1 Biased Risk Decisions: (Re)searching for an Educational Remedy EAPRIL Luxembourg 25th Nov 2015 Ab Bertholet Utrecht University of Applied Sciences (NL) Department of Safety and Security Management Studies
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1
Biased Risk Decisions:
(Re)searching for an Educational Remedy
EAPRIL Luxembourg 25th Nov 2015
Ab Bertholet
Utrecht University of Applied Sciences (NL)
Department of Safety and Security Management Studies
Present & Discuss Session
1. Introduction
2. Problem analysis
3. Process model
4. Critical competences
5. Educational intervention
6. Experimental setting
7. Discussion
1. Introduction
Lecturer/researcher at Utrecht University of Applied
Sciences (NL); Department Safety & Security
Management Studies
Master of Evidence Based Innovation in Teaching
(MEBIT) at Maastricht University (NL)
Main teaching field: Risk and Crisis Communication
Research field (PhD): Risk Intelligence and Risk Skill
NO THREATS?
2. Problem Analysis
Safety & Security Management
2. Problem Analysis
Safety & Security Management
Risk Management as a Core Task
Reducing Risk and Risk Effects
Safety and Security Risks
3. Process Model
3. Process Model
Tools for Risk Decision Making
Formulas
Models
Protocols
Checklists
Hardware
Software
…But still from time to time things are goingwrong… i.e. wrong decisions are made
• Social Psychology• Behavioural Economy• Educational Psychology
‘It’s the human way of thinking that leads tosystematic biases andirrational Risk Decisions’
Risicomanagement
Risico-intelligentie• Helder denken• Kritisch denken• Gecijferdheid • Risicogeletterdheid
Risicocommunicatie
A.G.E.M. Bertholet (2015)
1 Cognitive IllusionBayesian probabilitiesExtremely small probabilitiesQuantitative argumentation
2 Systematic biasesConfirmation biasOverestimation biasAvailibility bias
1 2
3
3 Systematic biasesConfirmation biasHindsight bias
Biased Analysis and Decision Making
4. Critical Competences
A.G.E.M. Bertholet (2015)
5. Educational Intervention
Reflective practitioner
Metacognition
Various instruction strategies: visualization, gamefication, blended methods, doses variation
S&S bachelor students and airport security agents
Evidence based design of experiment
6. Experimental setting
Intervention ‘Security Performance’
Training Airport Security Agents at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
1
Collectingcases
2
Pre Test
3
WorkshopsCritical
Competences
4
ExtensiveTraining
5
Post Test
6
Retention Test
Critical decisionmoments of the airport operationData from desk research, interviews andobservation
Same test forIntervention andcontrol groupPilot phase with60 agents per group
Two workshops on awareness and applicationin practice forinterventiongroup only
Same test forInterventionand control group tocomparedifferences
Testingretention after 2 or 3 months
Dayly 1-item Test to buildheuristics
7. Discussion
“Education and training can contribute to advancedcompetences in risk decision making by bachelor students and security agents”
7. Discussion: What might/will work?
• Strategies
• Teaching methods
• Other suggestions
“Education and training can contribute to advancedcompetences in risk decision making by bachelor students and security agents”
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