Beyond recession?: sustainable urban development Tim Dixon: OISD, Oxford Brookes University

Beyond recession?: sustainable urban

development

Tim Dixon: OISD, Oxford Brookes University

Integrated sustainable urban development

“An integrated plan for sustainable urban development comprises a system of interlinked actions which seeks to bring about a lasting improvement in the economic, physical, social and environmental conditions of a city or an area within the city” (URBACT, 2010)

Interacting Forces

“The two defining challenges of the 21st century are overcoming poverty and avoiding dangerous climate change. If we fail on one of them we fail on the other.” (Nicholas Stern)

Economy

Energy Environment

Recovery Matrix (Sato, 2010)Economy (firms and

labour market) Society (People) Place/Environment

Short-terma. Credit b. Recession

Filling the gap in credit for firms (e.g. Lyon – sale and leaseback of land) Bringing forward public investment and expenditure (eg. Spanish Local Authorities)Short term working arrangements (Germany, Duisberg)Subsidising existing jobs and sectors Creating temporary jobs and training (Intermediate Labour Markets (UK), Work Integration Coops (Germany), Type B Coops (Italy)

Debt advice and support. Tax and rate cutsMinimum income supportAdvice and support for housing, heating, transport, basic services.Integration policies. Building resilience and insulation from recession.

Public-public financial instrumentsTake advantage of lower land and property pricesProtect/bring forward key regeneration projectsProtect basic servicesDelay, cut back non essentialsEnvironmental Pilots

Long- term(Positioning the city in the face of long term global shifts)Examples: Transition Cities, Slow Cities, Mayors Covenant, WWF One Planet Living.

Creating the conditions and investing in sustainable activities (e.g. green, health, care, education, knowledge, culture)Training in the skills required for sustainable activities.Support for innovation in these activities

More equalityShifts in consumption and saving patterns Shifts in use of time and work-life balance

Sustainable building, transport, energy, water and waste

Low CarbonEconomy

and Green Jobs

Short Term

Long Term

BRIC-led economic recovery? Economic growth in

BRIC countries Brazil

Structural reforms (fiscal & institutional)

Prospect of 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics

Booming residential sector

Increasing middle class

Infrastructure is poor

0

50

100

150

200

250

Top 8 emerging economy and Top 8 advanced economy cities

% c

umul

ativ

e re

al G

DP

grow

th: 2

008-

25

Source: PwC, 2009

Cumulative GDP Growth2008-2025 (megacities)

City-level carbon emissions and energy consumption

Cities account for about 80% of carbon emissions globally. Consumption and not population growth is important (Satthethwaite) Middle and upper-income households are key

Futures studies – the role of the city (key drivers) Demographics Economic Governance Environmental Societal (lifestyle) Technological

City Scale Focus – why?

Existing powers of municipal and city governments give greater potential traction

Concentration means better technological potential

More rapid diffusion Spin-off benefits (source, Lankao, 2008)

Towards ‘Regenerative Development’

Time

IntegratedSustainability

Business asUsualToday

(Source: adapted from Ministry of Environment, NZ Government)

Eco-Efficiency5+ yrs

RegenerativeDevelopment:

40+ yrs

‘ParadigmShift’

The City as a‘Metabolism’

World Bank Eco2 Programme

City-based approach Expanded platform for

collaborative design and decision-making

One-system approach Investment framework

that values sustainability and resilience

‘Ecological modernization’ issues??

Low Carbon Economy

A future vision for low carbon infrastructure

Need for private investment and balance between public/private debt

Stronger market signals for carbon emissions

UK Core Cities

Public Debt (% of GDP)

UK=68.5%

Brazil=46.8%

Source: CIA

Financing Issues: an Investment Gap?

Cities the problem and the solution? –shift expenditure

Need to develop innovative financing models to retrofit cities: e.g. value capture; PPPs; ‘green’ bonds/funds

More local power and leadership capacity at city-level

Appropriate governance structures

Improved skills and technology deployment

‘BAU’=$350 trillionAdditional $22 trillion needed in greeninvestment (Booz / WWF, 2010)

Key Issues-to 2050? How will property markets in Brazilian cities evolve?

Real estate investment Nature of housing markets and demand: future growth and

development? Issue of brownfields

Ecological modernisation/sustainable urban development – does this model really fit Brazilian cities? How can climate change adaptation and mitigation be

financed? What are the outcomes for cities – governance, institutions

and impact on people? Learning from Brazilian cities?

Clean Development Mechanism Climate Action Plan (Sao Paulo) Others: grants/taxes?