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ericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002 http://www.johannesburgsummit.org i: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf
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Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002 Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

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Page 1: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development,

Johannesburg, 2002

http://www.johannesburgsummit.orgDatei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf

Page 2: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.
Page 3: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

1. Population, Poverty and Inequality

2. Food and Agriculture

3. Fresh Water

4. Forests ( Biodiversity )

5. Health and Hygiene6. Energy and Climate (siehe Datei V00neu_Energie_Klimawandel.ppt)

Page 4: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

1. Population, Poverty and Inequality

Page 5: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.4

Page 6: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.4

Population Density

Page 7: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.5

Page 8: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.6

Page 9: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.6

Income poverty is declining in Asia and Latin America

• Definition of „poverty“ is based on an income threshold of $1 per day

• In the 1990s, the poverty rate in developing countries declined from 29 % of the population to 23 % the total number of people (world) living in poverty declined slightly from about 1.3 billion to 1.2 billion.• The poverty rate is highest in sub-Saharan Africa (almost 50% of the population).

• A large majority of the world’s people living in poverty are in Asia, particularly in rural areas.

• Most of the decline in the poverty rate in the 1990s has been in East Asia.

Page 10: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p6

Page 11: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 6

Hunger is slowly declining in all regions

• Today, almost 800 million people in developing countries are chronically undernourished, since 1990: a reduction of over 40 million since 1970: a significant reduction of over 150 million • During the 1990s, hunger declined in all regions, even where per capita income fell,

due in part to increasing global food production and declining trend in food prices.

• Millenium Declaration Goal: halving, by 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Regional trends indicate that East Asia and Latin America are on track

while sub-Saharan Africa is falling well short of the goal .

Page 12: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.7

Inequality is an obstacle to sustainable development

Page 13: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p7

Standard of living:

Asian countries reduced the gap in standards of living with developed countries

through: rapid economic growth and a decline in the rate of population growth.

Page 14: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

2. Food and Agriculture

Page 15: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.8

Food production and consumption are increasing

• projected (2030) in developing countries : increasing in food production and imports.

• Declining food prices

have generally benefited consumers and improved nutrition,

even in countries where incomes have declined.

Page 16: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.8

Potential to expand crop production is limited

Page 17: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.8

Potential to expand crop production is limited

• About 11 per cent of the world’s land surface is used in crop production, including cultivated land and land under permanent crops.

• In South Asia, East Asia and Europe, most land is already used for agriculture and there is little scope for expansion in agricultural land or in irrigation.

• In developing Asia, increasing demand for food resulting from economic development and population growth will need to be met by increasing yields with existing water resources and by increasing imports.

• In West Asia and North Africa, increasing agricultural production is constrained by limited water resources, and imports are expected to increase to meet growing demand.

• In Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, there is still potential for expansion of agricultural land as well as for increased productivity.

Page 18: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.9

Agricultural trade is increasing:

Page 19: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p.9

Agricultural trade is increasing:

• In most of the developing world, food imports have been growing, as demand has increased faster than production. Net imports of grain in developing regions increased from 39 [Mt] of grain in the mid-1970s to 107 [Mt] in the mid-1990s,

or from 4 % of their total grain consumption to 10 %.

The historical developing country surplus in agricultural trade has recently turned into a deficit of 2.5 G$ .

• The agricultural trade deficit of developing countries is expected to increase as consumption continues to grow more rapidly than production. • The greatest increase in imports is expected in countries where there is little unused agricultural land or water resources, articular, North Africa, West Asia and East Asia.

• It is expected that the growing demand for imports can be met by increased production and exports from developed country exporters, in particular North America and the European Union.

Page 20: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p10

3. Fresh Water

Page 21: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p10

Agriculture dominates global water use:

Page 22: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p10

Industrial water use increases with development:

Page 23: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p10

Aquaculture is expanding to meet growing demand for fish

Page 24: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p10

Nearly half of the world‘s people will experiencewater shortages by 2025

Page 25: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

4. Forests ( Biodiversity )

Page 26: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

World’s forested area continues to decline:

Page 27: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

Agricultural expansion is the main cause of deforestation Change in Tropical Forest

fallow =Bracheshrub = Strauch, Busch

Page 28: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p13

Protected areas are increasing in all regions

Page 29: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p18

5. Health and Hygiene

Page 30: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p18

Communicable= übertragbar, amsteckend

Most deaths in the least developed countries are readily preventable

Page 31: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p18

.

In sub-Saharan Africa and the least developed countries, disease and death—often in childhood— mainly due to communicable, environment-related diseases.

Most common are :• diarrhoeal diseases due to lack of clean water and sanitation facilities, and• respiratory infections due to indoor air pollution.

These diseases are readily preventable through simple and inexpensive

technologies.

Most deaths in the least developed countries are readily preventable

In developed countries, illness and death are primarily due to non-communicable diseases, especially heart disease and cancer, which strike primarily in old age

Page 32: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

**5_1 Health and Water

Page 33: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

**5_1 Health and Water

1 GPeople still lack access to safe water

Page 34: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p18

xx5_1 Health and Water

1 GPeople still lack access to safe water

2,5 GPeople still lack adequate sanitation facilities

( mostly in rural Asia and Africa )

Improved access to safe water improves health, particularly for children.

and gives more time and energy for more productive purposes including education.

In rural Asia and Africa, women on average

walk about 6 km for water.

Page 35: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

xx5_1 Health and Water

Page 36: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

xx5_1 Health and Water

During the 1990s, in Africa, Asia and Latin America,

some 15 G$ /a was invested water supply and sanitation:

over 12 G$/a was invested in drinking water supply, and about 3 G$/a in sanitation.

The investments were largely concentrated in urban areas,although the great majority of people without access to safe drinking water live in rural areas.

Investment in Water Supply:

Page 37: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p19

Progress is being made towards targets

Page 38: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p19

1. Goal : 50 per cent reduction in child mortality due to diarrhoeal diseases, (adopted in 1990 at World Summit for Children)

The number of children under five who die each year from diarrhoeal diseases due to contaminated water and food, poor hygiene and inadequate sanitation is estimated to have fallen from 4.6 million in 1980 to 3.3 million in 1990 and 1.7 million in 1999.

Contributing factors for achieving this goal have been: better water supply and sanitation, increasing use of oral rehydration therapy (ort), and better nutrition, including breastfeeding of infants.

Progress is being made towards targets:

2. Goal : The General Assembly, in its Millennium Declaration, resolved

to halve, by the year 2015,

the proportion of people who are unable to reach or to afford

safe drinking water.

Page 39: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p19

Malaria - the main water related illness

Page 40: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

xx5_1 Health and Water

Malaria is increasing in Africa

• About 300 million people suffer each year from acute malaria.

• About 1 million people die each year of malaria, mostly children in Africa.

• Malaria deaths in Africa have been rising since the 1980s primarily due to the declining effectiveness of the anti-malarial medication chloroquine. In addition, development of dams and irrigation systems, deforestation and global warming

are favouring the development and spread of malaria-carrying mosquitoes.

• Malaria is estimated to reduce the economic growth of African countries by more than -1 % /a , amounting to economic losses of about 12 G$12 /a.

Page 41: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p5

Zum Vergleich:

Aids is undermining development in Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa :

Aids is now , • by far the leading cause of death • reducing life expectancy by 15 a, to 47 years.

• predominantly strikes young adults, leaving millions of orphans.

Economic growth in the countries most affected may be reduced by 1–2 % or more.

Page 42: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution

Page 43: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p20

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution

Indoor air pollution is a major killer

A great majority of the deaths are among children in developing countries who die of acute respiratory infections.

Page 44: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution

More than 3 million deaths each year are caused by air pollution, mostly due to particulate matter.A great majority of the deaths are among children in developing countries .

Children die of acute respiratory infections due to

indoor air pollution resulting from burning fuelwood, crop residues or animal dung

for cooking and heating.

Yet most pollution control efforts and expenditures address outdoor air pollution in developed countries.

Page 45: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution

Increase of air pollutionin the early phase ofindustrialisation

Page 46: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution

• Cities in the early phases of industrialization and urbanization

experience increases in air pollution largely as a result of fossil fuel combustion by industry and motor vehicles

without emissions controls.

• Currently, in most large cities in the developing world, airborne particulate levels are five times higher than in developed countries.

• As standards of living increase, improving air quality becomes a priority, and emission control measures are established and enforced,

bringing down levels of particulates and sulphur dioxide (SO2).

Page 47: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p12

Population: www.un.org/population www.un.org/popin.

Poverty: www.worldbank.org/poverty www.ifad.org.(International Fund for Agricultural Development) www.unicef.org. www.undp.org (Human Development Report)

Food, Agriculture, Forests and Fisheries: www.fao.org (Food and Agriculture Organization=FAO )

Freshwater:www.worldwatercouncil.org/vision.shtml.

Internet Quellen

Energy and Climate: www.eia.doe.gov United States Energy Information Administration doe= Department of Energy www.ipcc.ch

Health: www.who.int www.unaids.org.

Environment and Natural Resources: www.unep.org www.wri.org (World resources Institute)

Page 48: Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002  Datei: WS2002_criticaltrends_1408.pdf.

http://www.johannesburgsummit.org