1 Bevorzugter Zitierstil Axhausen, K.W. (2011) Social networks and travel: Current status and expected change, Workshop Behaviour in Networks, University of Seoul, June 2011.
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1
Bevorzugter Zitierstil!
!!!!Axhausen, K.W. (2011) Social networks and travel: Current status
and expected change, Workshop Behaviour in Networks, University of Seoul, June 2011. !
Social networks and travel: Current status and expected change!
KW Axhausen IVT ETH Zürich June 2011
FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY
FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY
FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY
FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY
FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY
FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY
FUTURE CITIES!LABORATORY
Acknowledgements
• Timo Ohnmacht • Andreas Frei • Jeremy Hackney • Matthias Kowald
• Andreas Horni
• Jonas Larson • John Urry
3
4
What are the questions ?
5
Productivity and population growth in Western Europe
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Jahr
Wac
hstu
m [%
/Jah
r]
ProduktivitätBevölkerung
Gal
or u
nd W
eil (
2000
), Fi
gure
1
6
Quality-adjusted price of a new car in Switzerland
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Jahr
Qua
lität
sber
eini
gter
Pre
isin
dex
(200
4 =
100)
[%]
Frei, 2004Raff und Trajtenberg, 1990
Frei
, 200
5
7
Price of telecommunication A
dapt
ed fr
om F
CC
(20
01)
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
Inde
x [1
995
= 10
0]
US International and interstate averagerevenue per minute
8
A shrinking world
Coach and sailing boat until 1840
Steam ship and locomotive, 1840 - 1930
Propeller aircraft, 1930-1950
Jets, from 1950 DIc
ken,
199
8!
Stunde 1 9
Shrinking “road” – Switzerland (1950) S
cher
er, 2
004
Stunde 1 10
Shrinking “road” Switzerland (2000) S
cher
er, 2
004
11
Swiss commuter catchment areas since 1970 A
dapt
ed fr
om B
otte
, 200
3
12
Trip purpose distributions (ca. 2005)
Share of kilometers traveled [%]
Switzer-land
Germany UK USA
Leisure 44.8 38.3 33.7 32.2 Work/School 35.0 29.7 32.0 31.3 Shopping/Privat business 11.2 21.7 19.7 27.6 Escort 4.9 4.5 7.6 8.5 Others 1.8 4.8 7.1 0.5 Total
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
13
Social leisure ! (2003 Thurgau 6-week diary)
Short vacationExcursion: nature
OtherExcursion: culture
Meeting friendsFurther education (leisure)
Garden/ cottageVoluntary work
Disco, pub, restaurant, cinemaMeeting relatives/family
Window shoppingPick up/drop off/attendance
Group/club meetingFamily duty
CemeteryActive sports
EducationLong-term shopping
Walk or strollDaily shopping
Private businessPrivate business (doctor,...
Work
3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0
Mean
Dog travelling alongOther persons travelling alongHousehold members travelling along
14
Theoretical starting point
15
(Moving) actors in social/physical networks
Personal world
Biography
Projects Learning
Personal worlds of
others
Social captial: stock of joint
abilities
Household locations Social network geography Mobility tools
16
Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice
Resi
denc
e
17
Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice!
Logi
cal d
estin
atio
n
Resi
denc
e
18
Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice!
Logi
cal d
estin
atio
n
Resi
denc
e
Choi
ce
19
Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice!
Logi
cal d
estin
atio
n
Resi
denc
e
Choi
ce
Resi
denc
e
Resi
denc
e
20
Example social network geography
Female, 28, 4 residential
moves
Ohn
mac
ht, 2
004
21
Network structures Ill
enbe
rger
, Kow
ald,
Axh
ause
n an
d N
agel
, 201
1
22
Dynamics of personal space use and speed
Wages!Fleet!comfort!Housing!consumption!!vtts et al.!
Activities!
Specialisation!
k!
vkm!
pkm!Tours! +!+!
+!+!
+!
+!+!
+!+!
+!+!+!
+!
-!
-! -!
+!
-!Energy !
+!
+!-!
Elasticity > 0 !Elasticity < 0!
+!-!
Migration!+!
+!
Professional and!personal activity space!
Network!geography!Number!
of networks!
Network!overlap!
Local !anomie!
-!
+!
+!-!
-! -!-!-!
23
Empirical results from Switzerland and the UK
24
Biography of an architect in his early thirties La
rsen
, Axh
ause
n an
d U
rry,
200
6
25
Number of contacts reported
Bars show percents
0 10 20 30 40 50
Number of contacts named
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Per
cent
Frei
and
Axh
ause
n, 2
005
26
Distances between home locations Fr
ei a
nd A
xhau
sen,
200
5
27
Size of network geometries
95%-confidence ellipse of the social network geography
1.E10
1.E91.E81.E71.E61.E51.E41.E31.E21.E11.E0
Perc
ent
40
30
20
10
0
Frei
and
Axh
ause
n, 2
005
28
Interactions by mode and distance between homes
10000.001000.00100.0010.001.000.001
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
SMS messages/year Great circle distance [km]
Email messages/year Great circle distance [km]
Phone calls/year Great circle distance [km]
Face-to-face visits/year Great circle distance [km]
Great circle distance (km)
10000.001000.00100.0010.001.000.001
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
SMS messages/year Great circle distance [km]
Email messages/year Great circle distance [km]
Phone calls/year Great circle distance [km]
Face-to-face visits/year Great circle distance [km]
Great circle distance (km)
Frei
and
Axh
ause
n, 2
005
29
First computational experiments
30
Horni: Agent and facility specific error terms
Very High-Resolution Destination Choice in Agent-Based Demand Models August 2011
Figure 5: Zurich Scenario: Iteration 100 (relaxed state)
(a) Shopping Trips
(b) Leisure Trips
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 12 13 14 15
Distance [km] (discrete)
p
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
●
●
●
●● ●
●● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
● ●● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
MicrocensusZH with error termZH without error term
32
Hoi
rni ,
201
1
31
Frei: Geocoded network of friends on a random plane
[km] Criteria for network generation Degree Closeness Betweenness b2/b3 Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
4 10.4 6.2 12.6 6.3 11.1 6.1 3 8.6 5.8 9.8 5.9 9.0 5.8 2 7.0 5.4 7.6 5.5 7.2 5.3 1 5.6 5.3 6.4 5.3 6.1 5.2
0.5 4.6 4.3 5.1 4.4 4.9 4.3 0.33 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2
!
Frei
, 20
11
32
What do we want to look at ?
33
Range of future modelling
Wages!Fleet!comfort!Housing!consumption!!vtts et al.!
Activities!
Specialisation!
k!
vkm!
pkm!Tours! +!+!
+!+!
+!
+!+!
+!+!
+!+!+!
+!
-!
-! -!
+!
-!Energy !
+!
+!-!
Elasticity > 0 !Elasticity < 0!
+!-!
Migration!+!
+!
Professional and!personal activity space!
Network!geography!Number!
of networks!
Network!overlap!
Local !anomie!
-!
+!
+!-!
-! -!-!-!
34
Create degree, clustering and distances ! Ill
enbe
rger
, Kow
ald,
Axh
ause
n an
d N
agel
, 201
1
35
New equilibrium search in MATSim
Simulation of competition on net- works and facilities
k(t,r,j)i,n
qi ≡ (t,r,j)i,n
Joh-style score (utility) calculation
Initial schedules
(Optimal) replanning (inc. connection)
Ui(t,r,j)i,n
36
Activity scheduling with best response & random modules
• Number and type of activities • Sequence of activities
• Start and duration of activity • Composition of the group undertaking the activity • Expenditure division • Location of the activity (including all participants’ generalised
costs)
• Movement between sequential locations
• Location of access and egress from the mean of transport • Parking type and location
• Vehicle/means of transport • Route/service • Group travelling together • Expenditure division
36
37
More information at
www.ivt.ethz.ch www.matsim.org
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