BC Issue(Oct)

The Horseplayer Monthly October/Breeders’ Cup Issue

There will be a total of 10 races (four Breeders' Cup races) on the Championship Friday program and 12 races on Championship Saturday (9 Breeders' Cup races). Championship Friday begins at 11:25 a.m. Pacific Time with five undercard races. Champion Saturday first post is 10:15 a.m. PT and also begins with three undercards races. The first Championships race on Breeders’ Cup Friday will be the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (2:25 p.m.); followed by the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (3:05 p.m.); the $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (3:50 p.m.); and the $2 million Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (4:35 p.m.). There will be an Ultra Pick Six starting with the Twilight Derby (race 4) and concluding with the Distaff (race 9). The Las Vegas Marathon Stakes follows the Distaff at 5:10 p.m. On Championship Saturday, first post time is 10:15 a.m., starting with the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes, the Golden State Juvenile Stakes and the Ken Maddy Stakes. The order of the Breeders’ Cup Saturday races is as follows: $2 million 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (12:05 p.m.); $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (12:43 p.m.); $1 million DraftKings Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (1:21 p.m.); $1 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (2:05 p.m.); $2 million Sentient Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (2:45 p.m.), $3 million Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (3:23 p.m.); $1.5 million Xpressbet Breeders' Cup Sprint (4:02); $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile (4:45 p.m.) and the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic (5:35 p.m.). There will be an Ultra Pick Six with a guaranteed gross pool of $2.5 million beginning with the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (race 7) and concluding with the Breeders’ Cup Classic (race 12). This year's wagering menu on the 13 Breeders' Cup races features an abundance of wagering opportunities including two Ultra Pick Sixes, a low takeout fifty cent Pick 5, 10-cent Superfectas, 50-cent Trifectas, Pick 3’s , Pick 4’s and Pick 5’s, a Breeders' Cup Distaff/Classic daily double and two Super High 5 wagers. "The Breeders’ Cup offers the best betting value of the year for horseplayers around the globe,” said Ken Kirchner, President of FalKirk International and the manager of the Breeders' Cup wagering and simulcasting operations for the last 19 years. “With outstanding fields of Grade 1 competitors and low priced betting options like fifty cent trifectas and Pick 3s, Pick 4 and Pick 5s, the Championships yield some of the highest pari-mutuel payouts of the year. The outstanding full fields will ensure that this year’s event

will live up to its moniker or ‘the best bet in sports’ ” Each Breeders' Cup World Championships race will feature a maximum of 14 horses and wagering interests with the exception of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, which is limited to 12 starters. In addition to the standard Win, Place and Show betting, there will be Exacta and Trifecta wagering on every race and rolling Pick 3 wagers beginning with the first race and continuing through all races on both Championship Friday and Championship Saturday. Among the featured wagers this year are: Breeders’ Cup Pick 5’s with a fifty-cent minimum bet value and a 14% takeout. The wager will be offered on the first five races each day and will give players a chance to cash a large bet for a small investment. The wager may carryover from Friday to Saturday and also from Saturday to Sunday. Last year’s Saturday Pick 5 handled $6,438,510 and paid $23,665 for a fifty cent wager. Friday's Ultra Pick 6 will have a guaranteed gross pool of $750,000 and Saturday's Ultra Pick 6 will feature a $2.5 million guaranteed gross pool. If no one hits the Friday Ultra Pick 6, the pool will carry over into Saturday's Ultra Pick 6. The wager may also carryover from Saturday’s program into Sunday. In such case, the Pick 6 would be a mandatory payout on Santa Anita’s closing day program on Sunday, November 2nd. Last year, Friday’s Pick 6 paid $106,839 for a $2 wager. Saturday’s Pick 6 paid $47,516. Breeders’ Cup race days continues to offer some of racing’s highest payouts. Trifecta and Sueprfectas continue to pay huge dividends. Last year saw $1 trifectas pay $3,710, $2,810 and $2,619. Superfecta payouts were $27,889, $17,140 and $14,718 for a $1 bet. A Special Daily Double wager linking the Breeders' Cup Distaff (race 9) on Friday to the Breeders' Cup Classic (race 12) on Saturday will again be offered. Other Wagering Highlights this year are: The Pick 4, with a 50-cent minimum, continues to be a fan favorite bet at the Breeders' Cup. Friday's late Pick 4 (races 6-9) will have a guaranteed pool of $1,500,000. On Saturday, there will be two guaranteed Pick 4s. The early all Championships Pick 4 (races 4-7) will have a $1,500,000 guaranteed gross pool and the late all Championships Pick 4 (races 9-12) will have a $3,000,000 million gross pool. The Friday Pick 4 last year paid $29,725 for a fifty cent wager. Here will again be a Super High Five wager on both the Breeders' Cup Distaff and the Breeders' Cup Classic. Bettors are required to select the first five finishing places on one ticket. If no one hits the Super High Five on Friday the pool will carry over to Saturday's and if no one hits the Saturday

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In this issue: Race/Wagering Menu – Page 1 Things I Love about the Breeders’ Cup – Page 4 The Cynical Guide to the Breeders’ Cup – Page 6 Keys to Success in Santa Anita Turf Sprints – Page 8 Post Position Analysis from TimeformUS – Page 12 Tonalist Tries to Duplicate A.P. Indy – Page 13 Handicapping the Classic in Two Minutes – Page 14 Mike Mayo Tribute – Page 19

THE HORSEPLAYER MONTHLY, BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE HORSEPLAYERS ASSOCIATION OF NORTH AMERICA

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High Five, it will carry into Sunday. The bet minimum for this wager is fifty cents. 2014 BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS POST TIME AND WAGERING SCHEDULE All Times Pacific Friday, October 31 1. Allowance 11:25 am WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Pick 5 2. Allowance 12:00 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD 3. GS Juv. Fillies Stakes 12:35 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Pick 4 4. Twilight Derby 1:10 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Pick 6 5. Damascus Stakes 1:45 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD 6. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) 2:25 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4 7. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) 3:05 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Pick 4 8. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) 3:50 p.m. WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 9. $2 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (gr. I) 4:35 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER Special DD Sup Hi 5 10. $200,000 Las Vegas Marathon Stakes (GII) 5:10 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER Saturday, November 1 1. Juvenile Turf Sprint 10:15 am WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 5 2. Golden State Juvenile 10:50 am WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD 3. Ken Maddy Stakes 11:25 am WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Opening Ceremonies 4. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) 12:04 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4 5. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I) 12:43 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD 6. $1 million DraftKings Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I) 1:21 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

7. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (gr. I) 2:05 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 6 8. $2 million Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) 2:44 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD 9. $3 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. I) 3:23 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4 10. $1.5 million Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I) 4:02 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD 11. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I) 4:45 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER DD 12. $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) 5:35 pm WPS EX TRI SUPER Sup Hi 5 Friday’s Pick 5, Super Hi 5 and Pick 6 may carryover to Saturday. Each wager may also carryover to Sunday November 2nd. Special Classic Daily Double on Friday race 9 and Saturday race 12, Distaff and Classic. BET MINIMUMS $2.00 - WIN, PLACE, SHOW, DAILY DOUBLE, PICK 6, $1.00 - EXACTA, CLASSIC DAILY DOUBLE, $.50 - TRIFECTA, PICK 3, PICK 4, PICK 5, SUPER HI 5 $.10 - SUPERFECTA Guaranteed Pools Friday: Pick 5: $500,000 (races 1-5) Pick 6: $750,000 (races 4-9) Pick 4: $1,500,000 (races 6-9) Saturday: Pick 5: $750,000 (races 1-5) Pick 4 $1,500,000 (races 4-7) Pick 6: $2,500,000 (races 7-12) Pick 4: $3,000,000 (races 9-12)

(Breeders’ Cup Press Release)


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Mike Adams (@GateToWire) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? Telescope – Turf – His best efforts have come at a 1 1/2. He has been off since the end of August with this race as the main goal. He has been just a step behind the best in Europe this year (Australia, The Grey Gatsby, Taghrooda, etc.) and having the best jockey in the world, Ryan Moore won’t hurt either. 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? Hootenanny in the Juvenile Turf. I am not sure Hootenanny will be the favorite at post time but if he is feel free to bet against him. This will be his first effort past six furlongs and I have serious questions if he can compete with these at a mile. His breeding (Quality Road out of a Hennessy mare) is typically maxed out at a mile. His sister Love This Kitty (trained by Michael Matz) has one win in seven starts and has never even raced past six furlongs. Hootenanny’s dam, More Hennessy only raced once and all of her siblings (seven of them) were all sprinters with next to zero success past six furlongs. 3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? I am always concerned about track bias on big days because it keeps happening at track after track. Hopefully the complaints from Friday last year will ensure a fair track. 4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: I’m a grinder so I feel that the BC value is in the Exacta pool. Full fields will give you value across the board making the exactas the right mix of value and ease to hit. I will dip into the pick three and pick four pools on BC day but sometimes stringing together three-four winners can be difficult. 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? Win and Exacta. Pick out a horse you like. Make a nice win bet and then play that same horse first and second in exacta wheels with four or five other contenders. Low cost, fun and a chance to win some nice money. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? Yes, I think the Euros will take all of the grass races except the Turf Sprint. The two-year-olds look good and the older horses should eat up the top US grass horses. 7. Who is your favorite longshot? Cigar Street in the Classic and Silentio in the Turf Sprint 8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? Yes, I think both Shared Belief and California Chrome figure to be big underlays. This should make Cigar Street and Tonalist both nice overlays who have big shots to win.

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By Dean Towers It’s that time of the year; the two day affair we all get ready for. Here are a few things I love about the Breeders’ Cup that I thought I would share. The Camaraderie – When I was in university, our abode was Super Bowl Party Central, and the place was packed. For my Breeders’ Cup parties the place is never packed – it’s hard to find like-minded horseplayers in this day and age - but I have always loved them. Getting together – at home, at a simo center or the track, or with our friends online – is a staple of this event. From morning until night we watch the races, play the races, share tickets, share hard luck stories or bad beats, and the odd time cash a nice ticket. This is not the Derby, or the Belmont; it’s a smorgasbord of betting that lasts all day, seemingly from dawn til dusk. I love it.

The Work – I work hard at Derby Day; I am up early and sometimes feel like I am the only person watching the nondescript opener at Churchill. But for the Breeders’ Cup getting up early means getting up two weeks before the event. The works, the pre-entries, the studying, the replays, the Euros, the chatter, the rumors, the track bias, the post draw, the ticket construction. It’s so cool. The Setting – I don’t care if I am watching a bog at Monmouth, a track I never play like Lone Star, or the idyllic setting of Santa Anita. The event could be on the moon and it gives me goose bumps. I guess people speak the same way of Melbourne Cup week or Royal Ascot, but I don’t bet either of them, nor have I visited them. I cut my teeth in the Breeders’ Cup. It’s ours. The Memories – We can remember a Derby, or a Preakness or a Woodward. But we forget a lot of them,

too. With so many championship races it is impossible to not remember seeing something special each year, at some point. I’ll remember Arazi’s move, Zenyatta coming from off it (twice), Sunday Silence bracing for the “oncoming power of Easy Goer,” and dozens more. Something always happens at the Breeders’ Cup. The Aftermath – I love the after-event chatter at each Breeders’ Cup. Someone doesn’t like a Broadway act singing some song, the national anthem, a ride, the TV coverage, the track bias, the weather, or a half-dozen bad beats. So much happens during this mega-event that there’s always something to talk about. It’s like clockwork and I love it. The Shot – What other event gives us the chance that being right can be worth so much money? For the smaller player they can hit a huge pick 4 or super. For a guy or gal that splits pick 6 tickets they can like a couple of longshots, key them, go deep in other legs and have a ticket that can pay (especially with a Saturday carryover like we see so often) a million or more dollars. Sure it might not happen, but it could happen. That’s the sweet sound of the Breeders’ Cup. I was a kid when the first Breeders’ Cup took place. I was far away from a place that took bets, and I wasn’t old enough to bet in the first place, but I was enthralled the whole day. Thirty years later I look back at them, think of the memories they brought me – both the good and the bad – and I can’t help but smile. I am unabashedly pro-Breeders’ Cup, and as long as they keep putting on the races, I will be there. It’s probably my most favorite sporting event, and I can’t see that changing anytime soon.

Did you know that… -Todd Pletcher is 7 for 103 -Christophe Clement, Ken McPeek, Patrick Biancone and Mark Casse are a combined 0 for 87 -If John Sadler wins this year, it would be his first win in 31 starts -Argentina has five winners from 22 tries -In 2000, the average win mutuel (Churchill Downs) was $35.30. In 1985, Aqueduct provided only $8.60 -In 1999, 2003 and 2009 there were only 1 pick six winner. The payoffs were over 7 million dollars. -No Breeders’ Cup winner has won by more than 14 lengths (Inside Information, 1995 Distaff)

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Jessica Chapel (@Railbird/railbird.org) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? I'm keen on Rich Tapestry in the Sprint, coming off his win in last month's Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Every time I watch that replay, I'm impressed by how controlled he was until called to run, and then how quickly he responded. He adds international intrigue to a Breeders' Cup race that doesn't have it often, and every indication is that he's continued to train well. 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? I was crushed when Game on Dude retired for this very reason -- for three years, he was my best bet-against. This year, the races are so competitive, I don't see a contender who's as likely a weak favorite. It'll really depend on what the pools look like. 3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? There was such an outcry about track bias on Breeders' Cup Friday last year, and there's so much incentive for a fair track (for safety, as much for handicapping), that I have no concern about bias this year. 4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: Any bet that makes the most of my best, strongest opinion. 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? The win wager, because it's the bet most likely to reward a newbie with a pretty payout and a chance to feel smart. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? There's no reason to think they won't be as effective on firm turf. 7. Who is your favorite longshot? Toast of New York, that world traveler. I thought his second to Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic was a very credible effort, and if he takes to dirt, I think he's a great exotic play. 8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? No. Shared Belief may be as favored at post-time as he is on the morning line, but the Classic field is strong and I think the public is going to be astute. If anything, California Chrome might be a slightly better price than he deserves to be (if you believe that how he won the Santa Anita Derby and the first two legs of the Triple Crown is more indicative of his ability than his Pennsylvania Derby flop).

Mike Dorr (@MikeDorr77/Blog) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? Cigar Street in the Classic. While I think Shared Belief is the most likely winner, Cigar Street has some nice figures from his three-year-old year, and has been deliberately pointed to this spot this year. I think the seasoning of a longer career will help the older horses like Cigar Street, Zivo, and Prayer for Relief make an impact on the race and boost exotics. 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? Goldencents. As the shortest price favorite of any BC race in the Dirt Mile, the reward for beating him will be the highest. I believe a speed-favoring track aided his run last year, and won stretching out. The stretch-out angle in the Dirt Mile has historically not been a great one - usually, the winner is turning back. I'm going to point to Tapiture in this race, thinking he's ideally suited for the Mile (and change) distance and has been training well. 3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? You could have asked this question last year and I might have said yes then too. I think there'll be a lot of attention paid to the track on Thursday and social media will probably be on top of it.

4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: The Exacta Box - big fields and pools means there's value to be found in exotics. 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? Win/place/show on medium odds horses - good takeout and likely to find a good overlay or two. Favorites and longshots get overplayed on big days, so the horses in the middle are a sweet spot. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? Likely so, especially in the older route races. The Juvenile races will have a different dynamic. 7. Who is your favorite longshot? Big Macher in the Sprint, or the aforementioned Cigar Street. 8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? Chrome, yes, but Shared Belief will benefit from the Chrome money. 2-1 probably fair.

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The bottom line is that it’s an athletic competition and these are top athletes – if they’re good enough, they’ll win regardless. Funny how well Michael Phelps does in the Olympics despite competing in other countries. Why? Because a pool is a pool whether it’s in Bhutan or Baltimore. The warmth of Arcadia is irrelevant; just ask Outstrip, Chriselliam, Dank, Magician, Flotilla, and George Vancouver from the last two years. -Those living in free societies outside of the regulatory gambling purgatory that is the U.S. have a great value proposition by having the ability to short Hank Goldberg’s picks via Betfair. -I’m sorry that Wise Dan, a true champion will miss the Mile. From a pure betting standpoint, it makes the P6 and late P4 a lot more interesting. -My two favorite sports are Horse Racing and Hockey and Eddie Olczyk is a good ambassador of both. Let’s be ever so thankful Mike Millbury isn’t a racing expert. -The CHRB has announced a special 20% takeout Daily Double linking the Classic to the third race at Cal Expo. -Whatever happens, win, lose, or draw, please put a microphone in Coburn’s face after the race and just step aside and let the man free verse. Ratings gold. -As far as Breeders’ Cup Ambassadors are concerned, I like Elizabeth Banks. A lot. -Be thankful there are a lot less top 5, 10,12,15,20 lists associated with the Breeders’ Cup versus the Derby. Apparently, there is less mass interest in who will finish seventh in the Classic than the 18th “best” Derby horse. Look for the first Derby Top “X” list to come out the day after the Cup. -Based on Wiseguy steam, Cigar Street might be 8-1 come post time. -Doug O’ Neill feels he was erroneously singled out since technically he was giving his horses Fribbles® rather than milkshakes. -If Trevor Denman/Larry Collmus both become ill and cannot call the Cup, I nominate Richard Grunder. Imagine this call: “Shared Belief, expertly conditioned by Jerry Hollendorfer under the capable reinsman Mike Smith skips along to a three length victory across the beautifully maintained Santa Anita Dirt Course. Ladies and Gentlemen, please turn your attention to the Winner’s Circle for the newly crowned Breeders’ Cup Classic Champion, Shared Belief…Sunday Forms are now available.” I rest my case. Rack em’! -Top level horse racing in HD makes a huge difference to the viewing audience. -Michael Chang is having a great year; trains both Rich Tapestry & Ken Nishikori. -There is a fine line between preparation and over preparation. If you normally spend 10 minutes a race and take 60 minutes a race for the BC, it’s unlikely to lead to better results. Fundamentals are the exact same whether it is a $4K claimer or $5MM marquee event. Stick with your regular routine.

By Jerod Dinkin Note to reader: Don’t take any of this too seriously. -Nate Silver ought to commission an algorithm to figure out BC pre-entry preference list probabilities. With that said I have a 99.3% chance of not caring about pre-entries and will wait until the fields are drawn in post position order. -Game on Dude was the greatest gift to Classic pari-mutuel value that ever was. While Bayern will fail to command favoritism with the presence of Shared Belief, consider him “Diet Dude.” -I will endeavor to avoid TVG over the course of the weekend, and as such, will be spared the constant referencing of Paul LoDuca as a, “four-time major league all-star”. Perhaps it’s a stipulation in his contract to mention this every six seconds or perhaps TVG feels this is good marketing. In either event, his MLB past is in no way, shape, or form relevant to his abilities as a handicapper or on air personality. As such, after careful consideration, I have asked my co-workers to address me as “three-time Clark University Intramural Wiffleball champion.” -Anyone know why the Filly & Mare Sprint is seven furlongs while the Sprint is run at six furlongs? The Breeders’ Cup laughs in the face of Title IX.

-Pay close attention to how ridiculous the commentary will be in reference to the European contenders. I recognize it isn’t easy to fill the time between races, but carefully note the overdone dialogue with questions about how the Euros will acclimate to the warmer weather, time zone change, travel, etc. Shortly thereafter this conversation, the gates will open and the Euro JV squad will kick the living bejesus out of the North Americans on the weeds.

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teach them to look for value without nearly as much risk as playing purely to win. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? In the turf routes, I expect the Euros to figure in strongly. I do think Stephanie's Kitten is a top contender in the Filly and Mare Turf, but aside from her, the Americans do seem to be missing a strong contender in the other turf routes. 7. Who is your favorite longshot? I'm most excited to bet Home Run Kitten because it's clear to me that he has an affinity for the hill, should get a nice pace setup, and has drawn well. He looks to be a solid value play to me. 8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? I don't think so. If you're a fan of either Shared Belief, I'd expect you'll get around 8/5 and maybe around 6/1-7/1 for California Chrome. Those are both playable prices, if you really felt strongly that either of them was going to win.

J.J. Hysell (@Trifectabox) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? Although she won't offer much value, I'm looking forward to playing Untapable, as she has looked phenomenal leading up to this Distaff. I also like Telescope in the Turf. 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? I don't see too many standout false favorites, but Secret Circle could be vulnerable in the Sprint. I like his stablemate, Indianapolis, and Rich Tapestry has looked amazing so far. 3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? So far the track has played fair. No worries. 4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: I always play the Distaff-Classic Double and superfectas with long shots underneath in the Classic. 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? My advice would be to keep bets simple so you can play more throughout the two-day event. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? The European contingent looks strong again this year. Play against them at your own risk! 7. Who is your favorite longshot? One Lucky Dane in the Juvenile 8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? Not if that's who you like. Profitable opportunities exist in bets such as Pick 3s if the Classic appears chalky.

Candice Hare (@CHare889/Blog) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? I'm most excited to bet Rich Tapestry. I've seen him run many times overseas and while I didn't know how he'd run in his prep coming off the layoff, I was pleasantly surprised with the result. In what I've seen of his works, he appears to come out of that race well and I believe he was drawn ideally here. With the primary speed to his inside, he should be able to slot in behind them while the speed horses who were drawn outside press forward. I really see him getting the run of the race in there.

Rich Tapestry - photo by Penelope P. Miller, America’s Best

Racing 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? I'm most excited to bet against Hootenanny in the BC Juvenile Turf because I highly doubt he'll stay the distance on top of being likely facing more early speed than he's ever encountered with the likes of Luck of the Kitten, and to a lesser extent Commemorative, in this field. 3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? I'm not overly concerned about the track bias. It's Santa Anita, so I always expect it to favor speed to an extent, but I doubt it'll be as clearly biased as it was last Friday. That clearly didn't go over well with the bettors and as we saw last year, they even fixed it the best they could for Saturday. 4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: I typically play doubles, so I won't divert from that just because this is a big day. All that chances for the Breeders' Cup is I'll play either a Pick 3 or Pick 4 each day depending on where I can spot a single. 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? Honestly, I think Show bets are so often overlooked on big days for bettors of all levels. More skilled players can pay attention to the pools and see overlays. For the newer players, however, Show bets can

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Keys to Success in Santa Anita Turf Sprints

By Lenny Moon Most tracks are fairly similar. They have a dirt track with a turf course (or two) inside and unlike many foreign tracks are flat. Santa Anita fits the mold pretty well; save for its one-of-a-kind downhill turf course. Races run at six and a half furlongs and one and a half miles on the turf begin on the hill before crossing over the main track and back onto the turf. For races at one and a half miles this is mildly significant because most of the race is run over the main turf course. For six and a half furlong races it's a whole different story. The turf sprints at Santa Anita begin at the top of the hill, take a slight right hand turn, cross over the main track at the bottom of the hill then move back to the main turf course for the final quarter mile. The early pace is almost always extremely fast, although not as fast as it appears because the horses are running downhill. The outside posts have the shortest trip because of the slight right hand turn so speed horses in the lower post positions are at a slight disadvantage. Position is critical at the bottom of the hill because the run home is very short. All of this leads to a few myths that result in horses being over bet that are actually at a huge disadvantage when facing horses with proven form over the downhill course. Myth # 1 - European Horses Have an Advantage While some European horses win over the downhill course the first time over it that happens more often in maiden or allowance races. In the four Breeders' Cup Turf Sprints run at Santa Anita six European horses have run and only one hit the board. This year Caspar Netscher is lone European representative and he will take some money after winning the G2 Nearctic at Woodbine in his most recent start but history says he will burn a lot of money and is more likely to finish in the bottom four than top four. Myth # 2 - Speed is King With a downhill run and a short stretch it's easy to think that speed is the best asset to have in Santa Anita turf sprints. That is not always the case. Of the four Breeders' Cup Turf Sprints at Santa Anita only one was won gate to wire. Speed was actually terrible for several years on the

downhill course but recently has returned as a winning profile. Through October 26th there have been 22 turf sprints at Santa Anita and the profile currently favors speed: E - 10 wins (45%) P - 6 wins (27%) S - 6 wins (27%) Of note, however is many of those races were maiden races and several had short fields (six or fewer). In the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint with a field of 14 I would lean towards horses that sit two to five lengths back after the first quarter because the early pace will surely be fast. In the supporting turf sprints, if the fields are smaller a preference to speed should be given unless the course profile changes. There are four turf sprints scheduled for the days leading up to Breeders' Cup Saturday so it would be wise to take note of the winning running styles in those races. The Winning Formula The winning profile for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint is pretty simple: the horse should have proven form over the course. In all six Breeders' Cup Turf Sprints the winner was a "horse for the course." In the four BC Turf Sprints at Santa Anita all four winners had at least one win over the course and the last three (California Flag and Mizdirection twice) had multiple stakes wins over the course. The one with a single win was Desert Code who won the inaugural turf sprint at odds of 36/1. Horses shipping in for the race that have no experience over the course should be eliminated from the win position and only those with exceptional form and class should be considered in the second and third positions. Additionally just as horses with proven form over the course merit extra consideration so to do jockeys. If a jockey is not locally based and has not been at any point in his/her career it's a safe bet to eliminate their horse. At the current meet the king of the hill has been Joe Talamo with five wins. He along with Tyler Baze, Rafael Bejarano, Martin Garcia and Mario Guiterrez account for 15 of the 22 wins (68%). A recent race over the course is preferred but not necessary. If the horse has not run down the hill recently the best angle for winning effort is turning back from a turf route. Horses that showed speed routing are usually dangerous in Santa Anita turf sprints and to a lesser extent so too are horses that closed from off the pace in a route race. To summarize the winning formula for Santa Anita turf sprints is: horse for the course + jockey for the course + recent race over the course or turn back from a turf route. Following that formula will lead to more winners than losers in Santa Anita turf sprints and hopefully will help you find the winner of the BC Turf Sprint and the under card stakes run down the hill.

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Seth Merrow (equidaily.com) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? There's no horse I'm really plugged into this year - but I guess for excitement there's nothing like a live longshot, however, I'm not sure Puca [Juv Fillies] lives up to the longshot moniker at the 6-1 ML price and Flying Tipat [Juv Fillies Turf] is stuck on the AE list. So - I guess I'll tip towards touting Rich Tapestry in the Sprint, if that 5-1 ML holds up. 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? I don't know if "excited" is the best word - but the anticipated short price on Shared Belief will kick up the price on some other logical contenders. 3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? I anticipate that after last year the team at Santa Anita will be more cognizant of how the track is playing on both days - and therefore the pronounced bias from Day One in 2013 seems less likely. 4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: My favorite bet is always the exacta box - but, I hit a very nice Pick 3 and a very nice Pick 4 at Saratoga this summer. Both are bets I've been playing more and more over the past couple of years - so I anticipate playing those more in the BC this year, particularly the Pick 3. 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? I think the 4-horse exacta box is a great play. At the $1 increment total cost of a 4-horse exacta box is only $12. With a $1 payoff range in 2013 of $9.70 to $369.60, 12 of the 14 exactas would have offered a profit for a four-horse box player. Five paid off at over $50 at the $1 increment. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? Last year the Euros won four of the turf races vs. US runners taking two. Total exacta (ie top two) finishes also favored the Euros 7-5. A similar result this year is probably likely. 7. Who is your favorite longshot? As noted above - Puca and Flying Tipat were on my radar, but circumstances are working against them as longshot plays. So, perhaps Partisan Politics [15-1 Juv Fillies Turf] and Startup Nation [12-1 Juv Turf] will become interesting. 8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? "Unbettable" is in the eyes of the beholder. I'm probably

not going to make a lot of WIN bets on the weekend on anything less than 10-1 - so they're both probably going to be unbettable to me. But, at 9-5 or above, Shared Belief could be attractive to bettors inclined towards that wager. And California Chrome mght be interesting at 4-1 on up. So, if the ML holds up - they're both probably about where they should be.

Craig Milkowski (@TimeformUSFigs) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? Calculator, still a maiden but ran well against the pace in FrontRunner, plus draws well 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? All the ML favorites trained by Wesley Ward. I don't think any of them will win. 3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? I always assume the track will be fair until I see evidence to the contrary. The new surface has to help. 4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: I'm a win and exacta bettor mostly, and stick to that on BC day. 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? Win bets no doubt. These are extremely tough races. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? Absolutely. 7. Who is your favorite longshot? Ria Antonia 8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? Probably, but Shared Belief is what I consider a solid favorite, not anxious to bet against him.

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By Dan Zucker The Seattle Seahawks crushed the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48, but the real highlight came out of Las Vegas 2,000 miles away. It was the first time in sports betting history that the overall Super Bowl handle eclipsed $100,000,000 in the state of Nevada. And while no one would question the Super Bowl is the biggest game in sports, it still ranks number two as the best single betting event each year. Check out the following chart below, this compares the legal amount wagered on the Breeders’ Cup as compared to the Super Bowl over the last five years.

Year Breeders' Cup Year Super Bowl

2013 $135,958,816 2014 $119,400,822

2012 $127,676,360 2013 $98,936,798

2011 $140,070,361 2012 $93,899,840

2010 $152,293,176 2011 $87,491,098

2009 $127,396,580 2010 $82,726,367

Sources: Equibase and Nevada Gaming Commission The Breeders’ Cup is horse racing’s Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup and NBA Championship all rolled up into two days. There are 13 individual races, segmented by age, sex, distance and surface (dirt or turf), each with a championship on the line. Not unlike the Super Bowl and the pre-event hype, the event is televised on broadcast for 8+ hours, however there is a different championship run every 45 minutes. On the Super Bowl, you can bet on either team, called the side or the over or under of combined points scored, called the total. These two straight bets would likely compare to placing a Win, Place and Show wager on a specific horse in the Breeders’ Cup. However, with 14 races, 10+ horses a race on average and Win, Place or Show bets on each, straight bet options on the Breeders’ Cup are significant. Sides and totals were once considered the only options for betting sports, however the Super Bowl wagering menu has exploded in the last five years, predominately due to the increase in popularity of “prop bets”. Click here to see a sample of prop bets available in Las Vegas for the Seahawks – Broncos Super Bowl. It’s widely held that player, team and game props make up at least fifty percent (if not more) of the overall Super Bowl handle, and that number is growing yearly. Bettors want action, multiple ways to win over the course of the game and prop bets do the trick. Add to that, an opportunity to make five or more times your money and

you can see why prop bets have fueled the Super Bowl handle explosion. The Breeders’ Cup has its own version of prop bets called exotic wagers. From picking the order of the top two finishers in a race (exacta), to selecting the top four finishers (superfecta), the Breeders’ Cup offers at least five of these exotic wagering options within each race. Multi-race exotics such as the Daily Double and Pick 3 provide a simple way for fans to pick the winner of two or three races in a row, and cash a big ticket. The table below represents the Breeders’ Cup exotic wagering handle.

Year Exotic Wager Handle % of Total Handle

2013 $92,599,805 68%

2012 $84,736,172 66%

2011 $93,260,768 67%

2010 $102,493,235 67%

2009 $82,658,986 65%

Source: Equibase It’s all about location There are over 200 sports books throughout the state of Nevada where you can bet on the Super Bowl (or for that matter most sports, including the Breeders’ Cup). Wagering on Horse Racing is available in more than 35 states and at last count, approximately 900 “brick and mortar” locations are available to bet the Breeders’ Cup. In addition, horse racing is the only legalized sport in the United States that you can bet online - these online websites are called “ADW’s,” the acronym for Advanced Deposit Wagering, and are easy to find via a quick online search. Betting on the Super Bowl and the Breeders’ Cup are as similar as they are different but one theme remains constant, it’s just as tough to pick a winner… About the author - Dan Zucker is a co-founder of Predicteform.com (formerly Equiform.com) as well as PredictionMachine.com. He was part of the original HRTV launch team and runs a sports media company, Zucker Media Group, Inc. based in Seattle, Washington. Zucker is a Thoroughbred owner and partner and has campaigned such runners as Quiet Meadow and Street Life as well as his current pride and joy, Pianist, a graded stakes-winning turf mare (who is headed to the Fasig-Tipton November Sale). Learn about the Pace Figures and the history of Predicteform.com here.

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Craig J. (@Derbyologist/Derbyologist.com) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? Zivo - 15/1 on a proven closer who can get the distance who has not run a bad race this year. Suburban effort was a legitimate race and people under appreciate that efforlt. Has faced all kinds of trips this year and can run inside and outside horses. Few weaknesses.. Expecting a full-scale pace meltdown with Bayern, C Chrome, Big Cazanova (if he draws in) and Moreno. 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? Shared Belief. This horse weighs 800 pounds, has foot problems, was noticeably tired in last race. Faces a 14 horse field with legit pace pressure, early, middle and late. This is a tough assignment, normally you don't "steal" the Classic. It takes a special three-year-old to win this race with only seven lifetime races. 3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? No, last year Social Media - spoke loud and clear and the track responded with lots of water on Saturday. The biggest stage deserves a fair surface, I'm more worried about post positions being a factor for many of the draws. 4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: Daily Doubles - small chance at overlays but most of the time you get fair value. Focus on one each day and you can track potential will pays. One double each day can make for a profitable Breeders’ Cup. 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? Daily Double. People can understand picking the winner of two consecutive races. Focus should be on identifying horses who can win - random horses can compose some of the vertical slots. The focus should be on the winning horses and winning bets that have a higher chance of cashing. Partial Wheels are cost effective for all bankroll sizes. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? Yes in the Turf and Filly and mare turf. Think the US can hold their own in the Juvenile Turf races with Santa Anita Course and pace of race. The Santa Anita Course and full field should benefit the Kittens! 7. Who is your favorite longshot? Zivo - Can close into a hot pace. 15/1 on the board. Palace in the Sprint had a very interesting trip in last race and could be live as well.

8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? The Jungle Fans and "Beliefers" will be out in full force - . Shared Belief will be unbettable. California Chrome will be bettable, the fans hate the owners.

Phil (@InsideTheNumbrs) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? Twilight Eclipse and Grand Arch. Both with great draws and figs that contend on their best. And did I mention the odds. 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? Close Hatches - last was awful and perhaps a precursor to even worse, happy to play against at short price.

3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? Will monitor how it plays those two days and adjust accordingly. 4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: Sportsbook parlays where you are not forced into pari-mutuel pick-N's that include races you don't like 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? Win bets. More than enough value with the big pools, no need to get fancy. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? Given my answer to #1, I guess I'm in the No camp on this one. 7. Who is your favorite longshot? Majestic Presence 8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? Yes.

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By Craig Milkowski, TimeformUS Post position is an important, but often misunderstood, piece of the handicapping puzzle. The following analysis is based on the last four years of racing at Santa Anita. Sadly, there isn’t enough data for races at nine furlongs or greater to draw any meaningful conclusions, but that still leaves nine of the 13 races worthy of analysis. The Santa Anita dirt surface was changed prior to the fall meet, but since post position trends are impacted much more by track layout than the surface itself, the older data is relevant. The analysis below is based not on win percentage at “general” distances like sprint or route, but on specific distances using Impact Values and Return on Investment (ROI). The former incorporates differing field sizes into the equation, while the latter adds quality of the horses drawn in each post. Post position stats should not be final decision makers, but they should be used as a means of upgrading and downgrading horses viewed as contenders. Dirt, Six Furlongs (Sprint) This distance favors horses drawn in the middle of the gate. The inside four post positions all perform below average. Posts five through 10 are well above average as a group with some minor fluctuations between those posts. Posts 11 and wider are well below average. Dirt, Seven Furlongs (Filly and Mare Sprint) The inside posts (one through five) perform well below expectations as a group. All others as a group are excellent draws, the farther out the better. Dirt, Eight Furlongs (Dirt Mile) Surprisingly, there are no real trends here. The inside wins more than expected, but also tends to be bet to do so, thus ROI statistics even things out. There is very little data outside of post 10, however. Tread lightly with horses drawn in posts 11-14. Dirt, Eight and a Half Furlongs (Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies) The rail has been a poor draw at this distance, but posts two through six are strong, seven through nine are average, and outside of that is poor with light data. Turf, About Six and a Half Furlongs (Turf Sprint) Posts one through five all perform below average. Posts six through 12 are very strong, probably the biggest post edge at Santa Anita overall. Posts 13 and 14 have not had enough runners for any real conclusions, but the trend would indicate those stalls won’t be at a disadvantage, at the least.

Turf, One Mile (Mile, Juvenile Turf, Juvenile Fillies Turf) The inside six post positions hold a strong edge at this distance. The rest are poor, though again, little data exists for the outside two post positions, 13 and 14. It is hard to imagine they would not follow the trend and be poor.

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By Track Phantom In 1992, A. P. Indy (Neil Drysdale) capped off a superb three-year old season by winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He defeated a full field of 13 rivals as the 2-1 favorite and did it from off the pace in a hand ride. The path that A. P. Indy took during his three-year old season is very similar to that of Tonalist (Christophe Clement), one of the main contenders in this year’s Classic.

Tonalist - photo by Penelope P. Miller, America’s Best

Racing Both colts have a royal pedigree. A. P. Indy is out of the champion broodmare, Weekend Surprise. Weekend Surprise is also the dam of Derby runner-up and Preakness winner, Summer Squall. Tonalist is out of the dam, Settling Mist. Settling Mist’s sibling, Easter Bunnette, is the dam of 2011 Horse of the Year, Havre De Grace. Both A. P. Indy and Tonalist missed first two legs of the Triple Crown due to health issues. A. P. Indy was the morning line favorite for the 1992 Kentucky Derby but was scratched on race day due to a foot bruise. Tonalist had a lung infection and was sidelined prior to the Wood Memorial. A. P. Indy returned from a 50 day layoff to beat six rivals in the G2 Peter Pan Stakes by five lengths. Tonalist returned from a 49 day layoff and beat six rivals in the same Peter Pan Stakes by four lengths. Ironically, both defeated exactly 10 rivals in the Belmont and did it in virtually the same manner. Both sat just off the lead, traveling in the top three or four in the early going, moved wide on the turn, dug in gamely and won in tight finishes beating major longshots on the wire. After the Belmont, A. P. Indy and Tonalist each lost twice prior to the Classic. A. P. Indy was defeated in the

G2 Molson Million as the 3-5 favorite and the Jockey Gold Cup as the 5-2 second choice. Tonalist lost the G2 Jim Dandy as the 4-5 favorite and the G1 Travers as 5-2 second choice. Christophe Clement removed the blinkers on Tonalist for the Jockey Gold Cup and the colt sat farther back than he had ever been. Despite being hindered when Wicked Strong lost his rider, he closed very strongly to win with style. Runner-up Zivo was also hindered by the loose horse but had a better trip and was in perfect striking position before being swallowed up by Tonalist. The pace of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic appears to flatter that type of late running style. If Tonalist wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he wins Horse of the Year honors….just like A. P. Indy.

Equibase Company has announced separate handicapping tournaments on Friday and Saturday of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships with $10,000 in total cash prizes. The tournaments are presented by TrackMaster, a provider of handicapping products including FlashNet, the Pocket and Tablet Handicapper, and iPPs, which are interactive past performances that are iPad specific. The tournaments are free to enter atequibase.com and open to anyone 18 and older. “With so many people playing the Breeders’ Cup, these tournaments are a wonderful way for them to see how their picks stack up against others, and potentially go home with extra cash and bragging rights,” said David Siegel, president of TrackMaster. To compete, players select one horse in each race and receive mythical $2 win and $2 place bets for each horse. Sign-ups and entries close approximately 15 minutes before the first race of the tournament each day. There are eight races Friday starting with the Las Vegas Marathon Stakes and nine Saturday starting with the Juvenile Fillies and ending with the Breeders’ Cup Classic. “We know from past experience that the Breeders’ Cup World Championships attracts the interest of avid racing fans as well as newcomers to the sport,” said Bob Elliston, executive vice president and COO of Breeders’ Cup. “These contests will encourage all fans to closely follow the horses as they prepare for and then compete in these outstanding races.” For more information and to sign up for the tournaments, visit equibase.com.

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Brought to you by horseplayersbet.com The 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic is unusual in that every horse entered has not raced within 30 days. Not quite sure, but this might be a first for a major stake race with 10 plus entries. 31-60 day layoff horses are hard to trust, and it makes sense to penalize horses off wins or good races (horse who finished 2nd last race or 3rd beaten 2 or less lengths), so as to give yourself the best chance to find a natural overlay. If you use speed figures, you can comfortably deduct up to two lengths from these type of horses. As for cycles, some believe a cycle should be based on 45 days, however, some use the 30 day cutoff. The system used here has a 30 day first cycle, and a 45 day second cycle, meaning that any gap in the second cycle of over 45 days from the last race in the 2nd cycle (there is no first cycle this year for any horse) is where the cutoff for ratable races occur. Using TrackMaster's past performances, here are the numbers for the race. Note: The best number in the first two cycles is used. Speed deductions are used for beaten lengths (one point per beaten length is deducted for races over 1 1/8, for races 1M 70Y-1 1/8 .66 points are deducted rounded up for each length beaten)

1. Prayer For Relief : Best race Aug 2 (113) subtract five for lengths beaten in 1M 1/8th race, final number 108 2. Cigar Street: 109 last race subtract five points for win 31-60 days ago, final number 104 3. Imperative: 102 from second last race minus five for lengths beaten, final number 97 4. Moreno: 124 earned in the Whitney three starts ago, final number 124

5. V.E. Day: 114 from two starts ago, final number 114 6. Shared Belief: 109 two starts ago, subtract five for win, final number 104 7. Bayern: 124 last race, subtract five for win, and another 5 because it is horses highest rating on form (another rule), final number 114 8. Zivo: 111 last race, minus three because it was a good race, minus two for lengths beaten, final number 106 9. Toast of New York: 105 last race, minus three for good race, minus three for lengths beaten, final number 99. 10. Footbridge: 102 last race minus two for lengths beaten, add five because horse appears better on dirt, final number 105 11. Tonalist: Last race was win and peak number on form, second last race results in better figure 111 minus 5 for win last race minus 2 for beaten lengths, final number 104 12. Candy Boy: Last race 115 minus 4 for lengths beaten minus 5 for peak race on form, final number 106 13. California Chrome: 113 minus 5 for beaten lengths, final number 108 14. Majestic Harbor: 101 minus three for beaten lengths, final number 98 15. Big Casanova: 109 from three starts back, final number 109 Of course, results for this system can vary depending on which set of speed figures one uses, but the idea is the same no matter what figures you use, it is to find long term value. Other things to consider is if speed is really bad on Saturday, that would most likely kill Moreno's chances, if there is a notable speed bias, co-2nd choice V.E. Day will be compromised. If the track is fair throw in Moreno and/or V.E. Day and hope for the best.

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By Dan Zucker I think I first heard the word parlay when I was eight years old, my grandmother said it to one of her friend’s in her afternoon at the horsey-zoo with her grandson. Its definition is so pure, whether referring to sports betting or horse race wagering, parlay simply means take the winnings from a bet and put it all on another bet. In sports, hitting a two team parlay returns about 5:2 and a three team parlay closer to 6:1. Find me a sports bettor that has never made a parlay bet and I’ll show you a horse player that has. So why don’t a lot of Breeders’ Cup players bet parlays? For that answer let’s look first look at the total mutuel pool handle for the multi-race wagers from the Breeders’ Cup over the last five years.

With Eight doubles (two horses in a row), Seven Pick 3’s, Three Pick 4’s and one Pick 6, there are at least two and as many as four of these types of wagers in each Breeders’ Cup race. And with pools that range from $300k - $3mm per wager, the value is in the multi-race wagers and not the traditional parlay (in horse racing it is defined as bet one horse to win and if he/she wins “parlay” the winnings on one horse in the next race). The graph below shows the multi-race payoffs as compared to the two dollar parlay over the course of the same races (Breeders’ Cup Saturday, 2013).

Of the 17 multi-race wagering opportunities available, there we only two cases (see red) in which the parlay paid more than the multi-race bet. And, both of those parlay sets were only 10% higher than the double/pick 3 respectively. The real betting value comes in the Pick 4 where the return is significantly greater than the four horse parlay. Over the last five years (since 2009), there have been 15

Pick 4’s at the Breeders’ Cup, and in only one instance has the four horse parlay ever paid more than the Pick 4.

Race: Pick 4 P4 parlay

Ladies' Classic '13 $1,616 $2,017

Turf Sprint $8,376 $2,464

Classic $1,526 $851

Ladies' Classic '12 $3,543 $3,347

Turf Sprint $7,031 $4,510

Classic $22,590 $15,667

Ladies' Classic '11 $23,429 $12,114

Dirt Mile $7,141 $5,773

Classic $187,256 $131,369

Ladies' Classic '10 $68,187 $39,886

Juvenile $2,199 $1,740

Classic $15,592 $10,485

Ladies' Classic '09 $4,267 $2,220

Juvenile $73,078 $24,866

Classic $1,504 $773

Source: Brisnet.com Even more interesting than the parlay comparison is the average Pick 4 Breeders’ Cup payoff. Since 2009, the average Pick 4 return has been $28,490! Take away that Pick 4 in 2011 ending in the Classic that paid over $187k and the Pick 4 average is still over $16,000. Even harder to believe is that in every Pick 4 listed above, there was at least one favorite winner (with the exception of the $187k return). And with minimum bet size of .50 cents in the Pick 4, there is no barrier to entry for any horse player. To determine Pick 4 ticket cost, take the number of horses in each race you want to play and multiply them. For example, 3 horses in each race is 3 x 3 x 3 x 3, 81 combinations x .50 cents is a $40.50 bet. So we know where the value lies, and the way to calculate ticket cost, now all we need is a location to make your Breeders’ Cup Pick 4 and of course, the winning horses. Visit Predicteform for that!


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http://www.superscreener.com/2014-breeders-cup-super-screener-picks/


16

By Art Parker for BetPTC.com This year we begin the fourth decade of the Breeders’ Cup. The 31st Breeders’ Cup, which is the most prestigious day of the year in Thoroughbred racing, will be held at Santa Anita this coming weekend. There will be a total of 14 races with purses and awards totaling $27 million. Many things have changed since the first Breeders’ Cup. Naturally, the horses have changed and the people have too. A few of the old guys are sticking around but none of those still hanging around has impacted the entire Breeders’ Cup story like trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The former high school teacher, basketball coach and quarter horse trainer is the oldest to win a Breeders’ Cup race. In 2012 when he was 77 the coach won the Juvenile Sprint with Hightail. Many of us marveled at the accomplishment. A little more than six months later he won the Preakness (again) with a tough colt named Oxbow. For Lukas to relinquish the title of oldest trainer to win a Breeders’ Cup race, he would need to be shut out this year at Santa Anita, and California Chrome will need to win the Classic for trainer Art Sherman. Lukas, now 79, will not be showing up at the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita just to see old friends; he will be there with several entries. And while he may not have the best chances in the world, no one will keep the most successful trainer in the world at home. His best chance will be with Mr. Z, and even if that one will leave the gate as a long shot, it should be noted that he finished second at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity to the highly impressive Carpe Diem. Lady Zu and Take Charge Brandi are two juvenile girls that Lukas has entered but should be long odds before the gates open at Santa Anita. But don’t let odds scare you, and don’t forget two of Lukas’ major scores in the Breeders’ Cup. Remember 1991 when Cat Thief stole the Classic 19-1? Remember 2000 when the filly Spain shocked us in the Distaff at 55-1? Don’t think that Lukas can’t do it again. In addition to Hightail, Cat Thief and Spain, here are but a few of Lukas’ Breeders’ Cup winners over the years. The list is impressive: Lady's Secret, Steinlen, Gulch , Orientate, Capote, Timber Country, Open Mind, Flanders. Lukas has started 161 horses in the Breeders’ Cup. He has notched 19 winners, and finished in the money (top 3) another 38 times. About the author - Art Parker regularly blogs for wagering site BetPTC.com. The ADW is offering up a 20% match on deposits for new customers this week only, using promo code HANA.

Lenny Moon (@Equinometry/equinometry.com) 1. What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? The horse I look forward to betting most is Telescope. He won't be a huge price but he has been pointed to this race since August by his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, who has had recent success in this race and he doesn't face any world beaters. 2. What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why? California Chrome will be an underlay because of all the uninformed money he takes. I believe he peaked in the Preakness and will continue on a downward form cycle. 3. Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? The main track has been favoring speed so far this meet, which is normal for Santa Anita, but I don't believe it'll be nearly as speed favoring as last BC Friday. I expect a track that will allow the best horses to win and will wager accordingly. 4. My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: The Pick 4 has been my go-to bet at the Breeders' Cup because it plays to my strength of picking winners rather than trying to find horses to run 2-3-4. 5. What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? For those new to the sport or with a limited bankroll I strongly suggest focusing on Win/Place, Exacta and Daily Double bets. Keep it simple and if you hit one or two races you'll come out ahead. 6. The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? As mentioned above I love Telescope in the BC Turf. I also think Euros could take down four of the other five turf races. Outside the turf sprint a Euro win would not shock me. My over/under is four Euro wins. 7. Who is your favorite longshot? Remember Cat Thief, the perennial runner-up? He always ran well but not well enough to win the big one. Then he shocked the world in the BC Classic. I think Candy Boy could be this year’s Cat Thief. The pace will be fast, the distance suits and if he gets a clean trip there's no reason he can't upset the BC Classic and create chaos in the race for champion 3 year old and Horse of the Year. 8. Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? As I said above California Chrome is on a downward slope and I don't think he has very much chance of winning. He will be the worst underlay on the card. Shared Belief is on the opposite trajectory and has every chance of winning. If he goes off at 2/1 or higher he's worth a bet, although I doubt that will happen.

http://betptc.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lady%27s_Secret

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steinlen_(horse)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulch_(horse)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orientate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Mind_(horse)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flanders_(horse)

http://betptc.com/

https://twitter.com/Equinometry

http://t.co/lJDSbugWNP


17

Brought to you by Meadowlands Racetrack/PlayMeadowlands.com

The 2014 Breeders Crown at the Meadowlands will be raced over two nights in November, with the year-end championships divided into a four-race block of distaff races on Friday (Nov. 21) and the remaining eight championship races held Saturday (Nov. 22). The $500,000 Breeders Crown Trot and Pace for three-year-old fillies, and a pair of $250,000 Crowns for mare pacers and trotters will be raced on Friday night. All four $500,000 two-year-old events, the $500,000 sophomore colt pace and trot and the $400,000 Crown Pace and $500,000 Crown Trot will be raced on Saturday night. “We are very proud to bring the Breeders Crown back to the Meadowlands,” said Meadowlands Chairman Jeff Gural. “Expanding the event to two nights is something I am very excited about. It creates a weekend of championship racing and gives us an opportunity to be very innovative with new kinds of wagers, promotions and an opportunity to make the Breeders Crown experience even better for our customers. “The new facility at Meadowlands Racing & Entertainment offers excellent dining options including Pink, featuring the highest quality of food and Trotters, an owners club, where owners of horses racing in the Breeders Crown can enjoy elegant dining in a wonderful atmosphere while watching their horses compete. “Many will take advantage of our luxurious sky box suites to watch the races. In addition, fans will be able to enjoy the Breeders Crown in high-definition at the Meadowlands and can watch the championship races on massive 12 by 20 foot high-definition screens in Victory Sports Bar. This will be a Breeders Crown experience unlike any other.” Tom Charters, president of The Hambletonian Society, which owns and administrates the Breeders Crown series, is familiar with the demands of staging the event at rotating host tracks, as well as the Society’s flexibility in presenting the event. “The Breeders Crown has been conducted in just about every format -- single races, blocks of races, all 12 races on one night -- and we try always to be sensitive to host track parameters while still getting the most “bang” out of the event in regard to publicity, TV and promotions,” said Charters. “The Meadowlands Racetrack has been home to many of harness racing’s most important events over the past 30 years. We look forward to the return of the Breeders Crown under Jeff Gural's management and especially look forward to the new facility. The horsemen of New Jersey and the SBOA of NJ realize the importance of stakes racing in maintaining the profile of the New Meadowlands and have always been supportive of our efforts.”

Wager debuts at The Meadowlands on November 15 with 8% Takeout The Meadowlands is pleased to announce the addition of a new wager to its wagering menu. It is a Super High-Five Jackpot that will be offered with a $.20 cent minimum on the last race of each racing program. The wager will offer an industry low takeout rate of eight-percent (8%) and the pool will be seeded with $10,000 on its first night being offered, Friday November 14

th.

“The W.E.G. circuit implemented this wager this past year and it has had great success,” said Director of Racing Operations Darin Zoccali. “The jackpot wager has really caught-on throughout North America and we will take it a step further by implementing an industry low takeout rate of just eight percent.” “We are a supporter of the low takeout movement that is currently taking place,” Zoccali added. “But it needs industry-wide support to be successful. We are optimistic that this wager will prove extremely successful and will pave the way to lower takeout wagers in the future.” The Meadowlands will also give back more each night. “Our carryover will be 25 percent each day as opposed to the standard 45 to 50 percent this wager typically carries,” said Zoccali. “We believe that the low takeout combined with paying out a larger portion of the pool each night will create more handle and larger payouts on a nightly basis. Additionally, the pool will be seeded with $10,000 initially which further reduces actual takeout.” Meadowlands General Manager and C.E.O. Jason Settelmoir explains that the 8% takeout figure has significant meaning. “Having worked at Tioga Downs and Vernon Downs since 2006, I have become well versed on the ‘casino’ aspect of gaming. The average takeout rate of slot machines or V.L.T.’s throughout the country is 8% and while horse racing is a more intellectual game, the result is the same, more churn and more money in our customers pockets.” Meadowlands Chairman Jeff Gural touched on the success the wager has had at Woodbine and Mohawk. “On the two nights they have had mandatory payouts, there was around $2 Million bet. Given that The Meadowlands is the highest handling standardbred signal, tied into an 8% takeout rate, with a mandatory payout on Hambletonian Day, assuming the bet carries over throughout the meet, I am certain it will be the biggest pool in harness racing history.” The Super High-Five is pending regulatory approval and is scheduled to begin on Friday November 14, 2014. Details on the wager are available here. (Hambletonian Society Release and Meadowlands Release)



http://www.hambletonian.org/

http://www.playmeadowlands.com/

http://www.thebigm.com/news.aspx?id=11885

http://meadowlandsracetrack.com/event_detail.aspx?id=11851


19

By Ken Massa We all recount our bad beats and rotten luck while betting horses. Mike Mayo, in great health and a non-smoker, at age 59, was struck with the worst kind of bad luck any of us will ever experience. A rare and aggressive form of cancer (balasoid) was growing in his lungs and liver and could not be treated. He died on Sept. 18, 2014, just 72 days after his diagnosis in July.

Mike Mayo – NTRA photo

Prior to his cancer diagnosis, Mike had planned out his entire year and it reads like a nirvana for horseplayers. Beginning in late July he would speak at the annual HTR Seminar and participate in the Gold Coast tournament. He would then drive to Del Mar for the major live money tournament there. He and wife Marsha had rented a time-share in Carlsbad (20 minutes north of Del Mar) every August for a month of golf, horses and relaxation. During that period he would drive back to Vegas for the Wynn Turf & Surf tourney, which was one of his favorite contests. Mike had bought an RV and was making regular trips to Kentucky and had planned to drive to Lexington for the Keeneland fall meet. He was so fond of the on-track experience and had decided that he would no longer bet online. The Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita was on his agenda as was a return trip to Del Mar in November for the newly created winter meet there. His 60th birthday would have been on Nov. 4 and a party was planned at the track. In January, Mike would attend NHC championship at Treasure Island as the Player's Committee represented of the NTRA. The Horseplayer World Series would follow in the spring and he would resume his regular box at Lone Star Park near his home in Dallas as well. Unfortunately for Mike, the 2014 summer at Del Mar would be his last, but he was able to enjoy it one final time with his family and friends before returning to home and entering hospice care. We'll remember Mike as a leader and trusted friend. He loved the Thoroughbred game and sincerely wanted to help improve the quality of the experience for horseplayers through tournaments and on-track customer relations. Goodbye Mike, we'll miss your passion and energy and your big heart. Mike documented his cancer experience. The PDF letters can be read here and here (PDF).

Longtime handicapper and author Barry Meadow has secured the first-ever Ron Rippey Award for Handicapping Media for his piece, "Statistics and Garbage," that appeared in the Horseplayers Association of North America newsletter. Brisnet.com will present Meadow with the Rippey Award and a $1,000 cash prize at the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters dinner on Wednesday, October 29, at The Derby in Arcadia, California. "My goal in the article was to help handicappers think about the statistics they consider every day and encourage them to ask the right questions," said Meadow, who is best known for his Money Secrets at the Racetrack and as a horseplayer advocate. "I'm delighted that articles aimed at players now have their own separate category for recognition. Sure, the game needs owners and breeders and trainers and all the rest, but it's great that pieces designed to help handicappers will be honored as well." Two entries received honorable mentions from judges Steve Byk, Jessica Chapel, and Paul Rolfes: Byron King for "Which Trainers Produce with Horses 4-to-1 or Less" that appeared in Daily Racing Form, and Nick Tammaro for "Pace is Key in Jockey Club Gold Cup Showdown" that appeared on ThoroughbredRacing.com. "An interesting group of entries with many taking different approaches but almost all providing valuable insights to their intended audiences," Rolfes said of the Rippey Award submissions. "(Meadow's) 'Statistics and Garbage' gets the top nod for providing some keen insights into what Mark Twain might call 'lies, damned lies, and statistics.'" The inaugural Ron Rippey Award for Handicapping Media was open to any article, blog post, or video pertaining to handicapping published -- in print or online -- in the past year. "Handicapping horse races is both an art and a science, and the ability to produce compelling content about the topic is a specialty that deserves recognition," Brisnet.com Director of Marketing Ed DeRosa said. "We not only want to acknowledge the good work done in this regard but also encourage people to continue to produce this type of content, and who better to honor than successful handicapper and newspaper columnist Ron Rippey." Rippey won the 2006 National Handicapping Championship, was a 10-time qualifier for the prestigious annual event, and a beloved regular on the contest circuit. He also wrote about racing and made picks for theNewark Star-Ledger and contributed Spotlight Selections to Brisnet.com for major race days. Rippey died August 26. For more information on attending the NTWAB dinner, visit NTWAB.org.

(Brisnet release)

http://htr2.com/km/pdf/Family_and_Friend_letter.pdf

http://htr2.com/km/pdf/MM_Update_letter_Sept_4.pdf

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=46661


http://horseplayersassociation.org/decissue.pdf

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/HTML/brisnet.html



http://ntwab.org/


20

Breeders’ Cup Stats

ABOUT THE STATS PRESENTED BELOW

The stats presented below came from a database compiled using data from HDW (Handicappers Data Warehouse.)

The database itself contains the most recent five years of Breeders Cup history and includes both the Friday and

Saturday Breeders Cup cards for calendar years 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.

RIDERS WHO KNOW THEIR MOUNTS

Oddly enough, one thing that makes sense about BC Graded Stakes is that riders who are

familiar with their mounts have historically outperformed riders with fewer starts on

their mounts. The following table shows that, over the past 5 years, riders going to

the starting gate in a BC Graded Stakes for the 1st or 2nd time on a horse are up

against it - having won at just a 7 or 8 pct clip.

While at the same time, riders heading to the starting gate for the 7th or 8th time

on a mount have won at a 20+ pct clip (at nice prices too.)

By: Xth Start For Rider

Start # P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

1 -122.80 434.00 0.7171 15 217 .0691 0.7667

2 -121.20 318.00 0.6189 13 159 .0818 0.9069

3 11.80 266.00 1.0444 10 133 .0752 0.8340

4 -80.40 176.00 0.5432 2 88 .0227 0.2521

5 -17.80 138.00 0.8710 6 69 .0870 0.9645

6 -15.40 108.00 0.8574 7 54 .1296 1.4379

7 37.20 48.00 1.7750 5 24 .2083 2.3109

8 116.60 62.00 2.8806 7 31 .2258 2.5047

9 155.40 48.00 4.2375 4 24 .1667 1.8487

10 26.20 48.00 1.5458 3 24 .1250 1.3865

11+ -15.00 40.00 0.6250 4 20 .2000 2.2184

****************************************************************************************

BY RIDER sorted by wins Run Date: 10/25/2014 10:47:47 AM

****************************************************************************************

WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE

UDM PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI

****************************************************************************************

SMITH MIKE E 41 8 0.1951 2.1641 1.4585 12 0.2927 1.0585

VELAZQUEZ JOHN R 57 6 0.1053 1.168 0.9561 14 0.2456 0.8579

GOMEZ GARRETT K 43 6 0.1395 1.5473 1.0372 12 0.2791 0.9512

MOORE RYAN L 25 5 0.2 2.2184 1.632 7 0.28 1.088

LEPAROUX JULIEN R 48 4 0.0833 0.924 0.8125 7 0.1458 0.7708

MARAGH RAJIV 20 3 0.15 1.6638 0.675 3 0.15 0.355

CASTELLANO JAVIER 44 3 0.0682 0.7565 1.1091 8 0.1818 0.8614

NAKATANI COREY S 19 3 0.1579 1.7514 1.1947 5 0.2632 0.8895

STEVENS GARY L 10 3 0.3 3.3276 1.21 4 0.4 0.96

DOMINGUEZ RAMON A 30 2 0.0667 0.7398 0.88 8 0.2667 0.8633

THERIOT JAMIE 5 2 0.4 4.4368 3.5 2 0.4 1.74

BEJARANO RAFAEL 39 2 0.0513 0.569 0.2487 6 0.1538 0.5205

ESPINOZA VICTOR 17 2 0.1176 1.3044 1.2059 2 0.1176 0.4706

DETTORI LANFRANCO 21 2 0.0952 1.056 0.6143 3 0.1429 0.4667

GARCIA MARTIN 25 2 0.08 0.8874 0.6 3 0.12 0.376

ROSARIO JOEL 47 2 0.0426 0.4725 1.383 10 0.2128 1.2064

ALBARADO ROBBY 20 2 0.1 1.1092 3.7 4 0.2 1.875

PESLIER OLIVIER 7 2 0.2857 3.169 0.6714 2 0.2857 0.5143

SANCHEZ JEFFREY 4 1 0.25 2.773 1.3 1 0.25 0.675

HUGHES RICHARD 8 1 0.125 1.3865 0.9875 1 0.125 0.4875

OBRIEN JOSEPH PATRIC5 1 0.2 2.2184 1.56 1 0.2 0.72

HERNANDEZ JR BRIAN J3 1 0.3333 3.697 3.4667 1 0.3333 1.6333

AJTEBI AHMED 4 1 0.25 2.773 7.9 1 0.25 3.05

MARTINEZ WILLIE 2 1 0.5 5.5461 7.35 1 0.5 3.3

PRADO EDGAR S 8 1 0.125 1.3865 5.875 1 0.125 1.3625

GRYDER AARON T 2 1 0.5 5.5461 9.1 1 0.5 4

LEZCANO JOSE 13 1 0.0769 0.853 0.2462 4 0.3077 1.6154

QUEALLY THOMAS P 5 1 0.2 2.2184 0.66 2 0.4 0.8

COA EIBAR 1 1 1 11.0921 6.2 1 1 3.5

DESORMEAUX KENT J 17 1 0.0588 0.6522 0.5 2 0.1176 0.5471

VELASQUEZ CORNELIO H5 1 0.2 2.2184 8.52 1 0.2 3.58

NAPRAVNIK ROSIE 3 1 0.3333 3.697 0.7667 1 0.3333 0.5667

LEMAIRE CHRISTOPHE P6 1 0.1667 1.8491 2.0667 1 0.1667 0.9

LEYVA JUAN C 2 1 0.5 5.5461 10.6 1 0.5 3.9


21

BARN CHANGE

Oddly enough, BC Stakes horses with just 1 or 2 previous starts for a new barn

have historically outperformed horses with 3 or more starts for their barns.

Also, oddly enough, BC Stakes horses that have been in the same barn forever -

those with 11 or more starts for the the same barn - have historically outperformed

the competition.

By: Xth Start For Trainer

Start # P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

1 85.00 90.00 1.9444 7 45 .1556 1.7254

2 198.80 58.00 4.4276 4 29 .1379 1.5299

3 -100.00 144.00 0.3056 3 72 .0417 0.4622

4 -141.00 154.00 0.0844 2 77 .0260 0.2881

5 -13.60 142.00 0.9042 8 71 .1127 1.2498

6 -39.40 104.00 0.6212 4 52 .0769 0.8532

7 -87.20 92.00 0.0522 1 46 .0217 0.2411

8 -57.60 90.00 0.3600 3 45 .0667 0.7395

9 -53.80 98.00 0.4510 4 49 .0816 0.9055

10 -42.80 114.00 0.6246 5 57 .0877 0.9730

11+ 226.20 600.00 1.3770 35 300 .1167 1.2941

****************************************************************************************

BY TRAINER sorted by wins Run Date: 10/25/2014 10:48:37 AM

****************************************************************************************



****************************************************************************************

PLETCHER TODD A 50 4 0.08 0.8874 0.534 9 0.18 0.674

OBRIEN AIDAN P 35 4 0.1143 1.2678 1.2629 5 0.1429 0.7171

MOTT WILLIAM I 21 4 0.1905 2.113 1.4381 8 0.381 1.5714

ASMUSSEN STEVEN M 17 3 0.1765 1.9578 1.3353 6 0.3529 1.1176

SHIRREFFS JOHN A 11 3 0.2727 3.0248 2 4 0.3636 1.1364

LOPRESTI CHARLES 5 2 0.4 4.4368 0.92 3 0.6 1.58

ROMANS DALE L 15 2 0.1333 1.4786 5.6067 3 0.2 2.24

PUYPE MIKE 4 2 0.5 5.5461 2.9 2 0.5 1.475

HEAD FREDERIC 5 2 0.4 4.4368 0.94 2 0.4 0.72

MAKER MICHAEL J 10 2 0.2 2.2184 3.04 2 0.2 1.25

MANDELLA RICHARD E 10 2 0.2 2.2184 0.87 4 0.4 1.55

STOUTE SIR MICHAEL R5 2 0.4 4.4368 0.88 3 0.6 1.14

CALHOUN W BRET 3 2 0.6667 7.3951 5.8333 2 0.6667 2.9

STALL JR ALBERT M 6 2 0.3333 3.697 1.4333 2 0.3333 0.6167

HOLLENDORFER JERRY 13 2 0.1538 1.706 3.3538 4 0.3077 1.7308

CATALANO WAYNE M 7 2 0.2857 3.169 2.2143 2 0.2857 1.1143

BAFFERT BOB 36 2 0.0556 0.6167 0.4167 6 0.1667 0.5583

REID JR ROBERT E 2 1 0.5 5.5461 21.3 1 0.5 8.95

FAWKES DAVID 4 1 0.25 2.773 1.55 1 0.25 0.875

KENNEALLY EDDIE 3 1 0.3333 3.697 1.7667 1 0.3333 0.8667

HUGHES JO 1 1 1 11.0921 10 1 1 5.1

ALVARADO DIANE 3 1 0.3333 3.697 3.8667 1 0.3333 2

WILKES IAN R 4 1 0.25 2.773 2.6 1 0.25 1.225

GAINES CARLA 5 1 0.2 2.2184 5.26 2 0.4 2.6

ENGLEHART JEREMIAH C2 1 0.5 5.5461 16.65 1 0.5 7.45

ONEILL DOUG F 18 1 0.0556 0.6167 0.2667 2 0.1111 0.4889

ATTFIELD ROGER L 3 1 0.3333 3.697 9.6 1 0.3333 3.1

BRADLEY WILLIAM 1 1 1 11.0921 1.7 1 1 1.3

DOLLASE WALLACE A 1 1 1 11.0921 8.2 1 1 3.6

PARBHOO SHIVANANDA 1 1 1 11.0921 14.7 1 1 6.6

PROCTOR THOMAS F 14 1 0.0714 0.792 0.2357 3 0.2143 1.1857

CASSIDY JAMES M 6 1 0.1667 1.8491 1.9 1 0.1667 0.6833

GOSDEN JOHN H M 10 1 0.1 1.1092 0.34 2 0.2 0.46

DELZANGLES MIKEL 2 1 0.5 5.5461 6.2 1 0.5 2.7

RITVO KATHERINE 2 1 0.5 5.5461 2.5 2 1 2.8

APPLEBY CHARLES 1 1 1 11.0921 7 1 1 3.4

BROWN CHAD C 22 1 0.0455 0.5047 0.4636 4 0.1818 0.7136

MEEHAN BRIAN 6 1 0.1667 1.8491 1.5833 1 0.1667 0.8167

CECIL HENRY 4 1 0.25 2.773 0.825 2 0.5 1

NOSEDA JEREMY 5 1 0.2 2.2184 1.26 1 0.2 0.6

VON HEMEL DONNIE K 1 1 1 11.0921 7.8 1 1 3.5

FRANKEL GUILLERMO 1 1 1 11.0921 18.2 1 1 8

MOTION H GRAHAM 12 1 0.0833 0.924 3.9167 2 0.1667 1.1833

SPAWR WILLIAM 3 1 0.3333 3.697 2.9667 1 0.3333 1.2333

BLOCK CHRIS M 3 1 0.3333 3.697 1.3 1 0.3333 0.6667

GOLD STANLEY I 3 1 0.3333 3.697 1.7333 1 0.3333 0.9

SHEPPARD JONATHAN E 4 1 0.25 2.773 1.1 1 0.25 0.375

KAPLAN WILLIAM A 2 1 0.5 5.5461 10.6 1 0.5 3.9

BRADLEY WILLIAM B 1 1 1 11.0921 4 1 1 2.3

BIN SUROOR SAEED 19 1 0.0526 0.5834 1.6632 1 0.0526 0.6421

HILLS CHARLES 1 1 1 11.0921 7.9 1 1 3.9


22

All races, by rider, sorted by wins

****************************************************************************************


****************************************************************************************



****************************************************************************************

SMITH MIKE E 48 9 0.1875 1.9776 1.3146 13 0.2708 0.9396


GOMEZ GARRETT K 56 7 0.125 1.3184 0.8518 15 0.2679 0.8768

VELAZQUEZ JOHN R 67 6 0.0896 0.945 0.8134 16 0.2388 0.7866

BEJARANO RAFAEL 61 6 0.0984 1.0378 0.4787 12 0.1967 0.5672

MOORE RYAN L 27 5 0.1852 1.9533 1.5111 7 0.2593 1.0074

MARAGH RAJIV 24 4 0.1667 1.7582 1.2458 4 0.1667 0.4458

ROSARIO JOEL 64 4 0.0625 0.6592 1.2141 14 0.2188 1.1016

ALBARADO ROBBY 26 4 0.1538 1.6222 3.4 6 0.2308 1.6769

TALAMO JOSEPH 32 4 0.125 1.3184 0.5719 6 0.1875 0.9094


NAKATANI COREY S 27 3 0.1111 1.1718 0.8407 5 0.1852 0.6259


ESPINOZA VICTOR 24 3 0.125 1.3184 1.1792 3 0.125 0.4708

STEVENS GARY L 11 3 0.2727 2.8762 1.1 5 0.4545 1.1091

PESLIER OLIVIER 7 2 0.2857 3.0133 0.6714 2 0.2857 0.5143

LEZCANO JOSE 14 2 0.1429 1.5072 3 5 0.3571 2.65

THERIOT JAMIE 7 2 0.2857 3.0133 2.5 2 0.2857 1.2429

GARCIA MARTIN 35 2 0.0571 0.6022 0.4286 7 0.2 0.5514


BOREL CALVIN H 14 1 0.0714 0.7531 0.4714 5 0.3571 1.8

HUGHES RICHARD 8 1 0.125 1.3184 0.9875 1 0.125 0.4875

AJTEBI AHMED 4 1 0.25 2.6368 7.9 1 0.25 3.05

MARTINEZ WILLIE 2 1 0.5 5.2736 7.35 1 0.5 3.3

PRADO EDGAR S 8 1 0.125 1.3184 5.875 1 0.125 1.3625

NAPRAVNIK ROSIE 5 1 0.2 2.1094 0.46 1 0.2 0.34

QUEALLY THOMAS P 5 1 0.2 2.1094 0.66 2 0.4 0.8

PEDROZA MARTIN A 7 1 0.1429 1.5072 6.8571 3 0.4286 3.7429

ROSE JEREMY 6 1 0.1667 1.7582 2.4833 1 0.1667 0.9833


GUTIERREZ MARIO 17 1 0.0588 0.6202 0.5176 3 0.1765 1.3647

LEYVA JUAN C 2 1 0.5 5.2736 10.6 1 0.5 3.9

GRYDER AARON T 2 1 0.5 5.2736 9.1 1 0.5 4

BRIDGMOHAN SHAUN 7 1 0.1429 1.5072 0.6143 1 0.1429 0.3571



COA EIBAR 1 1 1 10.5472 6.2 1 1 3.5

LANERIE COREY J 4 1 0.25 2.6368 0.875 1 0.25 0.5


MURTAGH JOHN PATRICK11 1 0.0909 0.9587 0.6727 1 0.0909 0.3273


BAZE TYLER 11 1 0.0909 0.9587 0.5364 3 0.2727 0.9

SANCHEZ JEFFREY 5 1 0.2 2.1094 1.04 1 0.2 0.54

BUICK WILLIAM T 11 1 0.0909 0.9587 0.5727 2 0.1818 0.4727

http://horseracingnation.ontraport.net/t?orid=3602&opid=2&sid=HANA_october_2014


23

All races, by trainer, sorted by wins

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OBRIEN AIDAN P 37 5 0.1351 1.4249 1.3946 6 0.1622 0.7757

PLETCHER TODD A 57 4 0.0702 0.7404 0.4684 12 0.2105 0.7175

MOTT WILLIAM I 21 4 0.1905 2.0092 1.4381 8 0.381 1.5714


WARD WESLEY A 15 3 0.2 2.1094 1.3667 4 0.2667 0.9133

STALL JR ALBERT M 8 3 0.375 3.9552 1.4625 3 0.375 0.6625

ROMANS DALE L 20 3 0.15 1.5821 4.745 5 0.25 2.03

SHIRREFFS JOHN A 11 3 0.2727 2.8762 2 4 0.3636 1.1364

BAFFERT BOB 47 3 0.0638 0.6729 0.3489 12 0.2553 0.717

MAKER MICHAEL J 12 2 0.1667 1.7582 2.5333 2 0.1667 1.0417


KENNEALLY EDDIE 6 2 0.3333 3.5154 1.2167 2 0.3333 0.6333

CALHOUN W BRET 5 2 0.4 4.2189 3.5 2 0.4 1.74

ONEILL DOUG F 29 2 0.069 0.7278 0.469 5 0.1724 0.6483

LOPRESTI CHARLES 5 2 0.4 4.2189 0.92 3 0.6 1.58

GAINES CARLA 6 2 0.3333 3.5154 5.4 3 0.5 2.7167

MOTION H GRAHAM 14 2 0.1429 1.5072 4.4214 3 0.2143 1.4357


CATALANO WAYNE M 9 2 0.2222 2.3436 1.7222 2 0.2222 0.8667

GLATT MARK 5 2 0.4 4.2189 1.46 2 0.4 0.9

HEAD FREDERIC 5 2 0.4 4.2189 0.94 2 0.4 0.72

MCPEEK KENNETH G 16 2 0.125 1.3184 0.3938 5 0.3125 0.9125

MITCHELL MIKE R 12 2 0.1667 1.7582 1.05 3 0.25 0.8083

PUYPE MIKE 6 2 0.3333 3.5154 1.9333 2 0.3333 0.9833


HARRINGTON MIKE 3 1 0.3333 3.5154 16 1 0.3333 6.2333


NOSEDA JEREMY 6 1 0.1667 1.7582 1.05 1 0.1667 0.5

ATTFIELD ROGER L 3 1 0.3333 3.5154 9.6 1 0.3333 3.1

MCGEE PAUL J 4 1 0.25 2.6368 0.875 2 0.5 0.925

BRADLEY WILLIAM 1 1 1 10.5472 1.7 1 1 1.3


PROCTOR THOMAS F 15 1 0.0667 0.7035 0.22 3 0.2 1.1067

RITVO KATHERINE 2 1 0.5 5.2736 2.5 2 1 2.8

CASSIDY JAMES M 7 1 0.1429 1.5072 1.6286 1 0.1429 0.5857


GOLD STANLEY I 3 1 0.3333 3.5154 1.7333 1 0.3333 0.9


CECIL HENRY 5 1 0.2 2.1094 0.66 2 0.4 0.8

BROWN CHAD C 23 1 0.0435 0.4588 0.4435 4 0.1739 0.6826

BIN SUROOR SAEED 20 1 0.05 0.5274 1.58 1 0.05 0.61

BLOCK CHRIS M 3 1 0.3333 3.5154 1.3 1 0.3333 0.6667

BONDE JEFF 9 1 0.1111 1.1718 0.4 2 0.2222 0.5667

ALVARADO DIANE 4 1 0.25 2.6368 2.9 1 0.25 1.5

FAWKES DAVID 4 1 0.25 2.6368 1.55 1 0.25 0.875


LUKAS D WAYNE 20 1 0.05 0.5274 0.82 3 0.15 0.855

GOSDEN JOHN H M 11 1 0.0909 0.9587 0.3091 2 0.1818 0.4182

MILLER PETER 15 1 0.0667 0.7035 2.5867 2 0.1333 1.1933

SPAWR WILLIAM 5 1 0.2 2.1094 1.78 1 0.2 0.74

KORINER BRIAN J 6 1 0.1667 1.7582 0.7333 1 0.1667 0.4667

REID JR ROBERT E 2 1 0.5 5.2736 21.3 1 0.5 8.95

HUGHES JO 1 1 1 10.5472 10 1 1 5.1

HILLS CHARLES 1 1 1 10.5472 7.9 1 1 3.9

BAKER JAMES E 1 1 1 10.5472 6.6 1 1 3

MULLINS JEFF 8 1 0.125 1.3184 0.7375 3 0.375 0.8875

APPLEBY CHARLES 1 1 1 10.5472 7 1 1 3.4



WILKES IAN R 4 1 0.25 2.6368 2.6 1 0.25 1.225

MEEHAN BRIAN 7 1 0.1429 1.5072 1.3571 2 0.2857 1.2857

KAPLAN WILLIAM A 2 1 0.5 5.2736 10.6 1 0.5 3.9

GOOD JOHN 1 1 1 10.5472 3.6 1 1 1.8


24

Turf races, by rider, sorted by wins ****************************************************************************************


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MOORE RYAN L 19 5 0.2632 3.0707 2.1474 7 0.3684 1.4316

VELAZQUEZ JOHN R 26 4 0.1538 1.7943 1.5577 5 0.1923 0.6769

ESPINOZA VICTOR 14 3 0.2143 2.5002 2.0214 3 0.2143 0.8071

SMITH MIKE E 17 3 0.1765 2.0592 1.0941 4 0.2353 0.6824

TALAMO JOSEPH 18 3 0.1667 1.9448 0.9111 5 0.2778 1.5389

GOMEZ GARRETT K 21 2 0.0952 1.1107 1.0476 6 0.2857 1.1286


ALBARADO ROBBY 9 2 0.2222 2.5923 8.5111 3 0.3333 3.7222

PESLIER OLIVIER 6 2 0.3333 3.8885 0.7833 2 0.3333 0.6

BEJARANO RAFAEL 25 2 0.08 0.9333 0.412 4 0.16 0.504

NAKATANI COREY S 14 1 0.0714 0.833 0.2357 2 0.1429 0.3714



HUGHES RICHARD 8 1 0.125 1.4583 0.9875 1 0.125 0.4875

PRADO EDGAR S 5 1 0.2 2.3333 9.4 1 0.2 2.18

BUICK WILLIAM T 10 1 0.1 1.1667 0.63 2 0.2 0.52

THERIOT JAMIE 3 1 0.3333 3.8885 2.6333 1 0.3333 1.3667


STEVENS GARY L 5 1 0.2 2.3333 0.66 1 0.2 0.4

QUEALLY THOMAS P 3 1 0.3333 3.8885 1.1 2 0.6667 1.3333


Turf races, by trainer, sorted by wins ****************************************************************************************


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OBRIEN AIDAN P 24 4 0.1667 1.9448 1.8417 5 0.2083 1.0458

ROMANS DALE L 8 3 0.375 4.375 11.8625 3 0.375 4.3375

HEAD FREDERIC 4 2 0.5 5.8333 1.175 2 0.5 0.9

PUYPE MIKE 2 2 1 11.6667 5.8 2 1 2.95


LOPRESTI CHARLES 3 2 0.6667 7.7782 1.5333 3 1 2.6333

PLETCHER TODD A 19 2 0.1053 1.2285 1.1579 4 0.2105 0.8368


MULLINS JEFF 8 1 0.125 1.4583 0.7375 3 0.375 0.8875

PROCTOR THOMAS F 12 1 0.0833 0.9718 0.275 3 0.25 1.3833

SHIRREFFS JOHN A 7 1 0.1429 1.6672 1.3 1 0.1429 0.5571

MEEHAN BRIAN 4 1 0.25 2.9167 2.375 1 0.25 1.225


CASSIDY JAMES M 4 1 0.25 2.9167 2.85 1 0.25 1.025

BROWN CHAD C 20 1 0.05 0.5833 0.51 4 0.2 0.785

APPLEBY CHARLES 1 1 1 11.6667 7 1 1 3.4

CECIL HENRY 3 1 0.3333 3.8885 1.1 2 0.6667 1.3333

HILLS CHARLES 1 1 1 11.6667 7.9 1 1 3.9

GLATT MARK 2 1 0.5 5.8333 2.7 1 0.5 1.55

NOSEDA JEREMY 5 1 0.2 2.3333 1.26 1 0.2 0.6

MOTION H GRAHAM 10 1 0.1 1.1667 4.7 2 0.2 1.42

GOSDEN JOHN H M 9 1 0.1111 1.2962 0.3778 2 0.2222 0.5111


WARD WESLEY A 7 1 0.1429 1.6672 1.1143 1 0.1429 0.4714

CATALANO WAYNE M 5 1 0.2 2.3333 1.42 1 0.2 0.66

ATTFIELD ROGER L 3 1 0.3333 3.8885 9.6 1 0.3333 3.1

KORINER BRIAN J 5 1 0.2 2.3333 0.88 1 0.2 0.56

CALHOUN W BRET 2 1 0.5 5.8333 3.95 1 0.5 2.05

GAINES CARLA 4 1 0.25 2.9167 1.525 2 0.5 1.675


25

Dirt races, by rider, sorted by wins ****************************************************************************************


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SMITH MIKE E 31 6 0.1935 1.9148 1.4355 9 0.2903 1.0806

GOMEZ GARRETT K 35 5 0.1429 1.4141 0.7343 9 0.2571 0.7257

MARAGH RAJIV 17 4 0.2353 2.3284 1.7588 4 0.2353 0.6294

BEJARANO RAFAEL 36 4 0.1111 1.0994 0.525 8 0.2222 0.6111

ROSARIO JOEL 43 4 0.093 0.9203 1.807 11 0.2558 1.314

GARCIA MARTIN 25 2 0.08 0.7916 0.6 7 0.28 0.772

VELAZQUEZ JOHN R 41 2 0.0488 0.4829 0.3415 11 0.2683 0.8561

STEVENS GARY L 6 2 0.3333 3.2982 1.4667 4 0.6667 1.7

ALBARADO ROBBY 17 2 0.1176 1.1637 0.6941 3 0.1765 0.5941



LEZCANO JOSE 8 2 0.25 2.4739 5.25 2 0.25 2.2625

NAKATANI COREY S 13 2 0.1538 1.5219 1.4923 3 0.2308 0.9

SANCHEZ JEFFREY 3 1 0.3333 3.2982 1.7333 1 0.3333 0.9

MARTINEZ WILLIE 2 1 0.5 4.9478 7.35 1 0.5 3.3

LEYVA JUAN C 2 1 0.5 4.9478 10.6 1 0.5 3.9

GUTIERREZ MARIO 12 1 0.0833 0.8243 0.7333 3 0.25 1.9333

GRYDER AARON T 2 1 0.5 4.9478 9.1 1 0.5 4


LANERIE COREY J 3 1 0.3333 3.2982 1.1667 1 0.3333 0.6667

BRIDGMOHAN SHAUN 6 1 0.1667 1.6496 0.7167 1 0.1667 0.4167

NAPRAVNIK ROSIE 4 1 0.25 2.4739 0.575 1 0.25 0.425

AJTEBI AHMED 2 1 0.5 4.9478 15.8 1 0.5 6.1

THERIOT JAMIE 4 1 0.25 2.4739 2.4 1 0.25 1.15

BOREL CALVIN H 14 1 0.0714 0.7065 0.4714 5 0.3571 1.8

ROSE JEREMY 5 1 0.2 1.9791 2.98 1 0.2 1.18


PEDROZA MARTIN A 5 1 0.2 1.9791 9.6 3 0.6 5.24

MURTAGH JOHN PATRICK6 1 0.1667 1.6496 1.2333 1 0.1667 0.6

BAZE TYLER 7 1 0.1429 1.4141 0.8429 1 0.1429 0.5143


TALAMO JOSEPH 14 1 0.0714 0.7065 0.1357 1 0.0714 0.1

COA EIBAR 1 1 1 9.8955 6.2 1 1 3.5

PETRO JR NICK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DELGADILLO AGAPITO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BISONO ALEX 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SUTHERLAND KRUSE CHA3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DELGADO ALBERTO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HUSBANDS PATRICK 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OROZCO IRVING 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ORTIZ JR IRAD 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

VALDIVIA JR JOSE 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 2.1

SANTANA JR RICARDO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMULLEN PATRICK J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ALVARADO JUNIOR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SERPA ANGEL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SAEZ LUIS 4 0 0 0 0 1 0.25 0.9

RAZO JR EUSEBIO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ESPINOZA VICTOR 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PUGLISI IGNACIO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LOPEZ PACO 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

QUINONEZ ALONSO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LEBRON VICTOR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GUIDRY MARK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



26

Dirt races, by trainer, sorted by wins ****************************************************************************************


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MOTT WILLIAM I 15 4 0.2667 2.6391 2.0133 7 0.4667 1.7733


BAFFERT BOB 44 3 0.0682 0.6749 0.3727 11 0.25 0.7091


STALL JR ALBERT M 7 3 0.4286 4.2412 1.6714 3 0.4286 0.7571

WARD WESLEY A 8 2 0.25 2.4739 1.5875 3 0.375 1.3

PLETCHER TODD A 38 2 0.0526 0.5205 0.1237 8 0.2105 0.6579

MCPEEK KENNETH G 11 2 0.1818 1.799 0.5727 4 0.3636 1.0273

SHIRREFFS JOHN A 4 2 0.5 4.9478 3.225 3 0.75 2.15

ONEILL DOUG F 18 2 0.1111 1.0994 0.7556 5 0.2778 1.0444


KENNEALLY EDDIE 6 2 0.3333 3.2982 1.2167 2 0.3333 0.6333

MAKER MICHAEL J 6 2 0.3333 3.2982 5.0667 2 0.3333 2.0833

MITCHELL MIKE R 6 2 0.3333 3.2982 2.1 3 0.5 1.6167

ALVARADO DIANE 4 1 0.25 2.4739 2.9 1 0.25 1.5

LUKAS D WAYNE 17 1 0.0588 0.5819 0.9647 3 0.1765 1.0059

FAWKES DAVID 4 1 0.25 2.4739 1.55 1 0.25 0.875

BAKER JAMES E 1 1 1 9.8955 6.6 1 1 3

REID JR ROBERT E 2 1 0.5 4.9478 21.3 1 0.5 8.95

CATALANO WAYNE M 4 1 0.25 2.4739 2.1 1 0.25 1.125

GLATT MARK 3 1 0.3333 3.2982 0.6333 1 0.3333 0.4667

MCGEE PAUL J 4 1 0.25 2.4739 0.875 2 0.5 0.925

MOTION H GRAHAM 4 1 0.25 2.4739 3.725 1 0.25 1.475

OBRIEN AIDAN P 13 1 0.0769 0.761 0.5692 1 0.0769 0.2769

GOLD STANLEY I 3 1 0.3333 3.2982 1.7333 1 0.3333 0.9

BIN SUROOR SAEED 15 1 0.0667 0.66 2.1067 1 0.0667 0.8133



BRADLEY WILLIAM 1 1 1 9.8955 1.7 1 1 1.3


RITVO KATHERINE 2 1 0.5 4.9478 2.5 2 1 2.8

HUGHES JO 1 1 1 9.8955 10 1 1 5.1

BONDE JEFF 8 1 0.125 1.2369 0.45 2 0.25 0.6375



SPAWR WILLIAM 5 1 0.2 1.9791 1.78 1 0.2 0.74

MILLER PETER 5 1 0.2 1.9791 7.76 1 0.2 3.22

CALHOUN W BRET 3 1 0.3333 3.2982 3.2 1 0.3333 1.5333



HARRINGTON MIKE 2 1 0.5 4.9478 24 1 0.5 9.35

GOOD JOHN 1 1 1 9.8955 3.6 1 1 1.8

KAPLAN WILLIAM A 2 1 0.5 4.9478 10.6 1 0.5 3.9

WILKES IAN R 4 1 0.25 2.4739 2.6 1 0.25 1.225

BLOCK CHRIS M 3 1 0.3333 3.2982 1.3 1 0.3333 0.6667

GAINES CARLA 2 1 0.5 4.9478 13.15 1 0.5 4.8


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