Beyond Corn and Soybeans: Beyond Corn and Soybeans: Cellulose Feedstocks Cellulose Feedstocks Marie E. Walsh, Burt English, Marie E. Walsh, Burt English, Daniel de la Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la Torre Ugarte, Chad Hellwinckel, Jamey Chad Hellwinckel, Jamey Menard, Kim Jensen, and Menard, Kim Jensen, and Richard Nelson Richard Nelson USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Washington, DC Washington, DC February 21-22, 2008 February 21-22, 2008 M & E Biomass Oak Ridge, TN
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Beyond Corn and Soybeans: Cellulose Feedstocks Marie E. Walsh, Burt English, Daniel de la Torre Ugarte, Chad Hellwinckel, Jamey Menard, Kim Jensen, and.
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Beyond Corn and Soybeans: Beyond Corn and Soybeans: Cellulose FeedstocksCellulose Feedstocks
Marie E. Walsh, Burt English, Marie E. Walsh, Burt English, Daniel de la Torre Ugarte, Chad Daniel de la Torre Ugarte, Chad Hellwinckel, Jamey Menard, Kim Hellwinckel, Jamey Menard, Kim
Jensen, and Richard NelsonJensen, and Richard Nelson
USDA Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA Agricultural Outlook Forum
– Collection costs, equivalent profits--Collection costs, equivalent profits--added incentives needed to encourage added incentives needed to encourage changes in existing practices and are changes in existing practices and are not includednot included
– Transportation costs not includedTransportation costs not included ImplicationsImplications
Planted crops/crop residues from non-Planted crops/crop residues from non-forested ag land forested ag land cleared/cultivated/managed prior to cleared/cultivated/managed prior to passage of billpassage of bill
Planted trees/tree residues from actively Planted trees/tree residues from actively managed tree plantationsmanaged tree plantations
Slash/pre-commercial thinnings from non-Slash/pre-commercial thinnings from non-federal forestlandsfederal forestlands
Separated yard waste/food wastesSeparated yard waste/food wastes Biomass from immediate vicinity of Biomass from immediate vicinity of
occupied buildings at risk from wildfiresoccupied buildings at risk from wildfires Animal wastes/byproductsAnimal wastes/byproducts AlgaeAlgae
Ag residues play crucial role in controlling erosion Ag residues play crucial role in controlling erosion and maintaining health and long term productivity and maintaining health and long term productivity of soilof soil
Quantities that must be left are a function of soil Quantities that must be left are a function of soil type and topography, climate, crop rotation and type and topography, climate, crop rotation and management practices, particularly tillagemanagement practices, particularly tillage
Available Corn Stover Quantities—2005 (million dry tons)100% No-Till
Erosion Erosion/Carbon
Continuous Corn Rotation 228 173
Corn-Soybean Rotation 195 154
Current Mix of Tillage Practices
Erosion Erosion/Carbon
Continuous Corn Rotation 141 102
Corn-Soybean Rotation 128 80
Crop Residues (Corn Stover and Wheat Crop Residues (Corn Stover and Wheat Straw)Straw)
Costs of Available Crop Residues (million dry tons)*Costs of Available Crop Residues (million dry tons)*
More restrictive than earlier versionsMore restrictive than earlier versions Significant cellulose feedstock quantitiesSignificant cellulose feedstock quantities
– Not as much nor as cheap as some thinkNot as much nor as cheap as some think Feedstock type differs by geographic regionFeedstock type differs by geographic region
– Supply logistics will vary due to differences in Supply logistics will vary due to differences in farm scale, ownership, infrastructure, regulatory farm scale, ownership, infrastructure, regulatory and tax considerations, etc.and tax considerations, etc.
Available residues quantities marginal for Available residues quantities marginal for existing RFA and may be insufficient to existing RFA and may be insufficient to support higher demand levelssupport higher demand levels– Energy cropsEnergy crops– Expanded role for forestry?Expanded role for forestry?
Feedstock DistributionFeedstock Distribution Under existing conditions, concentration of Under existing conditions, concentration of
feedstocks in many areas is insufficient to feedstocks in many areas is insufficient to economically support large facilities (> economically support large facilities (> 2000 dMt/day), especially when feedstock 2000 dMt/day), especially when feedstock supply variability, supplier participation supply variability, supplier participation levels, infrastructure, and order of plant levels, infrastructure, and order of plant construction (1construction (1stst vs. 10 vs. 10thth) are considered ) are considered
Collection and Transportation Costs of Corn Stover--First 20 Iowa Ethanol
Plants (100% Availability)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20
Plant Number
Co
st
($/d
t)
500 MT/day 2000 Mt/day
Collection and Transportation Costs of Corn Stover--First 10 Iowa Ethanol Plants
(50% Availability)
01020304050
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Plant Number
Co
st
($/d
t)
500 MT/day 2000 MT/day
Feedstock DistributionFeedstock Distribution
Increase feedstock development investmentsIncrease feedstock development investments Develop smaller scale conversion processes Develop smaller scale conversion processes
(<1000 dMt/day)(<1000 dMt/day) Small distributed vs. large centralized systemsSmall distributed vs. large centralized systems
Less pressure on feedstocks and other resourcesLess pressure on feedstocks and other resources Energy security (terrorism)Energy security (terrorism) Production reliability (Hurricane Katrina)Production reliability (Hurricane Katrina) Economic development (higher with more small plants)Economic development (higher with more small plants)
Develop processes to use multiple Develop processes to use multiple feedstocksfeedstocks Synergies on the feedstock side that might offset higher Synergies on the feedstock side that might offset higher
conversion costsconversion costs Flexibility/adaptability in a highly uncertain and volatile Flexibility/adaptability in a highly uncertain and volatile
environmentenvironment
Near Term NeedsNear Term Needs Develop infrastructure to permit rapid scale-Develop infrastructure to permit rapid scale-
up of energy crop productionup of energy crop production Develop minimal guidelines for residue Develop minimal guidelines for residue
removalremoval Conduct analysis that recognizes not only Conduct analysis that recognizes not only
food, feed, and fiber needs, but also the food, feed, and fiber needs, but also the simultaneous development of multiple simultaneous development of multiple biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts using biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts using multiple feedstocksmultiple feedstocks– Geographically disaggregatedGeographically disaggregated– Systems approachSystems approach– StochasticStochastic