Big world trends and the opportunities these create for ICT€¦ · Big world trends and the opportunities these create for ICT ... It’s good to be green ... but there is no magic

Big world trends and the opportunities these create for ICT

Hamish McRae

• Five great medium-term global shifts and …

• … their implications for the world of finance

• Three big questions about the future

The Future?The Future?

All futures have roots in the pastAll futures …

The presentation's structure

• Five great medium-term global shifts …

• … and how each might affect ICT applications

• Thoughts on the future of ICT applications …

• … in the six areas of the foresight project …

• … and some big questions about human needs

Five great global trends

• Demography – how do we turn this to advantage?

• The environment – we all need to be greener

• Globalisation – the historic shift of power to Asia

• Technology – towards a global level playing field

• Government – will spend less and regulate more

Ageing societies are different

• The developed world is getting older …

• … but at different rates

• Immigration does help – but only at the margin

• For Europe this is not just fixing pensions …

• … but also adapting to different types of work …

• … lifestyles, values and attitudes

What this might mean for ICT

• The European economy faces headwinds …

• … and ICT is one of the few weapons we have to cope

• Mechanical implications for using older workers …

• … part-timers, students and the unwaged

• Implications beyond the workplace

• But stress between old people and young technologies

• So ICT should be an invisible helping hand

It’s good to be green

• We can start to glimpse the end of the oil era …

• … recent price falls don't change the big trends

• Uncertain energy supplies, coupled with …

• … huge demand from the US, China and India

• The quest for mobility however will continue …

• … and concerns about climate change will rise

Is world oil production about to peak?


• A world where resources are no longer abundant …

• … substitutes technology for energy

• Obvious applications: driving up efficiency

• Less obvious: the push to "better", not "more"

• What follows the Western consumer economic model?

Globalisation is our friend

• The two “new” giants: China and India

• China lowest cost manufacturer in the world

• India lowest cost service provider

• Russia is quite different!

• So how can we justify European wages?

• Answer: intellect, culture and education


• The greatest shift of economic power for 150 years …

• … a shift in part driven by the new technologies

• Obvious applications in outsourcing …

• … but that is a hard way to earn a decent living

• So how do you use ICT to improve competitiveness?

• Answer: the only room is at the top of the market

ICT: application is the key

• It is a global level playing field …

• … and there is no "fringe" anymore

• Europe has no advantage over Asia

• So what can we do better than others?

• Answer: culturally sensitive applications


• The new technologies are universally available …

• … so application matters more than development …

• … but you need master technology

• The need to deploy European intelligence and creativity

• Estonia has some competitive advantages …

• … but there is no magic wand, just attention to detail

Government in the 21st century

• There are some things only governments can do

• But huge financial pressures as demands rise …

• … and revenues of most governments are cut away

• Government becomes an enabler, nudging society …

• … with light but effective regulation …

• … towards greater personal responsibility


• We are seeing a resurgence of the authority of the state

• But this is a blip on the path to "new government"

• "New government" is not just about lower taxes …

• … but about being more responsive to needs

• Estonia has special opportunities for using ICT

• E.g. How do you best connect with the diaspora?

The six foresight areas

• Education

• Health care

• Industry

• Energy

• Financial services

• ICT security

New education …

G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT

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… old education?


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Education - lighting a fire

• Education becomes a two way street …

• … demand-driven as much as supply-driven

• All ages - not one shot

• A good university is a club …

• … and an industry …

• … and a magnet for economic success

Old health care …


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… new health care?


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Health - physician heal thyself

• How to you foster a healthier society?

• ICT enables people to control their own health

• So how do you persuade them to do so?

• Information. Education. Persuasion.

Old industry …


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… new industry?


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Industry - the march to services

• Industry in Europe will be high-tech or crafts …

• … as mass manufacturing goes to Asia

• So ICT has to support niches …

• … support exportable services …

• … foster start-ups …

• … and use the workforce it has got

Old energy …


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… new energy?


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Energy - efficiency is the key

• Efficiency in energy use …

• … in energy education …

• … and in lifestyles

• So do the standard applications but …

• … remember life has to be fun!

Old finance …


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… new finance?


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Finance - under huge pressure

• The global supply of services will shrink …

• … and trust is very low

• But underlying demand will rise

• So how does ICT rebuild trust and meet demand?

Old ICT security …


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… new ICT security?


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ICT security - the global threat

• The world is at war …

• … and will continue to be for a generation

• How do we get out of the trenches?

• Don't get into them in the first place

We need to be self-critical …

I am not always happy with the compliments Estonia has received

Lennart Meri

… but also self-confident …

The country and society is strong enough to tell the truth with a straight back

Lennart Meri

… to answer the key question

What do human beings really want?

Anon

Big world trends and the opportunities these create for ICT€¦ · Big world trends and the opportunities these create for ICT ... It’s good to be green ... but there is no magic

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