Before the Bell · 2020. 6. 16. · when they venture out. Simply put, the more time consumers spend away from home, the more apt they are to spend money and add to economic activity.

Notations:

For further information on any of the topics mentioned, please contact your Financial Advisor. Unless specifically stated otherwise, comments contained in this document should not be construed as an investment opinion or

recommendation of any securities mentioned. Charts depicted are from FactSet unless otherwise noted. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ © 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 11

Before the Bell Morning Market Brief

June 16, 2020

FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE THE DISCLOSURE PAGES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY: Anthony M. Saglimbene, Global Market Strategist

Quick Take: U.S. futures are pointing to a strong open this morning after a much better than expected retail sales report for May. European markets are trading solidly in the green; Asia also ended materially higher overnight; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trading up to $38.35; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 0.78%.

Checking In On COVID-19 Trends: Over recent days, the stock market has struggled to square the rise in coronavirus cases with its more robust outlook of economic activity in the second half of the year. Please see yesterday's Before the Bell for more detail on our take of what a potential second wave of COVID-19 cases could mean for the market over the next few months.

Recently, a Bespoke Investment Group constructed index, including five weekly variables, centered on mortgage purchase applications, demand for gasoline, container traffic on railroads, initial jobless claims, and weekly consumer comfort readings showed the U.S. economy likely bottomed during late March and early April.

Until last week, the Federal Reserve of New York's Weekly Economic Index also had started to show signs of bottoming, as the FactSet chart below shows. As more states lift restrictions on businesses, we believe the New York Fed's WEI may start to turn the corner eventually. However, the economy has quite a way to go before returning to anywhere near normal. As the chart below also shows, the aggregate collection of weekly data the New York Fed uses for its WEI took a dip lower last week, only adding to the market's building frustration with a potentially slower than hoped for economic recovery.

Before The Bell June 16, 2020 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ © 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 11

As we have also discussed previously, near real-time mobility trends from Google and Apple, have also started to play a more significant role in the short-term outlook for the economy as well as expectations for a pickup in activity. On a national level, Google mobility trends (which use anonymized phone location data to measure movement) have shown a gradual uptick in activity.

As the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently noted, a key driver to the economic stop in March and April was the "physical distance of people" to slow the spread of COVID-19. Thus, the Dallas Fed created the Mobility & Engagement Index (MEI), formally known as the Social Distancing Index. The Dallas Fed's MEI aggregates seven daily mobility factors, which measures time spent away from home and trip distance.

As the chart above shows, the MEI has gradually ebbed lower since peaking in early April. Meaning, Americans are becoming more active, leaving home more often, and spending more time away from home when they venture out. Simply put, the more time consumers spend away from home, the more apt they are to spend money and add to economic activity.

But as the chart above also highlights, limited ability to go out and spend, and an abundance of caution among individuals worried about contracting COVID-19, have kept MEI levels much higher compared to pre-coronavirus levels. In our view, the MEI could provide a vital early warning sign into how consumers respond to a potential second wave of COVID-19. Thus far, the data hasn't shown a weekly rise since peaking in April. But if consumers grow more concerned about the virus and the MEI starts heading higher, we believe investors may take note, which could add to the market’s frustration about a recovery.

Importantly, mobility trends lend great insight into where consumers are going but tell you little about their spending trends. In our view, this is one of the significant limitations to mobility data. Over the coming weeks, we believe the market could grow impatient if it doesn’t see confirmation in traditional data sets that a recovery is progressing as it anticipates.

Speaking of impatience, Google's Coronavirus Search Trends tell a very interesting story at the moment. As the first Google chart below shows, "coronavirus" as a search term has fallen dramatically since peaking in March. With the summer season starting to kick into gear, America is far more concerned with checking the weather before heading outdoors than they are with checking in on the virus.

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1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020

Mobility trends show Americans are slowly reducing their social distancing behaviors

The Dallas Fed Mobility & Engagement Index



However, when Americans do check in on coronavirus topics, they are predominately centered on questions that answer when life can return to normal, as the Google table above shows. In our view, this type of information shows a degree of frustration with being locked down for several months. As a result, the relaxing of stay-at-home restrictions, a general desire by Americans to return to regular routines, and summer activities that attract gatherings have increased the risk the virus could spread. We are certainly not health experts. But based on the information above and the window into American's psyche, we believe there is fertile ground for the virus to spread over the coming weeks and months. This could have implications for our market outlook as well as our year-end projections.

But we will reiterate what we highlighted yesterday: Though markets could gyrate and possibly react negatively to a potential second wave of COVID-19 infections over a shorter period, there are strong dynamics in place we believe could support asset prices over time. Meaning, we believe investors should remain cautious but avoid becoming overly bearish based on worsening virus trends.

Asia-Pacific: Asian equities finished higher on Tuesday. According to FactSet, China's National Health Commission reported coronavirus cases declined yesterday following an outbreak in a Beijing food market over the weekend. The government has tightened restrictions around Beijing, which now prevents taxi and ride-hailing services from leaving the city. Local officials in Shanghai have ordered travelers from Beijing to quarantine themselves for fourteen days.

As expected, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left monetary policy unchanged, while maintaining its current levels of asset purchases. The BOJ noted in its policy statement it is closely monitoring COVID-19 and would provide additional monetary support if necessary.

Per The Wall Street Journal, South Korea's unification ministry in Seoul said North Korea blew up an inter-Korean liaison office in the Kaesong. The jointly run office, which was closed in late January due to the coronavirus, was destroyed in the blast. Over recent days, Pyongyang has ramped up its rhetoric against South Korea and threatened military action. Earlier in June, North Korea cut off communication with Seoul after anti-regime leaflets were sent over the inter-Korean border by defector-led groups, per FactSet.



Europe: Most markets across the region are trading sharply higher at midday. German ZEW economic sentiment rebounded this month to its highest level since 2006. ZEW said there is growing confidence among survey participants the economy will begin to see a recovery in the back half of summer. With said, there is a wide disparity in confidence on which sectors could see an earnings recovery. Export-driven industries such as automotive and mechanical engineering still face a negative outlook.

U.S.: Equity futures are pointing to a stronger open. Here's a quick news rundown to start your morning: Stock futures point to a higher open this morning after finishing higher on Monday and reversing sharp

losses. At the beginning of the month, over 97% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 50-day moving average. Today, that figure stands at roughly 80% following last week's losses. Given the tremendous stock rally from the March bottom, the market was due for a pullback, in our view. However, the moves over recent days have been more jarring, and sometimes, driven by news items already understood in the market. Yesterday's afternoon turnaround in some respects was based on the Federal Reserve's announcement it will begin buying individual corporate bonds and bond ETFs on June 16th, which the market already knew it was soon going to do. Our advice: Focus on virus trends and the shape of the economic recovery. These two related factors may provide the most significant influence on stock prices over the next few months.

The White House is said to be preparing a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure plan. According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is working on an infrastructure proposal that would fix bridges and roads, with money for a 5G wireless and rural broadband buildout. The existing infrastructure funding law FAST Act could be a means to pass funding through, which already authorizes $305 billion for infrastructure spending over five years and is up for renewal at the end of September. Such a proposal could also be rolled into the next COVID-19 stimulus relief package as well. This morning, the potential for added infrastructure spending is boosting stock futures, as the proposal has the potential to add jobs and increase economic activity.

WORLD CAPITAL MARKETS 6/16/2020 As of: 8:30 AM ET

Americas % chg. % YTD Value Europe (Intra-day) % chg. %YTD Value Asia/Pacific (Last Night) % chg. %YTD ValueS&P 500 0.83% -4.19% 3,066.6 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe) 3.28% -12.15% 3,239.3 Nikkei 225 (Japan) 4.88% -3.59% 22,582.2 Dow Jones 0.62% -8.64% 25,763.2 FTSE 100 (U.K.) 2.91% -15.85% 6,241.1 Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 2.39% -12.50% 24,344.1 NASDAQ Composite 1.43% 8.98% 9,726.0 DAX Index (Germany) 3.39% -7.04% 12,315.7 Korea Kospi 100 5.28% -2.47% 2,138.1 Russell 2000 2.30% -14.36% 1,419.6 CAC 40 (France) 2.92% -16.05% 4,956.5 Singapore STI 2.03% -15.34% 2,666.9 Brazil Bovespa -0.45% -20.12% 92,376 FTSE MIB (Italy) 3.81% -16.23% 19,692.0 Shanghai Comp. (China) 1.44% -3.88% 2,931.7 S&P/TSX Comp. (Canada) 0.68% -8.55% 15,359.7 IBEX 35 (Spain) 3.35% -20.49% 7,502.3 Bombay Sensex (India) 1.13% -18.19% 33,605.2 Mexico IPC -0.70% -13.58% 37,416.7 MOEX Index (Russia) 1.87% -7.85% 2,769.9 S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) 3.89% -9.47% 5,942.3

Global % chg. % YTD Value Developed International % chg. %YTD Value Emerging International % chg. %YTD ValueMSCI All-Country World Idx 0.03% -7.54% 516.7 MSCI EAFE -1.00% -12.66% 1,750.5 MSCI Emerging Mkts -2.10% -12.51% 966.3

Note: International market returns shown on a local currency basis. The equity index data shown above is on a total return basis, inclusive of div idends.

S&P 500 Sectors % chg. % YTD Value Commodities Communication Services 1.00% 0.73% 181.8 Equity Income Indices % chg. % YTD Value Futures & Spot (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD ValueConsumer Discretionary 0.88% 4.57% 1,025.4 JPM Alerian MLP Index 5.82% -30.42% 151.8 CRB Raw Industrials -0.38% -7.48% 418.01 Consumer Staples 1.06% -6.25% 598.3 FTSE NAREIT Comp. TR 1.32% -10.68% 19,071.2 NYMEX WTI Crude (p/bbl.) 2.21% -37.86% 37.94 Energy 0.08% -32.63% 299.5 DJ US Select Dividend 0.81% -19.82% 1,836.3 ICE Brent Crude (p/bbl.) 2.37% -38.39% 40.66 Financials 1.38% -20.91% 399.6 DJ Global Select Dividend 3.47% -20.90% 182.6 NYMEX Nat Gas (mmBtu) -0.54% -24.17% 1.66 Health Care 0.18% -3.52% 1,136.6 S&P Div. Aristocrats 1.04% -9.70% 2,770.1 Spot Gold (troy oz.) -0.03% 13.66% 1,724.59 Industrials 0.93% -14.12% 584.9 Spot Silver (troy oz.) -0.35% -2.97% 17.32

Materials 0.93% -8.73% 348.2 LME Copper (per ton) -1.44% -7.65% 5,678.75 Real Estate 1.02% -6.36% 222.0 Bond Indices % chg. % YTD Value LME Aluminum (per ton) -0.45% -12.77% 1,553.80 Technology 0.87% 9.94% 1,760.3 Barclays US Agg. Bond 0.02% 5.73% 2,352.6 CBOT Corn (cents p/bushel) 1.12% -15.84% 337.50 Utilities 0.62% -7.80% 297.9 Barclays HY Bond 0.00% -3.15% 2,114.0 CBOT Wheat (cents p/bushel) 0.05% -10.33% 510.00

Foreign Exchange (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD ValueEuro (€/$) -0.13% 0.85% 1.13 Japanese Yen ($/¥) -0.04% 1.15% 107.37 Canadian Dollar ($/C$) 0.21% -4.08% 1.35British Pound (£/$) 0.40% -4.54% 1.27 Australian Dollar (A$/$) 0.12% -1.34% 0.69 Swiss Franc ($/CHF) 0.13% 1.96% 0.95Data/Price Source: Bloomberg. Equity Index data is total return, inclusive of dividends, where applicable.



BY THE NUMBERS: ECONOMIC ACTUALS AND FORECAST:

ECONOMIC NEWS OUT TODAY: Economic Releases for Tuesday, June 16, 2020. All times Eastern. Consensus estimates via Bloomberg. Time Period Release Consensus Est. Actual Prior Revised to 8:30 AM MAY Retail Sales (MoM) +8.2% +17.7% -16.4% -14.7% 8:30 AM MAY Retail Sales Ex. Autos (MoM) +5.5% +12.4% -17.2% -15.2% 8:30 AM MAY Retail Sales Ex. Autos and Gas (MoM) +5.0% +12.4% -16.2% -14.4% 9:15 AM MAY Industrial Production (MoM) +3.0% -11.2% 9:15 AM MAY Capacity Utilization 66.9% 64.9% 9:15 AM MAY Manufacturing Output (MoM) +5.0% -13.7% 10:00 AM APR Business Inventories (MoM) -1.0% -0.2% 10:00 AM JUN NAHB Housing Market Index 45 37

Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee U.S. Equity Sector - Tactical View

S&P 500 GAAC GAAC S&P 500 GAAC GAAC

Index GAAC Tactical Recommended Index GAAC Tactical RecommendedSector Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight Sector Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight

1) Communication Services 10.7% Underweight - 2.0% 8.7% 6) Health Care 14.9% Overweight +3.0% 17.9%

2) Consumer Discretionary 9.9% Overweight +2.0% 11.9% 7) Industrials 8.4% Equalweight - 8.4%

3) Consumer Staples 7.6% Equalweight - 7.6% 8) Information Technology 25.7% Equalweight - 25.7%

4) Energy 2.7% Equalweight - 2.7% 9) Materials 2.4% Equalweight - 2.4%

5) Financials 11.2% Underweight - 3.0% 8.2% 10) Real Estate 3.0% Overweight +1.0% 4.0%

11) Utilities 3.5% Underweight - 1.0% 2.5%

As of: March 31, 2020

Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee Global Equity Region - Tactical View

MSCI All-Country GAAC GAAC MSCI All-Country GAAC GAAC

World Index GAAC Tactical Recommended World Index GAAC Tactical RecommendedRegion Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight Region Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight

1) United States 55.7% Overweight +7.1% 62.8% 5) Latin America 1.0% Equalweight - 1.0%

2) Canada 2.7% Equalweight - 2.7% 6) Asia-Pacific ex Japan 14.4% Equalweight - 14.4%

3) United Kingdom 4.2% Underweight - 2.0% 2.2% 7) Japan 7.2% Underweight - 2.0% 5.2%

4) Europe ex U.K. 13.7% Underweight - 2.0% 11.7% 8) Middle East / Africa 1.1% Underweight - 1.1% -

As of: March 31, 2020



Economic Perspective: Russell T. Price, CFA – Chief Economist Retail sales rebounded much more strongly than expected in the month of May. In issuing today’s report, the

Commerce Department also revised its data for April to show a smaller decline than initially reported. Today’s results represent a “win” for those still seeing strength of the economic rebound from its COVID-19 lows after

a resurgence of virus cases had questioned the viability of the recovery over the last week. Nearly every primary retail category experienced strong gains in the month. The very few that posted modest gains

were primary those that had surged during the heart of the crisis, segments such as grocery stores (up just 1.3% mo/mo) and pharmacies /health stores which were just 0.4% higher.

Strong auto sales accounted for nearly 9 percentage points (pp) of the May rebound while clothing stores added 3.1 pp and eating and drinking establishments contributed 2.3 pp.

After being down 19.5% year-over-year in April, May’s results represent a year-over-year decline of 7.7%.

The Fed’s balance sheet continues to grow. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced that they would begin buying individual corporate bonds in addition to the corporate bond ETF purchases it previously initiated. The purchases are being conducted under its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) program, as initially unveiled on March 23rd. The program allows for the purchase of up to $750 billion in U.S. corporate credit.

The SMCCF is just one part of the Fed’s ongoing market support during these challenged economic times – an issue Fed Chair Powell will discuss much further in his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 AM ET today. Please see today’s Before the Bell for more on the Fed’s expanded corporate purchase program.

As of last week (June 12th), total assets held on the Fed’s balance sheet amounted to $7.2 trillion. Securities held by the Fed amounted to $6.0 trillion with U.S. Treasuries of $4.1 trillion (represented by the blue line in the chart at right). Mortgage Backed Securities account for the bulk of the difference.

The Fed’s Treasury holdings represented 20.7% of all U.S. Treasury securities outstanding and in the hands of the public as of the end of May, according to FactSet (as indicated by the red line in the chart). By comparison, Federal Reserve Treasury holdings as a percentage of total U.S. government debt outstanding plateaued at about 19% in the years after the Financial Crisis (Jun. 2014 through Oct. 2015) before the Fed began “rolling off” its balance sheet. In October of last year, the percentage hit its lowest levels since early 2011 at about 12.5%. By comparison, the Fed typically held just over 15% of all Treasury debt in the years ahead of the Financial Crisis (2005 through 2007). The chart at right is sourced from FactSet.

FIXED INCOME NEWS & VIEWS: Brian M. Erickson, CFA, Fixed Income Research & Strategy

Fed Begins Buying Secondary Corporate Bonds Today The Fed announced the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (secondary market facility or SMCCF) would begin

buying corporate bonds that fit parameters outlined by Congress, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Reserve today. Fed corporate credit facility purchases aim to support corporate market functioning and to foster access to liquidity for high-quality companies needing to fund losses or refinance near-term maturities

Fed corporate bond programs: The Fed supports a range of lending programs to support large, medium, and small businesses. Today, we are focused on large company lending. The initial program design allocates up to $500 billion in capacity for the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (primary market facility or PMCCF) and $250 billion of SMCCF capacity. Given the robust pace of investment grade issuance that is 90% ahead of last year’s pace, we



believe the PMCCF may find fewer companies needing new issue support. Though the Fed missed out on providing funding, we belive it was the likely implementation of the combined CCF that enabled issuers to raise considerable funding. Further, should financial conditions deteriorate, we see the primary facility playing a greater role in corporate funding. The primary facility is intended as more of a buyer of last resort, requiring additional fees in addition to market pricing.

The SMCCF will be managed like a large credit fund tracking an index of eligible issuers that meet the criteria outlined in the term sheet. Limits on each issuer are the lesser of $11B or 10% of the maximum outstanding debt for the issuer. The facility will aim to balance across index sectors to the extent possible, rebalancing the index regularly to include new issues and to drop issuers downgraded below Ba3/BB-. Other requirements include: The issuer must have been rated Baa3/BBB- or better on March 22, and be rated at least Ba3/BB- at the time of purchase. The issuer must be U.S. domiciled with primary operations and a majority of employees in the U.S. And, beneficiaries of other CARES Act funding are ineligible. Issues must be U.S. dollar denominated.

While the Fed’s purchase of ETFs broadly supports company access to funding, we believe companies that meet the specific requirements of the primary or secondary credit facilities benefit to a greater degree than broad markets. We recommend sticking to high-quality issuers rated investment grade on March 22 that meet the full requirements for Fed support. Companies without direct access may still be vulnerable during periods of increased stress. Finally, we believe the approach will be broadly supportive of the corporate market as a whole, supporting all 12 GIC sectors to an equal extent.

Corporate ETF Purchases Considered an Off-shoot of SMCCF Up to this point, purchases under the SMCCF centered on ETF securities. Based on the Fed data released on May

19, the split between investment grade and high yield was roughly 80/20%. ETF positions included short investment-grade corporate, intermediate-term corporate, and high yield corporate bond ETFs with a positional mix of approximately 80% investment grade and 20% high yield. Overall, we believe the 80/20 mix, which matches the mix between investment grade and high yield in Barclay’s corporate indices, provides a guide for how ETF purchases likely continue. The Fed’s latest frequently asked questions identified that ETF purchases would slow or pause when funding conditions improve and return as spreads widen, evolving in response to credit conditions. See the cover commentary of today’s Morning Research Notes report for additional information on Fed purchases of ETFs.

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Ameriprise Investment Research Group Ameriprise Financial 1441 West Long Lake Road, Suite 250, Troy, MI 48098 [email protected] For additional information or to locate your nearest branch office, visit ameriprise.com RESEARCH & DUE DILIGENCE LEADER

Lyle B. Schonberger - Vice President Business Unit Compliance Liaison (BUCL) Jeff Carlson, CLU, ChFC – Sr. Manager Investment Research Coordinator Kimberly K. Shores Sr. Administrative Assistant Jillian Willis STRATEGISTS Chief Market Strategist David M. Joy – Vice President Global Market Strategist Anthony M. Saglimbene – Vice President

Thomas Crandall, CFA, CMT, CAIA – Sr. Director, Asset Allocation Cedric Buermann Jr., CFA – Analyst – Quantitative, Asset Allocation

Gaurav Sawhney – Research Analyst

Amit Tiwari – Sr. Research Associate Chief Economist Russell T. Price, CFA – Vice President Retirement Research Jay C. Untiedt, CFA, CAIA, RICP – Vice President EQUITY RESEARCH Equity Research Director Justin H. Burgin – Vice President

Consumer Goods and Services Patrick S. Diedrickson, CFA – Director

Energy/Utilities William Foley, ASIP – Director

Financial Services/REITs Lori Wilking-Przekop – Sr Director

Health Care Daniel Garofalo – Director

Industrials/Materials Frederick M. Schultz – Director

Technology/Telecommunication Open

MANAGER RESEARCH

Michael V. Jastrow, CFA – Vice President

Mark Phelps, CFA – Director – Multi-Asset Solutions ETFs, CEFs, UITs Jeffrey R. Lindell, CFA – Director

James P. Johnson, CFA, CFP® – Sr Analyst Alternatives Justin E. Bell, CFA – Vice President – Head of Quantitative Research and Alternatives

Kay S. Nachampassak – Director - Alternatives Quantitative Research Kurt J. Merkle, CFA, CFP®, CAIA – Sr Director

Peter W. LaFontaine – Sr Analyst

David Hauge, CFA – Analyst

Blake Hockert – Sr Associate

Bishnu Dhar – Sr Research Analyst

Parveen Vedi – Sr Research Associate

Darakshan Ali – Research Process Trainee Equities Christine A. Pederson, CAIA, CIMA – Sr Director – Growth Equity, Infrastructure & REIT

Benjamin L. Becker, CFA – Director – International/Global Equity

Cynthia Tupy, CFA – Director – Value and Equity Income Equity

Alex Zachman, CFA – Analyst – Core Equity Fixed Income Steven T. Pope, CFA, CFP® – Sr Director – Non-Core Fixed Income

Douglas D. Noah, CFA – Sr Analyst – Core Taxable & Tax-Exempt Fixed Income

FIXED INCOME RESEARCH & STRATEGY

Fixed Income Research Brian M. Erickson, CFA – Vice President High Yield and Investment Grade Credit Jon Kyle Cartwright – Sr. Director

Stephen Tufo – Director

RETIREMENT RESEARCH

Jay C. Untiedt, CFA, CAIA, RICP – Vice President

Nidhi Khandelwal – Director

Matt Morgan – Sr. Manager



The content in this report is authored by American Enterprise Investment Services Inc. (“AEIS”) and distributed by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. (“AFSI”) to financial advisors and clients of AFSI. AEIS and AFSI are affiliates and subsidiaries of Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Both AEIS and AFSI are member firms registered with FINRA and are subject to the objectivity safeguards and disclosure requirements relating to research analysts and the publication and distribution of research reports. The “Important Disclosures” below relate to the AEIS research analyst(s) that prepared this publication. The “Disclosures of Possible Conflicts of Interest” section, where applicable, relates to the conflicts of interest of each of AEIS and AFSI, their affiliates and their research analysts, as applicable, with respect to the subject companies mentioned in the report. Each of AEIS and AFSI have implemented policies and procedures reasonably designed to ensure that its employees involved in the preparation, content and distribution of research reports, including dually registered employees, do not influence the objectivity or timing of the publication of research report content. All research policies, coverage decisions, compensation, hiring and other personnel decisions with respect to research analysts are made by AEIS, which is operationally independent of AFSI. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES As of March 31, 2020 The views expressed regarding the company(ies) and sector(s) featured in this publication reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) authoring the publication. Further, no part of research analyst compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this publication. A part of a research analyst’s compensation may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading are components. No part of a research analyst’s compensation is based on a specific investment banking transaction, nor is it based on sales, trading, or principal trading. A research analyst may have visited the material operations of one or more of the subject companies mentioned in this research report. No payment was received for the related travel costs. Additional information and current research disclosures on individual companies mentioned in this research report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. You may also submit a written request to Ameriprise Financial, Inc., 1441 West Long Lake Road, Troy MI, 48098. Independent third-party research on individual companies is available to clients at ameriprise.com/research-market-insights. SEC filings may be viewed at sec.gov. Tactical asset class recommendations mentioned in this report reflect The Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee’s general view of the financial markets, as of the date of the report, based on then current conditions. Our tactical recommendations may differ materially from what is presented in a customized long-term financial plan or portfolio strategy. You should view our recommendations in conjunction with a broader long-term portfolio strategy. Not all products, services, or asset classes mentioned in this report may be available for sale at Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Please consult with your financial advisor. Diversification and Asset Allocation do not assure a profit or protect against loss. RISK FACTORS Dividend and interest payments are not guaranteed. The amount of dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and

issuers may reduce or eliminate dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer. Should a company be unable to pay interest on a timely basis a default may occur and interruption or reduction of interest and principal occur. Investments in a narrowly focused sector may exhibit higher volatility than investments with broader objectives and is subject to market risk and economic risk. Income Risk: We note that dividends are declared solely at the discretion of the companies’ boards of directors. Dividend cuts or eliminations will likely negatively impact underlying company valuations. Published dividend yields are calculated before fees and taxes. Dividends paid by foreign companies to ADR holders may be subject to a withholding tax which could adversely affect the realized dividend yield. In certain circumstances, investors in ADR shares have the option to receive dividends in the form of cash payments, rights shares or ADR shares. Each form of dividend payment will have different tax consequences and therefore generate a different yield. In some instances, ADR holders are eligible to reclaim a portion of the withholding tax. International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets. Market Risk: Equity markets in general could sustain significant volatility due to several factors. As we have seen recently, both economic and geopolitical issues could have a material impact on this model portfolio and the equity market as a whole. Quantitative Strategy Risk: Stock selection and portfolio maintenance strategies based on quantitative analytics carry a unique set of risks. Quantitative strategies rely on comprehensive, accurate and thorough historical data. The Ameriprise Investment Research Group utilizes current and historical data provided by third-party data vendors. Material errors in database construction and maintenance could have an adverse effect on quantitative research and the resulting stock selection strategies. PRODUCT RISK DISCLOSURES Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value.



For additional information on individual ETFs, see available third-party research which provides additional investment highlights. SEC filings may be viewed at sec.gov All fixed income securities are subject to a series of risks which may include, but are not limited to: interest rate risk, call risk, refunding risk, default risk, inflations risk, liquidity risk and event risk. Please review these risks with your financial advisor to better understand how these risks may affect your investment choices. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities. This means you may lose money if you sell a bond prior to maturity as a result of interest rate or other market movement. Any information relating to the income or capital gains tax treatment of financial instruments or strategies discussed herein is not intended to provide specific tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. A real estate investment trust or REIT is a company that owns and operates income-producing real estate. In addition, some REITs participate in the financing of real estate. To qualify as a REIT, a company must: I) invest at least 75% of its total assets in real estate assets, II) generate at least 75% of its gross income from real property or interest, and III) pay at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in the form of distributions. A company that qualifies as a REIT is permitted to deduct the distributions paid to shareholders from its corporate taxes. Consequently, many REITs target to payout at least 100% of taxable income, resulting in virtually no corporate taxes. An investment in a REIT is subject to many of the same risks as a direct investment in real estate including, but not limited to: Illiquidity and valuation complexities, redemption restrictions, distribution and diversification limits, tax consequences, fees, defaults by borrowers or tenants, market saturation, balloon payments, refinancing, bankruptcy, decreases in market rates for rents and other economic, political, or regulatory occurrences affecting the real estate industry. Ratings are provided by Moody’s Investors Services and Standard & Poor’s. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as "high-yield" or "junk" bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue. Securities offered through AFSI may not be suitable for all investors. Consult with your financial advisor for more information regarding the suitability of a particular investment. For further information on fixed income securities please refer to FINRA’s Smart Bond Investing at FINRA.org, MSRB’s Electronic Municipal Market Access at emma.msrb.org, or Investing in Bonds at investinginbonds.com.

DEFINITIONS OF TERMS Agency – Agency bonds are issued by Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE), but are NOT direct obligations of the U.S. government. Common GSE’s are the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. (Freddie Mac) Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB). Beta: A measure of the risk arising from exposure to general market movements as opposed to company-specific factors. Betas in this report, unless otherwise noted, use the S&P 500 as the market benchmark and result from calculations over historic periods. A beta below 1.0, for example, can suggest the equity has tended to move with lower volatility than the broader market or, due to company-specific factors, has had higher volatility but generally low correlations with the overall market. Corporate Bonds – Are debt instruments issued by a private corporation. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as “high-yield” or “junk” bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue. Mortgage Backed Securities – Bonds are subject to prepayment risk. Yield and average lives shown consider prepayment assumptions that may not be met. Changes in payments may significantly affect yield and average life. Please contact your financial advisor for information on CMOs and how they react to different market conditions. Municipal Bonds – Interest income may be subject to state and/or local income taxes and/or the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Municipal securities subject to AMT assume a “nontaxable” status for yield calculations. Certain municipal bond income may be subject to federal income tax and are identified as “taxable”. Gains on sales/redemptions of municipal bonds may be taxed as capital gains. If the bonds are insured, the insurance pertains to the timely payment of principal (at maturity) and interest by the insurer of the underlying securities and not to the price of the bond, which will fluctuate prior to maturity. The guarantees are backed by the claims-paying ability of the listed insurance company. Treasury Securities – There is no guarantee as to the market value of these securities if they are sold prior to maturity or redemption. Price/Book: A financial ratio used to compare a company’s market share price, as of a certain date, to its book value per share. Book value relates to the accounting value of assets and liabilities in a company’s balance sheet. It is generally not a direct reflection of future earnings prospects or hard to value intangibles, such as brand, that could help generate those earnings. Price/Earnings: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by earnings per share. Trailing P/E uses the share price divided by the past four-quarters’ earnings per share. Forward P/E uses the share price as of a certain date



divided by the consensus estimate of the future four-quarters’ EPS. Price/Sales: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by the company’s sales per share over the most recent year. INDEX DEFINITIONS An index is a statistical composite that is not managed. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Definitions of individual indices mentioned in this report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. DISCLAIMER SECTION Except for the historical information contained herein, certain matters in this report are forward-looking statements or projections that are dependent upon certain risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to, such factors and considerations as general market volatility, global economic and geopolitical impacts, fiscal and monetary policy, liquidity, the level of interest rates, historical sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle, consumer preferences, foreign currency exchange rates, litigation risk, competitive positioning, the ability to successfully integrate acquisitions, the ability to develop and commercialize new products and services, legislative risks, the pricing environment for products and services, and compliance with various local, state, and federal health care laws. See latest third-party research reports and updates for risks pertaining to a particular security. This summary is based upon financial information and statistical data obtained from sources deemed reliable, but in no way is warranted by Ameriprise Financial, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. This is not a solicitation by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. of any order to buy or sell securities. This summary is based exclusively on an analysis of general current market conditions, rather than the suitability of a specific proposed securities transaction. We will not advise you as to any change in figures or our views. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment products are not federally or FDIC-insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value. AFSI and its affiliates do not offer tax or legal advice. Consumers should consult with their tax advisor or attorney regarding their specific situation. Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC.

Before the Bell · 2020. 6. 16. · when they venture out. Simply put, the more time consumers spend away from home, the more apt they are to spend money and add to economic activity.

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