PEAK MARKET - Signals the End of the Real Estate Cycle is eminent PENDING RATIO 100 or GREATER PEAK SELLERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 51 TO 99 SELLER'S NEUTRAL OR STABLE MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 30 TO 50 NEUTRAL BUYERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO BELOW 30 BUYER'S TABLE 1 ACTIVE PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold Average VOLUME Median # SOLD to $4M LISTINGS SALES RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price Last 30 days 1/31/1997 no data no data no data no data 252 273,700 $ 69.0 $ 228,000 $ 16 1/31/1998 374 63 16.84 BUYER'S 246 283,000 $ 69.6 $ 237,000 $ 14 1/31/1999 305 73 23.93 BUYER'S 330 268,900 $ 88.7 $ 224,500 $ 19 1/31/2000 192 106 55.21 SELLER'S 441 313,700 $ 138.3 $ 246,000 $ 34 1/31/2001 290 134 46.21 NEUTRAL 447 360,400 $ 161.1 $ 275,000 $ 41 1/31/2002 no data 129 no data no data 519 354,900 $ 184.2 $ 275,000 $ 44 1/31/2003 228 133 58.33 SELLER'S 529 372,800 $ 197.2 $ 322,200 $ 28 1/31/2004 133 151 113.53 DEMAND PEAK 660 456,000 $ 301.0 $ 395,500 $ 48 1/31/2005 152 155 101.97 SELLER'S 683 585,100 $ 399.6 $ 498,000 $ 43 1/31/2006 304 119 39.14 NEUTRAL 648 737,200 $ 477.7 $ 625,000 $ 39 1/31/2007 407 77 18.92 PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 474 753,200 $ 357.0 $ 630,000 $ 29 1/31/2008 449 77 17.15 BUYER'S 394 718,900 $ 283.2 $ 603,500 $ 20 1/31/2009 447 41 9.17 DEMAND LOW 234 664,100 $ 155.4 $ 529,500 $ 7 1/31/2010 397 82 20.65 BUYER'S 283 500,900 $ 141.8 $ 420,000 $ 23 1/31/2011 279 105 37.63 NEUTRAL 357 467,900 $ 167.0 $ 395,000 $ 19 1/31/2012 268 97 36.19 PRICE BOTTOM >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 402 457,100 $ 183.8 $ 368,500 $ 23 1/31/2013 205 120 58.54 SELLER'S 420 514,200 $ 216.0 $ 399,100 $ 31 2010/2011 %chg -24% 24% 62% 4% 12% 18% 8% 35% GRIGGS REPORT #129 - JANUARY 31, 2013 A TWICE MONTHLY REAL ESTATE MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR NORTH KONA AND THE BIG ISLAND Inventory continues to be tight with a 24% decline from last year. All other stats continue to show improvement from a ye ar ago. Both Average and Median Price continue to show increase in almost each report. The pending ratio has taken its seasonal turn upward due to increased number of pending sales and stable or declining invent ory. $395 $400 $391 $375 $369 $369 $369 $365 $365 $373 $383 $385 $385 $385 $393 $399 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 $340 $350 $360 $370 $380 $390 $400 $410 Chart 1 - Kona Residential Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years Res-Median Price Res Pending Ratio 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 $- $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 CHART 2 - N. Kona Residential Median Price vs Number Sold Since 1997 Median Price Number Sold 12 Month Period PAGE 1 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA ABOUT THE PENDING RATIO: The Pending Ratio is used throughout the report to serve as an indicator of Market Strength and Market Trend.. PENDING RATIO = NUMBER OF PENDING SALES DIVIDED BY ACTIVE LISTING TIMES 100 / THE HIGHER RATIO = STRONGER MARKET DEMAND. Why it is a useful indicator: 1) It is a current leading indicator of market Demand vs. Supply Dynamics based on Listing and Pending Sale MLS Data. 2) It is a readily available useful indication or market strength when tract over time shows market trend. The following Color Codes describe what the ratio numbers mean in terms of the type of market. ( This calibration is less accurate when there is an abnormal supply of distressed properties entering the market on a regular basis such as currently is the case. ) NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA TABLE CHART 2 - The growth in the number of home sales is remains relatively stable.
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Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona
Big Island Real Estate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona
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PEAK MARKET - Signals the End of the Real Estate Cycle is eminent PENDING RATIO 100 or GREATER PEAKSELLERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 51 TO 99 SELLER'SNEUTRAL OR STABLE MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 30 TO 50 NEUTRALBUYERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO BELOW 30 BUYER'S
TABLE 1 ACTIVE PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold Average VOLUME Median # SOLD
to $4M LISTINGS SALES RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price Last 30 days
1/31/1997 no data no data no data no data 252 273,700$ 69.0$ 228,000$ 16
A TWICE MONTHLY REAL ESTATE MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR NORTH KONA AND THE BIG ISLAND
Inventory continues to be tight with a 24% decline from last year. All other stats continue to show improvement from a year ago. Both Average and Median Price
continue to show increase in almost each report.
The pending ratio has taken its seasonal turn upward due to increased number of pending sales and stable or declining inventory.
$395 $400
$391
$375 $369 $369 $369
$365 $365
$373
$383 $385 $385 $385
$393 $399
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
$340
$350
$360
$370
$380
$390
$400
$410
Chart 1 - Kona Residential Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years
Res-Median Price Res Pending Ratio
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
CHART 2 - N. Kona Residential Median Price vs Number Sold Since 1997
Median Price Number Sold 12 Month Period
PAGE 1 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA
ABOUT THE PENDING RATIO: The Pending Ratio is used throughout the report to serve as an indicator of Market Strength and Market Trend..
PENDING RATIO = NUMBER OF PENDING SALES DIVIDED BY ACTIVE LISTING TIMES 100 / THE HIGHER RATIO = STRONGER MARKET DEMAND.
Why it is a useful indicator:
1) It is a current leading indicator of market Demand vs. Supply Dynamics based on Listing and Pending Sale MLS Data. 2) It is a readily available useful indication or market strength when tract over time shows market trend.
The following Color Codes describe what the ratio numbers mean in terms of the type of market.
( This calibration is less accurate when there is an abnormal supply of distressed properties entering the market on a regular basis such as currently is the case. )
NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA TABLE
CHART 2 - The growth in the number of home sales is remains relatively stable.
TABLE 2
KONA Residential NUMBER AVERAGE NUMBER AVERAGE PENDING VOL KONA RES NUMBER SOLD PENDING
PRICE RANGE ACTIVE PRICE PENDING PRICE MILLIONS 2012 2013 RATIO
ALL BIG ISLE ACTIVE 1217 $19,600 $25,000,000 $849,631 $369,000 $299,000 $1,034
ALL BIG ISLE PENDING 416 $30,000 $11,900,000 $464,190 $266,500 $299,000 193.1$ 34.18
ALL BIG ISLE SOLD YTD 101 $46,500 $3,300,000 $356,298 $282,500 $230,000 $ 36.0
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
CHART 4 - West HI, East HI and Hawaii Island - Residential Pending Ratio over the Past Two Years
West Hawaii Ratio
East Hawaii Ratio
Big Is Res Ratio
TABLE 2 - The under $400,000 inventory now stands at only 33 homes. ....WOW! The over $4.0M market has had quite a lift in its seasonal sales with decline in
inventory and nice spike in pending sales of 5 homes. This is up from 0 one month ago. Pink "Buyers" market is only indicated in 3 price ranges now, all above
NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA
PAGE 2 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE TABLE AND BIG ISLAND RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS, PENDING SALES AND SALES Year To Date
BIG ISLAND LISTING, PENDING SALES AND SALES YEAR TO DATE
214, 49%
80, 18%
57, 13%
36, 8%
25, 6%
11, 3% 12, 3%
CHART 3 - NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL NUMBER SOLD PAST 12 MONTHS
BY PRICE RANGE - Number, Percent of Total
TO $400,000
$401,000 $500,000
$501,000 $700,000
$701,000 $900,000
$901,000 $1,500,000
$1.5M $ 4.0M
$4.001 M or GREATER
CHART 4 - A seasonal increase in Pending Ratio is on cue with both East and West sides showing nice increase in Pending Ratio. Island wide inventory is down 17% from
1/31/12
NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA
NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA
NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
CHART 5 - Percentage of Total MLS Active, Pending or 90 sales Listings that are Short Sales or REO
Chart 7 - Kona Condo Median Price( thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years
Median Price Condo Pending Ratio
PAGE 4
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
CHART 8 NORTH KONA CONDO MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD
Number Sold 12Month Period
MEDIAN Price
CHART 7 - Like Residential the N. Kona condo inventory shows a Year over Year decline. Unlike residential the number pending sales and sales is not much different than
a year ago. Median price is up a healthy 15% percent now compared to median price in previous twelve months.
CHART 8 - Condo price appears to be on an increasing trend due to strong sales numbers and declining inventory.
TABLE 5 PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold Average VOLUME Median # SOLD
to $1.5M ACTIVE SALES RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price Last 30 days
1/31/1997 no data no data no data no data 89 212,200$ 18.9$ 135,000$ 3
1/31/1998 no data no data no data no data 142 194,700$ 27.6$ 125,000$ 11
Chart 9 - Kona Land Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio Past 2 Years LAND-Median Price LAND Ratio
PAGE 6
Year over year stat's actual show an increase in inventory . The up side of this is there is also double the number of escrows and sales are up 24%.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
CHART 10 - NORTH KONA LAND MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD
Median Price
Number Sold 12Month Period
PAGE 5 NORTH KONA LAND DATA
Sales numbers and overall demand increase has not been enough to change the land markets price direction. Price seems to be relatively stable but not on increasing path
seen wtih Residential and Condos. There is still a substantial general over supply.
COLOR GUIDE FOR MARKET TYPE: PEAK SELLERS NEUTRAL BUYERS
TABLE 6 Average TO $400K $401K-$500K $501K-$700K$701K-$900K $901-$1.5M$1.501M-$4.0M
TABLE # 6 - Higher Ratio = Stronger Market. BIG ISLAND PENDING RATIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS AT NEW HIGH. Year over Year improvement is substantial in all catagories except Kona Condos is only slightly improved from a year ago. Notice as the recovery progresses the increasing Pending Ratios in Residential Price Ranges spreads to higher price levels. Three yea r ago all price range colomns were pink with the exception for under $400,000.
KONA RES , CONDO, LND & BIG IS PENDING RATIO TRENDS KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE PENDING RATIO'S
PAGE 6 SUMMARY TABLE OF PENDING RATIO TRENDS FOR NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL, CONDO AND LAND , BIG ISLAND RESIDENTIAL AND
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
CHART 6 - Kona Residential and Condo Pending Ratios for the past 12 Months
KONA RES
KONA CND
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00Chart 7 - North Kona Residential Pending Ratio by Price Range
TO $400K
$401K-$500K
$501K-$700K
$701K-$900K
$901-$1.5M
$1.501M-$4.0M
Chart 7 - As mentioned the year over year improvement is substantial. The year end and first two weeks of the new year are fairly flat. We should expect this to change
fairly dramatically going forward?
COUNTY KONA LA VEGAS SAN DIEGO SAN FRAN PORTLAND,O SANTA FE, NM
POPULATION 2010 33,300 9.819M 1.95M 3.095M 805,000 2.260M 144,170 Realtor.com - Market Area KONA LA VEGAS SAN DIEGO SAN FRAN PORTLAND SANTA FE, NM
TABLE 1 - KONA & WEST COAST CITIES RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY - January 31, 2013
CURRENT DQNEWS.COM HEADLINES RELATED TO CALIFORNIA MARKETS: SEE FULL STORY ON WEBSITE - DQNews.com 1) An estimated 39,760 new and resale houses and condos sold statewide last month, up 6.1 percent from 37,481 in November, and u p 5.4 percent from 37,734 sales in December 2011 2) The pace at which the Bay Area housing market is making up for lost ground quickened at the end of 2012 as sales increase d year-over-year for the 18th month in a row and the median price rose at its fastest rate in more than 25 years. The market remained constrained by a tight supply of homes for sale and a fussy home loan environment interest 3) The number of Golden State homes sold for a million dollars or more rose to its highest level since 2007, fueled by a rec overing economy, rising home prices and a record number of cash purchases. The number of homes sold for more than $5 million rose to an all -time high 4) The number of California homeowners pushed into the foreclosure process fell last quarter to the lowest level in six years, t he result of rising home values, an improving economy and a shift toward short sales .
5)The number of California homes purchased with cash reached an all -time high last year, the result of high investor interest, a difficult mortgage environment, and perceived higher returns on
TABLE & CHART 1 COMMENTS: Declining inventory trend continues in Kona and all other market areas on the West Coast followe d in this report.
The inventory on the West Coast are showing the typical season decline couple by sharp Year over Year declines. Kona's i nventory decline is not at the pace of the CA metro's. San Diego and
San Francisco showing very sharp declines.
DQNEWS.COM comments below the Price chart indicate the Bay Area price appreciation greatest in 25 years at 20% Year over Yea r.
Data is residential listing inventory from REALTOR.COM
CHART 1 - Single Family Residential Inventory - KONA , SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO & L A
KONA SAN FRAN SAN DIEGO L A
PRICE TREND COMMENTS: Each of the 20 cities in the Case Shiller study as of September shows price increase over the past 12 months. * Kona home price data from Hawaii Information Service and is Median Price. * San Diego , LA and San Francisco is a home price index from Case Shiller Home Price index.
ALL HAWAII DATA HAS BEEN COLLECTED FROM MLS HAWAII, HAWAII INFORMATION SERVICE, REALTORS.COM AND OTHER SOURCES NAMED IN THE REPORT.
NOTES:
1) PAGE 1- TABLE 1 - RESIDENTIAL DATA COLLECTED IS LIMITED TO $4M AND UNDER PRICE RANGE IN ORDER TO SCREEN OUT RECENT HIGH END ACTIVITY AT KUKIO
AND HUALALAI RESORT AREA'S. SIMILARLY THE CONDO AND LAND DATA HAS AN UPPER LIMIT OF $1.5M.
2) NUMBER SOLD, AVERAGE PRICE AND MEDIAN PRICE IS DATA IS FROM A MOVING 12 MONTH PERIOD. UPDATED EVERY TWO WEEKS THIS I S A VERY ACCURATE METHOD OF TRACKING THE SALES PRICE TRENDS. 3) THE PENDING RATIO MAYBE A GOOD LEADING INDICATOR OF MARKET STRENGTH AND PRICE DIRECTION. THE MARKET TYPE DESIGNATION, EG. SELLER, BUYER
MARKET, NEUTRAL AND PEAK IS BASED ON CALIBRATION IS USING PENDING RATIO DATA IN THE PAST MARKET CYCLE.
3) PAGE 1-TABLES 1 , 2 and 3 REPRESENTS THE ENTIRE NORTH KONA MARKET. IT SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE AN INDICATOR OF THE MARKET CONDITION IN
ALL SUBMARKETS WITHIN THE MARKET AREA OR FOR DIFFERENT MARKET AREAS ON THE ISLAND.
MICHAEL B. GRIGGS, RB AND CLARK REALTY CORPORATION ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR IT'S USE BY OTHERS. YOUR ARE WELCOME TO SHARE THE REPORT WITH
OTHERS. MAHALO!
USEFUL WEBSITES:
A www. dqnews.com/ - Western metros sales data and trends.
B. www.housingtracker.net - Listing inventory and average list prices for 52 large cities. C. www. nahb.org - National Association of Home Builders.
D.www.mbaa.org - Mortgage Bankers Association - loan activity and loan forecasts.
E. www.fhfa.gov - Federal Housing Finance Agency - GOVERNMENT DATA ON HOUSING MARKET
F. Google search - "Case-Shiller Home Price Indices"
G. www.realtytimes.com - Real Estate Agents perspective of local markets.
H. www.realtor.org - NAR - Select "News Media" and look for "Economic Housing Indicators". I. www.hawaii.gov/dbedt - Dept. of Business and Economic Development
J. www.federalreserve.gov
K. www.eia.doe.gov - Energy Information Agency - Oil and Gas prices and forecasts.
L. www.hawaii-county.com/info/stats.html - Hawaii County statistics. Updates monthly.
M. www.uhero.hawaii.edu/ Very good Hawaii State Economic reports