• Distributed Apps
• Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant
____________• Internet Applications & Business Models
Straight –thru -Processing• WOA/Mashups• Identity 3.0• Cloud 3.0 • Web 3.0 - Cyber Proxy___________ • Web 3.0 Apps and “Push” business models
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
Cycle 6: Web PresenceCycle 6: Web Presence
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking Companies
Reach• WWW
• Distributed Apps
• Ecommerce
___________
• Internet Applications & Business Models
Straight –Thru-Processing• WOA/Mashups• Identity 1.0• Cloud 1.0 ___________• Web 3.0 Apps and “Pull” business models
Transparency• Associative data services• Quantum computing ___________• Web 4.0: Web Presence (applications and business models)
Semiconductors
• Manufacturing
Equipment
• Chip design &
test tools
______________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers• Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets
• MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks• Client/Serve
Applications
• Dist Storage:
SAN & NAS
______________
• Networking Companies
Reach• Broadband• Search, SaaS• Web 2.0 - Social Networking - Dist Co-Creation
___________• Application & Infrastructure Software
Straight –Thru-Processing• Web 3.0 “Pull” Internet Commerce
• Identity 2.0 • Cloud 2.0
• ICT Industry Providers (Quad Convergence)
• Search and Ad business models
Transparency
• Web 4.0 “Web Presence”• Identity 3.0
•Self-forming “applications”
• Pull market economics consolidates the “Push” mass market economy
Semiconductors
• Integrated
circuit
• Simple memory
and logic chips___________
• Semiconductors
Computers• Minicomputers• PCs• Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer Systems and Software
Networks
• Hubs & Routers
• Networking SW
___________
• Networking and Storage Systems and Software
Reach• WWW• Distributed Apps
• Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant
____________• Internet Applications & Business Models
Straight –thru -Processing• WOA/Mashups• Identity 3.0• Cloud 3.0 • Web 3.0 - Cyber Proxy___________ • Web 3.0 Apps and “Push” business models
Transparency • Associative data services•Web 4.0 - Cyber Awareness
- Physical & Virtual converge
___________• Web 4.0: Web Presence (applications and business models)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
Ph
ase
1
CommoditizationCommoditization
Build Out Build Out
_______
Consolidation Consolidation
◄ InventionInvention_________◄ Boom & BustBoom & Bust
P
has
e 3
Ph
ase
2
P
has
e 1
Cycle 1Cycle 1 Cycle 2Cycle 2 Cycle 3Cycle 3 Cycle 4Cycle 4 Cycle 5Cycle 5 Cycle 6Cycle 6
Life on the Web in 2040Identity provides security with privacy and civil liberties
The “Pull” Economy dramatically improves productivity moving most the world into the middle class!
Web Presence where virtual meets physical and our abilities transcend our disabilities!
My Cyber-Aware Proxy: The self-aware proxy for life “My buddy, my alter-ego, my mentor and my guardian!
My world is under my control.
So what comes next? The Dematerialization Age, where Bio meets
Nano