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We are initiating coverage on Talkh Chikher (TCK:MO) with a BUY rec- ommendation and a two-year target price of MNT 30,529. This offers a 102% upside from its closing price of MNT 15,100 on November 9, 2015. In fact, TCK is now trading at its lowest level in 17 months, so this could be a very good time to buy beaten-down stock like TCK. Talkh Chikher has a 60% market share in bread and 20% share in pastry products in Ulaanbaatar and is one of the leading manufacturing compa- nies of the nation. Talkh Chikher is considered a “Blue Chip” Mongolian company and has been included in the MSE’s Top 20 index since it was formed in the 1990’s. The company aimed to develop its manufacturing process step by step, under the slogan “European technology into Mongolia” since 2004 and made renovations in the factories ever since. Their primary goals are to increase production capacity, grow with highest quality and new prod- ucts, lower costs and maximize efficiencies from invested capital. Talkh Chikher has invested USD 4 million in 2014 for the newly estab- lished complete lines of the “Baguette” factory, fully automated boiled products production line, flour transmitting and sifting system, packaging machine and automobile repair shop. Restrictions to drive on city roads by license plate number was a con- straining factor for Talkh Chikher and their ability to utilize full capacity for distribution of their products. However, this issue was resolved by the City Council from 29 May after 3 years and now their vehicles can make deliveries without restriction until noon everyday. Food production is mainly directed to the local market and there are fewer external factors associated within this market compared with the mining industry etc. The market has therefore continued to grow with consumer purchasing power and demand for new and better products. TCK performed strongly in 2013, growing revenue and earnings 21% and 61%, respectively and managed to increase them again in 2014 by 34% and 5% respectively. We believe that the consistently strong performance is the result of the investment made in new and modern equipment and an effective marketing policy. Despite these strong top and bottom-line growth rates, TCK trades at only 7.0x `14 EPS. Our two-year target price of MNT 30,529 is derived using a blended Dis- counted Cash Flow (DCF) method and P/E multiple on our 2016 earnings estimate. Furthermore, we have run a peers’ analysis for cross checking purpose. TCK trades at a large discount to its peers, despite being the leading company in terms of market share, manufacturing technology and quality. Major risks that TCK could face are flour supply and rising competition. The Mongolian agriculture sector is developing, but the country is still dependent on imported flour. An increase in flour prices will naturally cause margins to fall. The company has limited pricing power, as dozens of small and medium sized bakeries compete for market share in UB. Largest pastry producer in Mongolia Overview Established in: 1984 Industry: Bread and pastry Market cap (US$): $7.8 mn Closing price (MNT): 15,100 Rating: BUY Target price (MNT): 30,529 Total potential return: 102.2% Close: 15,100 52 wk range: 15,100/21,000 Average vol: 255 EPS (ttm): 2,281 TCK stock chart (3-year) Source: MSE, BDSec BDSEC JSC Mongolia’s Largest Broker Talkh Chikher (TCK:MO) Initiation - BUY 10 Nov, 2015 BDSec JSC Mongolia’s Largest Broker Key Financials (bn MNT) 2014 2015E 2016E Revenues 33.4 38.4 44.1 EBITDA 5.0 5.7 6.5 Margin 15.1% 14.9% 14.7% Earnings 2.3 2.9 3.3 Dividend (MNT) 120 130 150 Odbayar Oyunbaatar Analyst [email protected] Phone/fax: (976) 11-323411 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 MSE Top 20 TCK
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BDSEC JSC Talkh Chikher (TCK:MO) Initiation - BUY Mongolia ... · ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн

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Page 1: BDSEC JSC Talkh Chikher (TCK:MO) Initiation - BUY Mongolia ... · ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн

We are initiating coverage on Talkh Chikher (TCK:MO) with a BUY rec-ommendation and a two-year target price of MNT 30,529. This offers a 102% upside from its closing price of MNT 15,100 on November 9, 2015. In fact, TCK is now trading at its lowest level in 17 months, so this could be a very good time to buy beaten-down stock like TCK.

Talkh Chikher has a 60% market share in bread and 20% share in pastry products in Ulaanbaatar and is one of the leading manufacturing compa-nies of the nation. Talkh Chikher is considered a “Blue Chip” Mongolian company and has been included in the MSE’s Top 20 index since it was formed in the 1990’s.

The company aimed to develop its manufacturing process step by step, under the slogan “European technology into Mongolia” since 2004 and made renovations in the factories ever since. Their primary goals are to increase production capacity, grow with highest quality and new prod-ucts, lower costs and maximize efficiencies from invested capital.

Talkh Chikher has invested USD 4 million in 2014 for the newly estab-lished complete lines of the “Baguette” factory, fully automated boiled products production line, flour transmitting and sifting system, packaging machine and automobile repair shop.

Restrictions to drive on city roads by license plate number was a con-straining factor for Talkh Chikher and their ability to utilize full capacity for distribution of their products. However, this issue was resolved by the City Council from 29 May after 3 years and now their vehicles can make deliveries without restriction until noon everyday.

Food production is mainly directed to the local market and there are fewer external factors associated within this market compared with the mining industry etc. The market has therefore continued to grow with consumer purchasing power and demand for new and better products.

TCK performed strongly in 2013, growing revenue and earnings 21% and 61%, respectively and managed to increase them again in 2014 by 34% and 5% respectively. We believe that the consistently strong performance is the result of the investment made in new and modern equipment and an effective marketing policy. Despite these strong top and bottom-line growth rates, TCK trades at only 7.0x `14 EPS.

Our two-year target price of MNT 30,529 is derived using a blended Dis-counted Cash Flow (DCF) method and P/E multiple on our 2016 earnings estimate. Furthermore, we have run a peers’ analysis for cross checking purpose. TCK trades at a large discount to its peers, despite being the leading company in terms of market share, manufacturing technology and quality.

Major risks that TCK could face are flour supply and rising competition. The Mongolian agriculture sector is developing, but the country is still dependent on imported flour. An increase in flour prices will naturally cause margins to fall. The company has limited pricing power, as dozens of small and medium sized bakeries compete for market share in UB.

Largest pastry producer in Mongolia

OverviewEstablished in: 1984Industry: Bread and pastryMarket cap (US$): $7.8 mn

Closing price (MNT): 15,100Rating: BUYTarget price (MNT): 30,529Total potential return: 102.2%

Close: 15,10052 wk range: 15,100/21,000Average vol: 255 EPS (ttm): 2,281

TCK stock chart (3-year)

Source: MSE, BDSec

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MO) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

Key Financials(bn MNT)

2014 2015E 2016E

Revenues 33.4 38.4 44.1 EBITDA 5.0 5.7 6.5 Margin 15.1% 14.9% 14.7%Earnings 2.3 2.9 3.3 Dividend (MNT) 120 130 150

Odbayar [email protected]/fax: (976) 11-323411

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

MSE Top 20 TCK

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“Talkh Chikher Industrial Complex” was established 31 years ago, in 1984. Now it has 800 workers and 5 bread production lines, 3 pastry production lines, 2 cookie production lines, bread and pastry cooler conveyor, flour transmission/conducting full system and produces 80 types of different bread, cookies, pas-tries, cakes and confectionery. Talkh Chikher JSC has a 60% market share in bread and a 20% share for pastry products in Ulaanbaatar, making TCK one of the leading manufacturers in the country. Talkh Chikher JSC has always been included in the MSE’s Top 20 index and it came in 64th place in the Mongolia’s Top 100 companies in 2014.

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The company aimed to bring developments into their production process step by step, under the slogan “European technology into Mongolia” since 2004 and made renovations in the factories ever since. This investment program was the major factor allowing the company to increase production capacity, grow the market with new products, lower costs and increase efficiencies in recent years.

MNT 40 billion (~$20M) worth of capital expenditure has been made for devel-opments and innovations since 2004 with financing from The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Trade and Development Bank (TDB), Capitron Bank and Ulaanbaatar Bank.

USD 3.2 million of investments were made in 2010 to renovate the pastry and cookie factory equipment, which has led to a 400% increase in production ca-pacity and an increase in many product types. TCK has also increased its pro-duction of healthy and organic products which is seeing high levels of demand from local customers. Talkh Chikher declared 2015 to be ‘Year of Promoting pastry and cookie’, as the company tries to take market share from imports which have become very expensive due to MNT depreciation.

Innovation program

Overview of the Company

Talkh Chikher factory resides on 6.6 hectares of land

Source: Talkh Chikher JSC

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

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Talkh Chikher has invested USD 4 million in 2014 for the newly established complete lines of the “Baguette” factory, fully automated boiled products pro-duction line, flour transmitting and sifting system, packaging machine and au-tomobile repair shop.

According to management, they intend to continue their innovation agenda until year 2020. We are aware of no other competitor who are capable of making these kinds of investments, while maintaining strong profitability as TCK has proven.

New Baguette

Source: Talkh Chikher JSC

There are over 3,000 retailers in Ulaanbaatar to deliver Talkh Chikher prod-ucts every day. On top of that, the company delivers to rural areas such as Tuv, Darkhan, Erdenet and Selenge Provinces. Talkh Chikher also opened its branch supermarket in Bayankhongor Province.

The distribution is handled by the Company internally, with a fleet of around 100 vehicles. One of the complications in the distribution was that the decision to restrict the vehicles on the city road by license plate number with “no drive days” which was authorized by the City Council of Ulaanbaatar. The decision made 20% of the company’s distribution vehicles to be idle during weekdays. Recently government and city authorities changed the rule for the bread, pastry and dairy product delivery trucks to freely distribute until 12 pm noon from 29 May 2015. Distribution takes place in the morning and therefore we believe the resolution has made improvements in the delivery system and the company is now distributing at its full capacity.

Distribution

Distributors start their workday at as early as 5 am

Source: Daily news

Talkh Chikher in Bayankhongor Province

Source: Talkh Chikher JSC

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

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Innovation program:

• 2004: Fully automatic production line to for “Atar” brand• 2006: 2 fully automatic production lines to produce oval and square shaped bread • 2006: Automated equipment to cut and pack bread• 2008: Special equipment and vehicle to transport the flour from factories with no sack• 2012: Fully automated line to prepare fluid yeast using advanced technology, to add organic and healthy raw materials (carrot, corn etc.) for bread products• 2013: New packaging technology was implemented for the “Atar” brand• 2014: Baguette production line was introduced

Bread factory

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

TCK has 5 bread production lines with capacity of 60 tonnes a day

Source: Talkh Chikher JSC

Innovation program:

• Pastry factory has been wholly renewed in 2010 and 2 fully automated production lines have been introduced.• Pastry factory’s boiling house building and equipment has been fully renovated and flour system and boiling line have been fully automated. Also packaging line for pastry has been automated.

Pastry factory

TCK has 3 production lines for pastry with capacity of 20 tonnes a day

Source: Talkh Chikher JSC

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

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TCK produces 22 different types of cookies and 8 types of waffles as good as/substitutable to imported products

Innovation program:

• Sugar and hard cookie production line were introduced in 2003• Waffle production line and automated packaging machine were introduced in 2010• Fully automated cookie production line was completed between 2013-2014

Cookie factory

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

Source: Talkh Chikher JSC

1. Well-positioned in the marketCarrying out constant technological advancements and equipment renova-tions have led to product quality improvement, increase in scope of the prod-ucts and production cost decrease, thus brought company an enormous competitive advantage in the market competition. Moreover, TCK has good company reputation, huge market recognition, good marketing and strategy which has allowed them to always be one step ahead of the competition. We also need to mention that they are also broad-ening the whole pastry industry with what they are doing. We believe that TCK will hold its leading position in the industry in the long term and pastry industry will keep growing as economic situation and purchasing power of customers in Mongolia improve.

2. CapacityTCK has a capacity to produce 60 tonnes of bread and 20 tonnes of pastry on a daily basis and it is distinctive among its competitors with capability to produce higher amount of products.

Company advantages

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

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3. MarketingSince the beginning of the innovation program they have implemented, the Company aimed to introduce new products to the market constantly and most of the times it was very successful and those new products become everyday choice of the people. Also, by defining the product life cycle of each brand product accurately, the company is constantly increasing their market share by introducing new and better products. They are successfully conducting market research and forecasting consumer demand. We think the Company’s excel-lent management and skilled marketing team are the main reason to be this successful in the pastry industry.

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

Economic expansion – increase in purchasing power GDP increase of 17.3% due to internal and external factors in 2011 has de-creased dramatically to 7.8% in 2014. Furthermore, international organizations are saying they are expecting just over 3% economic growth in Mongolia in 2015. Mongolian Tugrik has weakened against US Dollar by 13.8% in 2014 and inflation or Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 11%. All of the above had negative effects on the purchasing power of the consumers. Although the economy has slowed down and the numbers were weak, Talkh Chikher managed to increase its sales revenue and net profit by 21% and 61% respectively in 2013 and 34% and 5% respectively in 2014.

2-year long negotiations between Government of Mongolia and mining giant Rio Tinto to develop underground mine of Oyu Tolgoi (OT) project has been finalized on 19 May 2015 successfully. OT’s underground mine development alone is expected to accommodate 3,000 jobs directly and 30,000 jobs indirect-ly upon initiation. If we sum up these employments and add their family, there will be an increase in profit of roughly 100’000 people. When in full operation, the mine is expected to account for a third of Mongolia’s GDP.

The Government of Mongolia is continuously putting its effort on other mega projects such as Tavantolgoi coal project, Gatsuurt gold mine, Railways, Eg River Hydro Power Plant and Thermal Power Plant no.5 on top the OT project. If such mega-projects move forward, the whole economy will see an expansion and purchasing power of consumers will increase through FDI growth, strength-ened local currency and employment growth. Local companies like Talkh Chik-her, which produces healthy and ecological food products, should benefit from such events. There will also be an opportunity for local food manufacturers to supply to such mega-projects as they expand their operation.

Opportunities

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

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Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

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Export marketMongolia is putting a lot of effort to boost ties with its two giant neighbors, Russia and China. Both presidents of the two neighboring countries have informed their willingness to support and develop the trade between the countries during their official visits to Mongolia last year. We see potential in export to Russia to grow with the current sanctions on trade between Russia and EU.

Moreover, Mongolia has made an Economic Partnership Agreement with Japan. In scope of the agreement, Mongolia has an opportunity to export its products to the Japanese market free of any import duties, due to new trade agreement.

We believe opportunities are opening for Mongolian manufacturers who produce international standard products to grow their markets.

Biscuit marketMajority of the cookies and waffles market in Mongolia consist of imported prod-ucts, with Russian products being dominant. Due to the trade sanctions between Russia and European Union we mentioned above, the amount of imported prod-ucts from EU is being reduced. As TCK has recently opened its new, fully au-tomated cookies factory, the timing for them to increase their market share and compete against imported cookies is very good.

Semi-processed products marketThe capital city, Ulaanbaatar is growing into a metropolis, home to over 1.3 mil-lion people, or almost half the population of the entire country. While an increase in centralization and work offices number grows, fast food is in high demand. The world’s second largest burger chain Burger King has just opened, following KFC and Pizza Hut. There are also many local fast food restaurants, most of them are new to the market. Following these developments, TCK sees a large opportunity to supply processed and semi-processed products to these growing fast food chains.

ProfitabilityThere have been plenty of investment or innovation program implemented by the Company in the past few years and we assume there will be no big capital expenditure for the next few years.

We also believe the Mongolian Tugrig will strengthen in the next few years, due to expected FDI inflows. That should allow companies like TCK to minimize their currency related losses, thus increasing their profit margin.

Outcome of the innovation programRenovations were mainly directed to supply more reliable products by reducing manual works, reduce fixed costs, and produce quality products at European standards and to increase sales. In times of economic expansion it would be huge advantage for TCK. In comparison with the competitors, TCK has more advanced and new technology.

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

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Increase in flour priceFlour is obviously the main ingredient of bread and pastry, making up 70-80% of total ingredients. There are many factors that affects price and quality of flour such as wheat yields which are different every year, price for imported flour and currency exchange rate etc.

Government of Mongolia has been implementing a Price Stabilization Program since 2012 in a bid to stabilize prices of key commodities and products such as meat, flour and petroleum. For stabilizing flour price, the GoM has been support-ing local flour manufacturers with soft loan for their working capital.

In scope of the program, agreements have been made with 17 local manufactur-ers, 11 of which took MNT 49 billion (~$25M) worth of loans in 2014 and agreed to keep grade 1 flour price at MNT 850. These local flour manufacturers had pro-duced 167.4 thousand tonnes of flour which supplied 70% of local consumption.

Such stabilization programs have been criticized by many economists and poli-ticians hence it is uncertain that how long it will continue.

Supply of wheatDepending on each year’s wheat harvest, flour gluten and flour moisture, there can be incidents to produce less quality flour that can be used in the food but improper to produce some flour products. For instance, the famous “Atar” brand bread requires minimum of 26 gluten and flour moisture of 12-14 and sometimes producers has to mix imported flour with domestically produced flour to meet such standards.

Currency exchange rate volatilityIn addition to flour, TCK imports packaging from China and some ingredients including enhancer, and different types of seeds from Europe. Dependence on imported raw materials is likely to increase the risk exposure of currency rate volatility and increase the production cost.

MNT depreciation has been a negative headwind on their financials, as they import most of their equipment from Europe.

Regulated pricing on Atar brand As the first ever bread brand, “Atar” bread is well known in Mongolia. Today the product has become so popular that it is now named as “strategically important product”. Atar bread is probably the only product that requires permission from the authorities to change the price, though the bread is produced by two compa-nies, Talkh Chikher and Atar Urguu, which have no state ownership. This price regulation limits the ability of the company to increase the price of the product and exposes them to smaller profit margins on the product, but it may also give TCK some leverage when it comes to do business with the government. For ex-ample, TCK last August signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Ministry of Food and Agriculture. According to the MoU, the Ministry will make sure flour manufacturers are supplied with good quality wheat and TCK in turn will keep its Atar brand bread price under MNT 1,100 for one year.

Risk

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

‘Атар’ дугуй талх

Source: Талх Чихэр ХК

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

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Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

We consider that the Company’s strategy to produce eco-friendly products for its consumers is very well thought and in line with local and worldwide trend of green movement and another step to reconfirm its leading position in the pastry industry in the long term. Using more modernized technology in the production will always give the company an advantage over production cost compared with the competitors and production of eco-friendly products will give company more distinctive advantage.

Management showed an interest in recent interviews its plan to enter and compete in a fast food production on top the traditional bread and pastry pro-duction.

The Company also plans to increase number of products for children and schools, which will lead to more diversified range of products and increased capacity utilization.

Food production is mainly directed to the local market and there are fewer external factors associated within the market compared with heavy industry. TCK has continued expanding its business for the last several years whereas mining companies here are struggling in the last few years. We expect the Company will maintain its growth rates in the future, thanks to its well-known brand reputation and pastry industry growth trend.

Outlook

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

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Our two-year target price of MNT 30,529 is derived using a blended Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and P/E multiple on our 2016 earnings estimate. Furthermore, we have run a peers’ analysis for cross checking purpose. TCK trades at a large discount to its peers, despite being the leading company in terms of market share, manufactur-ing technology and quality.

The DCF valuation suggests us a fair value of MNT 25,874 or 71% upside. By as-signing 10.8x P/E to FY16E EPS, we arrive at a two-year target price of MNT 35,184 (~133% upside).

TCK performed strongly in 2013, growing revenue and earnings 21% and 61%, re-spectively and managed to increase them again in 2014 by 34% and 5% respective-ly. We believe that the consistently strong performance is the result of the investment made in new and modern equipment and an effective marketing policy. Despite these strong top and bottom-line growth rates, TCK trades at only 7.0x `14 EPS.

TCK performed strongly in 2013, growing revenue and earnings 21% and 61%, respec-tively and man-aged to increase them again in 2014 by 34%

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Name Ticker Price Market cap /mn

MNT/

EV /mn

MNT/

P/E P/S EBITDA /mn

MNT/

EV/EBITDA

ROE ROA Gross Margin

Profit Margin

Debt/Equity

Estimated PEG

Talkh Chikher

TCK 15,100 15,458 28,859 6.6 0.46 2,748 10.5 11% 7% 27% 7% 61% 0.44

Atar Urguu

ATR 65,000 11,319 12,455 15.0 0.91 1,174 10.6 11% 9% 30% 6% 18% 1.50

Darkhan Khuns

DHU 5,000 3,089 3,701 42.5 1.12 124 29.8 5% 4% 27% 3% 45% 4.25

Average 10.8 0.69 10.6 9% 6% 28% 5% 41% 2.06

Peer group analysis

Source: BDSec estimate

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

(million MNT) 2014 `15F `16F `17F `18F `19F `20FSales 33,382.8 38,390.2 44,148.8 50,771.1 58,386.7 64,225.4 70,647.9

Cost of Sales 24,430.1 27,995.2 32,194.5 37,023.7 42,577.3 46,835.0 51,518.5

Capex 5,851.9 2,686.6 2,341.3 2,212.6 2,367.4 2,533.2 2,710.5

Operating cost 6,038.5 6,880.3 7,912.3 9,099.2 10,464.0 11,510.4 12,661.5

EBITDA 5,043.0 5,749.8 6,528.1 7,382.4 8,349.8 9,152.5 10,029.0

EBT 2,626.1 3,262.1 3,841.5 4,507.7 5,273.8 5,861.2 6,507.3

Tax (10% & 25%) 291.4 365.5 510.4 676.9 868.5 1,015.3 1,176.8

Net Profit After Tax 2,334.6 2,896.6 3,331.1 3,830.8 4,405.4 4,845.9 5,330.5

Free Cash Flow 162.9 2,550.0 3,009.5 3,869.4 4,451.4 4,901.0 5,396.6

FCF discounted @15% 15,390.9 Terminal Value @5% growth rate 56,664.6

Present Value of Terminal Value 24,497.7 Total EV 39,888.5

Implied Equity Value 26,487.1 Number of shares 1,023,703

Price per share 25,873.8

Cash Flow Projection

Source: BDSec estimate

Valuation

In fact, TCK is now trad-ing at its lowest level in 17 months, so this could be a very good time to buy beaten-down stock like TCK

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BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

11

Flour and flour products are one of the most used recipients in the Mongolian culture. Flour consumption per person per year is 86 kg for Mongolians com-pared to world average of 67 kg which is 28% higher.

Mongolia consumes 260 thousand tonnes of flour and 50 thousand tonnes of flour products per year.

Flour and pastry industry in Mongolia

Production of flour products in Mongolia (tonnes)

Source: NSO, BDSec

Bread and pastry industry have been developing over the years and recent-ly due to the technological advancement and the extended choice of healthy and eco-products, demand for pastry products is increasing. For instance, con-sumption of bread has increased by 39% in the last 4 years while the consump-tion of pastry has increased 46% in the same period.

Production of flour in Mongolia vs. import (tonnes)

Source: NSO, BDSec

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

6,000

11,000

16,000

21,000

26,000

31,000

2010 `11 `12 `13 `14

Bread production Pastry production

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2010 `11 `12 `13 `14

Imported flour Domestic production

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There are over 80 entities that produce flour products in Mongolia of which Talkh Chikher, Atar Urguu (ATR:MSE), Uguuj Chikher Boov LLC, and Stimo LLC are the biggest players in the industry.

Competitors

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

Монголын Хөрөнгийн Биржийн ОНЦЛОХ ХУВЬЦАА цуврал - ТАЛХ ЧИХЭР ХК

Bread market share

Source: Companies, NSO, BDSec

Pastry market share

Source: Companies, NSO, BDSec

Аtar Urguu JSC was found in 1941 by the name of “Factory for Bread and Pas-try”. By 1992 it was privatized with state holding 40% of its share and changed the name into “Atar” JSC and in 1996 the company name was changed to Atar Urguu JSC. In 1997 the company was fully privatized when Beren LLC bought the remaining 40% share from the State. Atar Urguu JSC now supplies over 30% demand for bread and pastry products in Ulaanbaatar.

Atar Urguu shares are now being traded on the Mongolian Stock Exchange with symbol ATR:MSE. The current market value of the Company is MNT 11.3 billion (~$5.7M).

Uguuj Chikher Boov LLC was established in June 1936. The company pro-duces pastry, cookies and candy, bread and flour products for consumers. The company supplies range of more than 120 products to the market by 18 chain stores and other distribution methods.

Bambuush LLC was established in 1993. Currently, it operates 6 manufac-tories with over 100 workers and supplies 50 types of products in the market. Bambuush has over 600 distribution centers in Ulaanbaatar city and Darkhan, Bulgan, and Tuv provinces.

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

Talkh Chikher

60%

Atar Urguu30%

Others10% Uguuj

25%

Talkh Chikher

20%Stimo20%

Atar Urguu10%

Others25%

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

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BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015

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Talkh Chikher Financials

Balance Sheet (`000 MNT) 2011 `12 `13 `14 2015Q2Cash and cash equivalents 94,743.4 127,595.4 260,717.1 162,922.1 180,258.4 Total Current Assets 11,117,993.9 13,276,246.0 8,019,907.5 9,076,183.4 9,913,628.7 Fixed Assets 11,173,238.2 20,600,513.6 20,728,160.5 26,580,011.5 27,283,803.2 Total non-current assets 6,765,508.3 20,600,513.6 20,728,160.5 26,580,011.5 27,283,803.2 Total Assets 17,883,502.2 33,876,759.6 28,748,068.0 35,656,194.9 37,197,431.9 Short-term debt 13,848,912.7 16,349,567.8 7,837,437.3 11,479,756.9 12,328,683.6

Long-term debt - - 1,153,466.0 2,084,629.9 1,284,860.5 Total Debt 13,848,912.7 16,349,567.8 8,990,903.3 13,564,386.8 13,613,544.1 Shareholders' Equity 4,034,589.5 17,527,191.8 19,757,164.7 22,091,808.1 23,583,887.8

Current Ratio 0.80 0.81 1.02 0.79 0.80 Debt Ratio 0.77 0.48 0.31 0.38 0.37 Debt to Equity 3.43 0.93 0.46 0.61 0.58 Price to Book 0.60 0.37 0.49 0.53 0.54

Income Statement (`000 MNT) 2011 `12 `13 `14 2015Q2Sales revenue 19,546,147.3 20,688,667.60 24,931,926.5 33,382,802.0 17,770,632.0Cost of sales 16,020,396.1 15,657,836.00 17,428,311.2 24,430,125.2 12,788,176.8Operational profit 3,525,751.2 5,030,831.6 7,503,615.3 8,952,676.8 4,982,455.2General and Administrative expense 2,470,660.4 3,419,243.20 4,774,477.1 6,038,509.5 3,198,945.6Net Profit after tax 869,751.9 1,385,664.80 2,229,972.8 2,334,643.4 1,492,079.7Earnings per share (MNT) 849.6 1,353.6 2,178.3 2,280.6 1,457.5Dividend per share (MNT) 90 100 110 120 0

Dividend payout ratio 11% 7% 5% 5% 0%Gross Profit Margin 18% 24% 30% 27% 28%Net Profit Margin 4% 7% 9% 7% 8%Return on Assets 5% 4% 8% 7% 4%Return on Equity 22% 8% 11% 11% 6%Price to Earnings 12.4 9.1 6.4 8.1 8.6

Cash flow statement (`000 MNT) 2011 `12 `13 `14 2015Q2Net cash flows from operating activities 1,099,128 58,263 -1,316,990.9 -1,033,696.9 826,445.9Net cash flows used in investing activities (2,658,357) - 2,682.7 11,133.9 619.9Net cash flow from financing activities 2,341,095 (25,411) 1,456,165.1 924,768.0 -809,729.5Net cash flow 781,866 32,852 133,121.7 (97,795) 17,336 Cash and cash equivalents at 1 January 746,737 94,743 127,595.4 260,717.1 162,922.1Cash and cash equivalents at 31 December 1,528,603 127,595 260,717.1 162,922 180,258

BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

Source: Talkh Chikher, BDSec estimate

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Disclaimer

BDSec HeadquarterZaluuchuud Avenue 27-18th Khoroo, Sukhbaatar DistrictUlaanbaatar, MongoliaPhone/Fax: 976-11313108Website: www.bdsec.mn

Institutional Sales & Research Departmentphone/fax: 976-11323411 mail: [email protected]

O.OdbayarAnalystemail: [email protected]

J.SainbayarDealeremail: [email protected]

Munkhtulga GanboldHead of Institutional SalesEmail: [email protected]

Nick CousynChief Operating Officeremail: [email protected]

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BDSec JSCMongolia’s LargestBroker

BDSEC JSCMongolia’s Largest Broker

Talkh Chikher (TCK:MSE) Initiation - BUY10 Nov, 2015