Bharat Petroleum Corporation09Aug18 · Bharat Petroleum Corporation August 9, 2018 2 Conference call highlights Kochi refinery full benefits will be evident post maintenance shutdown

August 9, 2018 1

Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs389 | TP: Rs532

Weak operational performance

Quick Pointers

High inventory gains make up for weak core operations

Marketing earnings hit by non-revision of retail prices due to state elections in

Karnataka, which have since been reversed.

OMCs well placed to benefit from tightening marine fuel norms, IMO 2020 as

diesel accounts for ~40% of product slate

High inventory gains drive earnings: BPCL reported strong Q1FY19 results with

EBITDA of Rs38.7bn (PLe Rs30.5bn; +4%QoQ) and PAT of Rs22.9bn (PLe

Rs20.2bn; -14.2%QoQ) led by higher than expected inventory gains of Rs26.8bn.

The core business for the quarter was muted due to lower refining and marketing

earnings. Foreign exchange loss, part of other expenses, of Rs7bn also dragged

core-operating earnings. BPCL’s marketing volumes matched industry run rate for

HSD (3.4% YoY), however, it trailed MS growth- Q1 volume growth of 5.9% YoY

against industry rate of 8.4%YoY respectively. BPCL, with higher share of outlets

in highways has taken proactive steps to stem volume loss from private players.

Core refining marings lower than benchmark: BPCL’s refining margins for

Q1FY19 came in at US$7.49/bbl (Q4FY18 at US$6.5/bbl) and included inventory

gains of Rs12.7bn or US$3.3/bbl. So core GRMs were lower than benchmark

refining margins of US$7.1/bbl due to lower light distillate spreads, higher fuel and

oil losses from higher crude prices and continued stabilization of the Kochi refinery.

However, global GRM’s are likely to remain stable as global demand outstrips net

capacity addition over the next five years. In addition, OMCs with ~40% diesel

product slate remain well placed to benefit from IMO2020 regulation which will

increase diesel demand by >1mbpd. For Q1, refining throughput was at 7.74MTPA

(7.85MTPA in Q4).

Marketing earnings were weak: BPCL’s Q1FY19 marketing EBIDTA was at

Rs17.9bn against Rs20.5bn in Q4FY18. Profitability was supported by inventory

gains of Rs14bn against Rs1bn in Q4. Adjusted for inventory gains, we calculate

marketing EBIDTA of Rs3.9bn against Rs19.5bn in Q4. Weak marketing earnings

were due to non-revision of fuel prices due to Karnataka state elections, which have

since been reversed. Accordingly, we expect marketing earnings to remain strong,

going forward, due to healthy volume growth and stable margins.

Risk-reward favorable: The OMCs have underperformed broader index for last

one year on rising crude prices and impending general elections next year. This is

despite strong profitability trend supported by strong fundamentals and calibrated

reform initiatives by the government. With crude prices unlikely to flare given

increased production from OPEC countries, risk-reward for the sector remain

favorable.

Reiterate, “BUY”: We maintain our earnings estimates for FY19/20E. We like

OMCs given steady earnings traction. Reiterate ‘BUY’ with a PT of Rs532

(unchanged) based on 12x P/E FY19E plus value of investments.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL IN)

August 9, 2018

Q1FY19 Result Update

Change in Estimates | Target | Reco

Change in Estimates

Current Previous

FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E

Rating BUY BUY

Target Price 532 532

Sales (Rs. m) 29,95,958 33,85,317 29,95,958 33,85,317

% Chng. - -

EBITDA (Rs. m) 1,61,859 1,87,876 1,61,859 1,87,876

% Chng. - -

EPS (Rs.) 48.4 55.5 48.4 55.5

% Chng. - -

Key Financials

FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Sales (Rs. bn) 2,013 2,358 2,996 3,385

EBITDA (Rs. bn) 135 152 162 188

Margin (%) 6.7 6.4 5.4 5.5

PAT (Rs. bn) 86 85 105 120

EPS (Rs.) 39.5 39.2 48.4 55.5

Gr. (%) (66.6) (0.7) 23.6 14.6

DPS (Rs.) - - - -

Yield (%) - - - -

RoE (%) 29.2 24.6 25.2 24.7

RoCE (%) 20.5 18.3 16.0 15.8

EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.0 6.4 6.8 5.8

PE (x) 9.9 9.9 8.0 7.0

P/BV (x) 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.6

Key Data BPCL.BO | BPCL IN

52-W High / Low Rs.552 / Rs.360

Sensex / Nifty 38,024 / 11,471

Market Cap Rs.844bn/ $ 12,293m

Shares Outstanding 2,169m

3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.4195.99m

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter’s 54.75

Foreign 16.99

Domestic Institution 13.59

Public & Others 14.67

Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -

Stock Performance (%)

1M 6M 12M

Absolute 3.4 (18.2) (21.6)

Relative (2.3) (26.8) (34.4)

Avishek Datta

[email protected] | 91-22-66322254

Bharat Petroleum Corporation

August 9, 2018 2

Conference call highlights

Kochi refinery full benefits will be evident post maintenance shutdown in October

when the company plans to undertake minor tweaks to improve profitability

Q1 capex for the company at Rs26.2bn; for FY19 capex will be at Rs78bn.

For Q1, BORL and NRL GRMs were at US$15/30/bbl and profits were at

Rs3.9/7.6bn respectively.

Company will get the full extent of damage from recent fire post evaluation;

however, the impact was limited to only one unit.

Q1FY19 Result Overview (Rs m)

Y/e March Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY18 QoQ gr. (%)

Net sales 8,24,309 6,67,664 23.5 7,60,670 8.4

Inc/dec in stock (23,042) 24,689 NA (12,673) NA

Raw material cons 2,86,885 1,71,590 67.2 2,54,300 12.8

Staff cost 8,751 8,087 8.2 9,571 (8.6)

Purchases 3,59,387 3,21,363 11.8 3,26,699 10.0

Duties, taxes, etc 1,07,342 96,406 11.3 1,08,277 (0.9)

Other expenditure 46,235 33,278 38.9 37,280 24.0

Exp (7,85,557) (6,55,413) NA (7,23,454) NA

Operating profit 38,752 12,250 216.3 37,216 4.1

Interest (3,018) (1,789) NA (2,194) NA

Depreciation (7,392) (5,892) NA (7,413) NA

Other income 5,480 6,566 (16.5) 8,329 (34.2)

Profit before tax 33,823 11,136 203.7 35,939 (5.9)

Current tax (10,890) (3,690) NA (9,202) NA

Profit after tax 22,933 7,446 208.0 26,736 (14.2)

Source: Company, PL


August 9, 2018 3

BPCL quarterly internals

Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19

GRMs (USD/bbl) 4.88 7.97 7.89 6.51 7.49

Refining thruput (MTPA) 6.42 7.00 7.27 7.85 7.74

Inventory gains (Rs m)

Marketing (7,314) 1,850 5,650 1,020 14,040

Refining (6,160) 4,990 10,310 3,460 12,750

Gross margins (Rs m) 78,304 67,039 77,028 71,394 70,695

Marketing 14,812 26,242 27,245 24,124 28,428

Refining 63,492 40,797 49,783 47,270 42,267

EBIDTA breakup 12,250 35,276 31,882 37,216 38,752

Marketing 3,509 15,619 11,543 20,503 17,915

Refining 8,742 19,657 20,339 16,712 20,837

EBIDTA breakup ex inventory gains 25,725 28,436 15,922 32,736 11,962

Marketing 10,823 13,769 5,893 19,483 3,875

Refining 14,902 14,667 10,029 13,252 8,087

Core marketing EBIDTA/ton 1,078 1,406 553 1,816 353

Source: Company, PL


August 9, 2018 4

Financials

Income Statement (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Net Revenues 20,12,507 23,57,698 29,95,958 33,85,317

YoY gr. (%) 7.2 17.2 27.1 13.0

Cost of Goods Sold 17,72,433 20,19,084 26,31,948 29,83,252

Gross Profit 2,40,073 3,38,615 3,64,010 4,02,065

Margin (%) 11.9 14.4 12.2 11.9

Employee Cost - - - -

Other Expenses - - - -

EBITDA 1,35,125 1,51,727 1,61,859 1,87,876

YoY gr. (%) 4.4 12.3 6.7 16.1

Margin (%) 6.7 6.4 5.4 5.5

Depreciation and Amortization 21,076 28,850 31,859 34,329

EBIT 1,14,048 1,22,877 1,30,000 1,53,546

Margin (%) 5.7 5.2 4.3 4.5

Net Interest 6,964 11,857 12,413 15,052

Other Income 20,478 17,827 34,381 35,501

Profit Before Tax 1,27,562 1,28,846 1,51,968 1,73,996

Margin (%) 6.3 5.5 5.1 5.1

Total Tax 41,926 43,816 46,912 53,645

Effective tax rate (%) 32.9 34.0 30.9 30.8

Profit after tax 85,636 85,030 1,05,056 1,20,351

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associate - - - -

Adjusted PAT 85,636 85,030 1,05,056 1,20,351

YoY gr. (%) 10.7 (0.7) 23.6 14.6

Margin (%) 4.3 3.6 3.5 3.6

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -

Reported PAT 85,636 85,030 1,05,056 1,20,351

YoY gr. (%) 10.7 (0.7) 23.6 14.6

Margin (%) 4.3 3.6 3.5 3.6

Other Comprehensive Income - - - -

Total Comprehensive Income 85,636 85,030 1,05,056 1,20,351

Equity Shares O/s (m) 2,169 2,169 2,169 2,169

EPS (Rs) 39.5 39.2 48.4 55.5

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)


Non-Current Assets

Gross Block 3,74,956 6,78,889 9,19,296 10,69,941

Tangibles 3,74,956 6,78,889 9,19,296 10,69,941

Intangibles - - - -

Acc: Dep / Amortization 40,569 30,878 59,819 85,738

Tangibles 40,569 30,878 59,819 85,738

Intangibles - - - -

Net fixed assets 3,34,387 6,48,011 8,59,477 9,84,203

Tangibles 3,34,387 6,48,011 8,59,477 9,84,203

Intangibles - - - -

Capital Work In Progress 1,68,339 12,953 20,454 20,455

Goodwill 2,452 - - -

Non-Current Investments 1,90,214 - - -

Net Deferred tax assets (39,273) (47,521) (73,691) (1,00,903)

Other Non-Current Assets 15,095 - - -

Current Assets

Investments 56,728 51,492 51,492 51,494

Inventories 2,11,968 2,12,193 2,51,028 2,61,005

Trade receivables 48,038 65,431 86,042 92,255

Cash & Bank Balance 18,845 1,52,010 1,62,978 2,21,041

Other Current Assets 9,668 9,231 9,692 10,177

Total Assets 10,90,863 11,99,685 14,85,069 16,82,015

Equity

Equity Share Capital 21,692 21,692 21,692 21,692

Other Equity 2,86,505 3,61,735 4,27,501 5,02,664

Total Networth 3,08,197 3,83,427 4,49,193 5,24,356

Non-Current Liabilities

Long Term borrowings 2,32,553 2,25,169 1,93,025 1,65,310

Provisions 14,953 - - -

Other non current liabilities 818 - - -

Current Liabilities

ST Debt / Current of LT Debt 82,177 1,08,978 2,70,286 3,47,600

Trade payables 1,13,825 3,60,306 4,14,324 4,50,137

Other current liabilities 2,77,561 27,519 31,941 34,670

Total Equity & Liabilities 10,90,862 11,99,684 14,85,068 16,82,015



August 9, 2018 5

Cash Flow (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Year

PBT 1,36,996 1,28,846 1,51,968 1,73,996

Add. Depreciation 21,076 28,850 31,859 34,329

Add. Interest 6,964 11,857 12,413 15,052

Less Financial Other Income 20,478 17,827 34,381 35,501

Add. Other (16,577) - - -

Op. profit before WC changes 1,48,460 1,69,554 1,96,240 2,23,377

Net Changes-WC (18,859) (24,993) 2,991 24,389

Direct tax (39,039) (37,660) (20,742) (26,433)

Net cash from Op. activities 90,562 1,06,900 1,78,490 2,21,332

Capital expenditures (95,592) (1,84,637) (2,50,826) (1,59,057)

Interest / Dividend Income 1,563 - - -

Others (58,561) 1,05,051 - (2)

Net Cash from Invt. activities (1,52,589) (79,586) (2,50,826) (1,59,059)

Issue of share cap. / premium - 40,072 (177) 229

Debt changes - 18,767 1,29,165 49,599

Dividend paid (54,947) (31,269) (33,271) (38,986)

Interest paid (10,839) (11,857) (12,413) (15,052)

Others 1,13,826 - - -

Net cash from Fin. activities 48,040 15,712 83,304 (4,210)

Net change in cash (13,988) 43,026 10,968 58,064

Free Cash Flow (5,031) (77,737) (72,336) 62,276


Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19

Net Revenue 5,33,252 6,06,164 6,52,393 7,16,967

YoY gr. (%) 19.3 13.2 14.4 25.5

Raw Material Expenses 4,56,201 5,30,337 5,68,326 6,23,230

Gross Profit 77,051 75,827 84,067 93,737

Margin (%) 14.4 12.5 12.9 13.1

EBITDA 35,276 31,882 37,216 38,752

YoY gr. (%) 188.0 (9.6) 16.7 4.1

Margin (%) 6.6 5.3 5.7 5.4

Depreciation / Depletion 6,406 6,774 7,413 7,392

EBIT 28,870 25,108 29,803 31,361

Margin (%) 5.4 4.1 4.6 4.4

Net Interest 2,348 2,002 2,194 3,018

Other Income 8,004 7,274 8,329 5,480

Profit before Tax 34,526 30,380 35,939 33,823

Margin (%) 6.5 5.0 5.5 4.7

Total Tax 10,952 8,943 9,202 10,890

Effective tax rate (%) 31.7 29.4 25.6 32.2

Profit after Tax 23,574 21,437 26,736 22,933

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associates - - - -

Adjusted PAT 23,574 21,437 26,736 22,933

YoY gr. (%) 80.6 (5.6) 45.2 208.0

Margin (%) 4.4 3.5 4.1 3.2

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -

Reported PAT 23,574 21,437 26,736 22,933

YoY gr. (%) 80.6 (5.6) 45.2 208.0

Margin (%) 4.4 3.5 4.1 3.2

Other Comprehensive Income - - - -

Total Comprehensive Income 23,574 21,437 26,736 22,933

Avg. Shares O/s (m) - - - -

EPS (Rs) - - - -


Key Financial Metrics


Per Share(Rs)

EPS 39.5 39.2 48.4 55.5

CEPS 49.2 52.5 63.1 71.3

BVPS 142.1 176.8 207.1 241.7

FCF (2.3) (35.8) (33.3) 28.7

DPS - - - -

Return Ratio(%)

RoCE 20.5 18.3 16.0 15.8

ROIC 11.2 12.3 10.2 10.9

RoE 29.2 24.6 25.2 24.7

Balance Sheet

Net Debt : Equity (x) 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.5

Net Working Capital (Days) 27 (13) (9) (10)

Valuation(x)

PER 9.9 9.9 8.0 7.0

P/B 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.6

P/CEPS 46.4 49.6 59.6 67.3

EV/EBITDA 8.0 6.4 6.8 5.8

EV/Sales 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3

Dividend Yield (%) - - - -


Key Operating Metrics


Crude /bbl 49 58 70 75

US$/Rs 67 65 67 70

GRM (US$/bbl) 5 6 8 8

Refining volume (MTPA) 25 29 31 32

Net subsidy burden (Rs m) 17,831 27,533



August 9, 2018 6

Price Chart Recommendation History

No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)

1 14-Aug-17 BUY 553 479

2 09-Oct-17 BUY 553 489

3 14-Nov-17 BUY 553 493

4 10-Jan-18 BUY 553 496

5 09-Feb-18 BUY 553 475

6 13-Apr-18 BUY 553 405

7 30-May-18 BUY 531 400

8 28-Jun-18 BUY 532 381

9 10-Jul-18 BUY 532 374

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. CompanyName Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)

1 Bharat Petroleum Corporation BUY 532 374

2 GAIL (India) BUY 414 344

3 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation BUY 403 283

4 I.G. Petrochemicals BUY 810 451

5 Indian Oil Corporation BUY 234 155

6 Indraprastha Gas BUY 333 261

7 Mahanagar Gas BUY 1,179 947

8 NOCIL NR - 94

9 Oil & Natural Gas Corporation BUY 223 166

10 Oil India Accumulate 221 209

11 Petronet LNG BUY 300 231

12 Reliance Industries Accumulate 1,152 1,130

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%

Accumulate : 5% to 15%

Hold : +5% to -5%

Reduce : -5% to -15%

Sell : < -15%

Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock

Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

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August 9, 2018 7

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

(Indian Clients)

We/I, Mr. Avishek Datta- MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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Bharat Petroleum Corporation09Aug18 · Bharat Petroleum Corporation August 9, 2018 2 Conference call highlights Kochi refinery full benefits will be evident post maintenance shutdown

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