Beyond COVID Business Playbook...•Creative Partnering 39% 35% 46% 25% 36% Strategic Responses #BetterDirectors #WebinarWednesdays #BB@9 Strategic Responses: Everything’s Rosy ET

Beyond COVID

Business Playbook

#BetterDirectors#WebinarWednesdays#BB@9

Introduction

Survey Results

A Scenario Planning Approach

Introduction to the Playbook

Way Forward

Closeout

Agenda


Introduction

Survey Results



Way Forward

Closeout

Agenda


Survey Results: Respondents

Large Business, 17%

Medium-sized Business, 25%

Small to Micro Business, 37%

Public Sector Organisation,

10%

Not for Profit Organisation,

12%


Survey Results: Business Status

Operating with increased capacity, 4% Closed

temporarily, 6%

Closed permanently, 1%

Business as usual, 34%Operating under

reduced capacity, 55%


Survey Results: Business Status

36%

31%30%

29%

35%

3% 2% 1%3%

6%

3%4%

9%

59%

55%

63%

67%

50%

6%

3%5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Large Medium NonProfit

PublicSector

Small toMicro

Large Medium Small toMicro


PublicSector

Small toMicro


PublicSector

Small toMicro

Medium NonProfit

Small toMicro

Business as usual Closed permanently Closed temporarily Operating under reduced capacity Operating with increasedcapacity

Business as Usual Closed TemporarilyOperating with

Increased CapacityClosed

PermanentlyOperating Under Reduced

Capacity


Survey Results: Revenue Impact

21%

13%

37%

22%

6%

2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

More than50% lower

Up to 50%lower

Up to 20%lower

No change Up to 20%higher

More than20% higher


Survey Results: Revenue Impact

5%

13%

27%

10%8%

19%

7%

20%

43%

38%

47%

50%

38%

25%

13%

8% 6% 7%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Fin

anci

al S

ervi

ces

ICT

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Ret

ail

Fin

anci

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ervi

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ICT

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g

Ret

ail

Fin

anci

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ervi

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ICT

Man

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Ret

ail

Fin

anci

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ervi

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ICT

Man

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g

Fin

anci

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ervi

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ICT

Man

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ctu

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g

Ret

ail

More than 50% lower Up to 50% lower Up to 20% lower No change Up to 20% higherMore than 50% Lower Up to 20% Lower Up to 20% HigherUp to 50% Lower No Change


Survey Results: Outlook

1%

26%

56%

14%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Less than 1 year 1 year to 2 years 3 to 5 years 6 years to 10years

More than 10years


Agenda

Introduction

Survey Results



Way Forward

Closeout


The processfor thinking the

future



The 6 Giants


The 5 Elements of Strategic Thinking

Global

Recession

New Balls PleaseHard Times

Forked Lightning UV

Continued

Global

Growth

One World

Divided World

Rapid uptake of

new technology

Covid-19

camel’s

straw

Collaborative global view through WHO,

UN and others

Economic

collapse/strainNo global view, each country for themselves -increased protectionism and geopolitical tension

Global Scenarios AC

• Duration of lockdown phases

• Degree of collaboration between business and government

• Quality of communication from the government

• Degree of collaboration between political parties

Economic

Climate

Negative

Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrikaSolidarity Fund

Freefall Mind the Gap

Economic

Climate

Positive

Social Cohesion High

Social Cohesion Low

Current

Position [V or U][L] [W]

South African Scenarios AC – next 18 months: Flags

• Tourism and leisure

• Aviation and maritime

• Automotive

• Construction and real estate

• Manufacturing (non essential)

• Financial services

• Education

• Oil and gas

• Agriculture

• e-Commerce

• ICT

• Personal and healthcare

• Food processing and retail (essentials)

• Medical supply and services

Industries impacted by Covid-19


Agenda

Introduction

Survey Results



Way Forward

Closeout


The Beyond COVID Playbook

“a set of rules or suggestions that are considered to be suitable for a particular activity, industry, or job”

[Cambridge Dictionary]

“1 : one or more plays in book form

2 : a notebook containing diagrammed football plays”

[Mirriam Webster Dictionary]


The Beyond COVID Playbook

Impact Response


Impacts

Macro Environment Micro Environment

Number of Cases

Healthcare Capacity

Govt. Restrictions

Govt. Response

Deaths

People Needs

People Behaviours

Business Circumstances

Business Climate

SocialClimate

Demand

Staff Availability

Access to Inputs

Access to Cash


Locating the Impacts

MA

RK

ET

CH

AN

NE

LO

FF

ER

ING

YO

UR

OR

GA

NIS

AT

ION

SU

PP

LY

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT E

NA

BL

EM

EN

T

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

Business Clients

Consumers

Retailers

Merchandisers

Wholesalers Logi

stic

s

Direct

Product

Price Service

Vision/ Strategy/ Goals

Capital

Physical Footprint/ Infrastructure

People SystemsOperations

USP

Suppliers of Goods

Suppliers of Services Industry

Associations

Professional Bodies

Go

vt.

Lab

ou

r

….


Impact: DemandBusiness Model

Impact Driver

MA

RK

ET

CH

AN

NE

LO

FF

ER

ING

YO

UR

OR

GA

NIS

AT

ION

Business Clients

Consumers

Retailers

Merchandisers

Wholesalers

Logi

stic

s

Direct

Product

Price Service


Capital



USP

SU

PP

LY

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT E

NA

BL

EM

EN

T

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

Suppliers of Goods

Suppliers of Services Industry

Associations

Professional Bodies

Go

vt.

Lab

ou

r

….

De

man

d

Consumer Buying Behaviours

ConsumerIncome

Consumer Needs

OrganisationNeeds

OrganisationCashflow


Impact: Employee Availability

MA

RK

E

T

CH

AN

NE

LO

FF

ER

ING

YO

UR

OR

GA

NIS

AT

ION

Business Clients

Consumers

Retailers

Merchandisers

Wholesalers

Logi

stic

s

Direct

Product

Price Service


Capital



USP

SU

PP

LY

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT E

NA

BL

EM

EN

T

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

Suppliers of Goods

Suppliers of Services

Industry Associations

Professional Bodies

Go

vt.

Lab

ou

r

….

Leaves of Absence/ Death

Retrenchments

Government Restrictions

Workplace Infections

Business Closures

Emp

loye

e A

vaila

bili

ty

Business ModelImpact Driver


Impacts

Macro Environment Micro Environment

Number of Cases

Healthcare Capacity

Govt. Restrictions

Govt. Response

Deaths

People Needs

People Behaviours

Business Circumstances

Business Climate

SocialClimate

Demand

Staff Availability

Access to Inputs

Access to Cash


Drivers of Impact

- +

Demand

Capacity

+

-

• Availability of Your Employees• Your Access to Inputs• Your Access to Cash

Demand for YourProducts &

Services


Impact Scenarios

Demand for Your Products & Services

Your Capacity

Everything’s Rosy

MissedOpportunities

DarkClouds

All DressedUp

#BetterDirectors#WebinarWednesdays#BB@9 Demand for Your Products & Services

Your Capacity

Everything’s Rosy

MissedOpportunities

Dark Clouds

AllDressed Up

Organisation Level Impact Scenarios


Product Level Impact Scenarios

Demand for Your Products & Services

Your Capacity

Everything’s Rosy

MissedOpportunities

DarkClouds

AllDressed Up


Large MediumSmall to

MicroPublic Sector

Not for Profit

Growth

• Product Diversification 48% 34% 55% 20% 39%

• Market Diversification 42% 23% 47% 20% 29%

• Acquisition 9% 15% 3% 4%

Alternative Distribution

• eCommerce 42% 24% 26% 20% 25%

Rationalisation

• Cost Reduction 67% 74% 45% 35% 50%

• Business Rationalisation 18% 27% 17% 5% 7%

Unconventional

• Dynamic Capacity Planning 33% 15% 10% 20% 18%

• Creative Partnering 39% 35% 46% 25% 36%

Strategic Responses


Strategic Responses: Everything’s Rosy

MA

RK

ET

CH

AN

NE

LO

FF

ER

ING

YO

UR

OR

GA

NIS

AT

ION

Business Clients Consumers

Retailers

Merchandisers

Wholesalers

Logi

stic

s

Direct

Product

Price Service


Capital



USP

SU

PP

LY

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT E

NA

BL

EM

EN

T

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

Suppliers of Goods



Professional Bodies

Go

vt.

Lab

ou

r

….

• Market Research (27%)

• Market Diversification (27%)

• Customer Analysis (18%)

• Product Diversification (36%)



MA

RK

ET

CH

AN

NE

LO

FF

ER

ING

YO

UR

OR

GA

NIS

AT

ION

Business Clients

Consumers

Retailers

Merchandisers

Wholesalers

Logi

stic

s

Direct

Product

Price Service


Capital



USP

SU

PP

LY

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT E

NA

BL

EM

EN

T

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

Suppliers of Goods



Professional Bodies

Go

vt.

Lab

ou

r

….

• Remote working optimisation (45%)

• Organisational restructure (27%)

• COVID19-specific OHS (18%)

• Dynamic Capacity Planning (45%)

• Cost Reduction (45%)



MA

RK

ET

CH

AN

NE

LO

FF

ER

ING

YO

UR

OR

GA

NIS

AT

ION

Business Clients

Consumers

Retailers

Merchandisers

Wholesalers

Logi

stic

s

Direct

Product

Price Service


Capital



USP

SU

PP

LY

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT E

NA

BL

EM

EN

T

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

Suppliers of Goods



Professional Bodies

Go

vt.

Lab

ou

r

….

• Competitive Research (18%)

• Creative Partnering (36%)


Strategic Choices

The Easier Choices• Remote Working vs. @theOffice

• Pause/Speed up the Strategy

The Defining Strategic Choices• Wait and See

• Crystal Gazing

• Horses for Courses

• One-size Fits Me


Way Forward

ww

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nd

CO

VID

.co

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How to Contribute?

• The Beyond COVID Survey

• Beyond COVID Interviews

• Beyond COVID Think Tank

Resources for Strategic Scenario-based Planning?

• The Beyond COVID Playbook

• Sector/ organisation-specific Insights

• Starting the Strategic Conversation


Q&A Session


Thank you for joining us for today's webinar.

Lings Naidoo via LinkedIn or [email protected]

Chantell Ilbury via LinkedIn or [email protected]

Please complete the IoDSA Event Satisfaction Survey at the end of this webinar or from the QR code here:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lings-naidoo-47734916/

mailto:[email protected]

https://www.linkedin.com/in/chantell-ilbury-50880910/

mailto:[email protected]

Beyond COVID Business Playbook...•Creative Partnering 39% 35% 46% 25% 36% Strategic Responses #BetterDirectors #WebinarWednesdays #BB@9 Strategic Responses: Everything’s Rosy ET

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