© IEA 2013 Moving on from Warsaw: Some IEA work Philippe Benoit Head of Energy Efficiency & Environment (Climate) Division, IEA CCXG Global Forum Paris, 19 March, 2014
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Moving on from Warsaw: Some IEA work
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© IEA 2013
Moving on from Warsaw: Some IEA work
Philippe BenoitHead of Energy Efficiency & Environment (Climate) Division, IEA
CCXG Global ForumParis, 19 March, 2014
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. IEA’s 4-for-2
2. …
3. …
4. …
5. …
IEA CC work. . .
© OECD/IEA 2013
Four measures can stop emissions growth by 2020
Emissions savings in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, 2020
Four measures can stop the growth in emissions by 2020 at no net economic cost, reducing emissions by 3.1 Gt, 80% of the savings required for a 2 °C path
4-for-2°C Scenariodelivers savings of
3.1 Gt CO2-eq49%
21%
18%
12% Implement selected energy efficiency
policies
Limit use of inefficient coal power plants
Reduce methane releases from upstream
oil and gas
Partial removal of fossil-fuel subsidies
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. …
2. Fighting lock-in: “unlocking”
3. …
4. …
5. …
IEA CC work. . .
© OECD/IEA 2012
Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Room to manoeuvre
“Lock-In” of 2 degree Emissions
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
2 °C trajectory
Lock-in of existinginfrastructure
35
Room to manoeuvre
© OECD/IEA 2012
Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Room to manoeuvre
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
2 °C trajectory
Lock-in of existinginfrastructure
2017
Planned fossil fuel infrastructure through 2017 will generate all energy emissions under 2DS through 2035
35
“Lock-In” of 2 degree Emissions
© OECD/IEA 2012
“Early retirement” (e.g., decommissioning)
Fuel switching (changing dispatch rather than energy mix)
Carbon Capture and Storage
Remove fossil fuel subsidies
Keys to ‘un-lock’ energy emissions include:
‘Un-locking’ strategies
© OECD/IEA 2012
Market mechanisms ETS Carbon taxing
Mandates – portfolio prescriptions /restrictions
Non-climate regulations, etc.
Policy directives (e.g. to state-owned enterprises)
Influencing relative pricing
Possible Policy tools to unlock:
‘Un-locking’ Policies
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. …
2. …
3. Pollution-Climate Nexus: Challenges and opportunities for the energy sector
4. …
5. …
IEA CC work. . .
© OECD/IEA 2014
The Pollution/CC mitigation nexus
US Clean Air Act regulations
China air quality goals
Other countries . . .
Can pollution considerations/tools affect Contributions . . .
© OECD/IEA 2012 Credit: Patrick Kovarik AFPMarch 11, 2014
Dirty air prompts free public transport in ParisPublic transportation in the capital will be "gratuit" from Friday morning to Sunday night, as officials battle against a spike in "dangerously" poor air quality. Velib' rental bikes and the car-sharing Autolib' scheme are also on the house.
First step to ‘un-locking’?
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. …
2. …
3. …
4. Resilience challenge for the Energy Sector
5. …
IEA CC work. . .
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2014
Irreversible climate change necessitates adaptive measures in the energy sector
Resilience and Mitigation:Energy Sector Resilience an issue in all scenarios
2030
Source: 2013 IPCC AR5 (WGI) Summary for Policymakers.
© OECD/IEA 2014
The Nexus Forum meetings
Three meetings have been held to date• 1st Forum: Implications for Business (Nov 2012)• 2nd Forum: Cities and Insurance (June 2013) • 3rd Forum: Electricity Sector Resilience (October 2013)
Upcoming Nexus Forum meetings• 4th Forum: Climate Change, Water & Energy (June 2014,
WBCSD, Geneva) • 5th Forum: Resilience Policies and Practices (November
2014, IEA, Paris)??
© OECD/IEA 2014
Overarching/cross-cutting messages
1. Strengthen government leadership on energy resilience
2. Improve analytical base for resilience planning
3. Increase public-private cooperation and collaboration on energy resilience
© OECD/IEA 2014
The IEA’s Nexus Forum workstream
i. Dialogue facilitation
ii. Policy information collection and dissemination
iii. Data and modelling
iv. Research stocktaking regarding impacts vulnerability, and resilience policies
v. Policy development
© OECD/IEA 2014
Showcasing major emerging studies
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. …
2. …
3. …
4. …
5. ADP Technical Experts Meeting on Energy Efficiency
IEA CC work. . .
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2)
Emissions with 6DS
Emissions with 2DS
Portfolio of decarbonising measures
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuclear 8%
End-use fuel switching12%
CCS 14%
Renewables 21%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3%
End-use fuel and electricityefficiency 42%
Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2)
Portfolio of decarbonising measures
Emissions with 6DS
Emissions with 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3%
End-use fuel and electricityefficiency 42%
Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2)
Emissions with 6DS
Emissions with 2DS
Portfolio of decarbonising measures
A major role for Energy Efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mckensey&Company: Impact of the financial crisis on carbon economics
EE: often a ‘no-regrets’ investment
© OECD/IEA 2012
Market failures impede EE investment
Imperfect Information
Asymmetric Information•Moral Hazard•Adverse Selection
Split Incentives
Principal-Agent Problems•Moral Hazard•Split Incentives
Energy Market Failures
(Externalities)
Behavioural Failures (Bounded
Rationality)
Financing
© OECD/IEA 2012
Cross-sectoral1. Energy efficiency data collection and indicators2. Strategies and action plans3. Competitive energy markets with appropriate
regulation4. Private investment in energy efficiency5. Monitoring, enforcement and evaluation of policies
and measures
Buildings6. Mandatory building energy codes and minimum
energy performance requirements;7. Aiming for net zero energy consumption in buildings8. Improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings9. Building energy labels or certificates10. Improved energy performance of building
components and systems
Appliances and Equipment11. Mandatory MEPS and labels for appliances and
equipment12. Test standards and measurement protocols for
appliances and equipment13. Market transformation policies for appliances and
equipment
Lighting14. Phase-out of inefficient lighting products and
systems15. Energy efficient lighting systems
Transport16. Mandatory vehicle fuel efficiency standards17. Measures to improve vehicle fuel efficiency18. Fuel-efficient non-engine components19. Improved vehicle operational efficiency through
Eco-driving and other measures20. Transport system efficiency
Industry21. Energy Management in industry22. High efficiency industrial equipment and systems23. Energy efficiency services for small and medium
enterprises24. Complementary policies to support industrial
energy efficiency
Utilities and end-use25. Energy Utilities and end-use energy efficiency
25 EE Policy Recommendations
© OECD/IEA 2012
Matchmaking: Demand with Suppliers
Interested Policymakers, etc.
Willing Suppliers of expertise
Speed-datingLong-term relationship
© OECD/IEA 2013
EE is not on track for 2DS
Renewable power
Electric and hybrid-electric vehicles
Smart grids
Fuel economy
Gas-fired power
Nuclear power
Coal-fired power
Carbon capture and storage
Industry
Biofuels
Buildings
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuclear 8%
End-use fuel switching12%
CCS 14%
Renewables 21%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3%
End-use fuel and electricityefficiency 42%
Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2)
Portfolio of decarbonising measures
Emissions with 6DS
Emissions with 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuclear 8%
End-use fuel switching12%
CCS 14%
Renewables 21%
Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2)
Portfolio of decarbonising measures
Emissions with 6DS
Emissions with 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy Efficiency
Climate Change Goals
Energy Sector Goals
Economic & Security Goals
Local PollutionGoals
SocialGoals
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy Efficiency
Climate Change Goals
Energy Sector Goals
Economic & Security Goals
Local PollutionGoals
SocialGoals
© IEA 2013
Thank You
Philippe BenoitHead of Energy Efficiency & Environment (Climate) Division, IEA
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