BEEF & VEAL MARKET SITUATION

BEEF & VEALMARKET SITUATION

"Single CMO" Management Committee 19 July 2012

2

P R O D U C T I O N H I S T O R I CT O N N E S

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2

1.00

0 To

nnes

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1.00

0 To

nnes

EU15 EU12

Apr

Beef & Veal Production (Slaughtering) - Tonnes

Source : EStat-Newcronos

3

P R O D U C T I O N % E V O L U T I O NH E A D S

Estimates for last month of period :CY Source : EStat - Newcronos

Tot Bov

YBov

-5,0%

+0,1% +0,2%

-4,3%

Steers

Cows

Heifers

Veals

Bulls

Jan-Apr 12/11EU 15 EU 27

-4,6%

HEADS

-5,2%

-1,6% -1,9%

-7,6% -8,8%

-12,5% -12,5%

-0,4% -1,1%-4,2%

-7,4%

-3,8%

+2,5%

-9,8%

-12,8%

-7,8%

-0,8%

-3,2%

-5,5%

-2,2%

-5,1%

-2,8%

-13,7%

-18,1%

-8,4%

-10,9%

-15,1%

+4,1%

-0,7%

-2,9%-1,7%

-5,2%

-7,8%

-12,4%

-2,4%

-0,0%

- 20 %

- 15 %

- 10 %

- 5 %

0%

+ 5 %

BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK- 20 %

- 15 %

- 10 %

- 5 %

0%

+ 5 %

EU : - 5,0%

4

P R O D U C T I O N % E V O L U T I O NT O N N E S

Estimates for last month of period :CY Source : EStat - Newcronos

Steers

Cows

-4,1%

+2,2%Veals

-0,7%

Heifers

YBov

Tot Bov -4,8%-4,1%

Jan-Apr 12/11TONNES

EU 15 EU 27

Bulls

-4,3%

-7,6%

-11,4%

-1,3%

-4,7%

+2,1%

-4,4%

-6,5%

-11,4%

-3,6%

-7,5%-6,4%

+3,2%

-10,4%-10,7%-10,1%

-3,3%-4,0%

-5,8%

-0,3%

-5,6%

-1,7%-2,4%

-10,4%

-18,4%

-7,6%

-1,7%

-16,0%

+2,8%

-1,8%-2,5% -2,9%

-7,7%-6,9%

-2,7%

-15,2%

- 20 %

- 15 %

- 10 %

- 5 %

0%

+ 5 %

BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK - 20 %

- 15 %

- 10 %

- 5 %

0%

+ 5 %

EU : - 4,8%

5

P R O D U C T I O N Abs.Value E V O L U T I O NT O N N E S

1000 TONNES : Jan-Apr 11 / Jan-Apr 12

0

100

200

300

400

500

B E B G C Z D K D E E E I E E L E S F R I T C Y L V L T L U H U M T N L A T P L P T R O S I S K F I S E U K

Cows

Steers

Bulls

Heifers

YBov

Calves

Source : EStat Newcronos

6

E.U. E V O L U T I O NAll CAT GLOBAL VIEW

P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

A R3

C R3

D O3

E R3Last Update : Week 27 - 2012Source : Member States

7

P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S

E.U. E V O L U T I O NY O U N G B U L L – A.R3

376,55 373,65% change y/y : + 12,7% % change y/y : + 12,2%

Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53

2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012

A - R 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States

8

E.U. E V O L U T I O NS T E E R – C.R3

P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S

411,23 406,82% change y/y : + 21,4% % change y/y : + 19,7%

Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53

2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012

C - R 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States

9

E.U. E V O L U T I O NA / C . R3

P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S

383,03 381,61% change y/y : + 14,6% % change y/y : + 14,4%

172,2%

Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :

% Ref. Price in wk 27 :

222,4

244,6

266,9

289,1

311,4

333,6

355,8

378,1

400,3

W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53

€/100 kg cwe

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

180%

2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012

% of Reference Price

AC - R 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States

10

E.U. E V O L U T I O NC O W – D.O3

P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S

319,20 317,72% change y/y : + 17,2% % change y/y : + 18,7%

Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53

2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012

D - O 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States

11

E.U. E V O L U T I O NH E I F E R – E.R3

P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S

383,77 383,63% change y/y : + 11,8% % change y/y : + 12,3%

Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53

2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012

E - R 3 > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States

12

Male store cattle (6-12 months; ≤ 300 kg – €/100 kg live weight)

E.U. E V O L U T I O NMALE STORE CATTLE

P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S

268,96 268,58% change y/y : + 27,7% % change y/y : + 26,6%

Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53

2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012

BROUT > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States

13

Male calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)

P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S

E.U. E V O L U T I O NMale Calves – 8D4W

265,48 264,12% change y/y : + 21,6% % change y/y : + 16,8%

Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53

2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012

8D4W > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States

14

Male DAIRY CALVES calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)

P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S

E V O L U T I O NMale DAIRY Calves – 8D4W

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

€ / H

ead

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

€ / H

ead

DE - SCHWARZBUNTE DE - BRAUNVIEH ES - TIPO FRISONFR - MALES-ENGRAISSEMENT IE - DAIRY MALE IT - MALES-LAITIERS-VITELLINL - ROODBONT-NUKAS NL - ZWARTBONT-NUKAS UK - DAIRY BULLS

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 > W27

15

Male BEEF CALVES calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)

P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S

E V O L U T I O NMale BEEF Calves – 8D4W

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

€ / H

ead

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

€ / H

ead

DE - FLECKVIEH DE - KREUZUNGSKALBER ES - TIPO CRUZADO FR - MALES-ELEVAGEIE - BEEF MALE IT - MALES-BOUCHERIE NL - VLEESRAS--NUKAS UK - BEEF BULLS

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 > W27

16

Butcher calves (€/100 kg cw)

P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S

E.U. E V O L U T I O NButcher Calves

528,26 532,28% change y/y : + 0,6% % change y/y : + 0,7%

Price in week 27 : Average price in juin 2012 :

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53

2005-2009 Avg 2010 2011 2012

BOUCH > Wk.27-2012Source : Member States

17

Butcher calves (€/100 kg cw)

P R I C E S L I V E B O V I N E S

E V O L U T I O NButcher Calves by MS

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

€ / 1

00 k

g ca

rcas

se

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

€ / 1

00 k

g ca

rcas

e

BE - VEAUX BLANCS E,U,R FR - VEAUX DE BOUCHERIE IT - CARNE BIANCA NL - VLEESKALF-ROOD NL - VLEESKALF-ZWART

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 > W27

18

M A R G I N E.U. E V O L U T I O NAnimal + Feed Purchase COST

Remainder of: Selling price AR 3,minus purchased calf plus feedcost for grain fattening

0

100

200

300

400

| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |

€uro

/ hea

d

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Remainder Young Bulls A.R 3 Extra gain of FCR between 7- 6 Feedcost x*7Feed conversion rate: (FCR) 7 or 6 kg feed = 1kg live weight.Feed ration: 40% compound feed (energy + proteine), 15% barley, 15% maize, 20% wheat, 10% strawCarcase yield: 0.57

19

M A R G I N E.U. E V O L U T I O NAnimal + Feed Purchase COST

Remainder of: Selling price AR 3,minus purchased calf plus feedcost for grain/ grass fattening.

0

100

200

300

400

500

| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |

€uro

/ hea

d

0

100

200

300

400

500

Remainder Young Bulls A.R 3 Extra gain of FCR between 7- 6 Feedcost x*7Feed conversion rate: (FCR) 7 or 6 kg feed = 1kg live weight.Feed ration: 62,7% fodder (silage maize), 18,6% grains (maize + wheat, 13,3% soja cake, 5,3% strawCarcase yield: 0.57

20

EU exports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

DestinationsCompared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-May 11

Turkey 204 0.1% 571 0.2% 70 370 14.5% 166 737 26.2% 43 107 21.4% - 51.2%Russia 102 347 35.1% 50 881 20.4% 135 762 28.0% 138 635 21.8% 35 579 17.7% - 36.8%Croatia 19 917 6.8% 25 126 10.1% 23 159 4.8% 24 969 3.9% 8 995 4.5% - 8.9%Sw itzerland 25 968 8.9% 19 072 7.7% 22 340 4.6% 26 431 4.2% 7 330 3.6% - 39.6%Lebanon 5 619 1.9% 7 838 3.1% 33 774 7.0% 22 568 3.6% 6 921 3.4% - 28.7%Algeria 1 689 0.6% 6 681 2.7% 16 151 3.3% 17 970 2.8% 4 833 2.4% - 49.5%Other Destinations 126 887 43.5% 125 591 50.4% 168 757 1.1% 237 927 37.5% 86 250 42.9% - 4.5%EXTRA EU 25/27 291 601 249 165 485 166 635 236 201 229

% change - 15% + 95% + 31% - 26.3%

2008 2009 2010 Jan-May 122011

T R A D E E.U. E X P O R T SBeef & Live Animals

21

EU exports of beef and live animals:Trade figures (COMEXT)

EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000 EUR)

171 03450 969

127 767

98 579157 198

258 950

256 611

341 416

2 205

279 241

837 733

627 260

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11 Jan-May 12

1,00

0 EU

R

Turkey Russia GhanaHong Kong Switzerland CroatiaOther destinations

EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe)

43 10725 912

56 282

35 57964 369

90 293

86 250

88 333

114 822

273 003

201 229

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11 Jan-May 12

Tonn

es c

w

Turkey Russia GhanaHong Kong Switzerland CroatiaOther destinations

T R A D E E.U. E X P O R T SBeef & Live Animals

22

Exports of BEEF products

0

10. 000

20. 000

30. 000

40. 000

50. 000

60. 000

70. 000

80. 000

|J an06

2006 |J an07

2007 |J an08

2008 |J an09

2009 |J an10

2010 |J an11

2011 |J an12

in T

onne

s cw

e

LI VE ANI MALS FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS

T R A D E E.U. E X P O R T SB e e f P r o d u c t s

23

EU beef Exports to TURKEYTrade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar

10

Apr

10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul 1

0

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct

10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

Fresh Bovine "Compensated" quarters Fresh Bovine (un)-separated ForequartersFresh Bovine (un)-separated Hindquarters Frozen Bovine "Compensated" quartersLive Animals TOTAL

T R A D E E.U. E X P O R T SB e e f t o T U R K E Y

24

EXPORT STRUCTURE EVOLUTION ( % share - GATT years )

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13*

Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Offal Tinned beefW02Source : Member States

EVOLUTION PER CATEGORY

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Offal Tinned beef2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13*

W02Source : Member States

( tonnes cwe - GATT years )

T R A D E ( Tonnes CWE )

EU EXPORTS – Beef & Live AnimalsExport Licences with Refunds

LIVE ANIMALS

FRESH BEEF

FROZEN BEEF

TINNED BEEF TOTAL

2011-12 : 892 5.232 1.577 0 7.7002012-13 : 20 3.699 674 0 4.393

( Tonnes cwe ) - ( W 2 ending 08 / 07 / 2012 )% Share ( W 2 ) 0,5% 84,2% 15,3% 100,0%

- 97,8% - 29,3% - 57,3% - 43,0%Source : Member States

G A T T Y E A R S

% Chg / Prev. Same Period

Σ Week 01 > 02

25

EU imports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

OriginsCompared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-May 11

Brazil 171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6% 144 791 38.2% 125 708 38.9% 47 963 39.1% - 5.8%Argentina 92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4% 79 487 21.0% 62 517 19.4% 22 221 18.1% - 20.3%Uruguay 66 402 16.8% 79 144 18.4% 66 156 17.5% 51 217 15.9% 22 180 18.1% - 9.8%USA 6 547 1.7% 9 609 2.2% 15 290 4.0% 22 914 7.1% 8 092 6.6% + 1.9%Australia 12 957 3.3% 16 937 3.9% 13 628 3.6% 18 017 5.6% 7 817 6.4% + 26.8%New Zealand 12 455 3.2% 15 783 3.7% 13 669 3.6% 15 387 4.8% 7 082 5.8% + 4.4%Namibia 10 348 2.6% 12 457 2.9% 13 571 3.6% 8 975 2.8% 3 339 2.7% + 58.2%Switzerland 2 919 0.7% 4 394 1.0% 4 450 1.2% 5 662 1.8% 1 801 1.5% - 28.2%Chile 2 550 0.6% 3 158 0.7% 2 441 0.6% 2 253 0.7% 713 0.6% + 57.1%Serbia 1 784 0.5% 990 0.2% 1 127 0.3% 785 0.2% 235 0.2% - 24.0%Botswana 10 395 2.6% 11 452 2.7% 15 763 4.2% 980 0.3% 0 0.0% - 81.3%EXTRA EU 25/27395 063 431 182 378 954 322 849 122 772

% change + 9% - 12% - 15% - 8.3%

2008 2009 2010 Jan-May 122011

T R A D E E.U. I M P O R T SBeef & Live Animals

26

EU imports of beef and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)

IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (Tonnes cwe)

60 548 50 893 47 963

37 67427 875 22 221

34 247

24 57722 180

21 928

16 44914 498

164 189

133 901122 772

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11 Jan-May 12

InTonnes

cwe

Brazil Argentina Uruguay USA Australia Other destinations

IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (1000 EUR)

186 877 206 334 218 227

185 475 197 035 177 572

123 849126 446 119 389

27 64748 822 62 224

89 10888 395 79 008

701 089633 614

696 721

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11 Jan-May 12

in 1000EUR

Brazil Argentina Uruguay USA Australia Other destinations

T R A D E E.U. I M P O R T SBeef & Live Animals

27

I mpor t s of BEEF product s

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

|J an06

2006 |J an07

2007 |J an08

2008 |J an09

2009 |J an10

2010 |J an11

2011 |J an12

in T

onne

s cw

e

FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS

T R A D E E.U. I M P O R T SB e e f P r o d u c t s

28

452403

446401

436 429 398

491 513 529565

513556

395 431379

323

123

1 263

1 1711 120

825

1 028

736

598 598

481 455

352292

248292

249

485

635

201

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 J an-May12

1000 Tonne

I MPORTS EXPORTS

Trade balance on beef and live animals

T R A D E E.U. T R A D E B A L A N C EBeef & Live Animals

29

W O R L DB E E F M A R K E T

E.U. I M P O R T SBEEF MAIN IMPORTERS

Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)

Main Exporters of BEEF Products (up to May)Un

ited

Stat

es

Unite

d St

ates

Aust

ralia

Aust

ralia

Braz

il

Braz

il

New

Zeal

and

EU

EU

Cana

da

Arge

ntin

a

Arge

ntin

a

Urug

uay

(up

to F

eb 1

2)

Urug

uay

(up

to F

eb 1

2)

Para

guay

Para

guay

Nica

ragu

a

New

Zeal

and

Cana

da

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Nica

ragu

a

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2011 (up to May) 2012 (up to May)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

30

W O R L DB E E F M A R K E T

E.U. E X P O R T SBEEF MAIN EXPORTERS

Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)

* EU was the 7th biggest importer of Beef products in 2011

Main Importers of BEEF Products (up to May)Un

ited

Stat

es

Unite

d St

ates

Mex

ico

(up

to A

pr 1

2)

Russ

ia

Russ

ia

Japa

n

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Sout

h Ko

rea

Sout

h Ko

rea

EU

EU

Cana

da

Cana

da

Turk

ey

Turk

ey

Mex

ico

(up

to A

pr 1

2)

Japa

n

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 (up to May) 2012 (up to May)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

.

31

Market prices for Adult Male Bovine in Brazil (Pecuaria.com.br), Argentina (Oncca) Uruguay (Inac) and EU

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

350,0

| Year2008

| Year2009

| Year2010

| Year 2011 | Year 2012 |

€uro

/ 100k

g

EU Beef A/C R3 AVG Arroba do Boi (6 St) (Pecuària.com.br)Novillos Export (Oncca Argentina) Media Res Novillo (Inac Uruguay)

W O R L DB E E F M A R K E T

Adult Male Bovine PRICES