Bilderberg Meetings Conference Report 1989

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BILDERBERG MEETINGS

LA TOJACONFERENCE

12-14 May 1989

NOT FOR QUOTATION


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FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3PARTICIPANTS 5AGENDA .................................................... 11OPENING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13I. DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS IN EASTERN EUROPE:POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WEST

Background Paper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Introductory Remarks, I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Introductory Remarks, II. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Introductory Remarks, III. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24II. CAN THE ALLIANCE BE SUSTAINED BY MILITARY

AND ARMS CONTROL ISSUES ALONE?Introductory Remarks, I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Introductory Remarks, II. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

III. THE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC DESIGN OF THE E.C.:EUROPEAN SOVEREIGNTY?Introductory Remarks, I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Introductory Remarks, II. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Introductory Remarks, Ill. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

IV. CURRENT EVENTS: U.S. - SOVIET RELATIONSIntroductory Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Discussion ....................................... : . . . . . . . 41

V. GREATER POLITICAL AND MONETARY UNION OF EUROPE:EUROPEAN SOVEREIGNTY?Introductory Remarks, I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Introductory Remarks, II. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

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VI. GLOBAL RELATIONSHIPS: SURPLUSES, DEFICITS, ANDPROTECTIONISMIntroductory Remarks, I. ...................................Introductory Remarks, II. . .................................. .

I n _ t r o d u ~ t o r y Remarks, III. . ................................. .DtScuss1on . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . VII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS

50515253

Background Paper .................................. . . . . . . 57Introductory Remarks, I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Introductory Remarks, II. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68I n . t r o d u ~ t o r y Remarks, III. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

CLOSING .................................................. 74FOREWORD

This booklet is an account of the proceedings of the 1989 Bilderberg Meeting at theGran Hotel La Toja, Island of La Toja, Spain. Working papers and introductory remarksappear essentially as they were presented, with some minor editing. Comments andinterventions made in the discussion sessions, as well as panelists' closing remarks, areorganized and reported according to subject matter, not necessarily in the order in whichthey were made, nor always in their entirety.

Grant F. WinthropRapporteur

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CHAIRMANLord Roll of Ipsden*President, S.G. Warburg Group pie

CHAIRMAN DESIGNATELord CarringtonChairman of the Board, Christie's International pie;Former Secretary General, NATO

HONORARY SECRETARY GENERAL FOR EUROPE AND CANADAVictor Halberstadt*Professor of Public Finance, Leyden University

HONORARY SECRETARY GENERAL FOR THE U.S.A.Theodore L. Eliot, Jr.*Senior Research Fellow, Hoover Institution on War,Revolution and Peace, Stanford University

HONORARY TREASURER

ITADENUSAUKUSAPOR

Conrad J. Oort*Member of the Board, Algemene Bank Nederland N.V.;Professor of Money and Banking, University of Limburg

Giovanni Agnelli**Tage Andersen*Dwayne 0 . AndreasPaddy AshdownGeorge W. Ball**Francisco Pinto Balsemao*

Chairman, Fiat S.pA.Managing Director and Chief Executive, DenDanske BankChairman, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company,Inc.Member of Parliament; Leader of the Socialand Liberal DemocratsFormer Under-Secretary of StateProfessor of Mass Communication, NewUniversity, Lisbon; Chairman, SOJORNAL;Former Prime Minister

NETH Relus ter Beek Member of Parliament; Labour PartySpokesman on International AffairsCAN Michel F. Belanger Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, NationalBank of CanadaUSA Jack F. Bennett*

USA Lloyd M. Bentsen, Jr.NETH Ernst H. van der Beugel**

Former Director and Senior Vice President,Exxon Corporation; Former Under-Secretary ofthe Treasury for Monetary AffairsU.S. Senator (Democrat, Texas)Emeritus Professor of International Relations,Leyden University; Director of Companies5


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I. DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS IN EASTERN EUROPE:POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WESTModerator: Charles McC. Mathias, Jr.Introductions: Michaela. GeigerWilliam E. GriffithBackground Paper: Timothy J. Garton Ash

II. CAN THE ALLIANCE BE SUSTAINED BY MILITARYAND ARMS CONTROL ISSUES ALONE?Moderator: Lord CarringtonIntroductions: Theo SommerHenry A. Kissinger

III. THE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC DESIGN OF THE E.C.:EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN'IY?Moderator: Kenneth W. DamIntroductions: Giovanni AgnelliLloyd M. Bentsen, Jr.Peter D. Sutherland

IV. CURRENT EVENTS: U.S. - SOVIET RELATIONSModerator: Etienne DavignonIntroduction: Rozanne L. Ridgway

V. GREATER POLITICAL AND MONETARY UNION OF EUROPE:EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN'IY?Moderator: Lord Roll of IpsdenIntroductions: Miguel Boyer SalvadorRupert L. Pennant-Rea

VI. GLOBAL RELATIONSHIPS: SURPLUSES, DEFICITS, ANDPROTECTIONISMModerator: James D. WolfensohnIntroductions: Charles H. DallaraArthur DunkelH. Onno Ruding

VII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTSModerator: Costa CarrasIntroductions: William K. ReillyKlaus TopferBackground Paper: S. Ichtiaque Rasool

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OPENINGThe thirty-seventh Bilderberg Meeting was held at the Gran Hotel La Toja, on theIsland of La Toja, Spain, on May 11-14, 1989. There were 112 participants from 19European countries, the United States, and Canada. They represented government,diplomacy, politics, business, law, labor, education, journalism, the military, and institutesspecializing in national and international studies. All participants spoke in a personalcapacity, not as representatives of their national governments or their organizations. As

is usual at Bilderberg Meetings, in order to permit frank and open discussions, noreporting of the conference proceedings took place.Lord Roll of Ipsden, the Chairman of the Bilderberg Meetings, opened theconference with an expression of good wishes and appreciation to their Majesties theKing and Queen of Spain. He then reviewed the procedural rules of the meeting, stressingthe need for punctuality and for adhering to the time limits prescribed for participating inthe discussions.

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GLOBAL CHANGElon.g-Term Trends in Concentrations of Greenhouseand Ozone-Depleting Gases

Nitrous Oxide IN 201


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Key Global Change I s sues :

Ozone Deple t ion [ Greenhouse Warming I Defores ta t ion Dese r t i f i ca t i on Soi l Erosion Ocean Product iv i ty Atmospheric Dust Fresh Water Supply

FIG.3

FIG. 4

Parts per Billion:::i80

260

. . . J. .. . . . .. " .. . .. . . \ . ,,;;.:..... a . ' ' ' . . , . ~ .. ..~ . . - - ~ ~ . . , - ~ ~ - . ~ ~ - - - , ~ ~ ~ r - ~ ~ . - ~ ~ - . ~ ~ - - - ,

0 300 600 900 1,200 1.500 1,800 2,100Year

Source: M.A.K. Khalil and AA. Rasmussen, "Nitrous Oxide: Trends and Global Mass Balance Over the Last 3,000 Years;' Annals ofGlac10/ogy, Vol. 10, 1988.

Parts per Billion1.8001,6001.400

Methane ICH4 1AnnualChange;"ConcentrationYear' (ppbl

10,000 yaai*s ago-A.D. 1700 0.0 l700-1900 +1.51900-1925 +2.2,200 J. : , ~ .. J)- . .1927-1956 +6.41962-1973 +11.01974-1984 + 17.0,000

80060 040 0

r I I I10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0Years Before Present

Source: M.A.K. Khalil and A.A. Rasmussen, "Atmospheric Methane: Trends Over the Last 10,000 Years," Atmospheric Environment,

FIG. 5

Long-Term Trends in Concentrations of Greenhouseand Ozone-Depleting Gases

Parts per Million35 0

30 0

280

26 0

240

22 0

20 0

18 0

Carbon Dioxide iC0211987 Concentration = 34 9 p p m ~

160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0Years Before Present

Source: J. M. Barnola, et al., "Vostok Ice Core Provides 160,000-year Record of Atmospheric C0 2," Nature, Vol. 329, p. 410.

FIG.6 61

0. 4 r - - - r - - - r - - r - - r - - . ~ r - - - r - . . . - - i - - . - - r - - - i r - - . . . - . . . - - i - - r - r - - i ~ . . - - . . . . - - . . . . ~Annual Mean5 Year Running Mean


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wa:

o.2 1 - - + - - - + - - - 1 ~ + - - 1 - - - - ! - - + - - l r - - + - - + - - - + - - 1 ~ + - - + - - t t - - + _ _ , 1 - - + - - + - - _ . . , . " " ' 4 . . . . _ . . . .

O ! - + - + - - + - - + - - + - - + - - - t - - + - + . . . . - . . M f - 4 - - l ~ ~ b l - ~ + . . . . ; ~ f - ! + - - + - + - ~

!:;:ffi - 0 . 2 f - - + - - f f - ~ ~ " t t - - t - - l - f ' ' i ' - - - - l - - - - + ~ 1 - - - l - - + - + ~ + - - + " - + - > f - + - - - l 1 _ _ ; 1 - - + - - lCl.w1-

-0 .4 ::l l Error Estimates (95% Confidence)

- 0 . 6 , _ _ . + - - + - + ~ i - - 4 - - - ! - - + - - l ~ + - - + - - + - - + ~ i - - 4 - - 1 - - + - - l ~ + - - + - - 1 - - - l - - I

-o.81 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 11880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990DATE

FIGURE 10-1 Departure of mean global temperatures from their 1951 to 1980period mean value for individual years (dots connected with dashed lines) andfor 5-year running mean values (solid curve). Error estimates for both individualand running mean values are shown for selected years. Period of record is 1880through 1987. (Reprinted from Hansen and Lebedeff, 1988. Copyright 1988by the American Geophysical Union.)

FIG. 7

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Global Mean Temperature

Paleo Doto---- ...,.

- 2025I (Dote) . - 2000~

odel( Scenario Al

150 125 100 75 50 25 0Thousands of Years Ago

FIG.9

FORECASTING THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT:SEASONAL PREDICTIONS

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Ul 4:>

Ulill 2;-.

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TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES

~ GISS

M~OA

~i 02m0

!41d ~2 ~44-O j

PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES

rl!'B GFDL 0 osuLARGE DIFFERENCES, PARTICULARLY FOR PRECIPITATION

FIG.10

SOIL WATER DIFFERENCES FOR JJA SATELLITE MONITORING OF


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sos3 l;--.- , ~ ~ . . . : . . . . _ . . - - I0 0 lOE 60 90 20 !SO 180 1sbw 120W 90W ,ow JOW O JOt 60E 90 ll0 ISOE 180 !SOW 120W 90W 60W JOW O JOEOSU, 2C01 -11C02

go sL - , . - , ' , . t ~ ~ - ~ . I 90sl ' ' ' ~ ' - , ~ ' [- - - - - - - - - - - ~ - -------------70Sc:---__.......____.--?' ... ~ . . - - J 2 _ ~ _ . . . . - - -90S --r--r--r-1-- ,---r--r----,--,---,-- r-1----r--

JOW 0 lOE 60 90 IW f ISOE 1&0 JSOW 120W 60w JOW 0 30

FIG.11

64 FIG.12

DEFORESTATIONRONDONIA, BRAZIL

1982

1987FIG.13 65


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CLOSINGIn closing the conference, Lord Roll first recognized the contributions to Bilderbergof Tage Andersen and Franz Liitolf, who were retiring from the Steering Committee.Speaking on behalf of all the participants, he thanked all those whose efforts hadmade the conference a success: the Spanish hosts, led by Jaime Carvajal; the sessionchairmen, working paper authors, and panelists; the conference organizer, Julio Abreu;the Bilderberg Secretariat; the interpreters; the management and staff of the Gran HotelLa Toja; and the security staff.

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Bilderberg Meetings Conference Report 1989

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